证券研究报告 招商轮船 (601872 CH) 多重利好共振催化油运市场持续走强 | 华泰研究 | | | 季报点评 | 投资评级(维持): | 买入 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 年 | 10 月 | 30 日│中国内地 | 水路运输 | 目标价(人民币): | 10.30 | 招商轮船发布三季报：前三季度营收 193.1 亿元，同比+0.1%；归母净利/ 扣非归母净利 33.0 亿/29.0 亿元，同比-2.1%/-11.8%。其中，3Q 归母净利 11.8 亿元，同环比+34.8%/-6.7%；扣非归母净利 9.9 亿元，同环比 +17.9%/-5.5%。今年以来，全球原油轮市场呈现"先抑后扬"走势，自 8 月以来，受益于 OPEC+/北美/巴西/阿根廷等国增产、跨区域原油价差套利 贸易活跃、低油价带动补库需求、地缘事件扰动等多重利好因素共振，VLCC 运价呈现大幅上扬态势。我们认为全球原油产量增加叠加地缘事件共振催 化，油运市场有望持续走强，进一步推升公司盈利。重申"买入"。 3Q 盈利环比下降主因收入确认滞后，4Q 盈利环比有望大幅上涨 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - As of the reporting date, the shipment volume of industrial products remained high, marginally supporting the transportation demand for Capesize vessels. The Capesize vessel freight index BCI maintained a weekly increase, supporting the continued rise of the BDI composite freight index. However, the BPI freight index continued to decline, and the BSI freight index turned from rising to falling, indicating that freight rates on some routes were starting to weaken. The significant reduction in wheat and soybean shipments dragged down the transportation demand for Handysize vessels, while the high shipment volume of industrial products such as Australian iron ore, South African coal, Russian coal, and Guinean bauxite supported the transportation demand for Capesize vessels [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Spot Index Review 3.1.1 BDI Freight Index Analysis - Compared with the data on September 12, the range of decline in the route - specific freight index widened, the decline of the BPI freight index increased, and the BSI freight index turned from rising to falling. In addition, the weekly increase of the BCI freight index narrowed, which also led to a narrowing of the increase in the BDI composite freight index. The BDI composite freight index closed at 2203 points, a week - on - week increase of 3.62%; the BCI freight index closed at 3437 points, a week - on - week increase of 11.95%; the BPI freight index closed at 1845 points, a week - on - week decrease of 8.03%; the BSI freight index closed at 1489 points, a week - on - week decrease of 0.2%; the BHSI freight index closed at 815 points, a week - on - week increase of 1.37% [4]. 3.1.2 FDI Far - East Dry Bulk Freight Index - On September 18, the FDI composite index, FDI rental freight index, and FDI spot freight index all rebounded, but the rebound amplitude decreased. In the FDI rental freight index, the rental freight of Capesize vessels still increased month - on - month. Specifically, the FDI composite freight index closed at 1389.93 points, a month - on - month increase of 0.8%; the FDI rental index closed at 1725.57 points, a month - on - month increase of 0.97%; among them, the Capesize vessel rental index closed at 1926.47 points, a month - on - month increase of 2.29%; the Panamax vessel rental index closed at 1550.88 points, a month - on - month increase of 0.09%; the Handymax vessel rental index closed at 1632.4 points, a month - on - month decrease of 0.21%; the FDI freight index closed at 1166.17 points, a month - on - month increase of 0.63% [9]. 3.2 Dry Bulk Shipment Situation Tracking 3.2.1 Number of Vessels Used for Shipment in Sending Countries on the Day - The main sending countries of industrial products include Indonesia, Australia, Guinea, Russia, the United States, South Africa, Brazil, Canada, India, Colombia, Serbia, and Mozambique. The main sending countries of agricultural products include Russia, Argentina, Australia, Ukraine, and the United States. On September 22, among the main sending countries of agricultural products, Brazil used 50 vessels for shipment, Russia used 14 vessels, Argentina used 22 vessels, and Australia used 3 vessels. Among the main sending countries of industrial products, Australia used 57 vessels, Guinea used 34 vessels, Indonesia used 39 vessels, Russia used 20 vessels, South Africa used 18 vessels, Brazil used 12 vessels, and the United States used 11 vessels [14][15]. 3.2.2 Analysis of Shipment Volume and Vessel Usage on the Day - In terms of agricultural product shipments, 21 vessels were used for corn shipment, 21 for wheat, 11 for soybeans, 12 for soybean meal, and 17 for sugar. In terms of industrial product shipments, 108 vessels were used for coal, 82 for iron ore, and 15 for other dry goods. In terms of vessel types, the largest number of vessels required for agricultural product shipments was 35 Post - Panamax vessels, followed by 21 Handymax vessels, and finally 17 Handysize vessels. For industrial product shipments, the largest number was 96 Capesize vessels, followed by 71 Post - Panamax vessels, and finally 53 Handymax vessels [15]. 3.3 Tracking of the Number of Vessels at Major Ports - The data for the week showed that the number of vessels at major Chinese ports decreased week - on - week. Data from mid - to late September showed that "three ports increased, two ports decreased." The expected number of dry - bulk vessels docked at Chinese ports increased by 8 week - on - week, the number of vessels docked at six Australian ports decreased by 5 week - on - week, the number of vessels at South African ports increased by 1 week - on - week, the number of vessels at Brazilian ports increased by 1 week - on - week, and the number of vessels at six Indonesian ports decreased by 2 week - on - week [16]. 