| | | | | 燃料油早报 | | 研究中心能化团队 2025/10/27 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 燃 料 油 | | | | | | | | | 日期 | 鹿特丹3.5% HSF | 鹿特丹0.5% VLS | 鹿特丹HSFO-Br | 鹿特丹10ppm G | 鹿特丹VLSFO-G | LGO-Brent M1 | 鹿特丹VLSFO-H | | | O掉期 M1 | FO掉期 M1 | ent M1 | asoil掉期 M1 | O M1 | | SFO M1 | | 2025/10/20 | 365.63 | 394.21 | -3.00 | 614.83 | -220.62 | 23.69 | 28.58 | | 2025/10/21 | 366.84 | 397.70 | -3.25 | 617.65 | -219.95 | 23.78 | 30.86 | | 2025/10/22 | 373.89 | 402.66 | -3.12 | 632.26 | -229.60 | 24.42 | 28.77 | | ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - This week, the high - sulfur cracking of Singapore 380cst rebounded and then weakened, the near - month spread fluctuated, and the EW spread fluctuated. The 9 - 10 spread weakened to $3.5/ton, the basis oscillated at a low level (-$4), and the internal - external spread of FU01 slightly weakened to -$0.8. The 0.5 cracking of Singapore oscillated and weakened, the 9 - 10 spread weakened to $2.75/ton, and the internal - external spread of LU11 oscillated at $9 [3][4]. - This week, Singapore's on - shore inventory decreased, but the inventory was still not the highest in the same historical period. The floating storage decreased significantly month - on - month. Saudi Arabia's shipments decreased significantly, the arrivals oscillated this week, the shipments from the UAE rebounded month - on - month, and the net exports increased significantly. The on - shore inventory in Fujairah, the Middle East decreased, the floating storage of high - sulfur and low - sulfur increased significantly, the residue inventory in ARA increased, and the residue inventory in the US decreased, showing a large inventory contradiction [4]. - The east - west divergence of high - sulfur fuel oil continued. In the heavy - oil pattern, the cracking of Singapore 380cst was the weakest, and the premium of heavy crude oil was the strongest. A two - way regression is expected in the future. This week, LU remained weak, the basis of the external MF0.5 weakened again and then oscillated. The LU quota was issued, and the internal - external spread oscillated. In the short term, pay attention to the opportunity of the widening of the high - sulfur 380 EW spread. Fundamentally, the supply of high - sulfur fuel oil is expected to increase, and the supply - demand pattern will weaken [4]. Group 3: Data Summary Rotterdam Fuel Oil | Type | 2025/08/12 | 2025/08/13 | 2025/08/14 | 2025/08/15 | 2025/08/18 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O Swap M1 | 396.94 | 389.64 | 394.21 | 390.27 | 388.24 | -2.03 | | Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO Swap M1 | 452.82 | 448.06 | 453.27 | 452.69 | 450.47 | -2.22 | | Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1 | -3.23 | -3.58 | -3.95 | -4.33 | -4.85 | -0.52 | | Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil