Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 12.64 CNY [5][2] Core Views - The industry is at a bottom and is expected to recover, with the company showing resilience despite recent challenges [1][10] - The company has adjusted its earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2025 to 0.31 CNY, down from the previous estimate of 1.02 CNY, with projections for 2026 and 2027 at 0.39 CNY and 0.49 CNY respectively [2] - The report highlights the company's ongoing development projects, including new production facilities that are expected to drive future growth [10] Financial Summary - Revenue for 2023 is reported at 325,112 million CNY, with a projected increase to 326,475 million CNY in 2024, and further growth to 355,946 million CNY in 2025 [4] - The company's net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to decline from 1,158 million CNY in 2023 to 724 million CNY in 2024, before rebounding to 3,131 million CNY in 2025 [4] - The gross margin is expected to improve from 11.5% in 2023 to 12.9% in 2025, while the net margin is projected to rise from 0.4% to 0.9% over the same period [4] - The report indicates a significant increase in operating profit from 1,560 million CNY in 2023 to 9,141 million CNY in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 356.1% [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 12.64 CNY, based on historical valuation methods and adjusted earnings forecasts [2][5]. Core Insights - The industry is at a bottom and is expected to recover, with the company showing resilience despite a challenging environment [1][10]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2025 has been adjusted to 0.31 CNY, down from a previous estimate of 1.02 CNY, with projections for 2026 and 2027 set at 0.39 CNY and 0.49 CNY respectively [2]. - The report highlights the impact of fluctuating oil prices and the company's strategic projects aimed at enhancing profitability and market position [10]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: The company is projected to achieve revenues of 326,475 million CNY in 2024, with a slight growth of 0.4% year-on-year, and is expected to reach 355,946 million CNY in 2025, reflecting a 9.0% increase [4]. - **Net Profit**: The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to decline to 724 million CNY in 2024, a decrease of 37.4%, but is expected to rebound significantly to 3,131 million CNY in 2025, marking a growth of 332.1% [4]. - **Profit Margins**: The gross margin is expected to improve from 11.5% in 2024 to 14.0% by 2027, indicating a positive trend in profitability [4]. - **Return on Equity (ROE)**: The ROE is projected to increase from 1.6% in 2024 to 8.9% by 2027, reflecting improved efficiency and profitability [4]. Industry Outlook - The refining industry is anticipated to see a recovery due to regulatory changes and improved operational efficiencies, particularly in the domestic market [10]. - The company is actively pursuing strategic projects in new materials and refining, which are expected to drive future growth and enhance its competitive edge [10].