3.4 Relationship between Freight and Commodity Prices - On September 19, Brazilian soybeans were priced at $40 per ton. On September 22, the near - term shipping quote for Brazilian soybeans was 3945.57 yuan per ton. On September 18, the latest quote for the BCI C10_14 route freight was $30205 per day. On September 19, the latest quote for the CIF price of iron ore was $120.75 per thousand tons. On September 18, the latest quote for the BPI P3A_03 route freight was $14490 per day. On September 18, the latest quote for the CIF price of thermal coal was 558.34 yuan per ton. On September 19, the Handysize vessel freight index was quoted at 807.6 points. On September 19, the CFR price of 4 - meter medium - grade ACFR radiata pine was quoted at $114 per cubic meter [19].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report As of the reporting date, the shipment volume of industrial products remained high, which marginally supported the transportation demand for large vessels such as Capesize ships. The week-on-week increase in the Capesize ship freight index BCI expanded, driving the further rise of the BDI composite freight index. Meanwhile, the increase in the BSI & BHSI freight indices narrowed, and the BPI freight index turned down, indicating weak freight rates on some routes. The significant increase in shipments from countries like Russia and Australia, especially the growth in wheat and soybean shipments, supported the transportation demand for Panamax and Handysize ships. The continued substantial increase in the shipment volume of industrial products such as Australian iron ore, South African coal, Russian coal, and Guinean bauxite supported the transportation demand for Capesize ships. Against the backdrop of the significant increase in agricultural product shipments and the high demand for industrial product shipments, dry bulk carriers continued to benefit [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Spot Index Review 1.1 BDI Freight Index Analysis Compared with the data on September 11, except for the week-on-week decline of the BPI freight index, the week-on-week increase of the freight indices of other mainstream ship types continued. Among the sub - ship type freight indices, the weekly increase of the BCI freight index expanded to 12%, and the increase of the BSI & BHSI freight indices narrowed to less than 1%. However, the increase of the BDI composite freight index expanded. Specifically, the BDI composite freight index closed at 2205 points, a week-on-week increase of 4.45%; the BCI freight index closed at 3411 points, a week-on-week increase of 12.17%; the BPI freight index closed at 1881 points, a week-on-week decrease of 5.86%; the BSI freight index closed at 1492 points, a week-on-week increase of 0.54%; the BHSI freight index closed at 809 points, a week-on-week increase of 1% [4]. 1.2 FDI Far - East Dry Bulk Freight Index On September 18, the FDI composite index, FDI rental freight index, and FDI spot freight index all rebounded. In the FDI rental freight index, the rental freight of Capesize ships still increased month - on - month. Specifically, the FDI composite freight index closed at 1378.93 points, a month - on - month increase of 1.18%; the FDI rental index closed at 1708.96 points, a month - on - month increase of 1.68%; among them, the Capesize ship rental index closed at 1883.36 points, a month - on - month increase of 4.23%; the Panamax ship rental index closed at 1549.47 points, a month - on - month decrease of 0.24%; the Handymax ship rental index closed at 1635.91 points, a month - on - month decrease of 0.25%; the FDI freight index closed at 1158.92 points, a month - on - month increase of 0.7% [9]. 2. Dry Bulk Shipment Situation Tracking 2.1 Number of Vessels Used for Shipment by Shipping Countries on the Day The main shipping countries for industrial products include Indonesia, Australia, Guinea, Russia, the United States, South Africa, Brazil, Canada, India, Colombia, Serbia, and Mozambique. The main shipping countries for agricultural products include Russia, Argentina, Australia, Ukraine, and the United States. On September 19, among the main agricultural product shipping countries, Brazil used 54 ships for shipment, Russia used 20 ships, Argentina used 23 ships, Romania used 1 ship, and Australia used 4 ships. Among the main industrial product shipping countries, Australia used 57 ships, Guinea used 36 ships, Indonesia used 44 ships, Russia used 24 ships, South Africa used 15 ships, Brazil used 15 ships, and the United States used 9 ships [13][14]. 