2026 年 1 月 27 日，腾讯研究院主办的 腾 讯 科 技向善创新节 202 6 正式举办。 腾讯研究院创新研究 中心主任、资深专家袁晓辉 女 士在现场进行了演讲。 以下为袁晓辉的演讲全文： 尊敬的各位嘉宾、各位朋友、直播前的朋友们，非常高兴今天我能跟大家分享一些关于 AI 时代的思 考。 今天这个题目非常宏大：AI 时代，为谁而来。 我有两个身份：一个是在腾讯研究院做产业研究，另一个是两个孩子的妈妈。面对如此宏大的命题，我 觉得必须从一个微小的感受开始讲起。 我平时陪伴孩子的时间比较少，因为日常工作非常繁忙。举一个例子：元旦时我带孩子们出游，但由于 我们做产业研究需要持续观察行业，每天都要关注动态，时刻紧跟变化，所以即便出游我也难以放松。 我在手机上看到许多硅谷工程师正在 996 工作，他们一个人指挥着十几个 AI 智能体高速迭代。而在另 一面，因为是假期，我五岁的女儿拉着我滑滑梯，要我爬上滑梯陪她一起玩。我其实非常享受与孩子相 处的时光，觉得孩子软萌可爱，特别治愈。但我发现一个问题：每次陪伴孩子的耐心只能持续二三十分 钟，之后脑海中就会浮现那些硅谷 AI 工程师，开始不由自主地思考他们认知迭代的速度 ...

Core Viewpoint - The valuation of gold is facing severe reassessment amid tightening global liquidity and declines in Bitcoin and commodities, with a warning from Citigroup that gold valuations have reached extreme levels [2][5]. Group 1: Current Valuation Concerns - Citigroup's research indicates that global gold expenditure as a percentage of GDP has surged to 0.7%, the highest in 55 years, suggesting a potential risk of gold prices being halved if the allocation ratio returns to historical norms of 0.35%-0.4% [5][6]. - The current gold price is disconnected from mining production costs, with high-cost gold miners experiencing profit margins at a 50-year high [9]. - The ratio of gold to global broad money supply has reached 16%, exceeding the highs seen during the first oil crisis in the 1970s [9]. Group 2: Future Price Predictions - Citigroup maintains a target price of $5,000 per ounce for the next 0-3 months but expresses caution for the second half of 2026, predicting a decline to $4,000 per ounce by 2027 [5][21]. - The report outlines three scenarios for future gold prices: a bull market scenario with a 20% probability leading to $6,000, a baseline scenario with a 60% probability resulting in $4,000, and a bear market scenario with a 20% probability dropping to $3,000 [21]. Group 3: Factors Influencing Future Valuation - Citigroup anticipates that key risk factors supporting current high gold prices will diminish later this year, including geopolitical tensions easing and a potential economic upturn in the U.S. [14][15]. - The report highlights that a mere 5% exit of profit-taking could negate global physical demand, posing a significant risk to the market [18].

欧洲央行行长拉加德指出，必须谨慎对待财富分配，警惕不断扩大的不平等。国际货币基金组织总裁格 奥尔基耶娃则提到，虽然他们近期将今年全球经济增长预测值小幅上调至3.3%，但这种增长水平还不 足以减弱全球债务威胁。 世界经济论坛总裁 布伦德：真正的对话从来都不容易。它需要耐心、承诺和创造力，但它确实是必要 的，因为缺乏沟通会加深分裂。 在主题为"全球经济展望"的本年年会最后一场分论坛上，世界贸易组织总干事伊维拉表示，全球贸易领 域遭受了80年来最严重的冲击，贸易规则受到削弱，必须在各个层面增强韧性以应对未来的不确定性。 （央视财经《天下财经》）当地时间23日，世界经济论坛2026年年会在瑞士达沃斯落下帷幕。与会嘉宾 普遍认为，一个快速变化的世界需要更多对话与合作来应对全球性挑战。 世界经济论坛总裁布伦德在闭幕致辞中总结称，对话是推动世界前进的必要条件。加强市场建设、化解 冲突对立，实现包容性增长并确保其惠及各方，都需要决策者们开展对话。 转载请注明央视财经 编辑：令文芳 ...

世界经济论坛总裁布伦德在闭幕致辞中说，对话是推动世界前进的必要条件。加强市场建设、促进互动 交流、化解冲突对立，实现包容性增长并确保其惠及各方，都需要决策者们开展对话。"真正的对话从 来不易，它需要耐心、承诺和创造力，但不可或缺。" 【纠错】 【责任编辑:张欣然】 谈及如何应对人工智能技术变革带来的风险，伊维拉说："这恰恰说明我们需要考虑全球合作。没有任 何一个国家或地区能独自承担起监管人工智能的责任。" 欧洲央行行长拉加德指出，必须谨慎对待财富分配，警惕正在不断扩大的不平等，"如果不重视这一 点，我们将会面临真正的麻烦"。拉加德认为，信任已经在一定程度上受到侵蚀，她呼吁秉持对话精神 重建信任。 沙特财政大臣穆罕默德·贾丹说："我们必须确保推动更多对话与合作，支持世界经济论坛、世界银行、 国际货币基金组织等机构，因为应对不确定性需要这些机构提供支持。" 新华社瑞士达沃斯1月23日电（记者焦倩 张兆卿）世界经济论坛2026年年会23日在瑞士达沃斯落下帷 幕。在当天举行的年会最后一场分论坛上，与会嘉宾普遍认为，一个快速变化的世界需要更多对话与合 作来应对全球性挑战。 世界贸易组织总干事伊维拉表示，全球贸易领域遭受 ...

