【期现行情】 期货方面： PP2605合约减仓震荡运行，最低价6456元/吨，最高价6532元/吨，最终收盘于6484元/吨， 在20日均线上方，涨幅0.31%。持仓量减少8586手至511792手。 【冠通期货研究报告】 PP日报：震荡运行 发布日期：2026年1月8日 【行情分析】 截至1月2日当周，PP下游开工率环比下降0.48个百分点至52.76%，处于历年同期偏低水平。其中 拉丝主力下游塑编开工率环比下跌0.60个百分点至43.14%，塑编订单环比继续小幅下降，略低于去年 同期。1月8日，新增福建联合二线等检修装置，PP企业开工率下降至78.5%左右，处于偏低水平，标 品拉丝生产比例下降至22.5%左右。今年元旦累库幅度不大，目前石化库存处于近年同期中性水平。 成本端，原油供应过剩之下，美军突袭委内瑞拉军事行动引发地缘政治担忧，但目前该国关键石油 设施未受损，且其产量仅占全球供应不足1%，特朗普称委内瑞拉将向美国移交3000万至5000万桶石油， 原油价格依然疲软。供应上，新增产能40万吨/年的中石油广西石化10月中旬投产，近期检修装置有 所增加。下游进入旺季尾声，塑编等订单继续下降，BOPP膜价格 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 PP日报：震荡上行 发布日期：2026年1月7日 【行情分析】 截至1月2日当周，PP下游开工率环比下降0.48个百分点至52.76%，处于历年同期偏低水平。其中 拉丝主力下游塑编开工率环比下跌0.60个百分点至43.14%，塑编订单环比继续小幅下降，略低于去年 同期。1月7日，检修装置变动不大，PP企业开工率维持在至79%左右，处于偏低水平，标品拉丝生产 比例上涨至23.5%左右。今年元旦累库幅度不大，目前石化库存处于近年同期中性水平。成本端，原 油供应过剩之下，美军突袭委内瑞拉军事行动引发地缘政治担忧，但目前该国关键石油设施未受损， 且其产量仅占全球供应不足1%，特朗普称委内瑞拉将向美国移交3000万至5000万桶石油，原油价格依 然疲软。供应上，新增产能40万吨/年的中石油广西石化10月中旬投产，近期检修装置略有增加。下 游进入旺季尾声，塑编等订单继续下降，BOPP膜价格再次下跌，市场缺乏大规模集中采购，对行情 提振有限，贸易商普遍让利以刺激成交。12月中国制造业PMI、非制造业商务活动指数和综合PMI产 出指数均升至扩张区间，财政部提前下达2026年以旧换新及"两重"额度，宏观氛 ...

聚烯烃日报 | 2026-01-06 供需改善有限，制约反弹空间 市场要闻与重要数据 价格与基差方面，L主力合约收盘价为6449元/吨（-23），PP主力合约收盘价为6330元/吨（-18），LL华北现货为6400 元/吨（+100），LL华东现货为6480元/吨（+30），PP华东现货为6190元/吨（+30），LL华北基差为-49元/吨（+123）， LL华东基差为31元/吨（+103）， PP华东基差为-140元/吨（+48）。 上游供应方面，PE开工率为83.2%（+0.6%），PP开工率为76.7%（-0.1%）。 策略 单边：LLDPE观望；PP观望；短期供需矛盾尚未改善但地缘局势升温或对成本端造成扰动，短期或延续震荡走势， 继续关注上游装置检修兑现情况。 跨期：无 跨品种：L05-PP05价差逢高做缩 生产利润方面，PE油制生产利润为64.5元/吨（+78.3），PP油制生产利润为-415.5元/吨（+78.3），PDH制PP生产利 润为-828.8元/吨（-35.7）。 进出口方面，LL进口利润为99.3元/吨（-2.5），PP进口利润为-351.2元/吨（+7.4），PP出口利润为-22.4 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The PP market is expected to move in a volatile range. The overall supply - demand pattern of PP remains unchanged, with limited upside potential. The L - PP spread is expected to decline due to new PP capacity and the end of the agricultural film peak season [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - As of the week ending December 26, the downstream PP operating rate decreased by 0.56 percentage points to 53.24% week - on - week, at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. The operating rate of plastic weaving, the main downstream of drawstring, dropped by 0.26 percentage points to 43.74% week - on - week, and orders decreased slightly, slightly lower than the same period last year [1] - On December 30, new maintenance units such as the first line of Donghua Energy's second - phase project were added. The PP enterprise operating rate dropped to around 82%, at a moderately low level, and the production ratio of drawstring remained at around 27.5% [1][4] - Currently, petrochemical inventory is at a relatively high level in the same period in recent years, with significant pressure [1] - Due to oversupply in the crude oil market, the geopolitical situation between the US and Venezuela has escalated, and Russia reported 91 Ukrainian drones attacking Putin's residence. The rebound of crude oil prices is limited [1] - There is new capacity of 400,000 tons/year from PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical put into production in mid - October, and the number of maintenance units has increased recently. The downstream is at the end of the peak season, orders for plastic weaving continue to decline, the price of BOPP film has dropped again, and there is a lack of large - scale centralized procurement, which has limited support for the market [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The PP2605 contract increased in positions and moved in a volatile range. The lowest price was 6,271 yuan/ton, the highest was 6,346 yuan/ton, and it closed at 6,321 yuan/ton, above the 20 - day moving average, with a gain of 0.48%. The open interest increased by 23,919 lots to 541,379 lots [2] - Spot: The spot prices of PP in various regions partially increased. Drawstring was reported at 5,920 - 6,330 yuan/ton [3] Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On December 30, new maintenance units such as the first line of Donghua Energy's second - phase project were