燃料油日报 | 2025-08-22 盘面跟随原油小幅反弹，短期不确定性仍存 市场分析 上期所燃料油期货主力合约日盘收涨1.15%，报2732元/吨；INE低硫燃料油期货主力合约日盘收涨1.19%，报3483 元/吨。 在经历连续下跌后，原油价格出现企稳反弹迹象，并带动FU、LU盘面小幅上涨。短期需要关注俄美乌之间会谈的 进展，美国对俄罗斯制裁的态度变化将影响市场情绪，带来额外价格波动。如果没有超预期的宏观与地缘事件， 中期油市下行压力仍存。 就燃料油自身基本面而言，高硫油基本面与市场结构依然偏弱，短期压力有限。但未来随着夏季结束，中东当地 需求回落，叠加欧佩克增产趋势，中东燃料油发货可能还有增长空间，高硫燃料油市场面临进一步转松的预期。 但如果裂解价差调整充分，吸引炼厂端需求显著改善，市场结构有望企稳并再度走强。 低硫燃料油方面，当前市场压力有限，但整体并无短缺预期。国产量持续处于低位，但海外供应已有所回升，外 盘近期呈现边际转弱态势。中期视角下，由于低硫燃料油剩余产能较为充裕，一旦裂解利润适宜将吸引供应释放， 且航运业碳中和趋势将导致低硫燃料油市场份额被逐步替代，市场上方阻力较大。 | 图1：新加坡高硫3 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Chlor - alkali Industry - **Caustic Soda**: The caustic soda futures market strengthened, but the supply is expected to increase with more devices resuming and fewer maintenance plans. The rebound height is limited, and the 01 contract is expected to fluctuate between 2500 - 2700. It is recommended to wait and see [2]. - **PVC**: The supply of PVC is under pressure due to new capacity releases, while the downstream demand shows no sign of improvement. The industry is in the off - season, and it is recommended to take a bearish view [2]. Crude Oil Industry - The overnight oil price rebounded, driven by short - term supply - demand factors such as a large drop in US EIA inventory and strong terminal demand. However, there is still short - term supply pressure due to the increase in Cushing inventory and OPEC + production. It is recommended to wait and see on the long - short side, and consider expanding the 10 - 11/12 month spread on the inter - month side [5]. Methanol Industry - The methanol market has high port inventory due to large imports. The demand is differentiated, with traditional sectors weak and MTO profit improving. The 09 contract has significant inventory accumulation, while the 01 contract is supported by seasonal factors and Iranian gas - limit expectations [9][11][12]. Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry - **Pure Benzene**: The short - term price has some support due to expected improvement in supply - demand and lower port arrivals in August, but the medium - term supply is sufficient, and the rebound drive is limited. - **Styrene**: The short - term supply is high, but the demand has improved with the increase in downstream 3S load and export expectations. The price has support at the low level, but the rebound space is limited [16]. Urea Industry - The urea price fluctuated, mainly driven by export sentiment and inventory pressure. The fundamentals have limited changes, with increased daily production and weak agricultural demand. The market is expected to be volatile [19]. Polyester Industry Chain - **PX**: The supply is expected to increase as some domestic PX plants restart. The short - term price has support, and it is recommended to trade it in the range of 6600 - 6900 and expand the PX - SC spread [50]. - **PTA**: The short - term supply - demand has improved, but the medium - term is under pressure. It is recommended to trade it in the range of 4600 - 4800 and do reverse arbitrage on TA1 - 5 [50]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The supply and demand are neutral to positive in the short - term, and it is expected to be volatile and strong. It is recommended to trade the EG01 contract in the range of 4350 - 4550 [50]. - **Short - fiber**: The price has some support due to the approaching peak season, but the rebound drive is limited. It is recommended to pay attention to the pressure above 6500 for the PF10 contract [50]. - **Bottle Chip**: The processing fee has support, and the absolute price follows the cost. It is recommended to go long on the processing fee at low levels [50]. Polyolefin Industry - The PP/PE market shows a pattern of both supply and demand increasing, with inventory depletion. The supply pressure is easing, and demand is showing signs of recovery. It is recommended to hold the LP 01 contract as the market fluctuates in the short - term [54]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Chlor - alkali Industry - **Price and Spread**: The prices of caustic soda and PVC showed different trends. The export profit of caustic soda decreased, while the PVC export profit increased [2]. - **Supply**: The caustic soda industry's operating rate decreased slightly, while the PVC total operating rate increased [2]. - **Demand**: The downstream operating rates of caustic soda and PVC showed some improvement [2]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of caustic soda and