再论寒武纪 20250822 摘要 Deepseek V3.1 通过整合模型和优化数据格式（如 FP8 和 UE8M0 FP8）提升了 AI 训练效率，降低了算力消耗，并在某些方面超越了 GPT-5，体现了其在技术上的谨慎和创新。 字节跳动作为国内最大的 AI 芯片采购商，预计 2025 年投入 600 亿元， 2026 年可能达到 800 亿元，其采购策略对国内 AI 芯片市场格局产生重 要影响，尤其是在英伟达产品受限的情况下。 英伟达 2026 年将主要提供 B30 和 B40 芯片，但由于互联能力和 HBM 等问题，可能难以满足字节跳动的需求，导致其市场份额下降，为国产 AI 芯片提供了机会。 寒武纪已与字节跳动进行大规模适配，且优先于其他厂商，这使其在字 节跳动未来的采购中占据有利地位，有望显著提升其收入规模。 寒武纪向大客户提供 690 芯片样品测试结果良好，预计正式流片后将开 始大规模采购，若能获得字节跳动 800 亿采购中的一部分，收入有望从 百亿级别增长至数百亿级别。 Q&A 请介绍一下 Deepseek V3.1 版本的发布及其特点。 Deepseek 于昨日发布了 V3.1 版本，这一版本 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the significant rise of Hanwang (寒王) in the semiconductor market, leading to a surge in domestic chip stocks and a notable increase in the Science and Technology Innovation Semiconductor Index by nearly 4% [2][3] - Hanwang's recent surge is attributed to several rumors, including a large order for 500,000 units from Jingshuo, which could lead to projected revenues of 30-40 billion in 2026 [3] - Another rumor suggests that SMIC's production capacity is expected to double to 2,000 wafers per month, which could positively impact Hanwang's supply chain and production capabilities [3][4] Group 2 - On the product side, Hanwang's new chip, the 690, is set to be released soon, with performance expected to reach 80% of the H100, making it the strongest domestic chip [4] - The production capacity at SMIC is improving, with expectations of reaching nearly 2,000 wafers per month, allowing for a significant increase in the output of Hanwang's chips [4][5] - Despite a challenging Q2 due to production yield issues and limited capacity, the outlook for the second half of the year is optimistic, with expectations of strong performance [5] Group 3 - The long-term logic of the semiconductor industry remains positive, driven by continuous innovation and the ongoing demand for AI applications, which is expected to further accelerate the replacement cycle of terminal products [7][8] - Domestic semiconductor companies are achieving technological breakthroughs, which will enhance their market share both domestically and globally [10] - The semiconductor industry is characterized by strong cyclicality, indicating that while there are opportunities for significant gains, there are also risks of substantial declines [11][12]