95岁的巴菲特在（2025年12月31日）正式交出了权杖，留下了一个3810亿美元的"现金怪物"和一位被误读的"接班人"。 很多人在缅怀"股神"的浪漫，却忽视了阿贝尔手里那把磨得锃亮的"工业镰刀"。 这恐将不再是那个喝可乐的伯克希尔，而是一台冰冷、高效、甚至嗜血的"资源收割机"。 01 基因突变 今天这事一句话： 伯克希尔不是变天了，是基因突变了。 你要记住一个数字：3810亿。 这是巴菲特留给阿贝尔的"弹药"，美金。 更恐怖的是，这个数字已经超过了伯克希尔持有的股票总市值（2830亿美元）。 伯克希尔从"买品牌"到"控资源" → 从"美国国运"到"全球套利" → 从"赚认知的钱"到"赚生存的钱"。 在这个新时代，你要是还抱着"学股神炒股"的老黄历，不仅喝不到汤，连碗都得被砸了。 02 顶级猎手伪装 江湖上都在传，63岁的阿贝尔是个温和的加拿大人，是个听话的执行者。 2000 年加入伯克希尔能源板块，2018 年起统管非保险业务，2021 年被明确为唯一继任者. 巴菲特评价其"精力水平 10 小时完成量显著高于我"，并公开称"公司越早交给他越好" 能被巴菲特这种阅人无数的老狐狸选中的人，怎么可能是只小白兔？ ...

最新数据显示，2025年前11个月，浙江制造业投资同比增长9.1%，其中，民间投资持续回暖向好。 新年伊始，在杭州"中国视谷"，占地30亩的德施曼科技智能终端研发生产制造基地正在抓紧建设，确保今年夏天如期投产。看准杭州打造万亿级视觉智能产 业集群的新风口，目前企业已投入2亿元，项目总投资预计将达到10亿元。 浙江德施曼科技智能股份有限公司基建项目副总监 俞建国：这边有很多AI产业，高端的计算（资源）、算法能力，我们可以把它做成一个融合。 行业龙头企业加码布局，折射浙江制造业民间投资进一步向高科技、高附加值等产业领域聚焦的深刻变化。数据显示，全省智能物联、新能源汽车及零部 件、集成电路等11个集群投资完成率超100%。受此拉动，2025年前11个月，全省制造业投资同比增长9.1%。其中工业民间投资回暖向好态势明显，同比增 长10.7%，增长贡献率达71.5%。 省产业发展中心项目管理部研究员 李文浩：民间投资的嗅觉还是比较灵敏的，它是在做一些逆周期布局和投资。从目前的情况来看，民间投资在我们整个 制造业投资的盘子上，它占到60%以上。民间投资回暖之后，我们制造业投资也相应有昂扬向上的态势。 民间投资"敢投、愿投 ...

2025年，由美国单方面发起的"关税战"在全球贸易版图中不断扩散，对中国外贸形成持续冲击。尤其是 今年4月，美国所谓"对等关税"政策落地后，关税税率一度飙升至145%，作为我国外贸第一大省的广东 首当其冲，出口企业在订单、利润、供应链乃至产业生态层面均承受巨大压力。 半年前，东方卫视记者曾走访多家受冲击的广东外贸企业。2025年年底，记者重返东莞、深圳等地，记 录企业在变局中的应对、调整与突围。 在传统市场承压的同时，新兴市场正在成为新的增长引擎。深圳一家专注东南亚市场的跨境电商平台， 在印尼等共建"一带一路"国家的3C和家居产品线上销量持续领跑。公司总经理许龙华表示，东盟市场 人口结构年轻、消费潜力大，直播电商等新业态发展迅速，已取代欧美市场，成为最重要的增长来源。 不过，不确定性仍在延续。记者在采访中了解到，往年第四季度通常是外贸备货旺季，但2025年整体表 现不及预期。供应链企业数据显示，尽管第四季度柜量有所回暖，但仍比2024年同期下降约10%。不少 企业对未来市场保持谨慎态度，以"稳"为主成为共识。 在东莞一家包装企业的车间里，两台全自动化新设备正在高速运转。与半年前相比，企业负责人俞琳更 加忙碌， ...