PVC showed different trends, with an increase in some and a decrease in others [2]. Crude Oil Industry - **Price and Spread**: Brent, WTI, and SC prices changed, and the spreads between different contracts and varieties also changed [5]. - **Supply - Demand**: The US EIA inventory decreased significantly, but Cushing inventory increased, and OPEC + production increased [5]. Methanol Industry - **Price and Spread**: The methanol futures and spot prices increased, and the spreads between different contracts and regions also changed [9]. - **Inventory**: The methanol enterprise, port, and social inventories all increased [10]. - **Operating Rate**: The upstream domestic operating rate decreased slightly, while the overseas operating rate increased slightly. The downstream MTO operating rate increased [11]. Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry - **Price and Spread**: The prices of pure benzene, styrene, and their raw materials changed, and the spreads between different varieties also changed [16]. - **Inventory**: The pure benzene inventory in Jiangsu ports decreased slightly, while the styrene inventory increased [16]. - **Operating Rate**: The operating rates of pure benzene, styrene, and their downstream products showed different trends [16]. Urea Industry - **Price and Spread**: The urea futures and spot prices changed, and the spreads between different contracts and varieties also changed [19]. - **Supply - Demand**: The domestic urea daily production decreased slightly, and the inventory in some areas changed [19]. - **Position and Volume**: The long and short positions of the top 20 increased, and the trading volume increased significantly [19]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Price and Spread**: The prices of raw materials such as crude oil, PX, and downstream polyester products changed, and the spreads between different varieties also changed [50]. - **Operating Rate**: The operating rates of PX, PTA, and downstream polyester products showed different trends [50]. - **Inventory**: The MEG port inventory decreased, and the PTA inventory situation was also mentioned [50]. Polyolefin Industry - **Price and Spread**: The prices of LLDPE and PP futures and spot changed, and the spreads between different contracts and regions also changed [54]. - **Operating Rate**: The operating rates of PE and PP plants and their downstream industries showed different trends [54]. - **Inventory**: The PE and PP enterprise and social inventories showed different trends [54].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - High-sulfur fuel oil: Oscillating [3] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Oscillating [3] - Cross-variety: None [3] - Cross-period: None [3] - Spot-futures: None [3] - Options: None [3] 2. Core Views - The night session of the main contract of the Shanghai Futures Exchange's fuel oil futures closed up 0.07% at 2,703 yuan per ton, and the night session of the main contract of INE low-sulfur fuel oil futures closed up 0.03% at 3,443 yuan per ton [1] - Crude oil prices have shown a volatile downward trend recently, and the cost-side guidance for FU and LU is bearish. The medium-term balance sheet of the oil market is expected to have an oversupply situation, but in the short term, attention should be paid to the progress of talks between Russia, the US, and Ukraine. The change in the US attitude towards sanctions on Russia will affect market sentiment and bring additional price fluctuations [1] - The current fundamentals and market structure of fuel oil are still weak. The supply at the spot end is relatively abundant, the inventory level is high, and there are few bright spots on the demand side except for the peak-season effect of power plants. The market lacks upward driving force [1] - The shipping volume of high-sulfur fuel oil in the Middle East has been increasing month by month, reaching a high of 3.51 million tons in July. According to current shipping schedule data, the shipping volume in August has declined, currently estimated at 2.65 million tons (with upward revision potential in the second half of the month). In the future, as summer ends, local demand in the Middle East will decline, and coupled with the OPEC production increase trend, the high-sulfur fuel oil market is expected to further loosen. However, if the crack spread is adjusted sufficiently to attract a significant improvement in refinery demand, the market structure is expected to