added. The PP enterprise operating rate dropped to around 82%, at a moderately low level, and the production ratio of drawstring remained at around 27.5% [4] - Demand: As of the week ending December 26, the downstream PP operating rate decreased by 0.56 percentage points to 53.24% week - on - week, at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. Among them, the operating rate of plastic weaving, the main downstream of drawstring, dropped by 0.26 percentage points to 43.74% week - on - week, and orders decreased slightly, slightly lower than the same period last year [4] - Petrochemical inventory: On Tuesday, the petrochemical morning inventory increased by 20,000 tons to 600,000 tons week - on - week, 50,000 tons higher than the same period last year, and is currently at a relatively high level in the same period in recent years [4] Raw Material End - Brent crude oil's 03 contract rose to $62 per barrel, and the CFR propylene price in China remained flat at $740 per ton week - on - week [6]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View of the Report - The PP market is expected to have limited upside potential due to unchanged overall supply - demand patterns, shortened downstream order cycles, and some falling PP spot prices [1]. - The L - PP spread is expected to decline as there are new plastic production capacity coming on - stream and the peak season for agricultural films is ending [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Analysis - As of the week ending December 19, the PP downstream operating rate decreased 0.19 percentage points to 53.80% week - on - week, at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. The operating rate of the plastic weaving industry, the main downstream of the drawstring grade, dropped 0.06 percentage points to 44.00% week - on - week, and the plastic weaving orders continued to decline slightly, slightly lower than the same period last year [1][4]. - On December 24, new maintenance devices were added at Guangzhou Petrochemical, and the PP enterprise operating rate dropped to around 82%, at a moderately low level. The production ratio of the standard drawstring grade decreased to around 27% [1][4]. - The petrochemical inventory is currently at a relatively high level in the same period in recent years, and the destocking is slow. The cost of crude oil has limited rebound due to oversupply and geopolitical issues. There is new production capacity of 400,000 tons/year from PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical put into production in mid - October, and there has been a slight increase in maintenance devices recently. The downstream is at the end of the peak season, orders are decreasing, and the market lacks large - scale centralized purchases [1]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The PP2605 contract increased in a volatile manner with a reduced position. The lowest price was 6,157 yuan/ton, the highest price was 6,281 yuan/ton, and it closed at 6,278 yuan/ton, below the 20 - day moving average, with a gain of 1.93%. The open interest decreased by 18,588 lots to 539,752 lots [2]. - Spot: The spot prices of PP in most regions declined. The drawstring grade was quoted at 5,900 - 6,260 yuan/ton [3]. 3.3. Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On December 24, new maintenance devices were added at Guangzhou Petrochemical, and the PP enterprise operating rate dropped to around 82%, at a moderately low level. The production ratio of the standard drawstring grade decreased to around 27% [1][4]. - Demand: As of the week ending December 19, the PP downstream operating rate decreased 0.19 percentage points to 53.80% week - on - week, at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. The operating rate of the plastic weaving industry, the main downstream of the drawstring grade, dropped 0.06 percentage points to 44.00% week - on - week, and the plastic weaving orders continued to decline slightly, slightly lower than the same period last year [1][4]. - Inventory: On Wednesday, the petrochemical morning inventory decreased by 20,000 tons to 690,000 tons week - on - week, 100,000 tons higher than the same period last year. The petrochemical destocking is slow recently, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a relatively high level in the same period in recent years [4]. 