Swap M1 | 638.66 | 628.39 | 631.89 | 635.32 | 624.89 | -10.43 | | Rotterdam VLSFO - Gasoil M1 | -185.84 | -180.33 | -178.62 | -182.63 | -174.42 | 8.21 | | LGO - Brent M1 | 22.10 | 21.18 | 20.51 | 21.97 | 19.81 | -2.16 | | Rotterdam VLSFO - HSFO M1 | 55.88 | 58.42 | 59.06 | 62.42 | 62.23 | -0.19 | [1] Singapore Fuel Oil | Type | 2025/08/12 | 2025/08/13 | 2025/08/14 | 2025/08/15 | 2025/08/18 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Singapore 380cst M1 | 401.22 | 394.38 | 391.90 | 390.95 | 390.54 | - | | Singapore 180cst M1 | 411.88 | 405.63 | 403.65 | 403.51 | 401.94 | - | | Singapore VLSFO M1 | 484.51 | 476.53 | 476.59 | 476.79 | 479.27 | - | | Singapore Gasoil M1 | 85.26 | 83.31 | 83.35 | 82.76 | 82.47 | - | | Singapore 380cst - Brent M1 | -3.02 | -3.07 | -3.49 | -4.09 | -4.49 | - | | Singapore VLSFO - Gasoil M1 | -146.41 | -139.96 | -140.20 | -135.63 | -131.01 | - | [1] Singapore Fuel Oil Spot | Type | 2025/08/12 | 2025/08/13 | 2025/08/14 | 2025/08/15 | 2025/08/18 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FOB 380cst | 396.64 | 388.41 | 387.09 | 387.36 | 387.68 | 0.32 | | FOB VLSFO | 483.55 | 475.21 | 476.12 | 477.51 | 475.97 | -1.54 | | 380 Basis | -3.95 | -4.05 | -3.95 | -3.40 | -2.90 | 0.50 | | High - sulfur Internal - External Spread | 1.5 | 4.5 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 0.1 | -2.4 | | Low - sulfur Internal - External Spread | 8.8 | 9.4 | 6.8 | 8.2 | 8.7 | 0.5 | [2] Domestic FU | Type | 2025/08/12 | 2025/08/13 | 2025/08/14 | 2025/08/15 | 2025/08/18 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FU 01 | 2800 | 2772 | 2750 | 2746 | 2739 | -7 | | FU 05 | 2770 | 2751 | 2736 | 2741 | 2735 | -6 | | FU 09 | 2770 | 2730 | 2700 | 2691 | 2713 | 22 | | FU 01 - 05 | 30 | 21 | 14 | 5 | 4 | -1 | | FU 05 - 09 | 0 | 21 | 36 | 50 | 22 | -28 | | FU 09 - 01 | -30 | -42 | -50 | -55 | -26 | 29 | [2] Domestic LU | Type | 2025/08/12 | 2025/08/13 | 2025/08/14 | 2025/08/15 | 2025/08/18 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | LU 01 | 3457 | 3430 | 3417 | 3420 | 3426 | 6 | | LU 05 | 3417 | 3394 | 3390 | 3395 | 3391 | -4 | | LU 09 | 3489 | 3442 | 3429 | 3423 | 3477 | 54 | | LU 01 - 05 | 40 | 36 | 27 | 25 | 35 | 10 | | LU 05 - 09 | -72 | -48 | -39 | -28 | -86 | -58 | | LU 09 - 01 | 32 | 12 | 12 | 3 | 51 | 48 | [3]

| | | --- | | All ron been the | | control a station and successful parts and a province and a province and a province and a proven | | | | 燃料油早报 | | --- | | 研究中心能化团队 2025/08/06 | | --- | | 燃 料 油 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 鹿特丹3.5% HSF | 鹿特丹0.5% VLS | 鹿特丹HSFO-Br | 鹿特丹10ppm G | 鹿特丹VLSFO-G | LGO-Brent M1 | 鹿特丹VLSFO-H | | | O掉期 M1 | FO掉期 M1 | ent M1 | asoil掉期 M1 | O M1 | | SFO M1 | | 2025/07/30 | 434.53 | 487.75 | -3.60 | 684.88 | -197.13 | 20.92 | 53.22 | | 2025/07 ...

