韦弗表示，在新兴市场主权信贷、本币债券和股票方面，新兴市场资产的表现均优于发达市场，这得益 于美元疲软和新兴市场外汇的相应走强。 韦弗指出："尽管如此，在我们看来，美国信贷利差收紧和美债收益率下降对于新兴市场利差持续走强 和本地债券表现依然至关重要。新兴市场尚未完全脱钩。" 在2021-22年发达经济体领先的短暂时期之后，新兴市场再次超过发达经济体。摩根士丹利的经济学家 预计，利差一直是资本流入的关键驱动因素，这种情况将持续到2026年。印度、越南、埃及和沙特阿拉 伯的改革进展增强了投资者的信心。 智通财经APP获悉，摩根士丹利表示，随着宏观经济、政策和市场动态相互重叠，新兴市场与发达市场 之间的传统界限逐渐消失，新兴市场正以新的强劲势头度过新的一年。 摩根士丹利的西蒙·韦弗表示："对投资者而言，这种趋同意味着新兴市场固定收益正成为新兴市场固定 收益的一个令人信服的替代品。尽管如此，随着这种转变的展开，新兴市场固定收益资产的价格应该会 继续在很大程度上影响新兴市场固定收益的表现。" 韦弗还指出，尽管流入新兴市场的跨界资金势头正在增强，但全球仓位仍偏向于新兴市场，多数投资者 只维持适度的新兴市场固定收益敞口。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that a rise in the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield to 5% poses risks to U.S. equities but presents a buying opportunity for bonds [1] - Roth's chief economist Michael Darda suggests setting a trading range for the 10-year Treasury yield between 4% (sell) and 5% (buy), warning that reaching 5% could lead to a stock market pullback [1] - Since hitting a low of 3.99% in April, the 10-year Treasury yield has risen to around 4.5%, raising concerns among investors about fiscal issues and inflation impacts from tariffs [1] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs expresses a cautious outlook, indicating that the path for risk assets is narrowing again [2] - Goldman strategist Dominic Wilson is particularly worried about rising long-term yields due to international investor sell-offs coinciding with fiscal crises [2] - The report highlights that the U.S. faces the worst growth-inflation dynamics among G10 countries, suggesting that the erosion of the "U.S. exceptionalism" is costly during periods of high financing needs [2]