Core Viewpoint - CICC has downgraded the net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 for Blokko (00325) by 19% and 17% to 650 million and 870 million yuan respectively, while introducing a net profit forecast of 1.07 billion yuan for 2027. The target price has been reduced by 26% to 100 HKD, indicating a potential upside of 40% based on adjusted P/E ratios for 2026 and 2027 [1]. Group 1: Company Current Situation - CICC conducted a company survey and engaged in in-depth discussions with management regarding strategic reviews, new product performance, and international expansion. The firm believes that the company will focus on trending categories in 2026, which is expected to enhance performance certainty, with a continued emphasis on new product categories and international market performance [2]. Group 2: Focus on Key Categories in 2026 - In 2025, the company explored business boundaries through a global strategy targeting all demographics and price points. While the 9.9 yuan products for the lower market performed well, some categories, such as female-targeted products, did not meet internal goals, which diluted resources and affected profit performance. In 2026, the company plans to stabilize the new product launch rhythm and improve the success rate of individual products. Financially, with a mature team structure and stable personnel size, operational leverage is expected to manifest. The company aims to control the proportion of low-margin products, which, combined with economies of scale, is anticipated to stabilize and improve gross margins [3]. Group 3: Successful Development of Building Block Vehicles - The company has established building block vehicles as one of its two core strategic categories alongside building block figures, planning to maintain a monthly launch rhythm in 2026. This category is expected to contribute positively to gross margins. The core IP operation for building block figures continues to deepen, with the Transformers series effectively covering price points from 9.9 yuan to 249 yuan, while new SKU specifications for Ultraman are stimulating demand. The company’s all-demographic strategy is expected to see an increase in adult-targeted products in the second half of 2025 [4]. Group 4: Strong International Performance - In the second half of 2025, the company’s overseas business is expected to continue high growth, with a projected doubling in performance. Thanks to pricing strategies and product strength, the company maintains a price advantage despite North American tariffs and has successfully entered mainstream channels like Walmart. North America is anticipated to become the largest single overseas market in 2026, while the company plans to expand its presence in Southeast Asia, particularly in Thailand and Vietnam, supported by logistics and warehousing. Additionally, the European team is currently being built, indicating significant future potential [5].

Core Viewpoint - The company is expected to experience a slowdown in traditional business operations in 2025, but new product lines such as the 9.9 yuan Starry Edition and adult-oriented products are anticipated to drive revenue growth in the second half of 2025 and into 2026, maintaining a positive growth outlook [1][2]. Group 1: Product Development and IP Expansion - The company has expanded its IP portfolio from 14 in 2024 to 24 in 2025, with a total of approximately 63 IPs available for future development as of the first half of 2025 [1]. - In 2025, the company launched over 900 new SKUs, with a significant increase in new product releases expected in Q4, particularly for major product lines like Ultraman and Transformers [1]. - The introduction of the new building vehicle category in November 2025, priced at 16.9 yuan per box, is expected to contribute additional revenue in 2026, leveraging the growing global vehicle toy market [3]. Group 2: International Expansion and Revenue Growth - The company has actively pursued a global strategy, achieving overseas revenue of 111 million yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 899%, with overseas revenue accounting for 8.3% of total revenue [2]. - Revenue growth in overseas markets was particularly strong in Asia (excluding China), North America, and other regions, with increases of 652%, 2136%, and 595% respectively [2]. - The company has showcased its products at international toy fairs in various countries, enhancing its global presence and brand recognition [2]. Group 3: Financial Projections and Valuation - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2025-2027, estimating adjusted profits of 650 million, 871 million, and 1.16 billion yuan respectively [3]. - The adjusted EPS for the same period is projected to be 2.61, 3.50, and 4.65 yuan [3]. - The company is assigned a target price of 98.0 HKD for 2026, based on a 25x target PE, reflecting its strong growth potential as a premium IP commercialization platform [3].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of HKD 98.00 [1][5] Core Views - The company is expected to see growth in 2026 driven by its "all demographics + all price points + globalization" strategy, with new product lines such as building cars and international expansion contributing significantly [2][3] - Despite a weaker performance in traditional toy segments in 2025, new business lines like the 9.9 yuan Starry Edition and adult-oriented products are anticipated to boost revenue in the second half of 2025 and continue into 2026 [2] - The company has expanded its IP matrix, increasing the number of commercialized IPs from 14 in 2024 to 24 in 2025, with a total of approximately 63 IPs available for future development [2] - The introduction of new product categories, particularly building cars, is expected to contribute additional revenue in 2026, with the global vehicle toy market projected to reach RMB 102.8 billion [4] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profit Forecast - The adjusted profit forecast for 2025-2027 is projected at RMB 6.50 billion, RMB 8.71 billion, and RMB 11.60 billion respectively, with adjusted EPS of RMB 2.61, RMB 3.50, and RMB 4.65 [5][11] - Revenue is expected to grow significantly, with estimates of RMB 2.90 billion in 2025 and RMB 3.77 billion in 2026, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 29.42% and 30.08% respectively [11][19] International Expansion - The company has made significant strides in its global strategy, achieving overseas revenue of RMB 1.11 billion in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 899%, with overseas revenue accounting for 8.3% of total revenue [3] - The company has showcased its products at international toy fairs in various countries, enhancing its global presence and brand recognition [3] Product Development - The company has accelerated its product launch schedule, with over 900 new SKUs introduced in 2025, particularly in the fourth quarter, which is expected to positively impact revenue in early 2026 [2] - The new building car products launched in November 2025 are expected to leverage high-density materials and innovative designs, enhancing user experience and driving sales growth [4]