2.2 Shipment Volume and Vessel Usage Analysis on the Day In terms of agricultural product shipments, 20 ships were used for corn shipments, 29 for wheat, 25 for soybeans, 9 for soybean meal, and 15 for sugar. In terms of industrial product shipments, 110 ships were used for coal, 77 for iron ore, and 14 for other dry goods. By ship type, the shipment of agricultural products required the most Post - Panamax ships (40), followed by 28 Handymax ships and 22 Handysize ships. The shipment of industrial products required the most Capesize ships (96), followed by 69 Post - Panamax ships and 53 Handymax ships [15]. 3. Tracking of the Number of Ships at Major Ports The weekly data showed that except for the decrease in the number of ships at Australian ports, the number of ships at other ports increased week - on - week. In particular, the number of ships at major Chinese ports increased by 8. The data for mid - to - late September showed an increase at "four ports" with an expanding growth rate. It is expected that the number of dry bulk ships docked at Chinese ports will increase by 4 week - on - week, the number of ships docked at six Australian ports will increase by 9, the number of ships at South African ports will increase by 2, and the number of ships at Brazilian ports will increase by 1 [15][16]. 4. Relationship between Freight and Commodity Prices - Brazilian soybeans: On September 18, the price of Brazilian soybeans was $40/ton. On September 19, the near - term shipping quote for Brazilian soybeans was 3986.98 yuan/ton. - Iron ore: On September 18, the latest quote for the BCI C10_14 route freight was $30,205/day. On September 18, the latest quote for the iron ore arrival price was $120.8/thousand tons. - Steam coal: On September 18, the latest quote for the BPI P3A_03 route freight was $14,490/day. On September 18, the latest quote for the steam coal arrival price was 555.93 yuan/ton. - Logs: On September 18, the Handysize ship freight index was quoted at 805.4 points. On September 19, the quote for 4 - meter medium ACFR radiata pine was $114/cubic meter [20].

南华干散货运输市场日报 ——铁矿石&煤炭发运大增，大船发运需求升温 2025年09月17日 傅小燕 （投资咨询证号：Z0002675） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 一、总结 截至当日，工业品发运量大幅增加，边际上增加大船运输需求，尤其是海岬型船运输需求。因此，海岬型船 运价指数BCI周环比大涨。同时BPI和BSI&BHSI运价指数维持涨势，也支撑BDI综合运价指数进一步上涨。 从主要港口船舶停靠数量、商品发运、用船需求去看：加拿大、澳大利亚和乌克兰农产品发运量大增，边际 上增加巴拿马型船、灵便型船运输需求；澳大利亚铁矿石、南非煤炭、俄罗斯煤炭、几内亚铝土矿等工业品 发运量继续大幅增加。 在上述农产品和工业品发运需求均维持高位的背景下，干散货船继续受益，尤其是海岬型船受益特别明显。 BCI期现货价格比较 source： 同花顺,南华研究,路透 美元/天 BCI运价指数(右轴) BCI-C10_14航线运价 24/02 24/04 24/06 24/08 24/10 24/12 25/02 25/04 25/06 25/08 0 2000 4000 20000 40000 source： 同 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the investment rating for the industry. 2. Core View As of the reporting date, due to the continuous improvement in commodity shipping volume, the demand for mainstream ship types has significantly increased, especially for Capesize and Panamax vessels. This has led to a substantial week - on - week increase in the BCI and BPI freight rate indices, supporting the BDI composite freight rate index to rise by over 8%. The shipping demand for both agricultural and industrial products has increased significantly, benefiting all dry - bulk carriers. [1][4] 3. Summary by Directory 2.1 BDI Freight Rate Index Analysis - Compared with September 3 data, the week - on - week increase in the freight rate indices of mainstream ship types was significant. The BDI composite freight rate index closed at 2112 points, up 8.87% week - on - week; the BCI freight rate index was at 3071 points, up 10.75% week - on - week; the BPI freight rate index was at 1975 points, up 14.89% week - on - week; the BSI freight rate index was at 1478 points, up 0.75% week - on - week; and the BHSI freight rate index was at 798 points, up 1.27% week - on - week. [4] - The BDI composite freight rate index increased by 4.30% month - on - month and 105.25% compared to the beginning of the year; the BCI index decreased by 6.37% month - on - month but increased by 143.54% compared to the beginning of the year; the BPI index increased by 23.90% month - on - month and 97.5% compared to the beginning of the year; the BSI index increased by 10.63% month - on - month and 64.40% compared to the beginning of the year; the BHSI index increased by 15.65% month - on - month and 44% compared to the beginning of the year. [5][7] 2.2 FDI Far - East Dry Bulk Freight Rate Index - On September 10, the FDI composite index, FDI rental freight index, and FDI spot freight index all increased. Among them, the rental freight of Panamax vessels in the FDI rental freight index had the largest month - on - month increase. - The FDI composite freight rate index closed at 1366.34 points, up 1.11% month - on - month; the FDI rental index was at 1686.96 points, up 1.3% month - on - month. The Capesize vessel rental index was at 1822.95 points, up 1.77% month - on - month; the Panamax vessel rental index was at 1546.77 points, up 2.03% month - on - month; the Handymax vessel rental index was at 1645.83 points, down 0.03% month - on - month; the FDI freight rate index was at 1152.59 points, up month - on - month. [8] 3.1 Daily