2. 国际利率市场动态 自2025年11月底以来，全球主要经济体的利率市场普遍出现抛售，主要受央行鹰派转向、数据强劲以及头寸平仓的影响。报告预计美联储将在2026年1月降 息25个基点，英国央行将在12月、3月和6月各降息25个基点，而日本央行将在12月和4月各加息一次。其他主要经济体央行预计将维持利率不变。摩根大通 在策略上建议在年底减少利率组合的风险暴露。 3. 外汇市场观点 报告维持对美元的看空观点，认为美元在2026年上半年仍将面临贬值压力，但贬值幅度和范围可能较之前预期更为温和。主要驱动因素包括全球经济增长的 改善、美国双赤字问题以及美联储政策的不确定性。报告还指出，日本央行的政策调整对日元的影响有限，而人民币升值可能不会是线性的，因为其已经存 在较大的估值折扣。 4. 商品市场分析 报告认为委内瑞拉政权更迭将是2026 - 2027年全球石油供应的最大潜在上行风险。如果发生政治过渡，委内瑞拉的石油产量可能在两年内提升至130万至140 万桶/日，并在未来十年内达到250万桶/日。此外，报告指出白银价格的大幅上涨可能对需求产生破坏性影响，尤其是在太阳能领域，因为白银在太阳能电 池中的使用成本占比已显 ...

Core Viewpoint - HSBC is restructuring its trading division to become a major player in debt financing, driven by CEO Georges Elhedery [1][2] Group 1: Restructuring Details - The G10 currency rates trading department will merge with the foreign exchange, emerging markets rates, and commodities departments to form a new global macro department [1] - Derivatives clearing services will be integrated into the global equities team [1] - All remaining debt market operations, including high-yield and investment-grade bond trading, will fall under a unified "Global Credit and Financing" framework [1] Group 2: Leadership and Management Changes - The new global macro team will be led by Volkan Benihasim, while Franck Lacour will continue to oversee the equities business [2] - A brief internal selection process will be conducted for the new head of Global Credit and Financing, currently led by Antoine Maurel and Monish Tahilramani [2] - Global debt markets head Mehmet Mazi will explore other opportunities as part of the changes [2] Group 3: Strategic Goals - HSBC aims to leverage its large balance sheet to gain more business in trading and markets [2] - The initiatives reflect HSBC's ambition to become a "financing giant," with a focus on prudent technology investments aligned with its leadership goals in financing and trading banking [2]