Core Viewpoint - The second-hand housing market is the most accurate reflection of the real estate market's current state, and this perspective will continue to gain significance as new homes eventually become second-hand properties [1][3]. Group 1: Company Performance - Beike's Q3 financial report revealed a net profit of 747 million yuan, a year-on-year decline of 36.1%, and an adjusted net profit of 1.286 billion yuan, down 27.8% year-on-year [3]. - The total transaction volume for Beike's second-hand housing business reached 505.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.8%, but revenue decreased by 3.6% to approximately 6 billion yuan [3]. - Beike's new housing business saw a transaction volume of 196.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 13.7%, with revenue dropping 14.1% to 6.6 billion yuan [3][4]. Group 2: Market Trends - The second-hand housing market is experiencing a price drop, leading to increased transaction volumes as buyers find better value, although revenue is declining due to a higher proportion of transactions coming from franchise stores [6][8]. - The overall real estate market is shrinking, impacting Beike's profitability despite its market dominance [7]. - The shift towards "fourth-generation residential" projects is reducing developers' reliance on intermediaries, leading to lower commission rates for agents [8]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Beike's non-real estate business, including home decoration and rental services, is performing well, with home decoration revenue at 4.3 billion yuan and rental income growing by 45.3% to 5.7 billion yuan [8][9]. - The real estate industry is transitioning from a focus on property transactions to comprehensive residential services, indicating that Beike may expand its offerings to include furniture and appliances [10]. - Future home-buying decisions will increasingly prioritize living quality, rental yield, and property management, with older neighborhoods likely facing further depreciation [11][12].

机构：第一上海 研究员：胡钰 2025Q3 经调整净利润12.9 亿元，同比下降27.8%：2025Q3 公司总交易额为7367 亿元，同比基本持平。 期内录得净收入231 亿元，同比增加2.1%。期内毛利率为21.4%，同比下降1.3 个百分点，主要由于贡献 利润率较高的存量房及新房业务收入占比下降以及存量房的贡献利润率下降的影响。期内整体运营费用 为43 亿元，同比减少1.8%，环比减少6.5%，公司降本增效成果逐步显现。期内公司经调整净利润12.9 亿元，同比下降27.8%。 一赛道业务韧性十足，成本费用节降稳步推进：2025Q3 公司存量房交易额为5056 亿元，同比增长 5.8%，实现净收入60 亿元，同比下降3.6%，收入增速低于交易额增速主要因为非链家的交易额占比提 升。贡献利润率为39.0%，同比下降2 个百分点，主要由于存量房收入减少带来的杠杆效应以及固定人 工成本同比增加所致；环比下降约1 个百分点，主要因为固定的人工成本环比降幅低于营收的降幅。期 内公司的固定人工成本环比下降6.5 个百分点，公司成本控制正在逐步兑现。新房交易额为1963 亿元， 同比下降13.7%；净收入66 亿元，同 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating with a target price of HKD 60.00 / USD 22.80, representing a potential upside of 36.2% / 36.8% from the current price [2][4]. Core Insights - The company has demonstrated significant cost reduction and efficiency improvements, leading to profitability in its "two wings" business segments [4]. - The adjusted net profit for Q3 2025 was CNY 1.29 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 27.8%, while total transaction volume remained stable at CNY 736.7 billion [4]. - The company is focusing on enhancing quality, scale, and efficiency, with a solid cash reserve of approximately CNY 70 billion, which supports its stock buyback initiatives [4]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2023 to 2027 show a growth trajectory, with expected revenues of CNY 77.78 billion in 2023, increasing to CNY 113.32 billion by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 16.4% [3][5]. - The net profit is projected to decline from CNY 5.89 billion in 2023 to CNY 3.60 billion in 2025, before rebounding to CNY 8.88 billion in 2027, indicating a recovery phase [3][5]. - The adjusted net profit is expected to follow a similar trend, with estimates of CNY 9.80 billion in 2023, dropping to CNY 5.76 billion in 2025, and then rising to CNY 9.67 billion in 2027 [3][5]. Business Performance - The company's existing home transaction volume reached CNY 5,056 billion in Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 5.8%, while new home transaction volume was CNY 1,963 billion, down 13.7% [4]. - Non-property transaction services have increased their revenue contribution to 45%, with a profit contribution of 39.7%, indicating a diversification in revenue streams [4]. - The home decoration and rental businesses achieved profitability at the city level, contributing positively to the overall financial performance [4].

