Core Insights - The 2026 strategy conference held by Yong'an Futures in Hangzhou focused on exploring wealth management strategies amid complex macroeconomic changes, emphasizing the importance of collaboration and innovation in the financial sector [1] - Yong'an Futures aims to become a leading derivatives investment bank, focusing on six key areas: deepening industry services, enhancing wealth management, accelerating internationalization, strengthening research capabilities, promoting digital transformation, and adhering to long-term investment principles [1] Macroeconomic Environment and Asset Allocation - The chief economist of Caitong Securities highlighted the divergence between nominal and real economic indicators, suggesting reliance on fiscal and monetary policies to navigate the complexities of the macroeconomic landscape [2] - A multi-asset allocation strategy was proposed, emphasizing the importance of balancing risk and return while adapting to changing economic conditions and enhancing residents' risk appetite [2] Commodity Market Outlook - The head of Yong'an Futures Research Center projected a recovery in commodity prices driven by proactive domestic policies and external demand, particularly in the non-ferrous metals sector, which is supported by AI and new energy demands [3] - Structural opportunities in the market were identified, with a focus on sectors experiencing supply disruptions and increased demand [3] Investment Philosophy and Strategies - Investment strategies discussed included a focus on "probability thinking" and "low correlation" to create resilient portfolios capable of withstanding economic cycles [2][3] - The importance of a balanced investment approach was emphasized, with a focus on redemptive assets as a foundation for navigating market fluctuations [3] Discussions on Asset Management and Technology - Roundtable discussions addressed the transition from product-centric to client-centric investment approaches, highlighting the need for collaboration and innovation in asset management [5] - The role of AI in enhancing quantitative investment processes and risk management was a key topic, with insights into how AI can redefine investment strategies [5] Future Directions - Yong'an Futures plans to reshape its research ecosystem with a focus on customer-centric services and data-driven decision-making, aiming to set a benchmark in the commodity research field [6]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of diversified asset allocation as a strategy to navigate economic cycles and mitigate risks associated with market volatility [2][3]. Group 1: Theoretical Foundation of Diversified Asset Allocation - The theoretical basis for diversified asset allocation is rooted in Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT), which suggests that diversification can reduce portfolio risk while optimizing long-term returns [2]. - The value of diversified allocation is primarily reflected in its ability to hedge market risks through low correlations among different asset classes [3][4]. Group 2: Benefits of Diversified Asset Allocation - Low correlation among assets can provide protection against market downturns; for instance, the correlation coefficient between the stock market (Wande All A Index) and bonds (China Bond - Total Wealth Index) is -0.10 [2]. - Cross-regional diversification can help mitigate systemic risks associated with a single market; historical data shows a low correlation of 0.12 between the S&P 500 and A-shares [6]. - Diversified asset allocation allows for a more measured response to declining interest rates and asset scarcity, making it a necessary choice for enhancing returns [8]. - The strategy aims to adapt to different economic cycles, with asset performance varying across recovery, expansion, stagflation, and recession phases [9][12]. Group 3: Limitations of Diversified Asset Allocation - Over-diversification may reduce the portfolio's performance during bull markets; for example, a pure equity portfolio had an annualized return of 35.53% during the A-share bull market from 2019 to 2020, compared to 25% for a balanced portfolio [13][14]. - Extreme market conditions can lead to a sudden increase in asset correlations, causing diversification to fail; during the initial outbreak of COVID-19, gold also experienced a temporary decline [13][14]. - Traditional asset allocation models heavily rely on historical data, which may become ineffective due to changing market structures; for instance, the aggressive rate hikes by the Federal Reserve in 2022 led to a rare double hit for the traditional 60/40 portfolio [15].