明天，我还会在老地方澳门新濠会场讨论：新共识VS旧信仰，黄金作为"货币锚"向"信用锚"叙事的转变。新的战场如何为被系统吞噬，不再被因果牵 制。 表面解释黄金上涨归因于：地缘风险，贸易冲突，经济下行，美债危机，美元信用体系崩塌……这只是浅层的因素，更深一层是结构变了，共识变了。 今天，起程澳门金荣奖年度活动，上一次还是去年5月份。 记得当时黄金3200美元，最高只到3500美元，讨论的主题是黄金未来100美能不能过3500美元，现场火药味十足，各有观点互不退让。 现在回头看看过去的高点，成了至今再也到不了的过去，金价就像分手的女友头也不回，想说声抱歉当初不该轻易放手的机会也不给。 截至今天黄金4600美元，不是让过去证明自己错了，更不是后悔当初没有做时间的朋友。而是让过去的认知退役，旧系统旧认知退场，黄金的上涨已经攻 破了原有的结构框架，需要建立新的认知模型。 让我想起十几年前的"榆林"，煤矿造就了无数财富神话，当时人给煤老板融Z借钱，邻里之间见面就问：你放过去多少钱，利息多少？，甚至有人贷款借 钱给别人，到处充满着机遇和财富。直到后来煤矿生意不再好做，跑路坏账没钱归还，邻里见面问：你的钱收回来了没？听说某某又 ...

Core Insights - The main investment narrative for 2025 is not the strong performance of the US stock market, but rather the significant changes in currency values and the global shift in asset allocation, with gold emerging as the true winner [1][5][12]. Currency Value Changes - The US dollar has depreciated significantly against other currencies, with declines of 13% against the Swiss franc, 12% against the euro, and 4% against the Chinese yuan. This depreciation creates an illusion of asset appreciation when measured in local currency [6][12]. - Gold has established itself as a major reserve asset, taking on the role of the second-largest reserve currency, highlighting the critical impact of currency movements on wealth transfer [6][12]. Stock Market Performance - The S&P 500 index recorded an 18% total return in USD, driven by a 12% increase in earnings and a 5% rise in price-to-earnings ratios. However, when measured in stronger currencies, the performance appears significantly weaker [8][15]. - The "Seven Giants" within the S&P 500 saw a 22% earnings growth, while the remaining 493 stocks experienced a 9% growth, indicating a disparity in profit distribution favoring capital owners over workers [8][15]. Global Market Dynamics - Non-US markets, including Europe, China, and Japan, outperformed US stocks, with emerging markets showing an overall return of 34%. This reflects a significant capital shift away from US assets [5][14]. - The interest of foreign investors in US dollar-denominated assets is declining, leading to a preference for non-US equities and bonds [6][14]. Political and Geopolitical Factors - The political landscape is shifting from multilateralism to unilateralism, increasing military spending and sanctions, which diminishes the attractiveness of US dollar assets [10][25]. - The growing wealth gap, exacerbated by inflation, is likely to lead to political unrest and conflict between left and right factions in the US, impacting market stability [10][20]. Non-Liquid Markets - Non-liquid markets such as venture capital, private equity, and real estate are under pressure, facing significant debt rollover challenges and a potential rise in liquidity premiums [9][19]. - The current low liquidity premium may lead to a decline in the value of non-liquid assets compared to liquid ones, posing risks for investors [9][19].

Core Viewpoint - Warren Buffett, with a net worth of nearly $150 billion, is recognized as one of the richest individuals globally, primarily due to the success of his holding company, Berkshire Hathaway [1]. Group 1: Buffett's Holdings - Buffett holds approximately 198,117 shares of Berkshire Hathaway Class A stock, valued at around $747,400 per share, totaling nearly $148 billion [3]. - The majority of Buffett's net worth is directly linked to the performance of Berkshire Hathaway stock prices, making it almost entirely dependent on this asset [3]. Group 2: Distribution of Shares - If Buffett were to distribute his shares evenly among the current U.S. population of approximately 342,788,829, each individual would receive about 0.0006% of a share, equating to a value of around $485.81 per person at current stock prices [4][5]. - If only adults (approximately 305,939,029) were eligible for the shares, the ownership per person would increase to about 0.00065% [5]. Group 3: Long-term Value of Shares - Holding onto the distributed Berkshire Hathaway shares for 10 years could potentially double the net worth of the recipients, given the historical average return of 13.68% per year over the last decade [6][7]. - Although the return is slightly lower than the S&P 500's average of over 15% during the same period, the compounding effect over 10 years could significantly enhance the value of the shares [7].