stabilize and strengthen again [1] - The current market pressure of low-sulfur fuel oil is limited, but there is no overall shortage expectation. Domestic production has been at a low level, but overseas supply has rebounded, and the external market has shown a marginal weakening trend recently. From a medium-term perspective, since the remaining production capacity of low-sulfur fuel oil is relatively abundant, once the crack profit is appropriate, it will attract supply release. Moreover, the carbon-neutral trend in the shipping industry will gradually replace the market share of low-sulfur fuel oil, and there is significant resistance above the market [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - The night session of the main contract of the Shanghai Futures Exchange's fuel oil futures closed up 0.07% at 2,703 yuan per ton, and the night session of the main contract of INE low-sulfur fuel oil futures closed up 0.03% at 3,443 yuan per ton [1] - Crude oil prices have shown a volatile downward trend recently, and the cost-side guidance for FU and LU is bearish. The medium-term balance sheet of the oil market is expected to have an oversupply situation, but in the short term, attention should be paid to the progress of talks between Russia, the US, and Ukraine. The change in the US attitude towards sanctions on Russia will affect market sentiment and bring additional price fluctuations [1] - The current fundamentals and market structure of fuel oil are still weak. The supply at the spot end is relatively abundant, the inventory level is high, and there are few bright spots on the demand side except for the peak-season effect of power plants. The market lacks upward driving force [1] - The shipping volume of high-sulfur fuel oil in the Middle East has been increasing month by month, reaching a high of 3.51 million tons in July. According to current shipping schedule data, the shipping volume in August has declined, currently estimated at 2.65 million tons (with upward revision potential in the second half of the month). In the future, as summer ends, local demand in the Middle East will decline, and coupled with the OPEC production increase trend, the high-sulfur fuel oil market is expected to further loosen. However, if the crack spread is adjusted sufficiently to attract a significant improvement in refinery demand, the market structure is expected to stabilize and strengthen again [1] - The current market pressure of low-sulfur fuel oil is limited, but there is no overall shortage expectation. Domestic production has been at a low level, but overseas supply has rebounded, and the external market has shown a marginal weakening trend recently. From a medium-term perspective, since the remaining production capacity of low-sulfur fuel oil is relatively abundant, once the crack profit is appropriate, it will attract supply release. Moreover, the carbon-neutral trend in the shipping industry will gradually replace the market share of low-sulfur fuel oil, and there is significant resistance above the market [2] Strategy - High-sulfur fuel oil: Oscillating [3] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Oscillating [3] - Cross-variety: None [3] - Cross-period: None [3] - Spot-futures: None [3] - Options: None [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - This week, the cracking spread of Singapore 380cst high-sulfur fuel oil rebounded and then weakened, the near-month spread oscillated, and the EW spread oscillated. The 9-10 spread weakened to $3.5/ton, the basis oscillated at a low level (-$4), and the FU01 internal and external spread slightly weakened to -$0.8. The 0.5 cracking spread in Singapore oscillated and weakened, the 9-10 spread weakened to $2.75/ton, and the LU11 internal and external spread oscillated at $9. [4][5] - This week, inventories on land in Singapore decreased, but they were still not the highest in the same period of history. Floating storage decreased significantly on a month-on-month basis. Saudi Arabia's shipments decreased significantly, and arrivals this week oscillated. Shipments from the UAE rebounded on a month-on-month basis, and net exports increased significantly. Land inventories in Fujairah in the Middle East decreased, while floating storage inventories of high-sulfur and low-sulfur fuel oil increased significantly. ARA residue inventories increased, and residue inventories in the United States decreased, resulting in a large inventory contradiction. [5] - The