Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent stock sell-off by Beike's management and the company's significant share buyback efforts, indicating a pivotal moment for Beike amid industry challenges and strategic transformations [3][4][5]. Management Share Changes - Beike's co-founder and CEO Peng Yongdong plans to sell 1.4 million ADS, equivalent to 4.2 million Class A ordinary shares, valued at approximately $24.05 million (around 170 million RMB) to fulfill a previously announced donation plan of 9 million shares [4][6]. - This marks Peng's first share reduction since Beike's IPO in 2020, leading to a drop in Beike's stock prices on both Hong Kong and US markets [4][5]. Share Buyback Initiatives - Beike has accelerated its share buyback program, spending nearly $30 million in December alone, with a total buyback amount reaching $280 million in Q3 2023, a 38.3% year-on-year increase [5][18]. - Despite these buybacks, Beike's stock price remains significantly lower than its peak of nearly $80 per share at the time of its IPO [5]. Financial Performance Overview - Beike's financial performance has been under pressure, with a notable decline in net income and profitability in recent years. In 2021, net income grew by nearly 15%, but profits turned to losses [9]. - In 2022, net income decreased by 25%, with net losses widening from 500 million RMB to 1.4 billion RMB. However, in 2023, net income increased by 28%, but operating profit and net profit were adjusted downward for 2024 [9][12]. Business Segment Analysis - The core business segments, including existing and new housing, are under pressure, contributing to overall profitability challenges. The rental service segment is the only growth area, with a 45.3% increase in net income [12][16]. - The existing housing and new housing segments accounted for 55% of total revenue, but their declining performance is impacting Beike's overall profitability [13][16]. Strategic Adjustments - Beike has been diversifying its business strategy since 2021, introducing home decoration and rental services, and later adding residential development to mitigate reliance on traditional real estate brokerage [17]. - Despite these efforts, new business segments have not yet achieved significant scale or profitability, and the company is facing substantial operational pressures, including rumors of large-scale layoffs [17][18]. Management Response to Challenges - In response to performance pressures, Beike has initiated a share buyback program to restore investor confidence, with a total buyback amount of approximately $2.3 billion since the program's inception [18]. - The management's decision to sell shares for charitable purposes partially addresses previous controversies regarding executive compensation amid declining performance [19].

Core Viewpoint - Guosheng Securities initiates a "Buy" rating for Beike-W (02423), highlighting its position as a leading residential service platform in China, supported by a unique ACN cooperation network and a vast "property dictionary" database, which creates strong competitive barriers [1] Group 1: Performance Overview - Beike, as the first stock of China's residential service platform, has a diverse business model including existing home transactions, new home transactions, home decoration, rental services, and emerging businesses, with projected revenue contributions in 2024 being 30%, 36%, 16%, 15%, and 3% respectively [1] - The company has achieved a total transaction volume of 3.3 trillion yuan and revenue of 93.5 billion yuan in 2024, with a three-year CAGR of 24% and adjusted net profits of 2.9 billion, 9.8 billion, and 7.2 billion yuan from 2022 to 2024 [1] Group 2: Competitive Barriers - The construction of the ACN network and the property dictionary has redefined the industry ecosystem, creating competitive barriers that are difficult to replicate due to the significant time and capital investment required [2] - The property dictionary, which has recorded over 289 million real housing units by 2024, serves as a foundational data asset for the company, enhancing its platform capabilities [2] Group 3: Market Performance - In the existing home transaction service, the company's GTV for 2023, 2024, and the first half of 2025 is projected to be 2 trillion, 2.2 trillion, and 1.2 trillion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 28.6%, 10.8%, and 13.7%, achieving a market share of 31.1% in 2024 [3] - For new home transactions, the GTV is expected to be 1 trillion, 0.97 trillion, and 0.49 trillion yuan for the same periods, with year-on-year growth rates of 6.6%, -3.3%, and 26%, outperforming national residential sales growth rates [3] Group 4: Home Decoration Business - The home decoration business is rapidly expanding, with GTV of 16.9 billion and 7.5 billion yuan for 2024 and the first half of 2025, reflecting year-on-year growth of 27% and 16.5% respectively, and profit margins increasing to 30.7% and 32.3% [4] - The synergy from the real estate transaction business significantly reduces customer acquisition costs, enhancing profitability and positioning the home decoration business as an industry leader [4] Group 5: Investment Recommendations - Projected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 94.6 billion, 95.3 billion, and 100.5 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 1.2%, 0.8%, and 5.5%, while net profits are expected to be 3.71 billion, 5.28 billion, and 6.1 billion yuan, with growth rates of -8.7%, 42.4%, and 15.5% [5] - The target price calculated using the DCF model is 61.3 yuan per share, corresponding to a PE ratio of 40.7 times for 2026, indicating a price upside of 54.5% [6]

