Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Report's Core View - As of the week of January 9th, after the New Year's Day holiday, the downstream PP operating rate decreased by 0.10 percentage points to 52.6%, at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. The operating rate of plastic weaving, the main downstream of drawstring PP, dropped by 0.22 percentage points to 42.92%, and orders continued to decline slightly, slightly lower than the same period last year. On January 13th, maintenance devices such as the second line of Jingbo Polyolefin restarted, and the operating rate of PP enterprises rose to around 81%, at a relatively low level, with the production ratio of standard drawstring PP remaining at around 27%. The inventory accumulation during the New Year's Day this year was not significant, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in the same period over the years. On the cost side, due to recent events in the Middle East and Russia-Ukraine situation, the crude oil price rebounded slightly. In terms of supply, new production capacity was put into operation, and the number of maintenance devices decreased slightly. The downstream is entering the end of the peak season, orders continue to decline, and the market lacks large-scale centralized procurement, with limited support for the market. Although the macro environment is positive, the improvement in the supply-demand pattern of PP is limited, and the downstream order cycle is shortened. It is expected that the upside space for PP is limited. Due to new production capacity of plastics being put into operation recently and a higher operating rate compared to PP, combined with the gradual exit of the peak season for agricultural film, the L-PP price spread is expected to narrow [1]. Summary of Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - As of the week of January 9th, the downstream PP operating rate decreased by 0.10 percentage points to 52.6%, at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. The operating rate of plastic weaving, the main downstream of drawstring PP, dropped by 0.22 percentage points to 42.92%, and orders continued to decline slightly, slightly lower than the same period last year. On January 13th, maintenance devices such as the second line of Jingbo Polyolefin restarted, and the operating rate of PP enterprises rose to around 81%, at a relatively low level, with the production ratio of standard drawstring PP remaining at around 27%. The inventory accumulation during the New Year's Day this year was not significant, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in the same period over the years. On the cost side, due to recent events in the Middle East and Russia-Ukraine situation, the crude oil price rebounded slightly. New production capacity of 400,000 tons/year of PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical was put into operation in mid-October, and the number of maintenance devices decreased slightly. The downstream is entering the end of the peak season, orders continue to decline, and the market lacks large-scale centralized procurement, with limited support for the market. Although the macro environment is positive, the improvement in the supply-demand pattern of PP is limited, and the downstream order cycle is shortened. It is expected that the upside space for PP is limited. Due to new production capacity of plastics being put into operation recently and a higher operating rate compared to PP, combined with the gradual exit of the peak season for agricultural film, the L-PP price spread is expected to narrow [1]. Futures and Spot Market Quotes - Futures: The PP2605 contract fluctuated with reduced positions, with a minimum price of 6,456 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 6,532 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 6,484 yuan/ton, above the 20-day moving average, with a gain of 0.31%. The open interest decreased by 8,586 lots to 511,792 lots [2]. - Spot: The spot prices of PP in various regions partially increased. The drawstring PP was quoted at 6,120 - 6,680 yuan/ton [3]. Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On January 13th, maintenance devices such as the second line of Jingbo Polyolefin restarted, and the operating rate of PP enterprises rose to around 81%, at a relatively low level, with the production ratio of standard drawstring PP remaining at around 27% [4]. - Demand: As of the week of January 9th, after the New Year's Day holiday, the downstream PP operating rate decreased by 0.10 percentage points to 52.6%, at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. The operating rate of plastic weaving, the main downstream of drawstring PP, dropped by 0.22 percentage points to 42.92%, and orders continued to decline slightly, slightly lower than the same period last year [4]. - Inventory: The petrochemical morning inventory on Tuesday decreased by 10,000 tons to 590,000 tons, 10,000 tons higher than the same period last year. The inventory accumulation during the New Year's Day this year was not significant, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in the same period over the years [4]. Raw Material End - Crude oil: The Brent crude oil 03 contract rose to $64 per barrel, and the CFR propylene price in China remained flat at $750 per ton [6].

Core Viewpoint - Since late December, the PP market in South China has shown relative strength due to tight spot resource circulation and stable demand, with expectations of rising upstream raw material prices driven by geopolitical fluctuations [2][10][14] Group 1: Market Performance - The PP market in South China has experienced a slight rebound since late December, primarily due to the continuous inventory control by upstream enterprises, resulting in no significant pressure on spot supply [2][10] - As of January 4, 2026, the average price of PP in South China was 6265 yuan/ton, an increase of 40-60 yuan/ton compared to mid-December [2][10] - The market is expected to maintain a warm operating trend in the short term, although the support from supply and demand fundamentals may weaken in the latter half of the month [6][14] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The South China region has seen several facilities, including Huizhou Litop and Guangzhou Petrochemical, undergoing maintenance, leading to a relatively high level of repair loss [4][12] - The weekly production in South China for the week of December 26 to January 1 was 189,800 tons, a decrease of 2.03% compared to the previous week [4][12] - Despite the tight supply of spot resources, downstream factories are primarily maintaining low-level demand without significant replenishment intentions, which limits the upward price movement of the PP market [4][12] Group 3: Geopolitical Influences - Geopolitical disturbances, particularly restrictions on oil exports from certain Latin American countries, have significantly impacted crude oil prices, leading to expectations of cost increases that support PP prices [4][12] - The market price has seen a slight increase of 10-40 yuan/ton due to these cost expectations, although downstream buyers remain cautious and are primarily making minimal purchases based on immediate needs [4][12]