Group 1: Core Insights - The classic "60/40" stock-bond portfolio strategy is projected to face extremely weak returns over the next decade, with an expected annualized real return of -0.1% after inflation [1] - The main reason for this bleak outlook is the anticipated decline in the performance of U.S. large-cap stocks, which have seen over 15% growth for three consecutive years [1] - Investors are advised to adjust their positions and consider "satellite" assets outside the consensus, including international small and mid-cap stocks, high-yield bonds, emerging market assets, and gold [1] Group 2: Equity Assets - The report highlights international small and mid-cap stocks as a favorable investment, noting a 15% annualized return over the past five years, comparable to U.S. large-cap growth stocks [2] - Quality U.S. stocks, characterized by strong financial health and low debt levels, are also recommended, as they have consistently outperformed other major style factors since 1996 [2] Group 3: Fixed Income - In fixed income, high-yield bonds are seen as offering the best opportunities, with a current default rate of approximately 2.6%, lower than private credit and syndicated loans [5] - Emerging market fixed income has outperformed U.S. and global bonds over the past three years, with annualized returns of 9% to 12% for portfolios including high-dividend emerging market stocks [5] Group 4: Physical Assets and Thematic Investments - Gold is expected to rebound to $4,538 per ounce next year, representing an 8% increase from current levels, driven by strong global central bank demand and rising fiscal deficits [7] - Thematic investment opportunities include artificial intelligence and technology, U.S. industrial revival, and uranium resources, which are projected to have long-term growth potential [10]

Group 1 - Emerging markets are gaining strong momentum as traditional boundaries with developed markets fade, presenting compelling investment opportunities in fixed income [1] - Emerging market assets, including sovereign credit, local currency bonds, and equities, are outperforming developed markets due to a weaker dollar and stronger emerging market currencies [1] - The tightening of U.S. credit spreads and declining U.S. Treasury yields are crucial for the continued strength of emerging market spreads and local bond performance [1] Group 2 - The credibility of emerging market central banks has improved post-COVID, demonstrating their ability to act independently and effectively in the face of shocks [2] - Fiscal conditions remain imbalanced, with developed markets still holding advantages in fiscal capacity, credibility, and lower currency risk [2] - Despite increasing cross-border capital inflows into emerging markets, global positioning remains cautious, with most investors maintaining moderate exposure to emerging market fixed income [2] Group 3 - Morgan Stanley is optimistic about local bonds in Brazil, Colombia, Hungary, and Turkey, as well as certain sovereign credits in Chile, Guatemala, Mexico, Morocco, South Africa, and Zambia [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that a rise in the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield to 5% poses risks to U.S. equities but presents a buying opportunity for bonds [1] - Roth's chief economist Michael Darda suggests setting a trading range for the 10-year Treasury yield between 4% (sell) and 5% (buy), warning that reaching 5% could lead to a stock market pullback [1] - Since hitting a low of 3.99% in April, the 10-year Treasury yield has risen to around 4.5%, raising concerns among investors about fiscal issues and inflation impacts from tariffs [1] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs expresses a cautious outlook, indicating that the path for risk assets is narrowing again [2] - Goldman strategist Dominic Wilson is particularly worried about rising long-term yields due to international investor sell-offs coinciding with fiscal crises [2] - The report highlights that the U.S. faces the worst growth-inflation dynamics among G10 countries, suggesting that the erosion of the "U.S. exceptionalism" is costly during periods of high financing needs [2]