Core Viewpoint - Ctrip has emerged as one of the most profitable internet companies in China, showcasing a remarkable financial performance in Q3, with a revenue of 18.3 billion yuan and a net profit of 19.9 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 16% and 194% respectively [3][4]. Financial Performance - Ctrip's Q3 revenue reached 18.3 billion yuan, marking a 16% increase year-on-year [3]. - The net profit, including partial investment income, was 19.9 billion yuan, showing a staggering 194% growth compared to the previous year [3]. - In the first three quarters of the year, the entire A-share tourism sector, including airlines and hotels, reported a combined net profit of approximately 19 billion yuan, indicating that Ctrip's profit nearly equals the total profit of China's entire tourism industry [5][6]. Profitability Comparison - Ctrip's profit margins are significantly higher than traditional luxury brands, with a gross margin of 81.68%, surpassing that of Hermes (around 70%) and approaching Kweichow Moutai (91%) [10]. - Ctrip operates as a middleman in the tourism industry, generating substantial profits without owning physical assets like hotel rooms or airplanes [9][12]. Business Model Insights - Ctrip's business model is characterized by low marginal costs, as it primarily functions as a platform that connects consumers with service providers, requiring minimal operational overhead [14][16]. - The company has effectively established itself as a toll collector in the tourism sector, benefiting from the high demand for hotel and scenic area access without the associated operational responsibilities [13][17]. Industry Dynamics - The hotel industry is heavily reliant on Ctrip for customer traffic, with accommodation bookings contributing 44% of Ctrip's revenue, amounting to 8 billion yuan in Q3 [19][20]. - Many hotels face a dilemma: disconnecting from Ctrip leads to a loss of customers, while remaining connected incurs high commission fees, often around 15%, which erodes their already thin profit margins [22][24]. - The hotel sector in China is fragmented, with a low chain rate of 40%, making it difficult for individual hotels to negotiate favorable terms with Ctrip [26]. Market Positioning - In the airline ticket booking sector, Ctrip's commission rates are low due to the strong bargaining power of state-owned airlines, which limits Ctrip's ability to extract high profits [29][31]. - Despite the challenges in the airline sector, Ctrip has diversified its revenue streams through various insurance and service packages, which contribute additional profits [33]. Economic Implications - Ctrip's financial success highlights a concerning trend of wealth concentration among intermediaries, raising questions about the sustainability of such a business model in the long term [36][38]. - The current economic landscape suggests that the focus on platform-based businesses may stifle innovation and real economic growth, as resources are increasingly directed towards profit extraction rather than value creation [41][42].

Group 1 - The company will have a new CEO, Greg Abel, by the end of the year, who is described as an excellent manager and communicator [2] - The company has a unique group of individual shareholders who generously share their wealth with less fortunate groups [2] - The company has a strong focus on maintaining trust and confidence among shareholders, especially during the transition to new leadership [17] Group 2 - The company has a history of successful investments, such as the acquisition of the Omaha Sun newspaper, which later achieved over 100% annual pre-tax returns [6] - The company emphasizes the importance of strong management and the need for vigilance regarding potential health issues among CEOs [19] - The company is committed to operating in a manner that prioritizes shareholder interests and avoids behaviors that could undermine its status as a valuable asset [21]

Core Insights - Warren Buffett, at 95, is making final arrangements for his retirement as CEO of Berkshire Hathaway, transferring $149 billion of his estate to family foundations while retaining enough Class A shares to support successor Greg Abel [2][3] - Buffett announced a donation of over $1.3 billion in Berkshire shares to four family foundations, converting 1,800 Class A shares into 2.7 million Class B shares [2] - The Thanksgiving letter marks Buffett's first major statement since announcing his retirement plans in May, signaling the end of his 60-year management era at Berkshire [2] Leadership Transition - Greg Abel, 63, will take over as CEO in early 2024, while Buffett will remain as chairman and continue the Thanksgiving letter tradition, but will not write the annual report or speak at the annual meeting [3][4] - Abel will also take over the writing of the annual shareholder letter and will host the annual meeting starting next year [3] Financial Performance - Berkshire's core business remains strong, with a 34% year-over-year increase in operating profit for Q3 [3] - As of September 30, Berkshire held a record $381.7 billion in cash, reflecting its robust balance sheet and cautious investment strategy [3] - The company has net sold stocks for 12 consecutive quarters, indicating Buffett's cautious approach in a high-valuation market [3] Future Outlook - Buffett acknowledges that Berkshire's large scale is both an advantage and a limitation, predicting that many companies will outperform Berkshire in the next 10 to 20 years [3] - He expresses confidence in Abel's ability to manage the company and its shareholder funds, stating that no other CEO would be better suited for the role [16][17] Philanthropic Intentions - Buffett is accelerating his charitable donations to ensure his children can lead his nearly complete charitable legacy while they are still healthy and clear-minded [14][15] - He plans to retain some Class A shares until shareholders have confidence in Abel, emphasizing the importance of a smooth transition [15]