南华干散货运输市场日报 —当日，工业品发运需求支撑海岬型船租金市场，但即期市场较弱 2025年09月02日 傅小燕 （投资咨询证号：Z0002675） 一、总结 当周BDI运输市场走势开始回落，一方面受到BCI运价指数环比大跌影响；另一方面BPI、BSI运价指数涨幅收 窄，甚至下跌所致。其中BCI运价指数周环比跌幅超2%。 从主要港口船舶停靠数量、商品发运、用船需求去看：多数农产品发运节奏放缓，但巴西大豆发运用船依然 较多；工业品中铁矿石、煤炭发运维持高位，但几内亚铝土矿发运节奏加快。综合上述来看，海岬型船用船 需求回升，巴拿马型船/大灵便型船用船需求边际回落。 BCI期现货价格比较 source： 同花顺,南华研究,路透 美元/天 BCI运价指数(右轴) BCI-C10_14航线运价 24/02 24/04 24/06 24/08 24/10 24/12 25/02 25/04 25/06 25/08 0 2000 4000 20000 40000 二、现货指数回顾 2.1.BDI运价指数分析：BCI运价指数环比大跌，拖累BDI指数走弱 与8月26日数据相比，9月1日BDI综合运价指数环比下跌，其中BCI运 ...

Group 1: Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The BDI shipping market started to pick up this week. The increase in BCI freight index from a decline to a rise, along with the continuous rise of BPI, BSI, and BHSI freight indices, contributed to this trend. The BPI freight index had a weekly increase of over 12% [1]. - The surge in agricultural product shipments, especially from Brazil, led to a significant increase in the demand for Panamax and (large) Handysize vessels. In contrast, the shipments of industrial products such as coal and iron ore showed a slight decline [1]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Summary - The BDI shipping market showed signs of recovery this week. The BCI freight index reversed from a decline to an increase, while the BPI, BSI, and BHSI freight indices continued to rise. The BPI freight index had a weekly increase of over 12% [1]. - Agricultural product shipments, particularly corn, wheat, and soybeans, increased significantly, driving up the demand for Panamax and (large) Handysize vessels. Industrial product shipments, such as coal and iron ore, decreased slightly [1]. 2. Spot Index Review 2.1 BDI Freight Index Analysis - On August 27, all components of the BDI composite freight index and its sub - ship type freight indices increased week - on - week. The BPI freight index had the largest increase, exceeding 12%. Specifically, the BDI composite index closed at 2046 points, up 6.18% week - on - week; the BCI index was at 2989 points, up 4.27%; the BPI index reached 1874 points, up 12.55%; the BSI index was 1447 points, up 4.25%; and the BHSI index was 745 points, up 4.34% [4]. 2.2 FDI Far East Dry Bulk Freight Index - On August 27, most of the FDI composite index and sub - ship type charter rates increased. However, the freight rate of the Australia - Qingdao route in the FDI Capesize vessel charter rate index decreased on a daily basis. The FDI composite freight index closed at 1375.16 points, up 0.43% month - on - month; the FDI charter rate index was at 1706.73 points, up 0.79% [8]. 3. Dry Bulk Shipment Tracking 3.1 Ship Usage Quantity of Shipping Countries on the Day - On August 28, among the major agricultural product shipping countries, Brazil used 59 ships, Russia used 11 ships, Argentina used 16 ships, and Australia used 5 ships. Among the major industrial product shipping countries, Australia used 52 ships, Guinea used 28 ships, Indonesia used 42 ships, Russia used 24 ships, South Africa used 16 ships, Brazil used 9 ships, and the United States used 10 ships [16][17]. 3.2 Shipment Volume and Ship Usage Analysis on the Day - In terms of agricultural product shipments, 29 ships were used for corn, 23 for wheat, 22 for soybeans, 13 for soybean meal, and 11 for sugar. For industrial product shipments, 106 ships were used for coal, 67 for iron ore, and 17 for other dry goods. By ship type, the largest number of Ultra - Panamax ships (49) were required for agricultural product shipments, followed by 19 Ultra - Handysize ships and 20 Handysize ships. For industrial product shipments, the largest number of Capesize ships (77) were needed, followed by 64 Ultra - Panamax ships and 62 Ultra - Handysize ships [18]. 4. Tracking of the Number of Ships at Major Ports - This week, the number of ships at Chinese and Indonesian ports continued to increase, while the number of ships at Australian ports continued to decrease significantly on a weekly basis. Adjusted data showed that from August 1 to August 27, "one port decreased and four ports increased." Except for a decrease of 9 ships at Chinese ports, the number of ships at other ports was expected to increase. The number of ships at six Australian ports increased by 3, at six Indonesian ports by 2, at five Brazilian ports by 8, and at one South African port by 1 [18][19]. 