客车行业基本面更新 20251214 摘要 新能源公交客车海外市场迎来爆发式增长，显著提升国内龙头企业销量 及行业盈利能力。宇通等企业通过出口欧洲市场新能源公交车辆实现显 著增长，单台利润从两三万元提升至接近 10 万元。 公交客车电动化进程快于座位客车，中国公交客车电动化率接近 100%，欧洲 30%-50%，而座位客车全球新能源化率较低。未来政策 倾斜将推动座位客车电动化率逐步提高。 各国政策支持新能源公交车辆，如哥伦比亚、巴西、秘鲁等国出台政策 和补贴，推动南美、中东、东南亚等地区新能源汽车渗透率大幅提高。 全球座位客车电动化率仍然很低，未来几年内该领域将迎来显著增长。 中国和欧盟将逐步转向座位客车领域，非欧盟国家也将加速推进公共交 通系统的电动化。 新能源客车相较于传统燃油车型具有更高的毛利率和净利润。欧洲新能 源大巴平均售价可达 200 万至 250 万元，远高于燃油大巴，单台利润 也远超燃油车型。 Q&A 近年来客车行业的发展历程和现状如何？ 客车行业的发展历程可以分为两个阶段。第一个阶段是国内公交客车的新能源 化，从大约 2010 年开始，持续到 2023 年，这一阶段政府对公交客车行业提 供了 ...

Core Viewpoint - China's bus exports have shown significant growth, with a total of 55,598 buses exported from January to September 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 31.77% [1][10]. Group 1: Export Performance - In September 2025, a total of 7,228 buses were exported, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 8.71% and a year-on-year increase of 37.36% [1][3]. - The overall monthly export volume has exceeded 7,000 units for three consecutive months, indicating a trend towards higher export volumes [3]. - The export of large buses reached 4,744 units in September, a year-on-year increase of 78.61%, setting a new monthly record [5][10]. Group 2: Market Segmentation - The export of large buses has been particularly strong, while the medium bus segment saw a decline, and light buses experienced a slight recovery [5][6]. - In September, the export of seated buses and public transport buses maintained robust growth, with seated buses exporting 3,749 units (up 33.7%) and public transport buses exporting 3,473 units (up 93.16%) [8][9]. - The large public bus segment showed a significant increase, with exports reaching 2,878 units, a year-on-year surge of 124.14% [9]. Group 3: Company Rankings - Yutong led the export rankings with 10,742 units from January to September 2025, a year-on-year increase of 18.17% [10][12]. - The Xiamen Golden Dragon group followed closely with exports of 9,152 units, reflecting a substantial year-on-year growth of 77.99% [10][12]. - Ankai Bus and Foton Ouhui also showed significant growth, with Ankai's exports increasing by 178.21% year-on-year [10][12]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The future of China's bus export market appears promising, with a need for companies to align with overseas demand, optimize product structures, and enhance technology and services to capture broader market opportunities [31].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese bus export market has shown remarkable growth in June 2025, achieving a record high in exports and marking the 18th consecutive month of growth, with a total of 35,591 buses exported in the first half of the year, representing a 29.18% increase year-on-year [1][3][15]. Group 1: Overall Export Performance - In June 2025, a total of 7,335 buses were exported, a year-on-year increase of 28.17%, setting a new monthly record [1][3]. - The export of large buses exceeded 4,000 units for the first time, reaching 4,057 units, a significant increase of 37.06% year-on-year [5][6]. - The overall export volume for large, medium, and light buses continued to show positive growth, with medium buses exporting 1,700 units (up 15.02%) and light buses exporting 1,578 units (up 22.8%) [5][6]. Group 2: Segment Performance - The export of seat buses, public transport buses, and school buses all experienced year-on-year growth, while other bus categories saw declines [8]. - Public transport buses saw a remarkable increase of 73.99% in June, with 3,518 units exported, marking the highest monthly export volume of the year [8][29]. - The export of light seat buses showed the most significant growth, with a year-on-year increase of 52.95%, while large seat buses also maintained a positive growth trend [21][27]. Group 3: Company Rankings - Yutong Bus regained its position as the top exporter in the first half of 2025, exporting 6,020 units, despite a year-on-year decline of 7.38% [15][16]. - Xiamen King Long and Xiamen King Travel ranked second and third, with significant year-on-year increases of 56.43% and 73.59%, respectively [15][16]. - Ankai Bus made a notable leap in rankings, achieving a year-on-year growth of 129.48% and moving up to sixth place in the export rankings [15][16]. Group 4: Monthly Export Insights - In June 2025, the top ten exporting companies included Yutong (2,154 units), Xiamen King Long (1,279 units), and Ankai (776 units), with Yutong leading significantly [18][32]. - The public transport bus export volume in June reached 3,518 units, the highest of the year, just shy of the previous December's peak [29][32]. - The export performance of various companies in the bus segment indicates a competitive landscape, with several companies showing strong growth and shifting rankings [15][30].

