Group 1 - The core argument emphasizes that knowledge alone does not guarantee investment success, as many professionals fail to convert their expertise into consistent profits due to an imbalance between mindset and knowledge [1][2] - The Efficient Market Hypothesis suggests that asset prices reflect all available information, making it difficult for investors to achieve excess returns solely based on knowledge [2][3] - Historical events, such as the 2008 financial crisis, illustrate that even top financial institutions with advanced models could not avoid systemic risks, highlighting the impact of irrational behavior among individual investors [3][4] Group 2 - The investment philosophy of successful investors like Warren Buffett demonstrates that psychological factors play a crucial role, with a significant portion of investment success attributed to mindset rather than just technical knowledge [4][5] - Developing a professional investment mindset requires systematic training, including establishing a risk recognition framework and adhering to strict investment discipline [5][6] - The future of investing will favor those who can balance in-depth research with emotional control, as the ability to navigate market psychology is essential for long-term success [6]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of diversified asset allocation as a strategy to navigate economic cycles and mitigate risks associated with market volatility [2][3]. Group 1: Theoretical Foundation of Diversified Asset Allocation - The theoretical basis for diversified asset allocation is rooted in Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT), which suggests that diversification can reduce portfolio risk while optimizing long-term returns [2]. - The value of diversified allocation is primarily reflected in its ability to hedge market risks through low correlations among different asset classes [3][4]. Group 2: Benefits of Diversified Asset Allocation - Low correlation among assets can provide protection against market downturns; for instance, the correlation coefficient between the stock market (Wande All A Index) and bonds (China Bond - Total Wealth Index) is -0.10 [2]. - Cross-regional diversification can help mitigate systemic risks associated with a single market; historical data shows a low correlation of 0.12 between the S&P 500 and A-shares [6]. - Diversified asset allocation allows for a more measured response to declining interest rates and asset scarcity, making it a necessary choice for enhancing returns [8]. - The strategy aims to adapt to different economic cycles, with asset performance varying across recovery, expansion, stagflation, and recession phases [9][12]. Group 3: Limitations of Diversified Asset Allocation - Over-diversification may reduce the portfolio's performance during bull markets; for example, a pure equity portfolio had an annualized return of 35.53% during the A-share bull market from 2019 to 2020, compared to 25% for a balanced portfolio [13][14]. - Extreme market conditions can lead to a sudden increase in asset correlations, causing diversification to fail; during the initial outbreak of COVID-19, gold also experienced a temporary decline [13][14]. - Traditional asset allocation models heavily rely on historical data, which may become ineffective due to changing market structures; for instance, the aggressive rate hikes by the Federal Reserve in 2022 led to a rare double hit for the traditional 60/40 portfolio [15].