Group 1: Circle Internet Group, Inc (CRCL) - Circle is transitioning from a single product provider to a comprehensive platform service provider, leveraging its compliance advantages and strong ecosystem partnerships[8] - The target price for Circle is set at $125.00, indicating a potential upside of 27.2% from the current price of $98.30[3] - The company expects total revenue to grow from $1.45 billion in 2023 to $4.30 billion by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 38.54%[12] Group 2: HIMS & HERS HEALTH (HIMS) - HIMS reported a 49% year-over-year revenue increase in Q3 2025, reaching $600 million[14] - The target price for HIMS is set at $56.80, representing a 43% upside from the current price of $39.75[16] - The company aims to achieve $1 billion in revenue for its HERS segment by 2026, with a long-term goal of $6.5 billion by 2030[16] Group 3: 贝壳 (BEKE) - 贝壳's total transaction volume for Q3 2025 was approximately 736.7 billion RMB, showing a stable year-over-year performance[22] - The target price for 贝壳 is set at 60.00 HKD, indicating a potential upside of 38.3% from the current price of 43.54 HKD[27] - The company has successfully reduced operational costs, with a 1.8% decrease in overall operating expenses in Q3 2025[22]

Core Viewpoint - The company maintains a "buy" rating due to its increasing market share in the brokerage business, stable industry position, and advantageous valuation compared to smaller competitors [1] Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company reported a total transaction value (GTV) of 736.7 billion yuan, unchanged year-on-year; net revenue was 23.05 billion yuan, up 2.1% year-on-year; and adjusted net profit was 1.29 billion yuan, down 27.8% year-on-year [2] - The company's gross profit margin for Q3 2025 was 21.4%, a decrease of 1.3 percentage points year-on-year; the combined sales, management, and R&D expense ratio was 18.4%, down 1.1 percentage points year-on-year [2] Market Segmentation - The company experienced a 5.8% year-on-year increase in second-hand housing GTV, totaling 505.6 billion yuan, while new housing GTV decreased by 13.7% to 196.3 billion yuan [3] - The company’s home decoration and rental businesses saw significant revenue growth, with home decoration revenue at 4.3 billion yuan (up 2.1% year-on-year) and rental revenue at 5.73 billion yuan (up 45.3% year-on-year) [3] Operational Insights - The number of active stores reached 59,000, an increase of 26% year-on-year, and the number of active brokers was 472,000, up 11.4% year-on-year [3] - The company’s rental business achieved a profit contribution of 500 million yuan, a substantial increase of 185.9% year-on-year, indicating strong growth in the rental segment [3] Future Outlook - The company faces significant GTV pressure in Q4 2025 due to declining transaction activity in both the primary and secondary markets, leading to a downward revision of revenue and profit forecasts for 2025-2027 [4] - The adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 3.6 billion yuan, 5.4 billion yuan, and 6.4 billion yuan, respectively, reflecting a decrease from previous estimates [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2] Core Views - The brokerage business remains robust, and the profitability of emerging businesses is improving. The company has a strong platform barrier and is enhancing its brokerage framework while securing housing resources [7] - The company faces significant GTV pressure in Q4 2025 due to a noticeable decline in transaction activity in both the primary and secondary markets, which may impact brokerage revenue [7] - The company has adjusted its revenue forecasts downward for 2025-2027, with net profit estimates revised to 3.6 billion, 5.4 billion, and 6.4 billion yuan respectively [7] Financial Data and Earnings Forecast - Revenue projections for 2023 to 2027 are as follows: - 2023: 77.777 billion yuan - 2024: 93.457 billion yuan - 2025E: 94.606 billion yuan - 2026E: 94.464 billion yuan - 2027E: 100.799 billion yuan - Net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders is forecasted as: - 2023: 5.883 billion yuan - 2024: 4.065 billion yuan - 2025E: 3.585 billion yuan - 2026E: 5.361 billion yuan - 2027E: 6.371 billion yuan - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be: - 2023: 1.63 yuan - 2024: 1.15 yuan - 2025E: 1.04 yuan - 2026E: 1.55 yuan - 2027E: 1.84 yuan [6][8]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that Beike has successfully navigated the challenges of the real estate market through a long-term survival philosophy, focusing on building foundational capabilities and restoring industry trust, even during market adjustments [3][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The Chinese real estate market is undergoing a "K-shaped recovery," characterized by significant differentiation between cities and even within the same city, marking the end of the previous era of uniform price increases [5]. - Beike's performance in Q2 2025 was notable, with a total transaction volume (GTV) of 878.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.7%, and net revenue of 26 billion yuan, up 11.3% [6][8]. Group 2: Business Model and Strategy - Beike's stock business has become a stable anchor, with Q2 GTV for existing homes reaching 583.5 billion yuan and net revenue of 6.7 billion yuan, showcasing its resilience during market fluctuations [10]. - The company has adopted a light-asset platform model, with 58,664 active stores and nearly 500,000 active agents by mid-2025, emphasizing efficiency through scientific management and AI tools [11][12]. - Beike's "One Body, Three Wings" strategy aims to create a comprehensive ecosystem covering the entire housing lifecycle, with significant contributions from home decoration, rental, and quality development services [13][15]. Group 3: Financial Performance and Capital Allocation - Beike has executed a stock buyback plan, repurchasing 2.5 billion USD worth of shares in Q2 2025, with a total buyback amount reaching 2.02 billion USD since the plan's initiation in September 2022, representing 10.3% of the total share capital [22][23]. - The increase in buyback authorization from 3 billion to 5 billion USD indicates a long-term capital allocation strategy, reflecting management's confidence in the company's value [25][26]. Group 4: Long-term Vision and Market Position - Beike's approach to transforming low-frequency real estate transactions into high-frequency interactions through a comprehensive service ecosystem has established a strong platform barrier, enhancing matching efficiency and user engagement [30]. - The company's long-termism philosophy is seen as a key factor in its ability to withstand market fluctuations and achieve sustained growth, providing valuable insights for other low-frequency industries [31].