Shipping Country Shipping and Vessel Usage Quantity - On September 11, among the major agricultural product shipping countries, Brazil used 58 vessels, Russia 8 vessels, Argentina 18 vessels, Uruguay 0 vessels, and Australia 0 vessels. Among the major industrial product shipping countries, Australia used 58 vessels, Guinea 37 vessels, Indonesia 47 vessels, Russia 15 vessels, South Africa 19 vessels, Brazil 13 vessels, and the United States 8 vessels. [15][16] 3.2 Daily Shipping Volume and Vessel Usage Analysis - In terms of agricultural product shipping, 22 vessels were used for corn shipping, 21 for wheat, 21 for soybeans, 10 for soybean meal, and 20 for sugar. In terms of industrial product shipping, 104 vessels were used for coal, 75 for iron ore, and 23 for other dry goods. - For agricultural product shipping, the most required were Post - Panamax vessels (42), followed by Handymax vessels (22), and then Handysize vessels (27). For industrial product shipping, the most required were Capesize vessels (92), followed by Post - Panamax vessels (72), and then Handymax vessels (60). [17] 4. Main Port Vessel Quantity Tracking - In mid - September, the number of vessels docked at Chinese ports continued to increase. The data showed that the number of dry - bulk vessels docked at Chinese ports was expected to increase by 22 week - on - week, while the number at Australian ports decreased by 2, and the number at Indonesian ports increased by 1. The number of vessels at Brazilian and South African ports remained unchanged. [18] 5. Relationship between Freight and Commodity Prices - On September 10, Brazilian soybeans were priced at $39/ton, and the near - term shipping quote was 4033.52 yuan/ton. - On September 10, the latest quote for the BCI C10_14 route freight was $28045/day, and the latest quote for iron ore CIF price was $123.95/kiloton. - On September 10, the latest quote for the BPI P3A_03 route freight was $14227/day, and the latest quote for steam coal CIF price was 544.6 yuan/ton. - On September 10, the Handysize vessel freight rate index was quoted at 790.4 points. On September 12, the 4 - meter medium ACFR radiata pine was quoted at $114/cubic meter. [22]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an investment rating for the industry. 2. Core View The decline in the BDI shipping market widened this week. The BCI and BPI freight rate indices continued to fall, with the decline exceeding 7%, and the increase in the BSI freight rate index continued to narrow. Only the BHSI freight rate index maintained a sharp increase. The demand for large ships has reached saturation, but the significant increase in agricultural product shipments, especially from Uruguay, may be an early stockpiling measure in response to US tariff policies, which supports the demand for (large) handy - sized ships [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 2.1 BDI Freight Rate Index Analysis - Compared with August 27th data, on September 3rd, the BDI composite freight rate index continued to weaken with an enlarged decline. The BCI and BPI freight rate indices' declines both exceeded 7%, and the increase in the BSI freight rate index narrowed. Specifically, the BDI composite freight rate index closed at 1940 points, down 5.18% week - on - week; the BCI freight rate index closed at 2773 points, down 7.23% week - on - week; the BPI freight rate index closed at 1719 points, down 8.27% week - on - week; the BSI freight rate index closed at 1467 points, up 1.38% week - on - week; the BHSI freight rate index closed at 788 points, up 5.77% week - on - week [4]. 2.2 FDI Far - East Dry Bulk Freight Rate Index - Compared with September 2nd, on September 3rd, the FDI composite index turned down. The only rising route was the capesize ship rental freight route from Australia to Zhoushan, China, with the freight increasing 0.03% on the day. The FDI composite freight rate index closed at 1329.93 points, down 1.3% month - on - month; the FDI rental index closed at 1622.47 points, down 1.89% month - on - month; the capesize ship rental index closed at 1674.63 points, down 2.55% month - on - month; the panamax ship rental index closed at 1516.52 points, down 2.37% month - on - month; the large handy - sized ship rental index closed at 1658.87 points, down 0.53% month - on - month; the FDI freight rate index closed at 1134.9 points, down 0.74% month - on - month [9]. 3.1当日发运国发运用船数量 - On September 4th, among major agricultural product shipping countries, Brazil used 44 ships, Russia used 11 ships, Argentina used 22 ships, Uruguay used 4 ships, and Australia used 0 ships. Among major industrial product shipping countries, Australia used 59 ships, Guinea used 27 ships, Indonesia used 37 ships, Russia used 21 ships, South Africa used 18 ships, Brazil used 7 ships, and the US used 10 ships [16]. 