5. Relationship between Freight and Commodity Prices - On August 27, the price of Brazilian soybeans was $38 per ton. On August 28, the near - term shipping quote for Brazilian soybeans was 3975.84 yuan per ton. - On August 26, the latest quote for the BCI C10_14 route freight was $28,068 per day. On August 27, the latest quote for the iron ore arrival price was $119.95 per thousand tons. - On August 26, the latest quote for the BPI P3A_03 route freight was $14,402 per day. On August 27, the latest quote for the thermal coal arrival price was 551.71 yuan per ton. - On August 27, the Handysize vessel freight index was quoted at 727.6 points. On August 29, the quote for 4 - meter medium ACFR radiata pine was $116 per cubic meter [23].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core View The BPI and BSI freight rate indices continued to decline, and the BHSI also joined the decline. Although the BCI freight rate index rose, its increase narrowed, leading to a narrowing increase in the BDI composite freight rate index. The increase in the shipment of agricultural products and new shipments of resources such as iron ore and bauxite boosted the demand for capesize vessels, supporting the freight rates of capesize vessels. However, the decrease in the shipment of industrial products dragged down the demand for panamax and handy vessels, causing their prices to weaken [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 2.1 BDI Freight Rate Index Analysis - On July 29, compared with the previous week, the increases in the BDI composite freight rate index and the BCI freight rate index narrowed. The BPI, BSI, and BHSI indices adjusted, with the decline of the BPI index widening. Specifically, the BDI composite freight rate index closed at 2,109 points, a week - on - week increase of 3.64%; the BCI index closed at 3,476 points, a week - on - week increase of 13.56%; the BPI index closed at 1,741 points, a week - on - week decrease of 8.8%; the BSI index closed at 1,281 points, a week - on - week decrease of 3.61%; and the BHSI index closed at 677 points, a week - on - week decrease of 0.15% [4]. 2.2 FDI Far East Dry Bulk Freight Rate Index - On July 29, the FDI index declined across the board. In the routes of the super - handy vessel rent index, the rent of the Indonesia - to - China voyage charter route increased by 0.11% month - on - month. The FDI composite freight rate index closed at 1,321.5 points, a month - on - month decrease of 0.81%; the FDI rent index closed at 1,610.35 points, a month - on - month decrease of 0.92%. The rent indices of different ship types also showed varying degrees of decline [8]. 3.1 Daily Shipping Country Shipping and Vessel Usage Quantity - On July 31, among the major agricultural product shipping countries, Brazil used 43 vessels for shipping, Russia used 14 vessels, Argentina used 30 vessels, and Australia used 5 vessels. Among the major industrial product shipping countries, Australia used 51 vessels, Guinea used 27 vessels, Indonesia used 24 vessels, Russia used 27 vessels, South Africa used 18 vessels, Brazil used 11 vessels, and the United States used 13 vessels [16]. 3.2 Daily Shipment Volume and Vessel Usage Analysis - In terms of agricultural product shipments, 30 vessels were used for corn, 22 for wheat, 20 for soybeans, 11 for soybean meal, and 12 for sugar. In terms of industrial product shipments, 93 vessels were used for coal, 75 for iron ore, and 15 for other dry goods. By ship type, agricultural product shipments required the most post - panamax vessels (44), followed by super - handy vessels (22) and handy vessels (23). Industrial product shipments required the most capesize vessels (76), followed by post - panamax vessels (60) and super - handy vessels (54) [17]. 4. Main Port Ship Quantity Tracking - The weekly data showed that the number of ships in Chinese, Indonesian, and South African ports continued to increase month - on - month. From July 1 to July 30, the number of dry - bulk ships in Chinese ports increased by 13; the number of ships in Australian ports decreased by 11; the number of ships in Indonesian ports increased by 4; and the number of ships in Brazilian and South African ports remained unchanged [17][18]. 5. Relationship between Freight and Commodity Prices - On July 29, Brazilian soybeans were priced at $40/ton, and the near - term shipping quote was 3,934.19 yuan/ton. On July 28, the latest quote for the BCI C10_14 route freight was $26,118/day, and the latest quote for the iron ore CIF price was $114.6/thousand tons. On July 28, the latest quote for the BPI P3A_03 route freight was $13,528/day, and on July 29, the latest quote for the steam coal CIF price was 532.98 yuan/ton. On July 28, the handy vessel freight rate index was quoted at 680.8 points, and on August 1, the ACFR quote for 4 - meter radiata pine was $114/cubic meter [23].