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深度专题 | 美国通胀风险有多大?——2026年美国通胀展望(申万宏观·赵伟团队)
申万宏源宏观· 2026-01-21 16:04
"对等关税"落地以来,美国再通胀的风险可控,至今尚未成为货币政策和资本市场的主要矛盾。关税的通 胀效应为何持续低于预期、会否成为2026年"被低估"的风险? 一、对等关税的"通胀效应":这次为何系统性低于预期? 2025年4月以来,美国通胀开始反弹,但读数持续弱于预期。 2025年,美国"再通胀"的动力主要来自于核心 商品分项,而核心服务继续延续降温态势。2025年12月,美国CPI同比仅为2.7%,4月低点为2.3%;环比角 度来看,2025年4月以来,美国通胀环比多数弱于预期。 关税的通胀效应有迹可循,但传导路径并非脉冲式的,而是阶梯式的。 从"超额"通胀及季节性来看,关税 的通胀效应有迹可循;但是,关税的传导路径并非脉冲式的,Cavallo(2025)指出,关税对美国CPI的推升 幅度约为0.65个百分点。近几月以来,关税传导进度甚至有所停滞。 关税传导的阶梯特征与关税税率的路径有关。 截止到2025年10月,美国有效关税税率仅为12.4%,低于 15.7%的理论税率。运输时滞、抢进口因素一度阻碍有效税率提升,但关税豁免、进口国别转换或限制税率 提升空间。剔除国别转换因素后,有效税率提升空间仅为2个百分 ...
立德教育:黑龙江工商学院与海尔就售后回租租赁资产(海尔)订立售后回租合同(海尔)及咨询服务合同(海尔)
智通财经网· 2025-12-18 10:19
Core Viewpoint - The announcement by Lide Education (01449) regarding a sale and leaseback agreement with Haier for assets valued at RMB 20 million and total lease payments of RMB 21.9781 million highlights a strategic move to secure financial resources for campus construction and operational needs without affecting current operations [1] Group 1: Financial Arrangement - The sale and leaseback contract involves various assets including computers, projectors, audio equipment, multimedia devices, blackboards, network switches, routers, books, water dispensers, and sofas [1] - The financing lease arrangement allows the company to obtain financial resources while maintaining operational continuity, as the assets will be immediately leased back to the company [1] - The arrangement does not transfer ownership or usage rights of the assets to Haier, and according to international financial reporting standards, it does not constitute an asset sale, thus no gains or losses will be recorded in the company's income statement [1] Group 2: Accounting Treatment - At the end of the lease term, the company will pay a nominal retention fee to reclaim the leased assets, making the arrangement similar to a secured loan from an accounting perspective [1]
立德教育:黑龙江工商学院订立融资租赁协议
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-12-05 14:44
Core Viewpoint - The company, Lide Education (01449), has entered into a financing lease agreement with Haitong Hengxin for educational equipment and platforms, indicating a strategic move to enhance its educational offerings and infrastructure [1] Group 1: Financing Lease Agreement - The financing lease agreement was signed on December 5, 2025, between Heilongjiang Industrial and Commercial College (the company's comprehensive affiliated entity) as the lessee and Haitong Hengxin as the lessor [1] - The lease assets include teaching electronic devices, multimedia equipment, training platforms, experimental models, experimental platforms, and experimental equipment, which are essential for modern educational practices [1]
立德教育(01449):黑龙江工商学院订立融资租赁协议
智通财经网· 2025-12-05 14:30
Core Viewpoint - The company, Lide Education (01449), has entered into a financing lease agreement with Haitong Hengxin for various educational equipment and platforms, indicating a strategic move to enhance its educational offerings and infrastructure [1] Group 1: Financing Lease Agreement - The financing lease agreement is set to be effective on December 5, 2025, between Heilongjiang Industrial College (the company's comprehensive affiliated entity) as the lessee and Haitong Hengxin as the lessor [1] - The leased assets include teaching electronic devices, multimedia equipment, training platforms, experimental models, experimental platforms, and experimental equipment, which are essential for modern educational practices [1]