市场表现：上周发达市场表现更优。 股市方面， MSCI 全球 +0.0% ，其中 MSCI 发达市场 +0.2% 、 MSCI 新兴市场 -1.5% 。债市方面，日本长端利率 上行，美国利率下行。大宗方面，银价涨幅居前，大豆跌幅较大。汇率方面，美元升，英镑平，日元贬，人民币升。上周中国股市必需消费、金融、能源材料 领涨，美股可选消费 + 科技更优。 报告导读： 上周发达市场表现更优，欧美股指成交大幅放量，港股卖空比例抬升、恒指波 幅继续下降。 资金面上，联储 26 年降息路径不明，日央行 12 月加息落地。基本面上， 上周港股盈利预期小幅上修，美股科技盈利预期持续上修。 重要提醒 交投情绪：上周欧美股指成交大幅放量。 从成交看，上周美股、欧股、韩股与日股成交走强，港股、 A 股成交走弱。从投资者情绪看，港股投资者情绪环比 下降、处历史偏低位，美股投资者情绪上升、处历史偏高位。从波动率看，上周港股、欧股、美股波动率下降，日股波动率上升。从估值看，上周发达市场整 体估值较前周上升、新兴市场整体估值均较前周下降。 盈利预期：上周港股盈利预期小幅上修，美股科技盈利预期继续上修。 横向对比来看，港股 2025 年盈利预 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Warsaw Stock Exchange plans to abandon its emerging market status and upgrade to a developed market within three to five years [1] Group 1 - The CEO of the Warsaw Stock Exchange announced the strategic shift towards developed market status [1] - The transition is expected to take place over a period of three to five years [1]

Core Points - The South Korean government is planning to extend the foreign exchange market to 24 hours and relax restrictions on non-resident transactions in Korean won, aiming to enhance market access for foreign investors [1] - President Lee Jae-myung emphasized the commitment to improving market transparency, corporate governance, and reducing geopolitical risks during a global investor relations event in New York [1] - The upcoming legislative changes are intended to eliminate structural barriers in the foreign exchange market, which are seen as necessary for South Korea's inclusion in the MSCI developed market index [1][2] Group 1 - The South Korean Ministry of Finance is set to implement 24-hour trading in the foreign exchange market next year [1] - The government aims to ensure that foreign investors can benefit from the "Korean premium" [1] - Structural barriers in the foreign exchange market are currently limiting non-resident transactions due to reporting obligations and regulatory restrictions [1] Group 2 - MSCI has stated that South Korea must achieve full currency convertibility to be classified as a developed market [2] - The report highlights the need to abolish capital controls and establish deeper, more active onshore and offshore markets [2] - Key characteristics of developed foreign exchange markets include broad participation from global investors, real-time price transparency, and a reliable settlement system [2]

Group 1 - iShares Core MSCI Emerging Markets ETF attracted $5.8 billion in capital over four months following the "liberation day" policy announcement, with a 5.8% increase in assets, outperforming the 3.3% growth of the Vanguard developed markets ETF [2] - Emerging market policymakers have demonstrated market discipline, maintaining sustainable debt levels compared to developed markets, with countries like Brazil and India having sovereign debt to GDP ratios lower by 15-20 percentage points than G7 nations [2] - Emerging markets have made significant progress in financial deepening, industrial upgrading, and institutional optimization over the past decade, with Vietnam's manufacturing value-added to GDP rising to 25%, an 8 percentage point increase since 2015 [2] Group 2 - The expectation of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts has led to a weakening dollar index, creating a favorable environment for the revaluation of emerging market assets [3] - Emerging market stocks have shown a median excess return of 8%-10% relative to developed markets during periods of dollar decline, with the performance gap between emerging and developed market indices widening to 5% for the 2024-2025 cycle [3] - Institutional investors are reassessing emerging markets, with current risk premiums for emerging market stocks exceeding those of developed markets by 150 basis points, compared to a historical average of 100 basis points [3]

Group 1 - Emerging markets are gaining strong momentum as traditional boundaries with developed markets fade, presenting compelling investment opportunities in fixed income [1] - Emerging market assets, including sovereign credit, local currency bonds, and equities, are outperforming developed markets due to a weaker dollar and stronger emerging market currencies [1] - The tightening of U.S. credit spreads and declining U.S. Treasury yields are crucial for the continued strength of emerging market spreads and local bond performance [1] Group 2 - The credibility of emerging market central banks has improved post-COVID, demonstrating their ability to act independently and effectively in the face of shocks [2] - Fiscal conditions remain imbalanced, with developed markets still holding advantages in fiscal capacity, credibility, and lower currency risk [2] - Despite increasing cross-border capital inflows into emerging markets, global positioning remains cautious, with most investors maintaining moderate exposure to emerging market fixed income [2] Group 3 - Morgan Stanley is optimistic about local bonds in Brazil, Colombia, Hungary, and Turkey, as well as certain sovereign credits in Chile, Guatemala, Mexico, Morocco, South Africa, and Zambia [2]

Core Insights - HSBC's quarterly survey indicates that investor optimism towards emerging markets has reached its highest level in over two years, with approximately 44% of respondents expressing a positive outlook for the next three months [1] - This optimism marks an increase from 36% in March, representing the highest level since March 2023 [1] - The survey encompasses funds managing a total of $414 billion in assets within emerging markets [1] - HSBC economist Murat Ulgen states that the consensus remains that emerging market equities are expected to outperform developed market equities in the coming months [1]