Core Insights - Beike (02423.HK) reported positive growth in total transaction volume and net income in its semi-annual report, driven by the expansion of its store network [1] - The company aims to enhance efficiency while maintaining stable growth, with a significant increase in its share buyback program from $3 billion to $5 billion, extended until August 31, 2028 [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, Beike achieved a total transaction volume of 1.7224 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.3% [1] - The net income for the same period was 49.3 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 24.1% [1] - Net profit was reported at 2.162 billion yuan, slightly down from 2.333 billion yuan in the previous year [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The Chinese real estate market has maintained stable housing transaction volumes, although the second quarter saw a market adjustment [1] - Beike's active store count reached 58,664, a year-on-year increase of over 32%, with active agents numbering 491,573, up over 19% [1] Group 3: Strategic Focus - Beike's CEO emphasized the need to adapt to changing consumer demands and the importance of efficiency-driven development, leveraging AI technology for productivity improvements [2] - The company is exploring various initiatives to enhance operational efficiency, including AI integration in home rental services and refining its C2M capabilities through the Beihome business segment [2] - Beike reiterated its commitment to not becoming a developer, focusing instead on a light commercial model, with limited self-operated projects [3]

Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company reported a total transaction value (GTV) of 843.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 34.0% [1] - The company's net revenue reached 23.33 billion yuan, up 42.4% year-on-year, with a gross profit of 4.82 billion yuan, reflecting a 17.0% increase [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 860 million yuan, a significant rise of 98.2% year-on-year, while the adjusted net profit was 1.39 billion yuan, showing a slight increase of 0.1% [1] Business Segments - The existing home transaction value was 580.3 billion yuan, growing by 28.1% year-on-year, with the second-hand home revenue at 6.87 billion yuan, up 20.0% [2] - New home transaction value reached 232.2 billion yuan, a remarkable increase of 53.0%, with new home revenue at 8.07 billion yuan, reflecting a 64.2% rise [2] - The company’s home decoration and furniture segment generated net revenue of 2.95 billion yuan, up 22.3% year-on-year, while the rental services segment achieved net revenue of 5.09 billion yuan, a 93.8% increase [3] Operational Metrics - The number of active stores increased to 55,210, a year-on-year growth of 29.6%, and the number of active agents reached 491,000, up 23.0% [2] - The contribution profit margin for the existing home business was 38.1%, down 6.4 percentage points year-on-year, while the new home business had a contribution profit margin of 23.4%, up 1.1 percentage points [2] Strategic Outlook - The company is focusing on enhancing its brokerage business and has established a strong platform barrier, aiming to reshape the underlying framework of brokerage and lock in housing resources [4] - Future growth is expected from home decoration, rental services, and leveraging big data to expand business dimensions [4] - The company maintains a positive outlook on its market share growth and profitability across various segments, with projected net profits for 2025-2027 being 6.2 billion, 7.5 billion, and 9.1 billion yuan respectively [4]

Core Viewpoint - The company has approved the estimated daily related transactions for 2025, which will be submitted for shareholder meeting approval, ensuring that these transactions are fair and do not harm the interests of shareholders, especially minority and non-related shareholders [1][2]. Group 1: Daily Related Transactions Approval - The board of directors has passed the proposal for the estimated daily related transactions for 2025, with all related directors abstaining from voting, resulting in a unanimous approval from the six participating directors [1][2]. - The estimated daily related transactions for 2025 are deemed objective and fair, aligning with the company's interests [1][2]. Group 2: 2024 Daily Related Transactions Execution - In 2024, the company executed daily related transactions within the scope defined in the proposal, with specific transactions involving China Everbright Group and its subsidiaries [2][3]. - The company reported a rental income of 364.29 million RMB and rental expenses of 2,992.55 million RMB, with the actual execution amount for the year being 14,757.35 million RMB [2][3]. - The total cash inflow from securities and financial products transactions was 879.80 million RMB, while the cash outflow was 753.94 million RMB [2][3]. Group 3: Estimated Transactions for 2025 - The estimated related transactions for 2025 include rental income of 400 million RMB and rental expenses of 10,500 million RMB [4]. - The expected cash inflow from securities and financial products transactions is 3,800 million RMB, with cash outflow estimated at 3,700 million RMB [4]. - The company anticipates providing securities and financial services with an estimated income of 38,500 million RMB and expenses of 15,200 million RMB [4]. Group 4: Related Parties and Relationships - As of the end of 2024, China Everbright Group and its subsidiary, China Everbright Holdings, hold 45.88% of the company's shares [5][6]. - The company engages in transactions with related parties, including directors and senior management, adhering to legal and regulatory requirements [5][6]. Group 5: Pricing Policies and Transaction Purposes - The pricing for related transactions is based on market rates and fair negotiation, ensuring no harm to the company's interests or those of non-related shareholders [9][10]. - Daily related transactions are essential for normal business operations, enhancing the company's competitiveness without negatively impacting its independence [10].