Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 12.64 CNY [5][2] Core Views - The industry is at a bottom and is expected to recover, with the company showing resilience despite recent challenges [1][10] - The company has adjusted its earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2025 to 0.31 CNY, down from the previous estimate of 1.02 CNY, with projections for 2026 and 2027 at 0.39 CNY and 0.49 CNY respectively [2] - The report highlights the company's ongoing development projects, including new production facilities that are expected to drive future growth [10] Financial Summary - Revenue for 2023 is reported at 325,112 million CNY, with a projected increase to 326,475 million CNY in 2024, and further growth to 355,946 million CNY in 2025 [4] - The company's net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to decline from 1,158 million CNY in 2023 to 724 million CNY in 2024, before rebounding to 3,131 million CNY in 2025 [4] - The gross margin is expected to improve from 11.5% in 2023 to 12.9% in 2025, while the net margin is projected to rise from 0.4% to 0.9% over the same period [4] - The report indicates a significant increase in operating profit from 1,560 million CNY in 2023 to 9,141 million CNY in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 356.1% [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 12.64 CNY, based on historical valuation methods and adjusted earnings forecasts [2][5]. Core Insights - The industry is at a bottom and is expected to recover, with the company showing resilience despite a challenging environment [1][10]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2025 has been adjusted to 0.31 CNY, down from a previous estimate of 1.02 CNY, with projections for 2026 and 2027 set at 0.39 CNY and 0.49 CNY respectively [2]. - The report highlights the impact of fluctuating oil prices and the company's strategic projects aimed at enhancing profitability and market position [10]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: The company is projected to achieve revenues of 326,475 million CNY in 2024, with a slight growth of 0.4% year-on-year, and is expected to reach 355,946 million CNY in 2025, reflecting a 9.0% increase [4]. - **Net Profit**: The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to decline to 724 million CNY in 2024, a decrease of 37.4%, but is expected to rebound significantly to 3,131 million CNY in 2025, marking a growth of 332.1% [4]. - **Profit Margins**: The gross margin is expected to improve from 11.5% in 2024 to 14.0% by 2027, indicating a positive trend in profitability [4]. - **Return on Equity (ROE)**: The ROE is projected to increase from 1.6% in 2024 to 8.9% by 2027, reflecting improved efficiency and profitability [4]. Industry Outlook - The refining industry is anticipated to see a recovery due to regulatory changes and improved operational efficiencies, particularly in the domestic market [10]. - The company is actively pursuing strategic projects in new materials and refining, which are expected to drive future growth and enhance its competitive edge [10].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" with a target price of 8.99 RMB [8][9]. Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 326.5 billion RMB for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 0.4%, but the net profit attributable to shareholders was only 720 million RMB, a decrease of 37.4% year-on-year [1][5]. - The fourth quarter of 2024 saw a revenue of 81.3 billion RMB, with a net loss of 150 million RMB, attributed to high oil prices affecting gross margins [1][2]. - The report anticipates a slow recovery in the refining and polyester industry, with expected net profits of 3.11 billion RMB, 4.20 billion RMB, and 4.74 billion RMB for 2025 to 2027, respectively [5][27]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company’s refining and chemical business revenue decreased by 3.3% year-on-year to 117.9 billion RMB, while the chemical segment remained flat at 121.8 billion RMB [2]. - The gross margin for the refining segment fell by 2.7 percentage points to 17.6%, while the chemical segment saw an increase of 3.4 percentage points to 13.6% [2]. - The company’s total inventory decreased by 17.2 billion RMB to 44.6 billion RMB [2]. Market Conditions - The average price differentials for refined products narrowed in 2024 compared to 2023, indicating a challenging market environment [3]. - The report notes that the polyester industry is still awaiting improvement in market conditions, with price and profit levels contracting since Q2 2025 [3]. Strategic Developments - The company has accelerated its differentiated layout in the industrial chain, with new production facilities for high-end materials coming online, including a 1,000-ton α-olefin pilot plant and a 150,000-ton multifunctional polyester chip project [4]. - The total construction in progress increased by 2.2 billion RMB year-on-year to 44 billion RMB, reflecting ongoing investments in new materials and high-performance resin projects [4]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 0.31 RMB, 0.41 RMB, and 0.47 RMB, respectively [5][27]. - The report adjusts the target price to 8.99 RMB based on a 29x price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for 2025, down from a previous estimate of 10.80 RMB [5].