新兴市场固定收益

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大摩:美元疲软和政策可信度在提振新兴市场前景
智通财经网· 2025-08-25 13:41
Group 1 - Emerging markets are gaining strong momentum as traditional boundaries with developed markets fade, presenting compelling investment opportunities in fixed income [1] - Emerging market assets, including sovereign credit, local currency bonds, and equities, are outperforming developed markets due to a weaker dollar and stronger emerging market currencies [1] - The tightening of U.S. credit spreads and declining U.S. Treasury yields are crucial for the continued strength of emerging market spreads and local bond performance [1] Group 2 - The credibility of emerging market central banks has improved post-COVID, demonstrating their ability to act independently and effectively in the face of shocks [2] - Fiscal conditions remain imbalanced, with developed markets still holding advantages in fiscal capacity, credibility, and lower currency risk [2] - Despite increasing cross-border capital inflows into emerging markets, global positioning remains cautious, with most investors maintaining moderate exposure to emerging market fixed income [2] Group 3 - Morgan Stanley is optimistic about local bonds in Brazil, Colombia, Hungary, and Turkey, as well as certain sovereign credits in Chile, Guatemala, Mexico, Morocco, South Africa, and Zambia [2]
警报拉响:美股的“滑铁卢” 却是美债的“黄金坑”!
Jin Shi Shu Ju· 2025-05-21 13:01
Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that a rise in the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield to 5% poses risks to U.S. equities but presents a buying opportunity for bonds [1] - Roth's chief economist Michael Darda suggests setting a trading range for the 10-year Treasury yield between 4% (sell) and 5% (buy), warning that reaching 5% could lead to a stock market pullback [1] - Since hitting a low of 3.99% in April, the 10-year Treasury yield has risen to around 4.5%, raising concerns among investors about fiscal issues and inflation impacts from tariffs [1] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs expresses a cautious outlook, indicating that the path for risk assets is narrowing again [2] - Goldman strategist Dominic Wilson is particularly worried about rising long-term yields due to international investor sell-offs coinciding with fiscal crises [2] - The report highlights that the U.S. faces the worst growth-inflation dynamics among G10 countries, suggesting that the erosion of the "U.S. exceptionalism" is costly during periods of high financing needs [2]