Core Viewpoint - The company is actively developing non-housing businesses to mitigate cyclical risks and is shifting to a defensive posture by enhancing cost efficiency and increasing shareholder returns to improve investment value [1] Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company's net profit was 747 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 36.1%, while adjusted net profit was 1.286 billion yuan, down 27.8% [2] - The total transaction volume for the company in Q3 2025 was 736.7 billion yuan, remaining stable year-on-year, with net revenue of 23.1 billion yuan, an increase of 2.1% [1] - The company's adjusted net profit projections for 2025-2027 are 5.719 billion, 6.244 billion, and 6.995 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding net profits of 3.832 billion, 4.153 billion, and 4.773 billion yuan [1] Business Segments - In the real estate transaction service sector, the company is piloting a tenant-separation mechanism in Shanghai to enhance marketing and sales capabilities for sellers [2] - The housing rental service is integrating AI with operations, contributing over 100 million yuan in profit in Q3 2025, with both home decoration and rental services achieving profitability at the city level [2] - The company's existing housing business net revenue was 6 billion yuan in Q3 2025, a decrease of 3.6%, while the total transaction volume for existing housing was 505.6 billion yuan, an increase of 5.8% [2] New Housing Business - The new housing business net revenue was 6.6 billion yuan in Q3 2025, down 14.1%, with total transaction volume at 196.3 billion yuan, a decrease of 13.7% [3] - The GTV for the new housing business under the Beilian model accounted for 81.7% in Q3 2025, showing a slight increase from the previous quarter [3] Share Buyback - The company has actively implemented a share buyback plan, with a quarterly buyback amount reaching 281 million USD, the highest in nearly two years [3] - As of the end of Q3 2025, the total amount spent on buybacks this year was approximately 675 million USD, a year-on-year increase of 15.7%, representing about 3% of the total share capital as of the end of 2024 [3]

Core Viewpoint - The second-hand housing market is the most accurate reflection of the real estate market's current state, and this perspective will continue to gain significance as new homes eventually become second-hand properties [1][3]. Group 1: Company Performance - Beike's Q3 financial report revealed a net profit of 747 million yuan, a year-on-year decline of 36.1%, and an adjusted net profit of 1.286 billion yuan, down 27.8% year-on-year [3]. - The total transaction volume for Beike's second-hand housing business reached 505.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.8%, but revenue decreased by 3.6% to approximately 6 billion yuan [3]. - Beike's new housing business saw a transaction volume of 196.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 13.7%, with revenue dropping 14.1% to 6.6 billion yuan [3][4]. Group 2: Market Trends - The second-hand housing market is experiencing a price drop, leading to increased transaction volumes as buyers find better value, although revenue is declining due to a higher proportion of transactions coming from franchise stores [6][8]. - The overall real estate market is shrinking, impacting Beike's profitability despite its market dominance [7]. - The shift towards "fourth-generation residential" projects is reducing developers' reliance on intermediaries, leading to lower commission rates for agents [8]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Beike's non-real estate business, including home decoration and rental services, is performing well, with home decoration revenue at 4.3 billion yuan and rental income growing by 45.3% to 5.7 billion yuan [8][9]. - The real estate industry is transitioning from a focus on property transactions to comprehensive residential services, indicating that Beike may expand its offerings to include furniture and appliances [10]. - Future home-buying decisions will increasingly prioritize living quality, rental yield, and property management, with older neighborhoods likely facing further depreciation [11][12].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to the company, projecting net profits of RMB 5.72 billion, 6.24 billion, and 6.99 billion for 2025-2027, with a 2025 PE valuation of 38x, equating to a fair value of RMB 60.83 or HKD 66.85 per share [4][16]. Core Insights - The company is actively developing non-housing businesses to mitigate cyclical risks and is focusing on cost reduction and efficiency improvements while increasing shareholder returns to enhance investment value [1]. - In Q3 2025, the total transaction volume was RMB 736.7 billion, stable year-on-year, with net income of RMB 23.1 billion, up 2.1% year-on-year. However, net profit decreased by 36.1% year-on-year to RMB 747 million [17]. - The existing home business showed a net income of RMB 6 billion, down 3.6% year-on-year, while the new home business net income was RMB 6.6 billion, down 14.1% year-on-year [18]. - The company has implemented a significant buyback plan, with Q3 2025 buybacks reaching USD 281 million, marking a two-year high [19]. Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at RMB 77.78 billion, with a growth rate of 28.2%. The net profit for 2023 is expected to be RMB 5.88 billion, reflecting a substantial increase of 524.5% [3]. - The company’s gross profit margin is expected to decline slightly from 24.55% in 2024 to 22.23% in 2027, indicating a trend of increasing costs relative to revenue [10]. - The company’s total assets are projected to grow from RMB 133.15 billion in 2024 to RMB 156.70 billion in 2027, while total liabilities are expected to increase from RMB 61.70 billion to RMB 84.51 billion over the same period [5]. Business Performance - The company’s existing home transaction volume increased by 5.8% year-on-year to RMB 505.6 billion in Q3 2025, while the new home transaction volume decreased by 13.7% year-on-year to RMB 196.3 billion [18]. - The rental services segment has shown strong growth, contributing over RMB 100 million in profit in Q3 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 45.3% [17][7]. - The company’s home furnishing and rental services achieved profitability at the city level, with profit contributions to gross profit reaching a historical high [17].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that the company, Beike-W (02423), is rated "Buy" by Guotai Junan, with projected adjusted net profits for 2025-2027 being 57.19 billion, 62.44 billion, and 69.95 billion respectively, and a target price of 66.85 HKD per share based on a 38x PE valuation for 2025 [1] - The company is actively developing non-property businesses to mitigate cyclical risks and is focusing on cost reduction and efficiency improvements while increasing shareholder returns to enhance investment value [1] - In Q3 2025, the total transaction volume was 736.7 billion, remaining stable year-on-year, while net income increased by 2.1% to 23.1 billion, although net profit decreased by 36.1% to 0.747 billion [1] Group 2 - The second-hand property business is steadily expanding, with net income from existing properties at 6 billion, down 3.6% year-on-year, while total transaction volume increased by 5.8% to 505.6 billion [2] - The commission rate for existing properties was 1.19%, with the Lianjia existing property commission rate at 2.53% and the Beilian existing property commission rate at 0.38% [2] - The new property business saw a decline in net income by 14.1% to 6.6 billion, with total transaction volume down 13.7% to 196.3 billion in Q3 2025 [2] Group 3 - The company has actively implemented a share repurchase plan, with a record high repurchase amount of 281 million in Q3 2025, bringing the total repurchase amount for the year to approximately 675 million, a 15.7% increase year-on-year [3] - Since the initiation of the repurchase program in September 2022, the cumulative repurchase amount has reached approximately 2.3 billion, accounting for about 11.5% of the total share capital before the program started [3]

Core Viewpoint - Guotai Junan has issued a "Buy" rating for Beike-W (02423), projecting adjusted net profits for 2025-2027 to be 57.19 billion, 62.44 billion, and 69.95 billion respectively, with a 2025 PE valuation of 38 times, leading to a target price of 60.83 yuan, equivalent to 66.85 HKD per share [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the total transaction volume was 736.7 billion, remaining stable year-on-year, while net income increased by 2.1% to 23.1 billion; however, net profit decreased by 36.1% to 0.747 billion, and adjusted net profit fell by 27.8% to 1.286 billion [2] - The company's rental services have integrated AI, contributing over 0.1 billion in profit in Q3 2025, with home decoration and rental services achieving profitability at the city level, marking a historical high in profit contribution [2] Group 2: Business Segments - The existing housing business saw net income of 6 billion, down 3.6% year-on-year, while total transaction volume increased by 5.8% to 505.6 billion; the Beilian model accounted for 62.4% of the total transaction volume, a decrease of 1.1 percentage points quarter-on-quarter but an increase of 3.1 percentage points year-on-year [3] - The new housing business experienced a net income decline of 14.1% to 6.6 billion, with total transaction volume down 13.7% to 196.3 billion; the GTV under the Beilian model accounted for 81.7%, showing a slight increase [3] Group 3: Share Buyback - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a record high in share buyback amounting to 281 million USD, with total buybacks for the year reaching approximately 675 million USD, a 15.7% increase year-on-year, representing about 3% of the total share capital as of the end of 2024 [4] - Since the initiation of the buyback program in September 2022, the cumulative buyback amount has reached approximately 2.3 billion USD, accounting for about 11.5% of the total share capital prior to the program [4]

机构：第一上海 研究员：胡钰 2025Q3 经调整净利润12.9 亿元，同比下降27.8%：2025Q3 公司总交易额为7367 亿元，同比基本持平。 期内录得净收入231 亿元，同比增加2.1%。期内毛利率为21.4%，同比下降1.3 个百分点，主要由于贡献 利润率较高的存量房及新房业务收入占比下降以及存量房的贡献利润率下降的影响。期内整体运营费用 为43 亿元，同比减少1.8%，环比减少6.5%，公司降本增效成果逐步显现。期内公司经调整净利润12.9 亿元，同比下降27.8%。 一赛道业务韧性十足，成本费用节降稳步推进：2025Q3 公司存量房交易额为5056 亿元，同比增长 5.8%，实现净收入60 亿元，同比下降3.6%，收入增速低于交易额增速主要因为非链家的交易额占比提 升。贡献利润率为39.0%，同比下降2 个百分点，主要由于存量房收入减少带来的杠杆效应以及固定人 工成本同比增加所致；环比下降约1 个百分点，主要因为固定的人工成本环比降幅低于营收的降幅。期 内公司的固定人工成本环比下降6.5 个百分点，公司成本控制正在逐步兑现。新房交易额为1963 亿元， 同比下降13.7%；净收入66 亿元，同 ...