3.2当日发运量及用船分析 - In terms of agricultural product shipments, 18 ships were used for corn, 25 for wheat, 27 for soybeans, 14 for soybean meal, and 11 for sugar. In terms of industrial product shipments, 109 ships were used for coal, 65 for iron ore, and 13 for other dry goods. For agricultural product shipments, the most required were post - panamax ships (39), followed by super - handy ships (26), and then handy ships (20). For industrial product shipments, the most required were large capesize ships (76), followed by post - panamax ships (63), and then super - handy ships (57) [17]. 4.主要港口船舶数量跟踪 - The weekly data showed that the number of ships docked at all ports increased month - on - month, with the most obvious increase in Australian ports. The early - September data showed that "one port decreased, two ports increased". The number of dry - bulk ships docked at Chinese ports was expected to increase by 7 month - on - month, the number of ships at Australian ports decreased by 1 month - on - month, and the number of ships at Brazilian ports increased by 1 month - on - month [18]. 5.运费与商品价格的关系 - On September 3rd, Brazilian soybeans were at $39/ton, and on September 4th, the near - term shipping quote was 3993.74 yuan/ton. On September 2nd, the latest quote for the BCI C10_14 route freight was $25677/day, and on September 3rd, the latest quote for the iron ore CIF price was $121.6/kiloton. On September 2nd, the latest quote for the BPI P3A_03 route freight was $13519/day, and on September 3rd, the latest quote for the steam coal CIF price was 542.08 yuan/ton. On September 3rd, the handy - sized ship freight rate index was quoted at 774.4 points, and on August 29th, the CFR price of 4 - meter radiata pine ACFR was $116/cubic meter [22].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The BDI shipping market's upward trend started to reverse this week. The sharp week-on-week decline in the BCI freight index and the narrowing increase or decline in the BPI and BSI freight indices contributed to this change. The BCI freight index dropped by over 2%. In terms of shipping demand, most agricultural product shipments slowed down, but there was still significant demand for shipping Brazilian soybeans. Among industrial products, iron ore and coal shipments remained high, and the shipment of Guinea bauxite accelerated. Overall, the demand for Capesize vessels increased, while the demand for Panamax and Handymax vessels decreased marginally [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Spot Index Review 3.1.1 BDI Freight Index Analysis - Compared to August 26th data, the BDI composite freight index decreased on September 1st. The BCI freight index dropped by over 2.71%, which was the main factor dragging down the BDI. The BPI freight index declined slightly week-on-week, and the increase in the BSI freight index narrowed. Specifically, the BDI composite freight index closed at 2024 points, down 0.83% week-on-week; the BCI freight index was at 2949 points, down 2.71% week-on-week; the BPI freight index was at 1813 points, down 0.28% week-on-week; the BSI freight index was at 1467 points, up 2.09% week-on-week; and the BHSI freight index was at 779 points, up 5.99% week-on-week [4]. 3.1.2 FDI Far East Dry Bulk Freight Index - Compared to August 29th, on September 1st, the FDI composite index and the Capesize vessel charter freight increased, while the charter freight for Panamax and Handymax vessels decreased. The FDI composite freight index closed at 1348.64 points, up 0.29% month-on-month; the FDI charter index was at 1660.2 points, up 0.3% month-on-month. Among them, the Capesize vessel charter index was at 1714.5 points, up 1.15% month-on-month; the Panamax vessel charter index was at 1574.42 points, down 0.68% month-on-month [8]. 3.2 Dry Bulk Shipment Tracking 3.2.1 Number of Vessels Used for Shipment by Sending Countries - On September 2nd, among the main agricultural product sending countries, Brazil used 43 vessels, Russia used 9 vessels, Argentina used 16 vessels, Ukraine used 2 vessels, and Australia used 0 vessels. Among the main industrial product sending countries, Australia used 55 vessels, Guinea used 30 vessels, Indonesia used 34 vessels, Russia used 23 vessels, South Africa used 21 vessels, Brazil used 10 vessels, and the United States used 12 vessels [14][15]. 3.2.2 Shipment Volume and Vessel Usage Analysis - In terms of agricultural product shipments, 17 vessels were used for corn, 12 for wheat, 24 for soybeans, 11 for soybean meal, and 8 for sugar. For industrial product shipments, 104 vessels were used for coal, 64 for iron ore, and 19 for other dry goods. By vessel type, agricultural product shipments required the most Post-Panamax vessels (37), followed by Supramax vessels (18), and then Handysize vessels (10). Industrial product shipments required the most Large Capesize vessels (79), followed by Post-Panamax vessels (67), and then Supramax vessels (63) [16]. 3.3 Tracking of the Number of Vessels at Major Ports - Current week data showed a week-on-week decrease in the number of vessels at Chinese ports and an increase at other ports. Early September data indicated that the number of dry bulk vessels at Chinese ports was expected to increase by 6 week-on-week, while the number at six Australian ports decreased by 3 week-on-week, and the number at other ports remained unchanged [16][17]. 