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The increase of the BDI comprehensive freight index and sub - vessel type freight indices narrowed during the week, with the BPI freight index declining. The decrease in soybean shipment volume and a significant increase in soybean meal shipment volume were observed. In the shipment of industrial products, the demand for shipping bauxite and other dry goods was relatively large, which boosted the demand for Capesize and Handysize vessels and supported the rise of the BCI and BHSI freight indices [1]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Spot Index Review 1.1 BDI Freight Index Analysis - On July 21, compared with the previous week, the increase of the BDI comprehensive freight index narrowed, and the BPI freight index declined. Specifically, the BDI comprehensive freight index closed at 2016 points, up 13.07% week - on - week; the BCI freight index closed at 2981 points, up 25.94% week - on - week; the BPI freight index closed at 1915 points, down 1.74% week - on - week; the BSI freight index closed at 1346 points, up 8.2% week - on - week; the BHSI freight index closed at 675 points, up 4.01% week - on - week [4]. 1.2 FDI Far - East Dry Bulk Freight Index - On July 21, the FDI index declined slightly across the board, and the increase of freight rates on most routes in the FDI rent index narrowed. The FDI comprehensive freight index closed at 1279.38 points, down 0.07% month - on - month; the FDI rent index closed at 1549.66 points, down 0.06% month - on - month. Among them, the Capesize vessel rent index closed at 1457.77 points, down 0.7% month - on - month; the Panamax vessel rent index closed at 1715.71 points, up 0.45% month - on - month; the Supramax vessel rent index closed at 1506.13 points, up 0.18% month - on - month; the FDI freight index closed at 1099.2 points, down 0.07% month - on - month [8]. 2. Dry Bulk Shipment Situation Tracking 2.1 Number of Vessels Used for Shipment in Sending Countries on the Day - On July 22, among the major agricultural product sending countries, Brazil used 39 vessels for shipment, Russia used 8 vessels, Argentina used 20 vessels, and Australia used 1 vessel. Among the major industrial product sending countries, Australia used 55 vessels, Guinea used 26 vessels, Indonesia used 24 vessels, Russia used 23 vessels, South Africa used 21 vessels, Brazil used 12 vessels, and the United States used 15 vessels [16][17]. 2.2 Shipment Volume and Vessel - Usage Analysis on the Day - In terms of agricultural product shipments, 19 vessels were used for corn shipment, 9 for wheat, 21 for soybeans, 10 for soybean meal, and 7 for sugar. In terms of industrial product shipments, 102 vessels were used for coal, 66 for iron ore, and 17 for other dry goods. By vessel type, the shipment of agricultural products required the most Post - Panamax vessels (35), followed by Supramax vessels (13) and Handysize vessels (11). The shipment of industrial products required the most Capesize vessels (81), followed by Post - Panamax vessels (56) and Supramax vessels (40) [18]. 3. Tracking of the Number of Vessels at Major Ports - During the week, the number of vessels at ports in Indonesia and South Africa increased month - on - month. From July 1 to July 21, after adjustment, "three ports decreased, and two ports increased." The number of dry - bulk vessels docked at Chinese ports decreased significantly by 37 month - on - month, the number of vessels docked at six Australian ports decreased by 13 month - on - month; the number of vessels at one South African port and six Indonesian ports increased by 1/2 month - on - month; the number of vessels at five Brazilian ports decreased by 4 month - on - month [18][19]. 4. Relationship between Freight and Commodity Prices - On July 21, Brazilian soybeans were priced at $40 per ton, and the near - term shipping quote for Brazilian soybeans was 3956.71 yuan per ton. On July 18, the latest quote for the BCI C10_14 route freight was $22,732 per day, and on July 21, the latest quote for the iron ore CIF price was $116.45 per thousand tons. On July 18, the latest quote for the BPI P3A_03 route freight was $14,636 per day, and on July 21, the latest quote for the steam coal CIF price was 530.54 yuan per ton. On July 18, the Handysize vessel freight index was quoted at 662.4 points, and on July 21, the ACFR quote for 4 - meter radiata pine was $114 per cubic meter [23].