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今世缘(603369)季报点评:大众价位表现稳健 主动降速出清
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-11-02 08:28
Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in total revenue and net profit for Q1-Q3 2025, with total revenue of 8.882 billion and net profit of 2.549 billion, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 10.66% and 17.39% respectively. The Q3 figures showed a more significant decline, with total revenue at 1.931 billion and net profit at 320 million, down 26.78% and 48.69% year-on-year [1][2]. Revenue and Profitability - For Q1-Q3 2025, the company's total revenue, net profit, and net profit excluding non-recurring items were 8.882 billion, 2.549 billion, and 2.545 billion respectively, showing a year-on-year decline of 10.66%, 17.39%, and 17.23% [1]. - In Q3 2025, total revenue was 1.931 billion, with net profit at 320 million and net profit excluding non-recurring items at 321 million, reflecting year-on-year declines of 26.78%, 48.69%, and 48.95% respectively [1]. Product Performance - The proportion of premium products (特A类及以上) continues to increase, with revenue from these products accounting for 94.83% of total revenue in Q1-Q3 2025, up 0.44 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - Despite external pressures, the company's mass-market products, particularly the淡雅系列, are expected to perform well, while core high-end products may see a decline due to market conditions [2]. Regional Strategy - The company is focusing on regional expansion and market penetration, with Q1-Q3 2025 revenue from domestic markets down 12.40% and from external markets up 0.06% year-on-year. In Q3 2025, domestic revenue fell by 29.79%, while external revenue decreased by 13.79% [2]. - The company has increased its number of distributors, adding 4 in the domestic market and 80 in external markets by the end of Q3 2025 compared to the end of 2024 [2]. Cost and Margin Analysis - The gross margin for Q1-Q3 2025 decreased by 0.5 percentage points to 73.8%, with a more significant drop in Q3 to 75.0% [3]. - The sales expense ratio increased by 2.8 percentage points to 18.1% for Q1-Q3 2025, with Q3 showing a 9.5 percentage point increase to 30.0%, primarily due to increased marketing expenditures [3]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from strong demand in the Jiangsu market and stable external market expansion, maintaining a long-term growth momentum [3]. - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted downwards, with expected revenues of 10.15 billion, 10.67 billion, and 11.36 billion respectively, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 12.1% in 2025 but growth in subsequent years [3]. - The estimated EPS for 2025-2027 is projected to be 2.11, 2.21, and 2.31 yuan, with a downward revision of 15% for 2025 [3].
今世缘(603369):25H1大众价位稳增 省外重点布局
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-08-26 04:34
Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, with a focus on maintaining growth through strategic market expansion and product upgrades despite external pressures [1][2][3]. Financial Performance - For H1 2025, total revenue, net profit attributable to shareholders, and net profit excluding non-recurring items were 6.95 billion, 2.23 billion, and 2.22 billion respectively, showing year-on-year declines of 4.8%, 9.5%, and 9.1% [1]. - In Q2 2025, total revenue, net profit attributable to shareholders, and net profit excluding non-recurring items were 1.85 billion, 0.58 billion, and 0.58 billion respectively, with year-on-year declines of 29.7%, 37.1%, and 36.5% [1]. Product and Market Performance - The core product line has been upgraded, and new products are being introduced, with the mass-market products represented by the "Te A" category performing well under pressure [1][2]. - In H1 2025, revenue from "Te A" and above accounted for 95.1% of total revenue, with a slight year-on-year increase of 0.4 percentage points [2]. - The company is focusing on regional market penetration, with H1 2025 revenue from domestic markets down 6.1% and from external markets up 4.8% [2]. Profitability and Cost Management - The gross margin for H1 2025 decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 73.4%, while the sales expense ratio increased by 1.4 percentage points to 14.8% [2]. - The net profit margin for H1 2025 was 32.1%, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 1.6 percentage points [2]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from strong demand in the Jiangsu market and steady expansion in external markets, with a long-term growth potential [3]. - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted downward, with expected revenues of 11.07 billion, 11.64 billion, and 12.39 billion respectively, reflecting year-on-year changes of -4.1%, +5.1%, and +6.4% [3]. - The target price for the company is set at 54.12 yuan, maintaining a "buy" rating based on growth opportunities in both domestic and external markets [3].
今世缘(603369)2024年年报与25年一季报点评:稳健收官 市占率继续提升
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-05-07 08:38
Core Viewpoint - The company reported a revenue increase of 14.31% year-on-year for 2024, with total revenue reaching 11.546 billion yuan and a net profit of 3.412 billion yuan, reflecting an 8.8% increase [1][2] Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, total revenue was 1.604 billion yuan, a decrease of 7.56% year-on-year, and net profit was 326 million yuan, down 34.84% [1] - For Q1 2025, total revenue was 5.099 billion yuan, an increase of 9.17% year-on-year, with a net profit of 1.644 billion yuan, up 7.27% [1] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 1.2 yuan per share, totaling 1.496 billion yuan, with a payout ratio of approximately 43.85% [1] Group 2: Product and Regional Performance - In 2024, revenue from different product categories was as follows: Special A+ products 7.49 billion yuan (+15.2%), Special A products 3.35 billion yuan (+16.6%), A products 420 million yuan (+2.0%), and B products 140 million yuan (-11.1%) [2] - The overall white liquor sales volume increased by 19.5% year-on-year, while the average price decreased by 4.3%, indicating a shift in product structure [2] - Revenue by region in 2024 showed growth in key markets: Huai'an 2.24 billion yuan (+12.3%), Nanjing 2.63 billion yuan (+11.7%), and significant growth in Suzhong (+21.2%) [2] Group 3: Profitability Metrics - The gross margin for 2024 was 74.7%, down 3.6 percentage points year-on-year, while for Q1 2025, it was 73.6%, down 0.6 percentage points [3] - The net profit margin for 2024 was 29.6%, decreasing by 1.5 percentage points year-on-year, and for Q1 2025, it was 32.2%, down 0.6 percentage points [3] - As of Q1 2025, contract liabilities were 540 million yuan, showing a year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter decline, likely due to proactive channel management [3] Group 4: Future Outlook - The company aims for a revenue growth of 5%-12% in 2025, with net profit growth slightly lower than revenue growth [4] - The net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been revised down by 12% and 14% to 3.66 billion yuan and 4.00 billion yuan, respectively, with a new forecast for 2027 at 4.38 billion yuan [4] - The current price-to-earnings ratio is projected at 16, 15, and 13 times for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, indicating a positive outlook for market share growth [4]