Report Information - Report Date: June 23, 2025 [2] - Report Team: Research Center Energy and Chemicals Team [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - This week, high-sulfur cracking fluctuated, crude oil prices rose significantly, Iran accounted for a large proportion of high-sulfur supply, and it performed well in oil product profits. The 380-month spread fluctuated, the 8-9 spread was $7.5, the basis fluctuated, and there was a differentiation between near and far months of FU at home and abroad. The 07 contract dropped to around -$7 (it is expected that there will be a large amount of delivery goods), and the 09 contract fluctuated at $8. The 0.5 cracking in Singapore declined, and the month spread fluctuated [4]. - This week, land-based inventories in Singapore decreased, high-sulfur floating storage inventories increased, low-sulfur floating storage inventories increased, ARA inventories decreased, floating storage inventories fluctuated, and US inventories decreased. Saudi Arabia's shipments decreased month-on-month, and were moderately high compared to the same period. Russia's shipments were neutral. Iran and Iraq accounted for about 15%-20% of Singapore's high-sulfur imports, mainly affecting some bunkering and refinery feedstock in the Asia-Pacific region and cannot participate in physical delivery on the futures market. It is expected that Iran's shipments will decline in the future, mainly due to the impact of US sanctions. If the risk events in the Strait of Hormuz escalate, the impact will be greater. Recently, high-sulfur fuel oil is still in the peak power generation season, the overseas market is operating strongly, the near months of FU at home and abroad are under pressure, the valuation is low, and the game continues. Pay attention to the impact of supply disruptions in the far months. The domestic and overseas valuations of LU are high [4][5]. Data Summary Rotterdam Fuel Oil Swap Data | Product | Change from June 16 - 20 | | --- | --- | | Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O Swap M1 | -$16.13 | | Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO Swap M1 | -$9.53 | | Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1 | -$0.66 | | Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil Swap M1 | -$36.15 | | Rotterdam VLSFO - Gasoil M1 | +$26.62 | | LGO - Brent M1 | -$2.65 | | Rotterdam VLSFO - HSFO M1 | +$6.60 | [2] Singapore Fuel Oil Swap Data | Product | Change from June 16 - 20 | | --- | --- | | Singapore 380cst M1 | -$2.38 | | Singapore 180cst M1 | -$0.32 | | Singapore VLSFO M1 | +$1.14 | | Singapore Gasoil M1 | -$0.19 | | Singapore 380cst - Brent M1 | -$0.53 | | Singapore VLSFO - Gasoil M1 | +$2.55 | [2] Singapore Fuel Oil Spot Data | Product | Change from June 16 - 20 | | --- | --- | | FOB 380cst | -$6.20 | | FOB VLSFO | -$0.44 | | 380 Basis | -$1.95 | | High-Sulfur Domestic-International Spread | +$0.8 | | Low-Sulfur Domestic-International Spread | -$4.2 | [3] Domestic FU Data | Product | Change from June 16 - 20 | | --- | --- | | FU 01 | -2 | | FU 05 | +11 | | FU 09 | -6 | | FU 01 - 05 | -13 | | FU 05 - 09 | +17 | | FU 09 - 01 | -4 | [3] Domestic LU Data | Product | Change from June 16 - 20 | | --- | --- | | LU 01 | -21 | | LU 05 | +13 | | LU 09 | -31 | | LU 01 - 05 | -34 | | LU 05 - 09 | +44 | | LU 09 - 01 | -10 | [4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the high - sulfur cracking was volatile. Crude oil prices rose significantly. High - sulfur oil with a large proportion of Iranian supply performed well in oil product profits. The 380 - month spread was volatile, the 7 - 8 spread was $11.5, the basis strengthened, and the FU internal and external near - and far - month contracts were differentiated. The Singapore 0.5 cracking declined, the month spread strengthened month - on - month, and the basis strengthened. Singapore's on - shore inventory continued to accumulate, high - sulfur floating storage accumulated, low - sulfur floating storage fluctuated at a low level, ARA slightly reduced