divergence between the East and West of high-sulfur fuel oil continued. In the heavy crude oil pattern, the cracking spread of Singapore 380cst was the weakest, and the premium of heavy crude oil was the strongest. It is expected to return in both directions in the future. This week, LU remained weak. The basis of the external MF0.5 weakened again and then oscillated. LU quotas were issued, and the internal and external spreads oscillated. In the short term, pay attention to the opportunity for the high-sulfur 380 EW spread to widen. Fundamentally, the supply of high-sulfur fuel oil is expected to increase, and the supply-demand pattern will weaken. [5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Rotterdam Fuel Oil Swap Data - From August 14th to August 20th, 2025, the prices of Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil swap M1, Rotterdam 3.5% HSFO swap M1, Rotterdam 0.5% VLSFO swap M1, etc. showed certain fluctuations. For example, the price of Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil swap M1 changed from $631.89 to $646.80, with a change of $9.12. [2] Singapore Fuel Oil Data - In the Singapore market, from August 14th to August 20th, 2025, the prices of Singapore 380cst, Singapore 180cst, Singapore VLSFO, etc. also fluctuated. For example, the price of Singapore 380cst changed from $391.90 to $389.37, with a change of -$2.93. The basis and internal and external spreads of Singapore fuel oil also changed. [2][3] Domestic Fuel Oil Data - In the domestic market, from August 14th to August 20th, 2025, the prices of FU (such as FU 01, FU 05, FU 09) and LU (such as LU 01, LU 05, LU 09) futures contracts and their spreads changed. For example, the price of FU 01 changed from 2750 to 2719, with a change of -6. [3][4]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - This week, the high - sulfur cracking of Singapore 380cst rebounded, the near - month spread rebounded, and the EW spread continued to rebound. The 9 - 10 spread rebounded to $5.5/ton, the basis oscillated at a low level (-$5), and the FU01 internal - external spread strengthened slightly to $2.5. [2] - The 0.5 cracking of Singapore oscillated and continued to weaken, the 9 - 10 spread rebounded slightly to $3.75/ton, and the LU11 internal - external spread oscillated around $8. [2] - This week, Singapore's on - shore inventory increased significantly, reaching the highest level in the same period of history. Floating storage increased month - on - month, Saudi Arabia's shipments were at a historical high in the same period, the arrival volume rebounded this week, and the shipments from the UAE rebounded significantly month - on - month, with a large increase in net exports. [3] - The divergence between the East and the West of high - sulfur fuel oil continued. The current price difference has triggered changes in logistics. In the heavy - quality pattern, the cracking of Singapore 380cst is the weakest, and the premium of heavy - quality crude oil is the strongest. A two - way regression is expected in the future. [3] - The weakening of LU this week was realized, the spot price of the external MF0.5 weakened slightly, and the valuation was realized. Attention should be paid to the subsequent release of LU quotas. [3] - Pay attention to the opportunity of the widening of the high - sulfur 380 EW spread, and exit the short - term short allocation of LU. [3] 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Fuel Oil Price Data - **Rotterdam Fuel Oil**: From August 8th to 14th, 2025, the price of Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O swap M1 changed by 3.36, Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO swap M1 changed by 5.58, Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1 changed by - 0.67, etc. [1] - **Singapore Fuel Oil Swap**: During the same period, the price of Singapore 380cst M1 changed, and other related swap prices also had corresponding changes. For example, Singapore 380cst M1 price changed from 407.04 on August 8th to 394.13 on August 14th. [1] - **Singapore Fuel Oil Spot**: From August 8th to 14th, the FOB 380cst price changed by - 1.32, FOB VLSFO changed by 0.91, etc. [2] - **Domestic FU**: The prices of FU 01, FU 05, and FU 09 all decreased from August 8th to 14th, with changes of - 22, - 15, and - 30 respectively. [2] - **Domestic LU**: The prices of LU 01, LU 05, and LU 09 also had certain changes, with LU 01 and LU 09 changing by - 13, and LU 05 changing by - 