Investment Rating - The report recommends a "Buy" rating for the bus sector, specifically favoring Yutong and King Long [3][4]. Core Insights - The driving factors for the current bus cycle include China's automotive manufacturing industry becoming a global leader in technology output, with overseas market contributions expected to replicate the domestic market within 3-5 years [2]. - The domestic market has seen an end to price wars, which is expected to boost demand due to tourism recovery and public transport upgrades, potentially returning to 2019 levels [2]. - The report anticipates that the bus industry can achieve new profit highs due to the absence of price wars, a concentrated market structure, and favorable cost trends in lithium carbonate [6]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - In June 2025, the overall production of buses in China reached 50,000 units, with year-on-year and month-on-month increases of 24% and 14% respectively [9][10]. - The wholesale volume for June was 53,000 units, also reflecting a year-on-year and month-on-month growth of 23% [9][10]. - The terminal sales for buses in June were 45,000 units, with a year-on-year and month-on-month increase of 6% [16]. Company Performance - Yutong's June sales were 5,919 units, showing a year-on-year increase of 94% and a month-on-month increase of 25% [63]. - King Long's June sales were 4,283 units, with a year-on-year increase of 20% but a month-on-month decrease of 10% [68]. - Both companies are expected to benefit from increased domestic and export sales, with Yutong maintaining a market share of 28% in the domestic bus market [47]. Export Dynamics - In June 2025, the export of buses reached 5,594 units, marking a year-on-year increase of 30% but a month-on-month decrease of 8% [48]. - The export market is dominated by Yutong and King Long, with Yutong exporting 1,235 units and holding a 39% market share [57].

Core Viewpoint - The export performance of China's bus industry in the first four months of 2025 shows significant growth, with a total of 21,447 buses exported, marking a year-on-year increase of 30.81% compared to the same period last year [1][12]. Group 1: Overall Export Performance - In April 2025, a total of 5,736 buses were exported, achieving a year-on-year growth of 26.71% [1][5]. - Since January 2024, China's bus exports have experienced 16 consecutive months of year-on-year growth, indicating a sustained strong market momentum [1][5]. Group 2: Segment Performance - In April 2025, the export figures for different bus types were as follows: large buses 3,218 (down 1.8%), medium buses 965 (up 40.67%), and light buses 1,553 (up 175.35%) [5][6]. - The significant increase in light bus exports is attributed to a low base in the previous year, where only 564 units were exported [5][6]. Group 3: Functional Attributes - In April 2025, the export volumes by function were: seat buses 3,345 (up 18.03%), public buses 1,751 (up 9.44%), school buses 51 (down 30.14%), and other buses 589 (up 2,845%) [7][9]. - The seat bus segment continues to show consistent growth, while public buses have rebounded after a brief decline earlier in the year [7][8]. Group 4: Company Performance - The top five companies in bus exports from January to April 2025 were Xiamen Golden Dragon, Xiamen King Long, Yutong, Zhongtong, and Suzhou King Long Haige, with Xiamen Golden Dragon leading the market [12][13]. - Xiamen Golden Dragon and Xiamen King Long both exported around 3,000 units, with a narrowing gap in their export volumes [12][13]. Group 5: Market Dynamics - The competition among the top companies is intensifying, with notable performances from Ankai and BYD, both of which have shown significant year-on-year growth [12][15]. - The overall bus export market is characterized by a "steady improvement with structural differentiation," indicating varying performance across different segments [10][31].