2025 年 10 月 31 日 牧原股份 (002714) 上 市 公 司 农林牧渔 ——成本稳步下降优势显著，生猪龙头稳健高质量发展 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 买入（维持） | 市场数据： | 2025 年 10 月 30 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | 49.68 | | 一年内最高/最低（元） | 59.68/35.72 | | 市净率 | 3.5 | | 股息率%（分红/股价） | 4.70 | | 流通 A 股市值（百万元） | 189,310 | | 上证指数/深证成指 | 3,986.90/13,532.13 | | 注："股息率"以最近一年已公布分红计算 | | | 基础数据: | 2025 年 09 月 30 日 | | --- | --- | | 每股净资产（元） | 13.89 | | 资产负债率% | 55.50 | | 总股本/流通 A 股（百万） | 5,463/3,811 | | 流通 B 股/H 股（百万） | -/- | 一年内股价与大盘对比走势： 10-30 11-30 12-31 01-31 02-28 03-31 04-30 05-31 ...

Core Insights - Longda Food, once favored by the capital market as a "pre-made food concept stock," is currently facing dual challenges of sluggish main business growth and obstacles in strategic transformation [1] - The company's H1 2025 report reveals a decline in both revenue and net profit, with total revenue at 4.975 billion yuan, down 1.38% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to shareholders at 35.1687 million yuan, down 39.52% year-on-year [1] Business Structure Challenges - Longda Food's core challenge lies in its imbalanced business structure, heavily reliant on the low-margin slaughtering business, which, despite its large revenue scale, contributes minimally to profits [2] - The pre-made food segment, positioned as a future growth engine, has faced significant revenue declines during the reporting period, indicating that the strategic transformation is more difficult than anticipated [2] - The pre-made food industry is characterized by intense competition, with a market landscape that shows insufficient consumer recognition despite policy support and capital empowerment [2] Financial Pressure and Debt Risks - The significant increase in financial expenses has further compressed the already limited profit margins, with interest burdens becoming a key factor dragging down overall performance [3] - The company faces notable short-term debt pressure, with a declining current ratio indicating weakened short-term solvency, thus increasing financial risk [3] - Longda Food exhibits a "high debt and high cash" phenomenon, raising questions about its financial management efficiency due to substantial short-term borrowings alongside considerable cash reserves [3] - The growing ratio of accounts receivable to revenue suggests a weakening ability to collect payments, increasing cash flow pressure [3] Strategic Responses - In response to current challenges, Longda Food is attempting various strategies, including controlling breeding scale, adjusting product structure, deepening processing business, and expanding new retail channels [3] - However, these measures have yet to reverse the declining performance, and the company must find more effective ways to enhance product competitiveness and market recognition in an increasingly competitive pre-made food industry [3]