3.4. Raw Material End - Brent crude oil's 03 contract rose to $62 per barrel, and the CFR price of propylene in China remained flat at $740 per ton week - on - week [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For PE, the supply is continuously abundant, the demand is in the off - season, the inventory is accumulating, and the price is under pressure from supply - demand contradiction, although the cost support has increased [3]. - For PP, the supply pressure is expected to be less than that of PE, the demand is weak, the inventory is high, and the short - term price rebound drive is limited, with the cost support increasing [4]. - The strategy suggests to cautiously short - sell LLDPE for hedging at high prices, to wait and see for PP with short - term weak bottom - side fluctuations, and to shrink the L05 - PP05 spread when it is high [5]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market News and Important Data - **Price and Basis**: L主力合约收盘价为6296元/吨（+56），PP主力合约收盘价为6158元/吨（+39），LL华北现货为6200元/吨（-50），LL华东现货为6370元/吨（-30），PP华东现货为6120元/吨（-30），LL华北基差为-96元/吨（-106），LL华东基差为74元/吨（-86），PP华东基差为-38元/吨（-69） [1]. - **Upstream Supply**: PE开工率为83.9%（-0.2%），PP开工率为79.4%（+1.1%） [1]. - **Production Profit**: PE油制生产利润为-55.9元/吨（-117.5），PP油制生产利润为-545.9元/吨（-117.5），PDH制PP生产利润为-714.1元/吨（-84.3） [1]. - **Import and Export**: LL进口利润为-127.5元/吨（+4.3），PP进口利润为-271.6元/吨（-55.8），PP出口利润为-6.4美元/吨（+7.0） [2]. - **Downstream Demand**: PE下游农膜开工率为45.2%（-1.2%），PE下游包装膜开工率为49.0%（-0.6%），PP下游塑编开工率为44.0%（-0.1%），PP下游BOPP膜开工率为63.2%（+0.3%） [2]. 3.2 Market Analysis - **PE**: Supply remains high with limited planned maintenance at the end of the year and low maintenance in Q1 next year, and new capacity is expected to be put into operation. Demand enters the off - season with declining downstream开工率. Inventory is accumulating, and the de - stocking pressure is large. The cost support has increased, but the supply - demand contradiction suppresses the price [3]. - **PP**: Short - term supply - demand fundamentals have limited changes. Supply is still under pressure, but there may be a slow reduction in supply due to potential production cuts. Demand has limited order follow - up, and only BOPP provides some support. Inventory is high. The cost support has increased, and the short - term price rebound drive is limited [4]. 3.3 Strategy - **Single - sided**: Cautiously short - sell LLDPE for hedging at high prices; wait and see for PP with short - term weak bottom - side fluctuations [5]. - **Inter - period**: No strategy [5]. - **Inter - variety**: Shrink the L05 - PP05 spread when it is high [5].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall PP supply - demand pattern remains unchanged, with the downstream order cycle shortening and some PP spot prices still falling. It is expected that PP will fluctuate weakly. Due to new plastic production capacity coming on - stream recently and the gradual exit of the agricultural film peak season, the L - PP spread is expected to narrow [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - As of the week ending December 19th, the PP downstream operating rate decreased by 0.19 percentage points to 53.80% week - on - week, at a relatively low level in the same period of previous years. Among them, the operating rate of the plastic weaving industry, the main downstream of the drawstring, decreased by 0.06 percentage points to 44.00% week - on - week, and plastic weaving orders continued to decline slightly, slightly lower than the same period last year [1] - On December 23rd, there were few changes in the maintenance devices. The operating rate of PP enterprises remained at around 82.5%, at a moderately low level, and the production proportion of the standard drawstring increased to around 28%. Recently, the