3.4 Relationship between Freight and Commodity Prices - On September 1st, Brazilian soybeans were priced at $39 per ton, and the near-term shipping quote was 3992.81 yuan per ton. On August 29th, the latest quote for the BCI C10_14 route freight was $26,105 per day, and on September 1st, the latest CIF price for iron ore was $120.45 per thousand tons. On August 29th, the latest quote for the BPI P3A_03 route freight was $14,170 per day, and on September 1st, the latest CIF price for thermal coal was 543.75 yuan per ton. On September 1st, the Handysize vessel freight index was quoted at 755.8 points, and on August 29th, the 4-meter medium ACFR radiata pine was quoted at $116 per cubic meter [21].

Group 1: Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The BDI shipping market started to pick up this week. The increase in BCI freight index from a decline to a rise, along with the continuous rise of BPI, BSI, and BHSI freight indices, contributed to this trend. The BPI freight index had a weekly increase of over 12% [1]. - The surge in agricultural product shipments, especially from Brazil, led to a significant increase in the demand for Panamax and (large) Handysize vessels. In contrast, the shipments of industrial products such as coal and iron ore showed a slight decline [1]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Summary - The BDI shipping market showed signs of recovery this week. The BCI freight index reversed from a decline to an increase, while the BPI, BSI, and BHSI freight indices continued to rise. The BPI freight index had a weekly increase of over 12% [1]. - Agricultural product shipments, particularly corn, wheat, and soybeans, increased significantly, driving up the demand for Panamax and (large) Handysize vessels. Industrial product shipments, such as coal and iron ore, decreased slightly [1]. 2. Spot Index Review 2.1 BDI Freight Index Analysis - On August 27, all components of the BDI composite freight index and its sub - ship type freight indices increased week - on - week. The BPI freight index had the largest increase, exceeding 12%. Specifically, the BDI composite index closed at 2046 points, up 6.18% week - on - week; the BCI index was at 2989 points, up 4.27%; the BPI index reached 1874 points, up 12.55%; the BSI index was 1447 points, up 4.25%; and the BHSI index was 745 points, up 4.34% [4]. 2.2 FDI Far East Dry Bulk Freight Index - On August 27, most of the FDI composite index and sub - ship type charter rates increased. However, the freight rate of the Australia - Qingdao route in the FDI Capesize vessel charter rate index decreased on a daily basis. The FDI composite freight index closed at 1375.16 points, up 0.43% month - on - month; the FDI charter rate index was at 1706.73 points, up 0.79% [8]. 3. Dry Bulk Shipment Tracking 3.1 Ship Usage Quantity of Shipping Countries on the Day - On August 28, among the major agricultural product shipping countries, Brazil used 59 ships, Russia used 11 ships, Argentina used 16 ships, and Australia used 5 ships. Among the major industrial product shipping countries, Australia used 52 ships, Guinea used 28 ships, Indonesia used 42 ships, Russia used 24 ships, South Africa used 16 ships, Brazil used 9 ships, and the United States used 10 ships [16][17]. 3.2 Shipment Volume and Ship Usage Analysis on the Day - In terms of agricultural product shipments, 29 ships were used for corn, 23 for wheat, 22 for soybeans, 13 for soybean meal, and 11 for sugar. For industrial product shipments, 106 ships were used for coal, 67 for iron ore, and 17 for other dry goods. By ship type, the largest number of Ultra - Panamax ships (49) were required for agricultural product shipments, followed by 19 Ultra - Handysize ships and 20 Handysize ships. For industrial product shipments, the largest number of Capesize ships (77) were needed, followed by 64 Ultra - Panamax ships and 62 Ultra - Handysize ships [18]. 4. Tracking of the Number of Ships at Major Ports - This week, the number of ships at Chinese and Indonesian ports continued to increase, while the number of ships at Australian ports continued to decrease significantly on a weekly basis. Adjusted data showed that from August 1 to August 27, "one port decreased and four ports increased." Except for a decrease of 9 ships at Chinese ports, the number of ships at other ports was expected to increase. The number of ships at six Australian ports increased by 3, at six Indonesian ports by 2, at five Brazilian ports by 8, and at one South African port by 1 [18][19]. 5. Relationship between Freight and Commodity Prices - On August 27, the price of Brazilian soybeans was $38 per ton. On August 28, the near - term shipping quote for Brazilian soybeans was 3975.84 yuan per ton. - On August 26, the latest quote for the BCI C10_14 route freight was $28,068 per day. On August 27, the latest quote for the iron ore arrival price was $119.95 per thousand tons. - On August 26, the latest quote for the BPI P3A_03 route freight was $14,402 per day. On August 27, the latest quote for the thermal coal arrival price was 551.71 yuan per ton. - On August 27, the Handysize vessel freight index was quoted at 727.6 points. On August 29, the quote for 4 - meter medium ACFR radiata pine was $116 per cubic meter [23].