inventory, floating storage inventory fluctuated, Fujairah's on - shore inventory accumulated, and floating storage increased significantly. Saudi Arabia's shipments increased significantly, and Russia's shipments decreased month - on - month. It is expected that Iran's shipments will decline in the future due to US sanctions. High - sulfur oil is still in the peak power - generation season, the near - month contracts of FU are under pressure, the valuation is low, and the game continues. The subsequent focus is on Middle - East shipments, and the large downward drive inside and outside has decreased. LU production increased month - on - month [4][5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Rotterdam Fuel Oil Data - From June 12 to June 18, 2025, the price of Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O swap M1 changed by -$0.69, Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO swap M1 changed by -$3.04, Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1 changed by $0.15, Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil swap M1 changed by $2.86, Rotterdam VLSFO - GO M1 changed by -$5.90, LGO - Brent M1 changed by -$0.02, and Rotterdam VLSFO - HSFO M1 changed by -$2.35 [2] Singapore Fuel Oil Data Swap Data - From June 12 to June 18, 2025, the price of Singapore 380cst M1 changed by $3.70, Singapore 180cst M1 changed by $3.47, Singapore VLSFO M1 changed by $8.86, Singapore GO M1 changed by $2.67, Singapore 380cst - Brent M1 changed by -$1.17, and Singapore VLSFO - GO M1 changed by -$10.90 [2] Spot Data - From June 12 to June 18, 2025, the FOB 380cst price in Singapore changed by $1.91, FOB VLSFO changed by $9.11, the 380 basis changed by -$0.48, the high - sulfur internal - external spread changed by -$1.3, and the low - sulfur internal - external spread changed by $1.4 [3] Domestic FU Data - From June 12 to June 18, 2025, FU 01 changed by 91, FU 05 changed by 80, FU 09 changed by 86, FU 01 - 05 changed by 11, FU 05 - 09 changed by -6, and FU 09 - 01 changed by -5 [3] Domestic LU Data - From June 12 to June 18, 2025, LU 01 changed by 90, LU 05 changed by -44, LU 09 changed by 124, LU 01 - 05 changed by 134, LU 05 - 09 changed by -168, and LU 09 - 01 changed by 34 [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the high-sulfur crack strengthened, the 380 near end ran strongly, the monthly spread strengthened again, and the basis fluctuated. The low-sulfur crack oscillated at a high level, the near end of the monthly spread strengthened, and the basis continued to strengthen. This week, Singapore's onshore inventory continued to decline, ARA ports' inventory decreased, and the US residual oil inventory increased significantly. The floating storage of high-sulfur fuel oil in Singapore decreased, resulting in an overall inventory decline. The floating storage in the Middle East oscillated at a high level, and Saudi Arabia's exports were neutral year-on-year. The floating storage in Fujairah fluctuated, and the floating storage in Europe decreased. Recently, the low-sulfur fuel oil has strengthened. Attention should be paid to the subsequent realization of supply increments and the change in the low-sulfur exports of the Dangote refinery. The high-sulfur crack is running strongly, with profits higher than the historical average. This year, affected by the consumption tax deduction and tariff adjustment in China, the feedstock demand of fuel oil refineries has dropped significantly. The marine fuel demand is expected to be weaker year-on-year due to tariff impacts. In the short term, the marine fuel market has become prosperous due to rush shipments. In the future, attention should be paid to the procurement demand for power generation and the opportunity for the high-sulfur crack to decline in the medium term [3][4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Rotterdam Fuel Oil Swap Prices - From May 12 - 16, 2025, the prices of Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O swap M1 increased by 3.94, Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO swap M1 increased by 4.70, Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1 decreased by 0.11, Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil swap M1 decreased by 3.38, Rotterdam VLSFO - Gasoil M1 increased by 8.08, LGO - Brent M1 decreased by 1.28, and Rotterdam VLSFO - HSFO M1 increased by 0.76 [1] Singapore Fuel Oil Swap Prices - From May 12 - 16, 2025, the prices of Singapore 380cst M1 increased by 3.60, Singapore 180cst M1 increased by 3.00, Singapore VLSFO M1 increased by 0.17, Singapore Gasoil M1 decreased by 0.11, Singapore 380cst - Brent M1 increased by 0.48, and Singapore VLSFO - Gasoil M1 increased by 0.98 [1][8] Singapore Fuel Oil Spot Prices - From May 12 - 16, 2025, the FOB 380cst price increased by 6.42, the FOB VLSFO price decreased by 2.75, the 380 basis increased by 0.70, the high - sulfur domestic - foreign price difference decreased by 1.2, and the low - sulfur domestic - foreign price difference decreased by 2.8 [2] Domestic FU Prices - From May 12 - 16, 2025, the price of FU 01 decreased by 1, FU 05 decreased by 5, FU 09 increased by 6, FU 01 - 05 increased by 4, FU 05 - 09 decreased by 11, and FU 09 - 01 increased by 7 [2] Domestic LU Prices - From May 12 - 16, 2025, the price of LU 01 decreased by 10, LU 05 decreased by 7, LU 09 decreased by 18, LU 01 - 05 decreased by 3, LU 05 - 09 increased by 11, and LU 09 - 01 decreased by 8 [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - During the holiday, the high - sulfur cracking in Singapore strengthened, the monthly spread strengthened, the EW strengthened, and the basis weakened. The low - sulfur cracking strengthened, the basis strengthened, and the high - low sulfur price spread showed a volatile trend [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Data Rotterdam Fuel Oil Data | Product | Initial Value (2025/04/25) | Final Value (2025/04/30) | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O Swap M1 | 409.51 | 394.65 | -14.03 [1] | | Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO Swap M1 | 441.52 | 422.85 | -18.67 [1] | | Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1 | -1.11 | -0.52 | 0.59 [1] | | Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil Swap M1 | 603.68 | 580.80 | -22.88 [1] | | Rotterdam VLSFO - Gasoil M1 | -162.16 | -157.95 | 4.21 [1] | | LGO - Brent M1 | 16.49 | 18.60 | 2.11 [1] | | Rotterdam VLSFO - HSFO M1 | 32.01 | 28.20 | -3.81 [1] | Singapore Fuel Oil Futures Data | Product | Initial Value (2025/04/25) | Final Value (2025/05/06) | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Singapore 380cst M1 | 425.73 | 395.23 | -30.5 [1] | | Singapore 180cst M1 | 439.85 | 406.48 | -33.37 [1] | | Singapore VLSFO M1 | 482.08 | 461.63 | -20.45 [1] | | Singapore Gasoil M1 | 81.74 | 76.55 | -5.19 [1] | | Singapore 380cst - Brent M1 | 1.36 | 1.19 | -0.17 [1] | | Singapore VLSFO - Gasoil M1 | -122.80 | -104.84 | 17.96 [1] | Singapore Fuel Oil Spot Data | Product | Initial Value (2025/04/25) | Final Value (2025/05/06) | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FOB 380cst | 426.37 | 395.61 | -30.76 [2] | | FOB VLSFO | 487.09 | 473.66 | -13.43 [2] | | 380 Basis | 2.15 | -1.80 | -3.95 [2] | | High - Sulfur Domestic - Foreign Spread | 9.3 | 10.0 | 0.7 [2] | | Low - Sulfur Domestic - Foreign Spread | 4.0 | 6.8 | 2.8 [2] | Domestic FU Data | Product | Initial Value (2025/04/25) | Final Value (2025/05/06) | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FU 01 | 2745 | 2572 | -173 [2] | | FU 05 | 3051 | 2555 | -496 [2] | | FU 09 | 2878 | 2696 | -182 [2] | | FU 01 - 05 | -306 | 17 | 323 [2] | | FU 05 - 09 | 173 | -141 | -314 [2] | | FU 09 - 01 | 133 | 124 | -9 [2] | Domestic LU Data | Product | Initial Value (2025/04/25) | Final Value (2025/05/06) | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | LU 01 | 3374 | 3218 | -156 [3] | | LU 05 | 3663 | 3247 | -416 [3] | | LU 09 | 3409 | 3268 | -141 [3] | | LU 01 - 05 | -289 | -29 | 260 [3] | | LU 05 - 09 | 254 | -21 | -275 [3] | | LU 09 - 01 | 35 | 50 | 15 [3] |