4. [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the high - sulfur cracking of Singapore 380cst rebounded, the near - month spread rebounded, and the EW spread continued to rebound. The 9 - 10 spread rebounded to $5.5/ton, the basis oscillated at a low level (-$5), and the FU01 internal - external spread strengthened slightly to $2.5. The 0.5 cracking of Singapore oscillated and continued to weaken, the 9 - 10 spread rebounded slightly to $3.75/ton, and the LU11 internal - external spread oscillated around $8. [3][4] - This week, Singapore's on - land inventory increased significantly, reaching the highest level in the same period of history. Floating storage increased month - on - month. Saudi Arabia's shipments were at a historical high in the same period, arrivals rebounded this week, UAE's shipments rebounded significantly month - on - month, and net exports increased significantly. [4] - The divergence between the East and the West of high - sulfur fuel oil continued. The current price difference has triggered logistics changes. In the heavy - quality pattern, the cracking of Singapore 380cst is the weakest, and the premium of heavy - quality crude oil is the strongest. It is expected to return in both directions later. [4] - This week, the weakening of LU was realized, the spot price of the external MF0.5 weakened slightly, and the valuation was realized. Pay attention to the subsequent release of LU quotas. Pay attention to the opportunity of the widening of the high - sulfur 380 EW spread, and exit the short - term short allocation of LU. [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Data Rotterdam Fuel Oil Swap Data - From August 6th to 12th, 2025, the price of Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O swap M1 decreased from $411.10 to $394.34, a decrease of $6.98; the price of Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO swap M1 decreased from $464.89 to $451.49, a decrease of $3.11. [1] Singapore Fuel Oil Swap Data - From August 6th to 12th, 2025, the price of Singapore 380cst M1 decreased from $413.20 to $395.15, a decrease of $2.51; the price of Singapore VLSFO M1 decreased from $494.45 to $478.30, a decrease of $3.32. [1][6] Singapore Fuel Oil Spot Data - From August 6th to 12th, 2025, the FOB price of 380cst increased from $406.83 to $396.64, an increase of $4.91; the FOB price of VLSFO increased from $495.11 to $483.55, an increase of $1.88. [2] Domestic FU Data - From August 6th to 12th, 2025, the price of FU 01 increased from 2859 to 2800, an increase of 19; the price of FU 05 increased from 2818 to 2770, an increase of 23. [2] Domestic LU Data - From August 6th to 12th, 2025, the price of LU 01 increased from 3496 to 3457, an increase of 39; the price of LU 05 increased from 3437 to 3417, an increase of 25. [3]

燃料油日报 | 2025-08-08 富查伊拉燃料油库存增加 市场分析 上期所燃料油期货主力合约日盘收涨0.25%，报2826元/吨；INE低硫燃料油期货主力合约日盘收跌0.25%，报3526 元/吨。 原油价格回调后近日呈现弱势震荡走势，对于FU、LU价格短期方向指引有限，中期平衡表转松的预期则对能源板 块有潜在压制。 就高硫燃料油市场而言，市场结构连续调整后，短期矛盾相对有限。目前来看，现货端供应相对充裕，需求端则 缺乏增长动力，发电端需求虽然受到旺季提振，但缺乏超出季节性的驱动。参考普式数据，富查伊拉燃料油库存 本周录得965.6万桶，环比前一周增加21.67%。往前看，在原油轻质化、炼厂装置升级的大趋势下，结构性支撑仍 存，未来如果裂解价差调整充分，吸引炼厂端需求大幅回升，可以关注市场结构再度走强的机会。 低硫燃料油方面，目前市场压力有限，供应增量仍受到抑制，国产量维持低位，保税区供应偏紧的状况尚未完全 缓解。中期来看，由于低硫燃料油剩余产能较为充裕，一旦裂解利润适宜将吸引供应释放，且航运业碳中和趋势 将导致低硫燃料油市场份额被逐步替代，市场前景仍不容乐观。 策略 高硫方面：震荡 低硫方面：震荡 跨品 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - This week, the cracking spread of Singapore 380cst high - sulfur fuel oil declined, the near - month spread was weak and at a historical low, and the EW spread rebounded on Friday. The 9 - 10 spread rebounded slightly to $3.75/ton, the basis fluctuated at a low level, and the FU01 internal - external spread was 0. The 0.5 cracking spread of Singapore fuel oil fluctuated downward, the 9 - 10 spread rebounded slightly to $3.25/ton, the LU11 internal - external spread fluctuated around $10, and the 09 internal - external spread continued to weaken. Singapore's on - land and floating storage inventories increased this week, pressuring the near - month spread. Saudi Arabia's shipments were at a historical high, with high net exports, while UAE's shipments decreased significantly month - on - month. Egypt's net imports decreased slightly month - on - month but remained at a seasonal high. The east - west divergence of high - sulfur fuel oil continued, and the current price difference triggered logistics changes. In the heavy - quality pattern, the 380cst cracking spread was the weakest, and the heavy - quality crude