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The market continues to show the pattern of "the strong getting stronger." The BPI freight index and the (large) handy - sized ship transportation market's growth rates continue to expand. However, the week - on - week decline of the BCI freight index has widened, dragging down the week - on - week decline of the BDI composite freight index. Industrial product shipping demand remains strong, and the shipping demand for soymeal and sugar in agricultural products has increased significantly, supporting the shipping demand for (large) handy - sized ships [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 2.1 BDI Freight Index Analysis - On August 22, the week - on - week decline of the BDI composite freight index and the BCI freight index widened. The BPI, BSI, and BHSI freight indices continued to rise, and their growth rates continued to expand. Specifically, the BDI composite freight index closed at 1944 points, down 4.89% week - on - week; the BCI freight index closed at 2793 points, down 15.24% week - on - week; the BPI freight index closed at 1770 points, up 9.12% week - on - week; the BSI freight index closed at 1424 points, up 5.25% week - on - week; the BHSI freight index closed at 725 points, up 3.87% week - on - week [4]. 2.2 FDI Far - East Dry Bulk Freight Index - On August 25, the FDI composite index and the rent and freight rates of each ship type increased across the board. The rent index of FDI capesize ships increased by more than 10% on some routes. The FDI composite freight index closed at 1316.81 points, up 4.66% month - on - month; the FDI rent index closed at 1609.83 points, up 6.57% month - on - month. Among them, the capesize ship rent index closed at 1605.38 points, up 16.66% month - on - month; the panamax ship rent index closed at 1593.35 points, up 0.66% month - on - month; the large handy - sized ship rent index closed at 1632.26 points, up 0.9% month - on - month; the FDI freight index closed at 1121.46 points, up 2.91% month - on - month [8]. 3.1 Daily Shipping Country's Shipping Ship Quantity - On August 26, among the major agricultural product shipping countries, Brazil used 47 ships for shipping, Russia used 7 ships, Argentina used 19 ships, and Australia used 3 ships. Among the major industrial product shipping countries, Australia used 58 ships, Guinea used 32 ships, Indonesia used 40 ships, Russia used 24 ships, South Africa used 14 ships, Brazil used 11 ships, and the United States used 16 ships [16]. 3.2 Daily Shipping Volume and Ship - Use Analysis - In terms of agricultural product shipping, 20 ships were used for corn shipping, 15 for wheat, 13 for soybeans, 14 for soymeal, and 15 for sugar. In terms of industrial product shipping, 119 ships were used for coal, 71 for iron ore, and 16 for other dry goods. By ship type, the agricultural product shipping required the most post - panamax ships (39), followed by 16 handymax ships and 15 handy - sized ships. Industrial product shipping required the most capesize ships (82), followed by 68 post - panamax ships and 58 handymax ships [18]. 4. Main Port Ship Quantity Tracking - During the week, the number of ships in Chinese and Indonesian ports continued to increase month - on - month, while the number of ships docked in Australian ports continued to decrease significantly month - on - month. Adjusted data shows that from August 1st to August 25th, "one port decreased, and four ports increased." Except for a decrease of 5 dry - bulk ships docked in Chinese ports month - on - month, the number of ships in other ports is expected to increase. The number of ships in the six Australian ports increased by 2 month - on - month; the number of ships in the six Indonesian ports increased by 3 month - on - month; the number of ships in the five Brazilian ports increased by 7 month - on - month; the number of ships in the South African port increased by 1 month - on - month [19]. 5. Relationship between Freight and Commodity Prices - On August 25, Brazilian soybeans were priced at $38 per ton. On August 26, the near - month shipping quote for Brazilian soybeans was 4014 yuan per ton. On August 22, the latest quote for the BCI C10_14 route freight was $22168 per day. On August 25, the latest quote for the iron ore arrival price was $120.5 per thousand tons. On August 22, the latest quote for the BPI P3A_03 route freight was $14120 per day. On August 25, the latest quote for the steam - coal arrival price was 553.37 yuan per ton. On August 22, the handy - sized ship freight index was quoted at 713.6 points, and the ACFR quote for 4 - meter radiata pine was $116 per cubic meter [23].