Core Insights - The company reported a 2% year-on-year revenue growth in Q3 2025, primarily driven by the development of its two wings business [1] - The adjusted net profit decreased by 28% year-on-year, indicating challenges in profitability despite revenue growth [2] - The existing housing business remained stable, while the new housing business showed a decline in performance [3][4] Revenue Performance - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a total GTV of 736.7 billion yuan, with revenue of 23.1 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2% [1] - The revenue contributions from various segments were as follows: existing housing (26%), new housing (29%), home decoration and furniture (19%), rental services (25%), and emerging businesses (2%) [1] - The two wings business continues to enhance the stability of the company's revenue amid a challenging market environment [1] Profitability Analysis - The adjusted net profit for Q3 2025 was 1.3 billion yuan, down 28% year-on-year, with a net profit margin of 5.6% [2] - The gross profit margin was reported at 21.4%, a decrease of 1.3 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The contribution profit rates for various segments were: existing housing (38%), new housing (26%), home decoration (23%), rental services (8%), and emerging businesses (5%) [2] Segment Performance - The existing housing business GTV was 505.6 billion yuan, showing a 6% year-on-year increase, while revenue was 6 billion yuan, down 4% year-on-year [3] - The new housing business GTV was 196.3 billion yuan, reflecting a 14% year-on-year decline, with revenue also down 14% [4] - The home decoration and furniture business revenue grew by 2% year-on-year, while rental services saw a significant increase of 45% [4] Future Outlook - The company anticipates a more pronounced year-on-year decline in revenue for its main business segments in Q4 due to high base effects [1] - Adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been slightly lowered to 5.4 billion and 7 billion yuan, respectively [5] - The company maintains an "outperform the market" rating despite the downward adjustments in profit forecasts [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating with a target price of HKD 60.00 / USD 22.80, representing a potential upside of 36.2% / 36.8% from the current price [2][4]. Core Insights - The company has demonstrated significant cost reduction and efficiency improvements, leading to profitability in its "two wings" business segments [4]. - The adjusted net profit for Q3 2025 was CNY 1.29 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 27.8%, while total transaction volume remained stable at CNY 736.7 billion [4]. - The company is focusing on enhancing quality, scale, and efficiency, with a solid cash reserve of approximately CNY 70 billion, which supports its stock buyback initiatives [4]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2023 to 2027 show a growth trajectory, with expected revenues of CNY 77.78 billion in 2023, increasing to CNY 113.32 billion by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 16.4% [3][5]. - The net profit is projected to decline from CNY 5.89 billion in 2023 to CNY 3.60 billion in 2025, before rebounding to CNY 8.88 billion in 2027, indicating a recovery phase [3][5]. - The adjusted net profit is expected to follow a similar trend, with estimates of CNY 9.80 billion in 2023, dropping to CNY 5.76 billion in 2025, and then rising to CNY 9.67 billion in 2027 [3][5]. Business Performance - The company's existing home transaction volume reached CNY 5,056 billion in Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 5.8%, while new home transaction volume was CNY 1,963 billion, down 13.7% [4]. - Non-property transaction services have increased their revenue contribution to 45%, with a profit contribution of 39.7%, indicating a diversification in revenue streams [4]. - The home decoration and rental businesses achieved profitability at the city level, contributing positively to the overall financial performance [4].