本报（chinatimes.net.cn）记者卢晓 北京报道 出生于1950年的中国台湾商人郭台铭，最为人熟知的身份是代工帝国富士康的掌舵人，很少有人能想起 他曾经的面板野心。 2012年6月，富士康母公司鸿海掷出408亿元收购"液晶之父"夏普，面对股东对于收购后产生浮亏的激动 质疑，时任鸿海董事长郭台铭曾坚定地说，"我用生命担保一定成功！" 对抗韩国的三星电子（下称"三星"），是郭台铭"用生命担保"这桩联姻的关键原因之一。无论是上游的 面板、存储芯片还是下游的手机、电视，长期全球排名第一的三星，像个无处不在的巨人，拦在众多消 费电子企业前面。 但事后看，这场收购并没能实现郭台铭期待的"1+1>5"的协同效应。现在，他还缺席了由"敌人"三星掀 起的面板行业最新竞争：2025年年底，在关乎未来的OLED8.6代线全球竞赛中，目前只有三星、京东 方、TCL和维信诺四个玩家。 参与感，哪个赛场都重要，更遑论在面板行业豪赌未来的巨额投资中缺席。回望过去，起伏经济浪潮与 面板冰冷周期的每次交叉，都成为面板行业的分化洗牌时刻。人走人留，恰如此时：继手握全球液晶市 场七成话语权后，OLED8.6代线时代，中国大陆面板企业在 ...

记者 李蕾 今年以来，国际金价屡创新高，一度逼近4400美元的历史高点。全球投资者扎堆涌入、机构纷纷上调预期，俨然一 幅"全民炒金"图景。 然而鲜少有人知晓，2020年国际金价在1500美元上下震荡时，一家以早期科技投资为标签的机构早已悄然出手，在金价 尚未突破关键阻力位的阶段精准布局黄金赛道，更成功锁定"四川黄金"这一标的。 如今，四川黄金股价已较发行价实现数倍增长，而国际金价也早已脱离当年的震荡区间，印证了这场逆周期布局的前瞻 性。 这家机构，就是2007年成立的雷石投资。 雷石的掌舵者王宇，是一个颇为"学院派"的"实干家"。作为一名投资人，他在经济学博士的积淀之上，又叩开物理学博 士的大门，以跨学科的深度钻研为认知筑基；为了更接近这个世界的真实，他的办公室书架上摆满哲学典籍、历史长卷 和各类小说，在多元阅读中拆解真实逻辑的脉络。 这份对认知的深耕，让他得以跳出市场的浮躁洪流，始终带领雷石锚定方向，用一套贯穿宏观趋势、产业本质与认知落 地的投资方法论，在"人少的地方"发掘确定性机会。 最近，我们和王宇进行了一场深度对话，希望借此拆解这场逆周期投资的底层逻辑：为何在市场分歧中笃定黄金牛市起 点？如何从宏观判 ...

Group 1 - Yangtze River Maritime Development Co., Ltd. successfully listed on the Singapore Stock Exchange on November 18, with an issue price of 0.60 SGD, raising at least 5.2 million SGD (approximately 28.42 million RMB) [1] - The company is a spin-off from Yangtze River Financial Holdings Co., Ltd., allowing both entities to operate as independent platforms focusing on differentiated strategies and capital utilization [1] - Yangtze River Maritime aims to leverage its proprietary project reserves and global network to seize investment opportunities in the shipping cycle, creating sustainable value for stakeholders [1][2] Group 2 - Yangtze River Maritime has a fleet of 84 vessels (including those under construction) with a total investment exceeding 1 billion USD, comprising 69 equity investment vessels, 4 leased vessels, and 11 agency vessels [2] - The company is committed to a professional, differentiated, and international approach in maritime financial services, enhancing its influence and brand value in the global maritime financial market [2] - Future plans include strengthening team building, innovating business models, and focusing on long-term investments in clean energy vessels, shipyards, and terminals, establishing a "maritime development platform" [2]