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The BPI freight rate index turned up week-on-week, and the increase in the (large) handy-sized ship transport market widened, with the freight rate rising by over 3% week-on-week. However, the BDI composite freight rate index and the BCI freight rate index declined month-on-month, and the decline widened [1]. - The demand for industrial product shipments remained strong, supporting the demand for Capesize and Panamax ships. The demand for agricultural product shipments also increased, especially in the import shipments of corn, soybeans, and soybean meal [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Spot Index Review - **BDI Freight Rate Index Analysis**: On August 19, the BDI composite freight rate index and the BCI freight rate index continued to decline month-on-month, while the BPI, BSI, and BHSI freight rate indices maintained an upward trend. Specifically, the BDI composite freight rate index closed at 1,964 points, down 2.63% week-on-week; the BCI freight rate index closed at 3,023 points, down 7.3% week-on-week; the BPI freight rate index closed at 1,637 points, up 2.63% week-on-week; the BSI freight rate index closed at 1,369 points, up 3.01% week-on-week; and the BHSI freight rate index closed at 708 points, up 3.06% week-on-week [4]. - **FDI Far East Dry Bulk Freight Rate Index**: On August 19, except for the continued improvement in the large handy-sized ship rental transport market, the FDI composite index and most of the sub-ship type rental freight rates declined. Among them, the FDI Capesize ship rental index had the largest decline. Specifically, the FDI composite freight rate index closed at 1,290.71 points, down 1.39% month-on-month; the FDI rental index closed at 1,566.63 points, down 1.78% month-on-month; the Capesize ship rental index closed at 1,558.15 points, down 4.49% month-on-month; the Panamax ship rental index closed at 1,586.21 points, down 0.17% month-on-month; the large handy-sized ship rental index closed at 1,558.34 points, up 0.35% month-on-month; and the FDI freight rate index closed at 1,106.76 points, down 1.02% month-on-month [9]. 3.2 Dry Bulk Shipment Situation Tracking - **Shipment Country Ship Usage Quantity**: On August 20, among the major agricultural product shipment countries, Brazil used 40 ships, Russia used 10 ships, Argentina used 21 ships, and Australia used 2 ships. Among the major industrial product shipment countries, Australia used 56 ships, Guinea used 30 ships, Indonesia used 37 ships, Russia used 24 ships, South Africa used 17 ships, Brazil used 14 ships, and the United States used 17 ships [16]. - **Shipment Volume and Ship Usage Analysis**: In terms of agricultural product shipments, 23 ships were used for corn shipments, 17 ships for wheat shipments, 16 ships for soybean shipments, 11 ships for soybean meal shipments, and 11 ships for sugar shipments. In terms of industrial product shipments, 110 ships were used for coal shipments, 81 ships for iron ore shipments, and 16 ships for other dry goods shipments. By ship type, the most Ultramax ships were needed for agricultural product shipments, with 37 ships; followed by 19 Handymax ships; and finally 20 Handy ships. For industrial product shipments, the most Capesize ships were needed, reaching 88 ships; followed by 71 Panamax ships; and finally 58 Handymax ships [16]. 3.3 Main Port Ship Quantity Tracking - In August, the number of ships docked at ports in South Africa, Indonesia, and Brazil increased month-on-month. During the week, the number of ships in China and Indonesia continued to increase month-on-month, while the number of ships docked at Australian ports continued to decrease significantly month-on-month. From August 1 to August 19, "two ports decreased, and three ports increased." The number of dry bulk ships docked at Chinese ports decreased by 9 ships month-on-month; the number of ships docked at six Australian ports decreased by 13 ships month-on-month; the number of ships docked at six Indonesian ports increased by 1 ship month-on-month; the number of ships docked at five Brazilian ports increased by 5 ships month-on-month; and the number of ships docked at one South African port increased by 3 ships month-on-month [16][17]. 3.4 Relationship between Freight and Commodity Prices - **Brazilian Soybeans**: On August 19, Brazilian soybeans were priced at $38 per ton. On August 20, the near-term shipment price of Brazilian soybeans was 4,061.54 yuan per ton. - **Iron Ore**: On August 19, the latest freight rate quote for the BCI C10_14 route was $21,986 per day. On August 19, the latest CIF price of iron ore was $118.25 per thousand tons. - **Steam Coal**: On August 19, the latest freight rate quote for the BPI P3A_03 route was $13,887 per day. On August 19, the latest CIF price of steam coal was 557.32 yuan per ton. - **Logs**: On August 19, the Handy-sized ship freight rate index was quoted at 698.6 points. On August 15, the CFR price of 4-meter radiata pine was $116 per cubic meter [21].