证券研究报告|行业专题报告 海外 2025年7月4日 稳定币法案推动行业加速 看好发行平台、支付以及RWA场景 --加密行业专题报告 姓名：郑嘉伟 资格编号：S1350523120001 邮箱：zhengjiawei@huayuanstock.com 证券分析师 证券分析师 姓名：陆韵婷 资格编号：S1350525050002 邮箱：luyuntingn@huayuanstock.com 证券分析师 姓名：郑冰倩 资格编号：S1350525040002 邮箱：zhengbingqian@huayuanstock.com 证券分析师 姓名：于炳麟 资格编号：S1350524060002 邮箱：yubinglin@huayuanstock.com 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 报告要点：看好发行平台、支付、RWA应用场景 n 稳定币法案推动合规机构扎堆发行 行业发展加速 Ø 稳定币作为连接传统金融与区块链经济的重要桥梁，已形成以USDT和USDC为代表的双寡头格局。USDT依托灵活监管，在线下支付、跨境 交易及OTC市场展现强大适用性，截至2025年3月，市占率高达62%；而USDC则凭借全额储备、 ...

Core Insights - The seminar focused on the development trends and policy evolution of global stablecoins, highlighting their operational models, impacts, and regulatory frameworks [1][2]. Group 1: Stablecoin Operational Models and Market Trends - Understanding stablecoins requires examining their technological foundations and operational models, which differentiate them from cryptocurrencies. Stablecoins combine the technological advantages of crypto assets with the value stability of fiat currencies, addressing incentive mechanisms for market participants [1][3]. - Stablecoins have entered a new phase of scaled and compliant development, becoming popular payment tools that integrate with traditional financial systems. The average transaction size of stablecoins has decreased, indicating a shift from investment settlements to cross-border trade and real-world transactions [1][6][7]. - As of June 20, 2025, the global market capitalization of stablecoins reached $261.5 billion, with USD stablecoins accounting for $253.3 billion. Projections suggest that by 2030, stablecoin market capitalization could reach between $1.6 trillion and $3.7 trillion, depending on regulatory clarity [6][7]. Group 2: Impact on International Payment and Currency Systems - The development of stablecoins, particularly USD stablecoins, is creating a new cycle of dollar circulation, reinforcing the dollar's dominance in the international monetary system. Over 95% of stablecoins are fiat-backed, with USD stablecoins making up 99% of that segment [2][11][13]. - The majority of stablecoin reserves are invested in U.S. Treasury securities, with Tether's USDT holding approximately $1.2 trillion in U.S. debt as of March 2025. This trend is expected to continue, potentially leading to stablecoin issuers holding over $1.2 trillion in U.S. Treasuries by 2030 [12][13]. Group 3: Regulatory Challenges and Frameworks - The governance challenges and potential risks associated with stablecoins are becoming increasingly apparent. The U.S. is leading a global shift towards supportive regulatory frameworks for compliant innovation in stablecoins [2][19]. - A "five-pillar framework" for stablecoin regulation has emerged, focusing on the functional positioning of stablecoins, issuer access, operational oversight, reserve fund management, and anti-money laundering measures [20][21]. - Future regulatory considerations include the applicability of existing frameworks to decentralized operations, the need for innovative regulatory approaches leveraging new technologies, and addressing the global nature of cryptocurrency against national governance [25].

Core Insights - The stablecoin industry is approaching a historic moment with Circle, the issuer of USDC, planning to go public on June 5, marking the first IPO in the stablecoin sector, which is seen as a significant step towards mainstream financial acceptance of digital currencies [2][4] - The global stablecoin market is heating up, with Bitcoin prices surpassing $110,000 since 2025, and major banks like JPMorgan and Standard Chartered entering the stablecoin business [2][7] - Hong Kong's "Stablecoin Regulation" officially took effect on May 30, establishing a comprehensive regulatory framework for fiat-backed stablecoins, positioning Hong Kong as a leader in digital financial governance [4][5] Industry Developments - Circle's IPO is expected to provide a valuation benchmark for the stablecoin industry and test traditional capital markets' acceptance of stablecoin business models [4] - The "Stablecoin Regulation" in Hong Kong introduces high standards for licensing, including a minimum paid-up capital of HKD 25 million and strict reserve asset requirements, enhancing market entry barriers and promoting a more professional and transparent stablecoin market [5] - Major banks are accelerating their involvement in the stablecoin sector, with JPMorgan's "JPM Coin" and other banks exploring stablecoin issuance and related services, indicating a shift towards deeper integration of stablecoins in traditional finance [7][8] Regulatory Landscape - The introduction of the "Stablecoin Regulation" in Hong Kong fills a regulatory gap and lays a solid foundation for the compliant development of stablecoins, enhancing investor protection and market confidence [5] - Global competition for stablecoin dominance is intensifying, with the U.S. and EU also working on regulatory frameworks to secure their positions in the evolving digital currency landscape [6][10] - The regulatory environment is expected to evolve, with banks likely to engage more actively in stablecoin issuance, trading, and derivative businesses as frameworks become more established [7][10] Market Dynamics - The rapid growth of stablecoins, particularly those pegged to the U.S. dollar, is enhancing the international influence of the dollar, raising concerns about the implications for traditional monetary systems [9][10] - The integration of stablecoins and cryptocurrencies into traditional financial systems is increasingly recognized for its potential to improve financial service efficiency and reduce costs, suggesting an irreversible trend towards convergence [10]