PP日报：震荡运行 发布日期：2026年1月21日 【行情分析】 截至1月16日当周，PP下游开工率环比下降0.07个百分点至52.53%，处于历年同期偏低水平。其 中拉丝主力下游塑编开工率环比下跌0.32个百分点至42.6%，塑编订单环比继续小幅下降，略低于去 年同期。1月21日，检修装置变动不大，PP企业开工率维持在80%左右，处于中性偏低水平，标品拉 丝生产比例上涨至27.5%左右。石化1月上中旬去库较好，但近日去库一般，目前石化库存处于近年 同期中性水平。成本端，美国总统特朗普在白宫表示，收到了"来自伊朗非常积极的声明"，"我 们要先观望局势发展"，美国暂缓对伊朗的军事打击，伊朗局势有所降温，近期原油价格回落。供 应上，新增产能40万吨/年的中石油广西石化10月中旬投产，近期检修装置略有减少。下游BOPP膜价 格反弹，但临近春节放假，下游塑编等新增订单有限。宏观情绪有所消退，PP供需格局改善有限， 下游订单周期缩短，下游制品利润缩小，预计PP偏弱震荡。由于塑料近日有新增产能投产，开工率 较PP高，叠加农膜订单持续下降，预计L-PP价差回落。 【期现行情】 期货方面： PP2605合约增仓震荡运行，最低 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The PP market is expected to experience a weakening oscillatory trend within a certain range due to limited improvement in the supply - demand pattern, shorter downstream order cycles, and shrinking downstream product profits [1] - The L - PP price spread is expected to decline as there is new production capacity for plastics and the L开工率 is higher than that of PP, along with a continuous decline in agricultural film orders [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - As of the week of January 16, the downstream operating rate of PP decreased by 0.07 percentage points to 52.53% week - on - week, remaining at a relatively low level compared to the same period in previous years [1][4] - The operating rate of the plastic weaving industry, the main downstream of PP drawstring products, dropped by 0.32 percentage points to 42.6% week - on - week, and plastic weaving orders continued to decline slightly, slightly lower than the same period last year [1][4] - On January 20, new maintenance units such as the first and second lines of Juzhengyuan Phase I were added. The operating rate of PP enterprises decreased to around 80%, at a moderately low level, and the production ratio of standard drawstring products dropped to around 26% [1][4] - Petrochemical inventory reduction was good in the first and middle of January, but it has been average recently. Currently, petrochemical inventory is at a moderate level compared to the same period in recent years [1][4] - The cost of crude oil has decreased as the US has postponed military strikes against Iran and the situation in Iran has cooled down [1] - There is new production capacity of 400,000 tons/year from PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical, and the number of maintenance units has slightly decreased recently [1] - The price of BOPP film in the downstream has rebounded, but with the approaching Spring Festival holiday, new orders for downstream plastic weaving are limited [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - The PP2605 contract decreased by 0.72% in a volatile manner, with a closing price of 6461 yuan/ton, above the 20 - day moving average. The trading volume decreased by 4253 lots to 466,241 lots [2] - Most spot prices of PP in various regions have declined, with drawstring products priced at 6240 - 6680 yuan/ton [3] Fundamental Tracking - On the supply side, on January 20, new maintenance units led to a decrease in the PP enterprise operating rate to around 80%, and the production ratio of standard drawstring products dropped to around 26% [4] - On the demand side, as of the week of January 16, the downstream operating rate of PP decreased by 0.07 percentage points to 52.53% week - on - week, and the operating rate of the plastic weaving industry dropped by 0.32 percentage points to 42.6% week - on - week [4] - Petrochemical inventory in the early morning of Tuesday was flat at 560,000 tons compared to the previous day, 40,000 tons higher than the same period last year [4] Raw Material End - The Brent crude oil 03 contract fell below 64 US dollars per barrel, and the CFR propylene price in China remained flat at 785 US dollars per ton [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Report's Core View - As of the week of January 9th, after the New Year's Day holiday, the downstream PP operating rate decreased by 0.10 percentage points to 52.6%, at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. The operating rate of plastic weaving, the main downstream of drawstring PP, dropped by 0.22 percentage points to 42.92%, and orders continued to decline slightly, slightly lower than the same period last year. On January 13th, maintenance devices such as the second line of Jingbo Polyolefin restarted, and the operating rate of PP enterprises rose to around 81%, at a relatively low level, with the production ratio of standard drawstring PP remaining at around 27%. The inventory accumulation during the New Year's Day this year was not significant, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in the same period over the years. On the cost side, due to recent events in the Middle East and Russia-Ukraine situation, the crude oil price rebounded slightly. In terms of supply, new production capacity was put into operation, and the number of maintenance devices decreased slightly. The downstream is entering the end of the peak season, orders continue to