摩根大通发表研报指，奈飞第三季业绩及第四季展望整体稳健，但较近期季度的上行空间有限。摩通认 为，奈飞下半年缺乏收入上行空间，尽管广告收入略超预期，但部分被外汇波动和《鱿鱼游戏》后亚太 地区高流失率所抵销。而亚太及拉美地区外汇收入增长放缓至20%，较第二季各减少约300个基点。 摩通维持对奈飞的"中性"评级，目标价从1300美元降至1275美元；持续预期公司广告收入将于今年翻 倍，估计从2024年的约15亿美元增至2025年的约30亿美元。 ...

奈飞(NFLX.US)盘后跌逾6%，报1163.28美元。奈飞第三季度营收达115.1亿美元，同比增长17.2%；预计第四季度营收为119.6亿美元；第三季度净利润为 25.47亿美元，去年同期为23.64亿美元；第三季度每股收益5.87美元。公司预计全年营收451亿美元，公司原本预计448亿-452亿美元。 ...

Market Overview - US stock market showed mixed results, with the Dow Jones reaching a new high driven by corporate earnings, while tech and small-cap stocks faced pressure due to trade uncertainties, leading to a decline in the Nasdaq [3] - Apple saw a three-day rise, hitting a new high before a slight retreat, closing up 0.2%. General Motors surged 14.8% post-earnings, and Coca-Cola rose 4%. Meme stock Beyond Meat skyrocketed 146%, accumulating a three-day gain of approximately 600% [3] - Gold and silver experienced significant declines, with gold dropping over 5.7%, marking its largest single-day drop since 2013, and silver falling nearly 8% [3] - Crude oil prices rose over 1.2% due to the Trump administration's commitment to purchase 1 million barrels of strategic oil reserves [3] Key Corporate Earnings - Pop Mart reported a Q3 revenue increase of 245%-250% year-on-year, with overseas revenue growing by 365%-370% [7] - Netflix's Q3 earnings fell short of expectations due to tax issues in Brazil, leading to a downward revision of its full-year guidance, with shares dropping 7% in after-hours trading [8] - L'Oréal's Q3 sales also missed expectations, with a notable recovery in high-end demand in China but disappointing performance in North America, causing a significant drop in stock price [9] - General Motors' Q3 adjusted EBIT was $3.4 billion, down 18% year-on-year but exceeding analyst expectations, leading to a pre-market stock increase of over 9% [31] Industry Insights - The zinc market is experiencing a "short squeeze," with available inventory dropping to less than one day's demand, causing spot premiums to soar to their highest levels since 1997 [18] - OpenAI launched the AI browser ChatGPT Atlas, prompting a decline in Google's stock [19] - Samsung reported positive progress in its 2nm chip yield, raising its year-end target from 50% to 70% [20] - The AI storage chip market is entering a strong upward cycle due to surging demand and supply constraints, with DRAM inventory dropping to below two weeks [30] Macro Trends - The US banking sector is facing challenges, with regional banks like Western Alliance Bancorp reporting a 27% year-on-year profit increase, alleviating some investor concerns [22] - The Japanese stock market reached new highs following the election of Fumio Kishida as the first female Prime Minister, although investors are cautious about the sustainability of this rally [26] - The digital currency landscape is evolving, with discussions around its strategic military functions in modern warfare [34]

元。 格隆汇10月22日｜奈飞(NFLX.US)盘后跌逾6%，报1163.28美元。奈飞第三季度营收达115.1亿美元，同 比增长17.2%；预计第四季度营收为119.6亿美元；第三季度营业利润为28.6亿美元，低于市场预期的 28.8亿美元；第三季度每股收益5.87美元。公司预计全年营收451亿美元，公司原本预计448亿-452亿美 ...

财报公布后，小幅收涨逾0.2%的奈飞股价盘后跳水，盘后跌幅一度达7.5%。奈飞股价曾在6月30日收创 历史新高，逼近1340美元，此后震荡下行，7月下旬公布的二季度财报未能提振股价，到本周二收盘， 已较收盘纪录高位跌去7%以上。 风险提示及免责条款 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何 意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。 美国流媒体巨头奈飞（Netflix）三季度业绩"爆冷"：虽然服务涨价和会员强劲增长推动公司的广告收入 创新高，但与巴西税务部门的税务纠纷带来意外的支出，公司盈利远不及预期，并且由此下调了全年的 利润率指引。 三季度奈飞的营收大致符合预期，保持两位数增长，但每股收益（EPS）和净利润都远不及华尔街预 期。奈飞未大幅调整全年营收指引，但小幅下调营业利润率指引。 ...

格隆汇10月3日｜花旗集团将奈飞目标价从1295美元下调至1280美元。 ...