Core Insights - Washington H. Soul Pattinson, known as "Australia's Berkshire Hathaway," is the only publicly listed family office in Australia, established in the late 19th century and has a history of consistent dividend payments and strong returns for shareholders [1][2][3] Company Overview - Soul Patts has been listed since 1903 and has never missed a dividend payment, increasing dividends for 26 consecutive years, delivering an annualized return of 13.7% over the past 25 years [1][2] - The company is characterized by a long-term investment philosophy, focusing on stability and low leverage, with a diversified portfolio across various sectors including coal, telecommunications, and pharmaceuticals [4][12] Investment Philosophy - Soul Patts operates with a "permanent capital" model, allowing it to hold assets patiently during market downturns without redemption pressure, similar to Berkshire Hathaway [5][26] - The company emphasizes long-term capital allocation and value discipline, avoiding rigid asset allocation and instead dynamically seeking opportunities based on valuation discrepancies [7][8] Governance and Management - The governance structure of Soul Patts is characterized by a family-led approach with a focus on trust and long-term relationships, ensuring continuity across generations [14][20] - The current leadership, including CEO Todd Barlow, promotes a culture of transparency and open communication, which helps maintain a stable and motivated team [23][25] Historical Context - Soul Patts has evolved from a pharmacy business to a diversified investment group, with significant holdings in companies like Brickworks and TPG Telecom, and has adapted its strategy over time to focus on high-dividend, low-leverage investments [12][13] - The company has undergone significant structural changes, including a recent merger with Brickworks, aimed at modernizing governance and enhancing capital flexibility [13] Financial Performance - As of September 2025, Soul Patts' physical assets are valued at approximately AUD 2.9 billion, with a focus on industrial real estate and agricultural investments [28] - The company has increased its allocation to credit and private equity, achieving internal rates of return of around 15% in credit and approximately 20% in private equity over the past three years [28][29]

- The counter-cyclical allocation model predicts macroeconomic environments using credit spreads and term spreads, dividing them into Growth, Inflation, and Slowdown stages. For Q3 2025, the model forecasted an Inflation environment, allocating assets as follows: CSI 300 (20%), CSI 2000 (0%), Nanhua Commodity Index (30%), and ChinaBond Treasury Total Wealth Index (50%). The respective returns were 17.90%, 17.24%, 3.88%, and -1.28%[7][8] - The macro momentum monthly allocation signal for October 2025 indicates a positive signal for the stock market, driven by positive signals from economic growth and risk sentiment factors[9][10] - The composite industry trend factor, constructed from industry-level indicators, serves as a timing signal for market trends. When the factor exceeds a certain threshold, it signals potential market rallies, while a sharp drop near the peak triggers a sell signal. From January 2015 to September 2025, the cumulative return of the composite industry trend factor portfolio was 122.66%, with an excess return of 48.42%. As of September 2025, the factor value was -0.30, showing a decline but maintaining a positive signal[4][17][19] - The bond market timing signal for October 2025 shows a negative overall signal, influenced by factors such as PMI, inflation indicators (CRB Index, CPI), exchange rates (CFETS RMB Index, USD midpoint), interest rates (ChinaBond Treasury yields for 2, 5, and 10 years), and risk sentiment factors[13] - The gold market timing signal for October 2025 is positive, supported by fundamental and technical factors. Positive signals include actual interest rates, London gold moving averages (10-month and 20-month), global negative-yielding debt scale, and US M2. Negative signals include expected inflation and CFTC swap dealer positions[13][14]