decline, and the market lacks large-scale centralized procurement, with limited support for the market. Although the macro environment is positive, the improvement in the supply-demand pattern of PP is limited, and the downstream order cycle is shortened. It is expected that the upside space for PP is limited. Due to new production capacity of plastics being put into operation recently and a higher operating rate compared to PP, combined with the gradual exit of the peak season for agricultural film, the L-PP price spread is expected to narrow [1]. Summary of Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - As of the week of January 9th, the downstream PP operating rate decreased by 0.10 percentage points to 52.6%, at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. The operating rate of plastic weaving, the main downstream of drawstring PP, dropped by 0.22 percentage points to 42.92%, and orders continued to decline slightly, slightly lower than the same period last year. On January 13th, maintenance devices such as the second line of Jingbo Polyolefin restarted, and the operating rate of PP enterprises rose to around 81%, at a relatively low level, with the production ratio of standard drawstring PP remaining at around 27%. The inventory accumulation during the New Year's Day this year was not significant, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in the same period over the years. On the cost side, due to recent events in the Middle East and Russia-Ukraine situation, the crude oil price rebounded slightly. New production capacity of 400,000 tons/year of PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical was put into operation in mid-October, and the number of maintenance devices decreased slightly. The downstream is entering the end of the peak season, orders continue to decline, and the market lacks large-scale centralized procurement, with limited support for the market. Although the macro environment is positive, the improvement in the supply-demand pattern of PP is limited, and the downstream order cycle is shortened. It is expected that the upside space for PP is limited. Due to new production capacity of plastics being put into operation recently and a higher operating rate compared to PP, combined with the gradual exit of the peak season for agricultural film, the L-PP price spread is expected to narrow [1]. Futures and Spot Market Quotes - Futures: The PP2605 contract fluctuated with reduced positions, with a minimum price of 6,456 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 6,532 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 6,484 yuan/ton, above the 20-day moving average, with a gain of 0.31%. The open interest decreased by 8,586 lots to 511,792 lots [2]. - Spot: The spot prices of PP in various regions partially increased. The drawstring PP was quoted at 6,120 - 6,680 yuan/ton [3]. Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On January 13th, maintenance devices such as the second line of Jingbo Polyolefin restarted, and the operating rate of PP enterprises rose to around 81%, at a relatively low level, with the production ratio of standard drawstring PP remaining at around 27% [4]. - Demand: As of the week of January 9th, after the New Year's Day holiday, the downstream PP operating rate decreased by 0.10 percentage points to 52.6%, at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. The operating rate of plastic weaving, the main downstream of drawstring PP, dropped by 0.22 percentage points to 42.92%, and orders continued to decline slightly, slightly lower than the same period last year [4]. - Inventory: The petrochemical morning inventory on Tuesday decreased by 10,000 tons to 590,000 tons, 10,000 tons higher than the same period last year. The inventory accumulation during the New Year's Day this year was not significant, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in the same period over the years [4]. Raw Material End - Crude oil: The Brent crude oil 03 contract rose to $64 per barrel, and the CFR propylene price in China remained flat at $750 per ton [6].

Core Viewpoint - The propane dehydrogenation (PDH) industry is facing significant losses, with profits dropping to around -1400 yuan/ton, marking the lowest level in nearly six years. There are expectations of widespread shutdowns in the PDH industry this month, raising concerns about the impact on downstream products like propylene, polypropylene (PP), and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) [1][2]. Industry Profit Trends - The PDH industry's profit trajectory showed a clear "rise and fall" pattern last year, peaking in July and August due to low raw material prices and a rebound in downstream PP prices. However, since mid-October, profits have been in decline, leading to significant losses [1]. - The main reason for the continued losses is the weakening price of PP, with supply outpacing demand as PP production capacity is expected to grow by 12% in 2025 