Group 1 - The core sentiment in the options market for Netflix (NFLX.US) indicates a cautious outlook, with total derivatives trading volume reaching 164,872 contracts, which is 44.8% higher than the average daily volume over the past month [1] - The put/call ratio stands at approximately 0.875, suggesting a slight bullish sentiment, but net trading sentiment leans towards bearish with nearly $4.3 million involved [1] - Despite a recent decline of nearly 3% since August 18 and a 10% drop over the past six months, Netflix's stock has maintained a 79% increase over the past 52 weeks, indicating potential for a rebound [1] Group 2 - Quantitative models suggest that the median price range for Netflix over the next 10 weeks is between $1,256.73 and $1,318.80, with potential downside adjustments to $1,186.66 to $1,290.10 due to market reversal signals [2] - Two bullish call spread strategies are highlighted: one with a strike price of $1,242.50/$1,250 that could yield a maximum return of 150% if the stock rises by 3.46% in three weeks, and another with a strike price of $1,280/$1,290 that has a maximum return close to 160% but requires a higher initial cost [4] - The current options activity, while not a strong bullish signal, combined with the stock's recent pullback and long-term growth potential, may provide a cautious entry point for investors [4]

Group 1 - Investment bank Piper Sandler raised Netflix's target stock price from $1400 to $1500 [1] - Netflix reported second-quarter revenue of $11.08 billion, slightly exceeding expectations [1]

Core Insights - Netflix reported Q2 2025 earnings that exceeded investor expectations, with revenue reaching $11.08 billion, a year-over-year increase of 15.9% [1][4] - The company raised its full-year revenue guidance, indicating strong growth prospects despite anticipated lower operating margins in the second half of the year due to increased content amortization and marketing costs [1][11] Financial Performance - Revenue: Q2 revenue was $11.08 billion, up 15.9% year-over-year, slightly above Wall Street's expectation of $11.07 billion, driven by membership growth and advertising revenue [1][4] - Operating Income: Q2 operating income was $3.775 billion, with an operating margin of 34.1%, up from 27% in the same quarter last year [4][5] - Net Income: Q2 net income reached $3.125 billion, a significant increase of 45.6% year-over-year [4][5] - Earnings Per Share: Diluted EPS was $7.19, up 47% year-over-year, surpassing the market expectation of $7.08 [4][5] - Free Cash Flow: Q2 free cash flow was $2.3 billion, up from $1.2 billion in the same quarter last year, with full-year free cash flow guidance raised to $8 billion to $8.5 billion [4][5] Regional Performance - Revenue growth was strong across all regions, with Asia-Pacific leading at 24% growth, followed by EMEA at 18% and North America at 15% [7][8] - In North America, revenue growth accelerated from just over 9% in Q1 to 15% in Q2, despite price increases implemented in January [7][8] Future Outlook - The company raised its 2025 revenue forecast from $43.5 billion to $44.8 billion to $45.2 billion, with Q3 revenue expected to be $11.53 billion, above Wall Street's estimate [11] - Netflix anticipates its advertising revenue to double this year following the rollout of its advertising technology suite [11]

Core Insights - Netflix continues to thrive while other media companies are divesting assets and cutting costs, as evidenced by its Q2 financial results which exceeded investor expectations [1] - The company has raised its full-year revenue and profit margin guidance, projecting 2025 revenue between $44.8 billion and $45.2 billion, up from previous estimates [2] Financial Performance - Q2 revenue increased by 15.9% year-over-year to $11.08 billion, surpassing analyst expectations of $11.06 billion [1] - Operating profit reached $3.775 billion, up from $2.603 billion in the same period last year, with an operating margin of 34.1% compared to 27.2% a year ago [1] - Diluted earnings per share were $7.19, exceeding the consensus estimate of $7.08 and up from $4.88 a year earlier [1] Content Strategy - The company launched several popular series in Q2, including "Ginny & Georgia" Season 3 and the final season of "Squid Game," which contributed to its performance during a typically slow season [1] - Upcoming content includes new seasons of "Stranger Things" and "Wednesday," as well as the film "Caddyshack 2," which is expected to drive further engagement [2] Market Position and Competition - Netflix faces intensified competition for viewer attention, with no growth in its U.S. TV viewing share over the past year [2] - The company has stopped disclosing subscriber numbers, focusing instead on traditional metrics like revenue and profit, with approximately 16% of revenue growth attributed to user growth, higher subscription prices, and increased ad revenue [1][2] - Netflix's domestic revenue grew by 15% in Q2 despite a slowdown in user growth, aided by recent price increases [2] Future Outlook - The company anticipates a full-year net profit exceeding $10 billion for the first time, driven by sales growth from favorable exchange rates and a strong content lineup [2] - Netflix is exploring potential acquisitions to expand market share but prefers internal growth strategies, with management expecting increased user engagement in the second half of the year [3]