Core Viewpoint - China Shipbuilding Group (Hong Kong) Shipping Leasing Co., Ltd. reported a stable operational performance in the first half of 2025, with a slight increase in revenue but a decline in net profit primarily due to tax policy changes [1] Financial Performance - The company achieved a revenue of HKD 2.018 billion, up 2.7% year-on-year, while net profit was HKD 1.151 billion, down 16.7% [1] - As of June 30, 2025, the average return on equity was 15.4%, and the average return on assets was 5.4%, both showing a growth of 0.3 percentage points compared to the end of 2024 [1] - Total assets amounted to HKD 42.201 billion, with net assets of HKD 14.704 billion, reflecting a 2.8% increase from the end of 2024 [1] - The debt-to-asset ratio was maintained at 65.2%, a decrease of 2.3 percentage points from the end of 2024 [1] - Earnings per share were HKD 0.179, and an interim dividend of HKD 0.05 per share was declared [1] Fleet Management - The company maintained a stable fleet size, with a total of 143 vessels as of June 30, 2025, including 121 operational vessels and 22 under construction [2] - The average age of operational vessels is approximately 4.13 years, with an average remaining lease term of 7.64 years for contracts longer than one year [2] - The company signed new orders for six vessels worth USD 308 million, all of which are mid-to-high-end types, including four MR tankers and two methanol dual-fuel MR tankers [2] Financial Strategy - The company implemented a cross-currency financing strategy to manage funding costs, achieving a financing cost of 3.1%, down 40 basis points from the beginning of the year [3] - The company’s interest-bearing debt was approximately HKD 25.55 billion, a decrease of 7.4% from the end of 2024 [3] - The company is actively engaging with financial institutions to expand financing channels and has made progress on a RMB 10 billion credit framework agreement with China Shipbuilding Finance [3] Risk Management and ESG - The company is enhancing its risk management framework, focusing on identifying and mitigating risks across various categories [4] - It has been recognized in the S&P Global "Sustainable Development Yearbook (China Edition) 2025," highlighting its commitment to ESG principles [4] - The company has been listed on Fortune's China ESG Influence List for three consecutive years, indicating effective ESG governance [4] Future Outlook - The company plans to continue expanding its ship leasing business and manage asset risks effectively in the second half of 2025 [5][6] - It aims to control financing costs further and has set a framework for a USD 3 billion medium-term note program [6]

Core Viewpoint - China Shipbuilding Group (Hong Kong) Shipping Leasing Co., Ltd. reported a stable operational performance in the first half of 2025, with a slight increase in revenue but a decline in net profit primarily due to tax policy changes [1] Financial Performance - The company achieved a revenue of HKD 2.018 billion, up 2.7% year-on-year, while net profit was HKD 1.151 billion, down 16.7% [1] - As of June 30, 2025, the average return on equity was 15.4%, and the average return on assets was 5.4%, both showing a growth of 0.3 percentage points compared to the end of 2024 [1] - Total assets amounted to HKD 42.201 billion, with net assets of HKD 14.704 billion, reflecting a 2.8% increase from the end of 2024 [1] - The debt-to-asset ratio was maintained at 65.2%, a decrease of 2.3 percentage points from the end of 2024 [1] - Earnings per share were HKD 0.179, and an interim dividend of HKD 0.05 per share was declared [1] Fleet Management - The company maintained a stable fleet size, with a total of 143 vessels as of June 30, 2025, including 121 operational vessels and 22 under construction [2] - The average age of operational vessels was approximately 4.13 years, with an average remaining lease term of 7.64 years for contracts longer than one year [2] - The fleet structure is shifting towards high-value, younger vessels, with 100% of new orders being mid-to-high-end ship types, including MR tankers and methanol dual-fuel MR tankers [2] Financial Management - The company implemented a cross-currency financing strategy, reducing the overall financing cost to 3.1%, down 40 basis points from the beginning of the year [3] - As of June 30, 2025, interest-bearing liabilities were approximately HKD 25.55 billion, a decrease of 7.4% from the end of 2024 [3] - The company is actively engaging with financial institutions to expand financing channels and has initiated a RMB 10 billion credit framework agreement with China Ship Financial [3] Risk Management and ESG - The company is enhancing its risk management framework, focusing on identifying and mitigating risks associated with asset management and compliance [4] - It has been recognized in the S&P Global "Sustainable Development Yearbook (China Edition) 2025," highlighting its commitment to ESG principles [4] Future Outlook - The company plans to continue expanding its ship leasing business and manage asset risks effectively in the second half of 2025 [5][6] - Key initiatives include securing new ship orders, enhancing asset risk management, and controlling financing costs through various strategies [6]