inventory reduction of petrochemicals has been slow, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a relatively high level in the same period in recent years [1][7] - On the cost side, with an oversupply of crude oil and the escalation of the geopolitical situation between the United States and Venezuela, the rebound of crude oil prices is limited. In terms of supply, the new production capacity of 400,000 tons/year of PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical was put into production in mid - October, and the number of maintenance devices has increased recently. The downstream is at the end of the peak season, orders for plastic weaving and the like continue to decline, the price of BOPP film has stabilized after the decline, and the market lacks large - scale centralized procurement, which has limited support for the market. Traders generally offer discounts to stimulate sales [1] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions Futures - The PP2605 contract increased its positions and oscillated downward, with a minimum price of 6,200 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 6,273 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 6,213 yuan/ton, below the 20 - day moving average, with a decline of 1.24%. The open interest increased by 10,464 lots to 533,959 lots [2] Spot - The spot prices of PP in most regions have declined. The drawstring is quoted at 5,930 - 6,280 yuan/ton [5] 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - On the supply side, on December 23rd, there were few changes in the maintenance devices, and the operating rate of PP enterprises remained at around 82.5%, at a moderately low level [1][7] - In terms of demand, as of the week ending December 19th, the PP downstream operating rate decreased by 0.19 percentage points to 53.80% week - on - week, at a relatively low level in the same period of previous years. Among them, the operating rate of the plastic weaving industry, the main downstream of the drawstring, decreased by 0.06 percentage points to 44.00% week - on - week, and plastic weaving orders continued to decline slightly, slightly lower than the same period last year [1][7] - On Tuesday, the early petrochemical inventory decreased by 10,000 tons to 710,000 tons week - on - week, 100,000 tons higher than the same period last year. Recently, the inventory reduction of petrochemicals has been slow, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a relatively high level in the same period in recent years [7] 3.4 Raw Material End - The Brent crude oil 03 contract rose above $61 per barrel, and the CFR propylene price in China remained flat week - on - week at $740 per ton [9]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - PE faces continuous supply pressure with high - level supply, limited planned maintenance, and new device production expectations. Demand is weakening, inventory is accumulating, and cost support from oil is decreasing, making it difficult to have substantial improvement in the short - term [2] - PP's supply pressure is expected to be less than PE's. Although supply may increase slightly, there could be supply reduction due to high costs. Demand is generally weak, with only BOPP providing some support. Inventory remains high, and cost support has weakened, with limited short - term rebound drivers [3] Summary by Directory 1. Market News and Important Data - **Price and Basis**: The closing price of the L main contract is 6,476 yuan/ton (-3), and the PP main contract is 6,279 yuan/ton (+25). LL North China spot is 6,420 yuan/ton (-30), LL East China spot is 6,410 yuan/ton (-170), and PP East China spot is 6,210 yuan/ton (+10). LL North China basis is -56 yuan/ton (-27), LL East China basis is -66 yuan/ton (-167), and PP East China basis is -69 yuan/ton (-15) [1] - **Upstream Supply**: PE's开工率 is 83.9% (-0.2%), and PP's开工率 is 79.4% (+1.1%) [1] - **Production Profit**: PE's oil - based production profit is 300.0 yuan/ton (-58.7), PP's oil - based production profit is -320.0 yuan/ton (-58.7), and PDH - made PP production profit is -715.6 yuan/ton (-1.5) [1] - **Imports and Exports**: LL's import profit is 46.6 yuan/ton (+146.6), PP's import profit is -269.8 yuan/ton (-1.7), and PP's export profit is -11.9 dollars/ton (+0.2) [1] - **Downstream Demand**: PE's downstream agricultural film开工率 is 45.2% (-1.2%), PE's downstream packaging film开工率 is 49.0% (-0.6%), PP's downstream plastic weaving开工率 is 44.0% (-0.1%), and PP's downstream BOPP film开工率 is 63.2% (+0.3%) [1] 2. Market Analysis - **PE**: Supply is high, demand is weakening, inventory pressure is large, and cost support is decreasing, with no short - term substantial improvement expected [2] - **PP**: Supply pressure is less than PE, but demand is weak, inventory is high, cost support has weakened, and short - term rebound drivers are limited [3] 3. Strategy - **Single - side**: Cautiously short - sell LLDPE on rallies for hedging; wait and see on PP, which is expected to fluctuate weakly at the bottom in the short term [4] - **Inter - period**: Not provided [4] - **Inter - variety**: Short the spread of L05 - PP05 on rallies [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall supply - demand pattern of PP remains unchanged, with a light spot trading atmosphere. It is expected that the upward space of PP will be limited in the near future. Due to the possibility of new PP production capacity coming on - stream this year and the gradual exit of the agricultural film peak season, the L - PP spread is expected to narrow [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - As of the week ending December 12, the downstream operating rate of PP increased by 0.06 percentage points to 53.99% week - on - week, at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. However, the operating rate of plastic weaving, the main downstream of drawstring, decreased by 0.04 percentage points to 44.06% week - on - week, and plastic weaving orders continued to decline slightly week - on - week, slightly lower than the same period last year [1] - On December 17, there were few changes in maintenance units, the operating rate of PP enterprises remained at around 84%, at a neutral level, and the production ratio of standard drawstring remained at around 24% [1] - Recently, the de - stocking of petrochemicals has been slow, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a relatively high level in the same period in recent years [1] - On the cost side, some previously faulty oil fields in Iraq have resumed production. The US is still actively promoting peace talks between Russia and Ukraine, and Ukraine has made certain compromises on security guarantees. The crack spread of refined oil products in Europe and the US has continued to decline, and the crude oil price has dropped [1] - In terms of supply, the new 400,000 - ton/year production capacity of PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical was put into operation in mid - October. Recently, the number of maintenance units has slightly decreased. The downstream is at the end of the peak season, orders for plastic weaving continue to decline, the price of BOPP film has dropped again, the market lacks large - scale centralized procurement, which has limited boost to the market, and traders generally offer discounts to stimulate transactions [1] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Quotes Futures - The PP2605 contract increased in positions and fluctuated. The lowest price was 6,226 yuan/ton, the highest price was 6,275 yuan/ton, and it finally closed at 6,254 yuan/ton, below the 20 - day moving average, with a gain of 0.05%. The position increased by 21,552 lots to 519,494 lots [2] Spot - The spot prices of PP in most regions declined. The drawstring was quoted at 5,980 - 6,280 yuan/ton [3] 3.3 Fundamental Tracking Supply - On December 17, there were few changes in maintenance units, and the operating rate of PP enterprises remained at around 84%, at a neutral level [4] Demand - As of the week ending December 12, the downstream operating rate of PP increased by 0.06 percentage points