Core Insights - The paper predicts that in the era of AGI, while the economy may experience exponential growth due to the expansion of computing power, ordinary people's wages will be "locked" by the cost of computing power, becoming completely decoupled from economic growth [1][2][15]. Group 1: Wage Dynamics in the AGI Economy - In traditional economics, wages are linked to "skill scarcity," where individuals can command a premium for unique skills [4]. - The paper argues that in an AGI economy, wages will depend on the computing power required to replicate a person's skills, rather than the scarcity of those skills [5][10]. - The value of professions, such as that of a surgeon, will be determined by the computing power needed for AGI to simulate their tasks [9][11]. Group 2: Wealth Distribution and Power Shift - The model suggests that as AGI automates all bottleneck jobs, the share of labor in GDP will approach zero, with nearly all new wealth flowing to computing capital [22][23]. - Computing power will become the core asset determining wealth distribution, akin to land and machinery during the Industrial Revolution [25]. - Companies like Microsoft are already investing heavily in AI infrastructure, with plans to spend approximately $80 billion on AI-driven data centers in the 2025 fiscal year [26]. Group 3: The Role of Accessory Work - While AGI will automate many tasks, there will still be "accessory work" that holds social value but does not drive economic growth, such as caregiving and artistic endeavors [35][36]. - These roles may not provide increasing income but will retain a necessary social significance, as they are less likely to be automated due to their complexity or the value of human interaction [41][42]. Group 4: Future Wealth Distribution Mechanisms - The paper highlights a critical issue: as labor's share of GDP diminishes, a new mechanism for wealth distribution must be established to address the concentration of wealth among computing power owners [51][52]. - Potential solutions include universal dividends from computing profits or treating computing resources as public capital, similar to Norway's oil fund model [56]. - The concentration of computing power among a few tech giants raises concerns about increasing social inequality if wealth distribution mechanisms are not implemented [59][60].

在大多数人的直觉里，只要经济持续增长，工资总会水涨船高。 可最新的一篇论文却抛出残酷预言：在AGI时代，经济会因为算力扩张而狂飙不止，但普通人的工资却被「算力成本」锁死，彻底与增长脱钩。 也就是说，哪怕GDP翻十倍，你的收入可能一分钱没涨。 真正的问题不只是失业，而是——当劳动不再驱动增长，我们的价值由谁来定价？ AGI时代或将带来前所未有的繁荣：算力推动经济狂飙，但人类工资却被钉死在「算力成本」上，与增长彻底脱钩。耶鲁学者Restrepo的研究 指出，劳动份额将归零，财富全面流向算力资本。人类或许仍被需要，却只停留在护理、陪伴等附属岗位。在这样的未来，工作还有意义吗？ 论文链接：https://conference.nber.org/conf_papers/f227505.pdf 当工资被算力定价，人类能靠什么涨薪？ 在传统经济学里，工资往往与「技能稀缺性」挂钩：你能完成别人做不了的事，就能拿到溢价。 但Restrepo在论文里抛出一个惊悚结论：在AGI经济中，工资不再取决于你的技能有多稀缺，而是取决于复现你这份技能所需的算力成本。 论文里有一个关键公式： $\chi_{t}(a)=L_{t}(a)+\fr ...