and around 10% in 2026, while actual demand growth is only projected at 4%-5% [1][2]. Raw Material Pressure - The pressure on raw materials is increasing, with seasonal purchasing expectations in India and Japan driving up import propane prices. Domestic deep processing enterprises report high spot prices for propane, further squeezing PDH industry profit margins. Additionally, the current demand for PP is weak, limiting price recovery potential [2]. Impact on Related Products LPG - LPG demand is relatively stable, but its price is influenced by the PDH industry's demand. Since November, LPG's fundamentals have shown a "strong reality, weak expectation" pattern. If PDH operations reduce or shut down, LPG's price stability may be compromised [4]. - Long-term projections indicate that LPG production capacity in the U.S. and the Middle East will continue to increase, leading to potential downward pressure on LPG prices if PDH operations decline [4]. PP - As the core downstream product of PDH, PP prices have been declining for three consecutive months since September. While expectations of reduced PDH operations may provide short-term support for PP prices, high inventory levels and upcoming new production capacity in 2026 will likely maintain long-term supply pressure [5]. Propylene - Propylene, being a direct downstream product of PDH, will see a significant supply reduction if PDH operations shut down, potentially providing price support. However, the ongoing pressure on PP margins and reduced operating rates may limit propylene's price increase potential [6]. Trading Opportunities - Market participants should focus on the actual shutdown situation of PDH units in January. If the number of shutdowns increases, it could significantly support PP and propylene prices. Conversely, if shutdowns are fewer than expected, related products may face downward pressure [8]. - Long-term variables to monitor include domestic macro policy releases and the impact of new production capacity planned for 2026, which could affect the supply-demand balance for PP and propylene [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - PP is expected to operate in a volatile manner, with limited upside potential due to an overall unchanged supply - demand pattern, a decrease in downstream orders, and high inventory levels. The L - PP spread is expected to decline as new plastic production capacity comes online and the peak season for agricultural films ends [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - As of the week ending December 26, the PP downstream operating rate decreased by 0.56 percentage points to 53.24% week - on - week, at a relatively low level compared to the same period in previous years. The operating rate of plastic weaving, the main downstream of PP raffia, dropped by 0.26 percentage points to 43.74% week - on - week, and orders continued to decline slightly, slightly lower than the same period last year [1]. - On December 31, there were few changes in maintenance devices. The PP enterprise operating rate remained at around 82%, at a moderately low level, and the production ratio of standard raffia remained at around 27.5%. Petrochemical inventory is at a relatively high level compared to the same period in recent years, with significant pressure [1][4]. - On the cost side, due to oversupply in the crude oil market and geopolitical tensions, the rebound of crude oil prices is limited. New production capacity of 400,000 tons/year from PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical was put into operation in mid - October, and there have been few changes in maintenance devices recently [1]. - The downstream is at the end of the peak season, orders for plastic weaving and other products continue to decline, the price of BOPP film has fallen again, and the lack of large - scale centralized procurement in the market has limited the boost to the market [1]. - China's manufacturing PMI, non - manufacturing business activity index, and composite PMI output index in December all rose to the expansion range, which boosted market sentiment, but the overall supply - demand pattern of PP remains unchanged [1]. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The PP2605 contract decreased in positions and operated in a volatile manner, with a minimum price of 6326 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 6375 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 6348 yuan/ton, above the 20 - day moving average, with a gain of 0.67%. The open interest decreased by 33,492 lots to 507,887 lots [2]. - Spot: PP spot prices in various regions partially increased, with raffia priced at 5920 - 6330 yuan/ton [3]. Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On December 31, there were few changes in maintenance devices. The PP enterprise operating rate remained at around 82%, at a moderately low level, and the production ratio of standard raffia remained at around 27.5% [1][4]. - Demand: As of the week ending December 26, the PP downstream operating rate decreased by 0.56 percentage points to 53.24% week - on - week, at a relatively low level compared to the same period in previous years. The operating rate of plastic weaving, the main downstream of PP raffia, dropped by 0.26 percentage points to 43.74% week - on - week, and orders continued to decline slightly, slightly lower than the same period last year [1][4]. - Inventory: On Wednesday, the petrochemical morning inventory increased by 30,000 tons week - on - week to 630,000 tons, 110,000 tons higher than the same period last year. Petrochemical inventory is at a relatively high level compared to the same period in recent years [4]. Raw Material End - Brent crude oil's 03 contract fell below $62 per barrel, and the CFR propylene price in China remained flat week - on - week at $740 per ton [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The PP market is expected to move in a volatile range. The overall supply - demand pattern of PP remains unchanged, with limited upside potential. The L - PP spread is expected to decline due to new PP capacity and the end of the agricultural film peak season [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - As of the week ending December 26, the downstream PP operating rate decreased by 0.56 percentage points to 53.24% week - on - week, at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. The operating rate of plastic weaving, the main downstream of drawstring, dropped by 0.26 percentage points to 43.74% week - on - week, and orders decreased slightly, slightly lower than the same period last year [1] - On December 30, new maintenance units such as the first line of Donghua Energy's second - phase project were added. The PP enterprise operating rate dropped to around 82%, at a moderately low level, and the production ratio of drawstring remained at around 27.5% [1][4] - Currently, petrochemical inventory is at a relatively high level in the same period in recent years, with significant pressure [1] - Due to oversupply in the crude oil market, the geopolitical situation between the US and Venezuela has escalated, and Russia reported 91 Ukrainian drones attacking Putin's residence. The rebound of crude oil prices is limited [1] - There is new capacity of 400,000 tons/year from PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical put into production in mid - October, and the number of maintenance units has increased recently. The downstream is at the end of the peak season, orders for plastic weaving continue to decline, the price of BOPP film has dropped again, and there is a lack of large - scale centralized procurement, which has limited support for the market [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The PP2605 contract increased in positions and moved in a volatile range. The lowest price was 6,271 yuan/ton, the highest was 6,346 yuan/ton, and it closed at 6,321 yuan/ton, above the 20 - day moving average, with a gain of 0.48%. The open interest increased by 23,919 lots to 541,379 lots [2] - Spot: The spot prices of PP in various regions partially increased. Drawstring was reported at 5,920 - 6,330 yuan/ton [3] Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On December 30, new maintenance units such as the first line of Donghua Energy's second - phase project were added. The PP enterprise operating rate dropped to around 82%, at a moderately low level, and the production ratio of drawstring remained at around 27.5% [4] - Demand: As of the week ending December 26, the downstream PP operating rate decreased by 0.56 percentage points to 53.24% week - on - week, at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. Among them, the operating rate of plastic weaving, the main downstream of drawstring, dropped by 0.26 percentage points to 43.74% week - on - week, and orders decreased slightly, slightly lower than the same period last year [4] - Petrochemical inventory: On Tuesday, the petrochemical morning inventory increased by 20,000 tons to 600,000 tons week - on - week, 50,000 tons higher than the same period last year, and is currently at a relatively high level in the same period in recent years [4] Raw Material End - Brent crude oil's 03 contract rose to $62 per barrel, and the CFR propylene price in China remained flat at $740 per ton week - on - week [6]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View of the Report - The PP market is expected to have limited upside potential due to unchanged overall supply - demand patterns, shortened downstream order cycles, and some falling PP spot prices [1]. - The L - PP spread is expected to decline as there are new plastic production capacity coming on - stream and the peak season for agricultural films is ending [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Analysis - As of the week ending December 19, the PP downstream operating rate decreased 0.19 percentage points to 53.80% week - on - week, at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. The operating rate of the plastic weaving industry, the main downstream of the drawstring grade, dropped 0.06 percentage points to 44.00% week - on - week, and the plastic weaving orders continued to decline slightly, slightly lower than the same period last year [1][4]. - On December 24, new maintenance devices were added at Guangzhou Petrochemical, and the PP enterprise operating rate dropped to around 82%, at a moderately low level. The production ratio of the standard drawstring grade decreased to around 27% [1][4]. - The petrochemical inventory is currently at a relatively high level in the same period in recent years, and the destocking is slow. The cost of crude oil has limited rebound due to oversupply and geopolitical issues. There is new production capacity of 400,000 tons/year from PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical put into production in mid - October, and there has been a slight increase in maintenance devices recently. The downstream is at the end of the peak season, orders are decreasing, and the market lacks large - scale centralized purchases [1]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The PP2605 contract increased in a volatile manner with a reduced position. The lowest price was 6,157 yuan/ton, the highest price was 6,281 yuan/ton, and it closed at 6,278 yuan/ton, below the 20 - day moving average, with a gain of 1.93%. The open interest decreased by 18,588 lots to 539,752 lots [2]. - Spot: The spot prices of PP in most regions declined. The drawstring grade was quoted at 5,900 - 6,260 yuan/ton [3]. 3.3. Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On December 24, new maintenance devices were added at Guangzhou Petrochemical, and the PP enterprise operating rate dropped to around 82%, at a moderately low level. The production ratio of the standard drawstring grade decreased to around 27% [1][4]. - Demand: As of the week ending December 19, the PP downstream operating rate decreased 0.19 percentage points to 53.80% week - on - week, at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. The operating rate of the plastic weaving industry, the main downstream of the drawstring grade, dropped 0.06 percentage points to 44.00% week - on - week, and the plastic weaving orders continued to decline slightly, slightly lower than the same period last year [1][4]. - Inventory: On Wednesday, the petrochemical morning inventory decreased by 20,000 tons to 690,000 tons week - on - week, 100,000 tons higher than the same period last year. The petrochemical destocking is slow recently, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a relatively high level in the same period in recent years [4]. 3.4. Raw Material End - Brent crude oil's 03 contract rose to $62 per barrel, and the CFR price of propylene in China remained flat at $740 per ton week - on - week [6].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall PP supply - demand pattern remains unchanged, with the downstream order cycle shortening and some PP spot prices still falling. It is expected that PP will fluctuate weakly. Due to new plastic production capacity coming on - stream recently and the gradual exit of the agricultural film peak season, the L - PP spread is expected to narrow [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - As of the week ending December 19th, the PP downstream operating rate decreased by 0.19 percentage points to 53.80% week - on - week, at a relatively low level in the same period of previous years. Among them, the operating rate of the plastic weaving industry, the main downstream of the drawstring, decreased by 0.06 percentage points to 44.00% week - on - week, and plastic weaving orders continued to decline slightly, slightly lower than the same period last year [1] - On December 23rd, there were few changes in the maintenance devices. The operating rate of PP enterprises remained at around 82.5%, at a moderately low level, and the production proportion of the standard drawstring increased to around 28%. Recently, the inventory reduction of petrochemicals has been slow, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a relatively high level in the same period in recent years [1][7] - On the cost side, with an oversupply of crude oil and the escalation of the geopolitical situation between the United States and Venezuela, the rebound of crude oil prices is limited. In terms of supply, the new production capacity of 400,000 tons/year of PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical was put into production in mid - October, and the number of maintenance devices has increased recently. The downstream is at the end of the peak season, orders for plastic weaving and the like continue to decline, the price of BOPP film has stabilized after the decline, and the market lacks large - scale centralized procurement, which has limited support for the market. Traders generally offer discounts to stimulate