Core Insights - The paper predicts that in the era of AGI, while the economy may experience exponential growth due to the expansion of computing power, ordinary people's wages will be "locked" by the cost of computing power, becoming completely decoupled from economic growth [1][2][15]. Group 1: Wage Dynamics in the AGI Economy - In traditional economics, wages are linked to "skill scarcity," where individuals can command a premium for unique skills [4]. - The paper argues that in an AGI economy, wages will depend on the computing power required to replicate a person's skills, rather than the scarcity of those skills [5][10]. - The value of professions, such as that of a surgeon, will be determined by the computing power needed for AGI to simulate their tasks [9][11]. Group 2: Wealth Distribution and Power Shift - The model suggests that as AGI automates all bottleneck jobs, the share of labor in GDP will approach zero, with nearly all new wealth flowing to computing capital [22][23]. - Computing power will become the core asset determining wealth distribution, akin to land and machinery during the Industrial Revolution [25]. - Companies like Microsoft are already investing heavily in AI infrastructure, with plans to spend approximately $80 billion on AI-driven data centers in the 2025 fiscal year [26]. Group 3: The Role of Accessory Work - While AGI will automate many tasks, there will still be "accessory work" that holds social value but does not drive economic growth, such as caregiving and artistic endeavors [35][36]. - These roles may not provide increasing income but will retain a necessary social significance, as they are less likely to be automated due to their complexity or the value of human interaction [41][42]. Group 4: Future Wealth Distribution Mechanisms - The paper highlights a critical issue: as labor's share of GDP diminishes, a new mechanism for wealth distribution must be established to address the concentration of wealth among computing power owners [51][52]. - Potential solutions include universal dividends from computing profits or treating computing resources as public capital, similar to Norway's oil fund model [56]. - The concentration of computing power among a few tech giants raises concerns about increasing social inequality if wealth distribution mechanisms are not implemented [59][60].

Core Insights - The era of AGI may lead to unprecedented economic prosperity driven by computational power, but human wages are decoupled from this growth, remaining stagnant despite potential GDP increases [1][30] - A study by Yale scholar Restrepo suggests that labor's share of income will approach zero, with wealth flowing entirely to computational capital, raising questions about the future value of human work [1][11] Economic Dynamics - In traditional economics, wages are linked to skill scarcity, but in an AGI economy, wages will depend on the computational cost to replicate human skills [2][4] - Restrepo categorizes economic activities into bottleneck work and accessory work, indicating that the value of professions will be determined by the computational resources required to simulate them [4][10] Wealth Distribution - As AGI automates bottleneck tasks, labor's contribution to GDP will diminish, with nearly all new wealth directed towards computational capital, akin to land and machinery during the Industrial Revolution [11][15] - Major tech companies are already investing heavily in AI infrastructure, with Microsoft planning to spend approximately $80 billion on AI-driven data centers in fiscal year 2025 [11][13] Labor Market Implications - The labor market may see a shift where the disparity between individuals is determined by proximity to computational resources rather than effort or skill [10][15] - The transition to an AGI-driven economy may exacerbate inequality, as those in positions not yet automated may experience temporary wage spikes, only to face sudden declines once automation is complete [13][15] Future of Work - While AGI may automate many tasks, there will still be a category of accessory work that retains social value, such as caregiving and companionship, though these roles will not drive economic growth [17][22] - The potential for a societal divide exists, where economic growth continues while many individuals remain in low-value roles, relying on emotional labor for their sense of purpose [22][30] Redistribution of Wealth - A critical question arises regarding how to distribute the wealth generated in an AGI economy, as productivity growth will rely on computational resources rather than human labor [23][24] - Possible solutions include universal dividends from computational profits or treating computational resources as public capital, similar to Norway's oil fund model [24][26] Conclusion - The implications of AGI challenge the traditional notion that hard work leads to economic rewards, suggesting a future where human labor is marginalized and the focus shifts to the ownership of computational resources [30][31]