to 53.99% week - on - week, at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. However, the operating rate of plastic weaving, the main downstream of drawstring, decreased by 0.04 percentage points to 44.06% week - on - week, and plastic weaving orders continued to decline slightly week - on - week, slightly lower than the same period last year [4] Inventory - On Wednesday, the early petrochemical inventory decreased by 20,000 tons to 700,000 tons week - on - week, 80,000 tons higher than the same period last year. Recently, the de - stocking of petrochemicals has been slow, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a relatively high level in the same period in recent years [4] 3.4 Raw Material End - Crude Oil - The Brent crude oil 03 contract fell below $60/barrel, and the CFR propylene price in China remained flat at $745/ton week - on - week [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The Central Financial and Economic Work Conference determined the economic direction. With the improvement of market sentiment boosted by macro - policies, the polyolefin market stopped falling and rebounded. However, the current weak supply - demand fundamentals provide insufficient support for prices [3]. - For PE, the supply is expected to be loose and the demand is weak, with high inventory pressure and limited oil - based cost support. The short - term fundamentals are difficult to be substantially boosted, and the rebound space is limited [3]. - For PP, the supply is expected to remain high, the demand follow - up is insufficient, the inventory level is high, and the cost support is weakened. The short - term rebound drive is limited, and attention should be paid to cost and supply changes [4]. Summary by Directory Market News and Important Data - **Price and Basis**: L主力合约收盘价为6557元/吨（+71），PP主力合约收盘价为6254元/吨（+125）；LL华北现货为6500元/吨（+0），LL华东现货为6580元/吨（+0），PP华东现货为6200元/吨（+0）；LL华北基差为 - 57元/吨（-71），LL华东基差为23元/吨（-71），PP华东基差为 - 54元/吨（-125） [1]. - **Upstream Supply**: PE开工率为84.1%（+0.1%），PP开工率为78.3%（+0.7%） [1]. - **Production Profit**: PE油制生产利润为183.5元/吨（-105.5），PP油制生产利润为 - 436.5元/吨（-105.5），PDH制PP生产利润为 - 817.3元/吨（+75.2） [1]. - **Import and Export**: LL进口利润为 - 112.2元/吨（-116.8），PP进口利润为 - 322.4元/吨（-26.9），PP出口利润为 - 10.6美元/吨（+3.4） [1]. - **Downstream Demand**: PE下游农膜开工率为46.4%（-1.7%），PE下游包装膜开工率为49.6%（-0.6%），PP下游塑编开工率为44.1%（+0.0%），PP下游BOPP膜开工率为62.9%（+0.3%） [2]. Market Analysis - **PE**: Supply side, in December, the overall PE maintenance volume is not high, and the planned maintenance volume in the future is also relatively limited. The PE start - up is expected to continue to rise, and a new 500,000 - ton FDPE device of BASF is expected to be put into operation at the end of the year, so the supply pressure is continuous. Demand side, the overall downstream start - up of PE continues to decline, with the agricultural film start - up entering the off - season, and the demand for packaging film also weakening. Inventory side, although the PE social inventory is decreasing, the absolute inventory levels of LL and LD are still high, and the inventory pressure is expected to be large. Cost side, the oil price trend is weak, and the oil - based cost support is relatively limited [3]. - **PP**: Supply side, the previously shut - down enterprises are gradually restarting, the planned maintenance volume is relatively small, and the supply is expected to remain high. Demand side, the downstream demand start - up of BOPP, plastic weaving, etc. is okay, but the downstream replenishment is cautious. Inventory side, the overall inventory level is still high. Cost side, the international oil price is weak, and the cost support of PDH is weakened. The short - term rebound drive is limited, and attention should be paid to cost and supply changes [4]. Strategy - **Unilateral**: Wait and see [5]. - **Inter - period Spread**: Go long on the L05 - 09 inter - period spread when it is low; go long on the PP05 - 09 inter - period spread when it is low [5]. - **Inter - variety Spread**: Short the L05 - PP05 spread when it is high [5].