sales [1] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions Futures - The PP2605 contract increased its positions and oscillated downward, with a minimum price of 6,200 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 6,273 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 6,213 yuan/ton, below the 20 - day moving average, with a decline of 1.24%. The open interest increased by 10,464 lots to 533,959 lots [2] Spot - The spot prices of PP in most regions have declined. The drawstring is quoted at 5,930 - 6,280 yuan/ton [5] 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - On the supply side, on December 23rd, there were few changes in the maintenance devices, and the operating rate of PP enterprises remained at around 82.5%, at a moderately low level [1][7] - In terms of demand, as of the week ending December 19th, the PP downstream operating rate decreased by 0.19 percentage points to 53.80% week - on - week, at a relatively low level in the same period of previous years. Among them, the operating rate of the plastic weaving industry, the main downstream of the drawstring, decreased by 0.06 percentage points to 44.00% week - on - week, and plastic weaving orders continued to decline slightly, slightly lower than the same period last year [1][7] - On Tuesday, the early petrochemical inventory decreased by 10,000 tons to 710,000 tons week - on - week, 100,000 tons higher than the same period last year. Recently, the inventory reduction of petrochemicals has been slow, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a relatively high level in the same period in recent years [7] 3.4 Raw Material End - The Brent crude oil 03 contract rose above $61 per barrel, and the CFR propylene price in China remained flat week - on - week at $740 per ton [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall supply - demand pattern of PP remains unchanged, with downstream order cycles shortening and PP's rebound being blocked. It is expected that PP will show a weak and volatile trend. Due to the possibility of new PP production capacity coming on - stream this year and the gradual end of the agricultural film peak season, the L - PP spread is expected to decline [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - As of the week of December 19, the downstream PP operating rate decreased by 0.19 percentage points to 53.80% week - on - week, at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. Among them, the operating rate of plastic weaving, the main downstream of drawstring, decreased by 0.06 percentage points to 44.00% week - on - week, and plastic weaving orders continued to decline slightly, slightly lower than the same period last year [1] - On December 19, there were little changes in maintenance devices. The PP enterprise operating rate remained at around 83%, at a moderately low level, and the production ratio of standard drawstring dropped to around 27% [1][4] - Recently, the destocking of petrochemicals has been slow, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a relatively high level in the same period in recent years [1][4] - On the cost side, some previously faulty oil fields in Iraq have resumed production. The US is still striving to promote peace talks between Russia and Ukraine, and Ukraine has made certain compromises on security guarantees. The cracking spread of refined oil products in Europe and the US has been continuously falling, and the crude oil price has declined [1] - In terms of supply, the new 400,000 - ton/year capacity of PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical was put into operation in mid - October. Recently, the number of maintenance devices has increased slightly. The downstream is at the end of the peak season, orders for plastic weaving continue to decline, the price of BOPP film has stabilized after a decline, the market lacks large - scale centralized procurement, which has limited support for the market, and traders generally offer discounts to stimulate transactions [1] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions Futures - The PP2605 contract increased positions and oscillated downward, with a minimum price of 6,200 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 6,273 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 6,213 yuan/ton, below the 20 - day moving average, with a decline of 1.24%. The position increased by 10,464 lots to 533,959 lots [2] Spot - The spot prices of PP in various regions mostly declined. The drawstring was reported at 5,960 - 6,280 yuan/ton [3] 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - On the supply side, on December 19, there were little changes in maintenance devices. The PP enterprise operating rate remained at around 83%, at a moderately low level, and the production ratio of standard drawstring dropped to around 27% [4] - On the demand side, as of the week of December 19, the downstream PP operating rate decreased by 0.19 percentage points to 53.80% week - on - week, at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. Among them, the operating rate of plastic weaving, the main downstream of drawstring, decreased by 0.06 percentage points to 44.00% week - on - week, and plastic weaving orders continued to decline slightly, slightly lower than the same period last year [4] - The early petrochemical inventory on Friday decreased by 10,000 tons to 660,000 tons week - on - week, 75,000 tons higher than the same period last year. Recently, the destocking of petrochemicals has been slow, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a relatively high level in the same period in recent years [4] - For the raw material crude oil, the Brent crude oil 03 contract fell below $60/barrel, and the CFR propylene price in China decreased by $5/ton to $740/ton week - on - week [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The PP market is expected to move in a volatile manner, with limited upside potential in the near term due to an unchanged supply - demand pattern. The L - PP spread is expected to decline as there may be new PP capacity coming on - stream this year and the peak season for agricultural films is gradually ending [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - As of the week ending December 12, the downstream PP operating rate rose 0.06 percentage points to 53.99% week - on - week, remaining at a relatively low level compared to the same period in previous years. However, the operating rate of the plastic weaving industry, the main downstream of PP drawstring, dropped 0.04 percentage points to 44.06% week - on - week, and plastic weaving orders continued to decline slightly, slightly lower than the same period last year [1] - On December 18, new maintenance units such as Yulong Petrochemical's fifth line were added, causing the PP enterprise operating rate to fall to around 83%, a relatively low - to - neutral level, while the production ratio of standard drawstring rose to around 28% [1][4] - Recently, the de - stocking of petrochemicals has been slow, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a relatively high level compared to the same period in recent years [1][4] - On the cost side, some previously malfunctioning oil fields in Iraq have resumed production. The US is still actively promoting peace talks between Russia and Ukraine, and Ukraine has made certain compromises on security guarantees. The crack spread of refined oil products in Europe and the US has been continuously falling, leading to a decline in crude oil prices [1] - In terms of supply, Sinopec Guangxi Petrochemical with a new production capacity of 400,000 tons per year was put into operation in mid - October. Recently, the number of maintenance units has increased slightly. The downstream is at the end of the peak season, orders for plastic weaving continue to decline, the price of BOPP film has stabilized after a drop, and the market lacks large - scale centralized procurement, which has limited impact on boosting the market. Traders generally offer discounts to stimulate sales [1] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions 3.2.1 Futures - The PP2605 contract increased its positions and moved in a volatile manner, with a minimum price of 6,263 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 6,312 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 6,279 yuan/ton, below the 20 - day moving average, with a gain of 0.45%. The open interest increased by 4,001 lots to 523,495 lots [2] 3.2.2 Spot - The spot prices of PP in most regions remained stable. The drawstring was quoted at 5,980 - 6,280 yuan/ton [3] 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - On the supply side, on December 18, new maintenance units such as Yulong Petrochemical's fifth line were added, causing the PP enterprise operating rate to fall to around 83%, a relatively low - to - neutral level, while the production ratio of standard drawstring rose to around 28% [4] - On the demand side, as of the week ending December 12, the downstream PP operating rate rose 0.06 percentage points to 53.99% week - on - week, remaining at a relatively low level compared to the same period in previous years. However, the operating rate of the plastic weaving industry, the main downstream of PP drawstring, dropped 0.04 percentage points to 44.06% week - on - week, and plastic weaving orders continued to decline slightly, slightly lower than the same period last year [4] - On Thursday, the early petrochemical inventory decreased by 30,000 tons to 670,000 tons week - on - week, 60,000 tons higher than the same period last year. Recently, the de - stocking of petrochemicals has been slow, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a relatively high level compared to the same period in recent years [4] 3.4 Raw Material End - The Brent crude oil 03 contract fell below $60 per barrel, and the CFR propylene price in China remained flat at $745 per ton week - on - week [6]