oil premium was the strongest, with a predicted two - way regression in the future. This week, LU weakened as expected, the external MF0.5 followed gasoline and diesel to weaken slightly, the basis fluctuated, and the LU internal - external spread weakened. The Singapore hi - 5 spread declined slightly, with no clear direction recently [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Rotterdam Fuel Oil - From August 1st to 7th, 2025, the prices of Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O swap M1 decreased from 414.34 to 404.69, a change of - 6.41; Rotterdam 0.5% VLSFO swap M1 decreased from 469.52 to 455.81, a change of - 9.08; Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1 increased from - 3.46 to - 2.15, a change of 0.63; Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil swap M1 decreased from 652.93 to 644.50, a change of - 10.11; Rotterdam VLSFO - Gasoil M1 increased from - 183.41 to - 188.69, a change of 1.03; LGO - Brent M1 decreased from 20.50 to 22.56, a change of - 0.85; Rotterdam VLSFO - HSFO M1 decreased from 55.18 to 51.12, a change of - 2.67 [1] Singapore Fuel Oil - For Singapore fuel oil swaps, from August 1st to 7th, 2025, Singapore 380cst M1 decreased from 420.12 to 406.75, a change of - 6.45; Singapore 180cst M1 decreased from 431.52 to 418.46, a change of - 4.74; Singapore VLSFO M1 decreased from 501.95 to 484.37, a change of - 10.08; Singapore Gasoil M1 decreased from 89.91 to 85.03, a change of - 0.80; Singapore 380cst - Brent M1 increased from - 4.72 to - 1.82, a change of 0.91; Singapore VLSFO - Gasoil M1 decreased from - 163.38 to - 144.85, a change of - 4.16 [1][6] Singapore Fuel Oil Spot - From August 1st to 7th, 2025, FOB 380cst decreased from 412.35 to 402.93, a change of - 3.90; FOB VLSFO decreased from 504.71 to 488.15, a change of - 6.96; 380 - basis decreased from - 5.95 to - 5.35, a change of - 0.30; high - sulfur internal - external spread increased from 0.0 to 2.6, a change of 1.3; low - sulfur internal - external spread increased from 9.4 to 9.9, a change of 1.4 [2] Domestic FU - From August 1st to 7th, 2025, FU 01 decreased from 2946 to 2838, a change of - 21; FU 05 decreased from 2906 to 2799, a change of - 19; FU 09 decreased from 2916 to 2826, a change of - 9; FU 01 - 05 decreased from 40 to 39, a change of - 2; FU 05 - 09 decreased from - 10 to - 27, a change of - 10; FU 09 - 01 increased from - 30 to - 12, a change of 12 [2] Domestic LU - From August 1st to 7th, 2025, LU 01 decreased from 3607 to 3463, a change of - 33; LU 05 decreased from 3553 to 3416, a change of - 21; LU 09 decreased from 3625 to 3510, a change of - 35; LU 01 - 05 decreased from 54 to 47, a change of - 12; LU 05 - 09 increased from - 72 to - 94, a change of 14; LU 09 - 01 decreased from 18 to 47, a change of - 2 [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives an "oscillation" rating for LPG, indicating that the expected price fluctuation is within plus or minus one standard deviation [4]. Core View of the Report - The supply pressure of LPG continues, and the cracking spread is running weakly. The internal market commodity sentiment has weakened, and the decline in coal prices has dragged down olefin prices, causing PG to follow suit. The impact of oil prices on the PG market has weakened recently. The pressure of associated gas in the US and the Middle East continues to suppress the overseas market. Although the US propane production has declined slightly, it remains at a high level. The operating rate of domestic refineries has slightly decreased, while the operating rate of major refineries remains at a high level for the same period. The supply pressure is difficult to refute. Overall, the current supply of PG is relatively loose. The price is expected to oscillate, and the cracking spread will run weakly [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs LPG: Weekly View - **Supply**: Domestic major refineries have an operating rate of 81.55% (a month - on - month increase of 0.34%), independent refineries have an operating rate of 56.85% (a month - on - month decrease of 0.35%), the commercial volume of LPG is 52.65 tons (a 0.3% increase), the commercial volume of civil gas is 20.98 tons (a 0.3% decrease), and the arrival volume of LPG is 81 tons (a 65.3% increase). Overseas, the US propane production is 2822 thousand barrels per day (a 1.7% decrease) [4]. - **Demand**: In the domestic market, the price of gasoline in Shandong is 7799 yuan/ton (a 0.3% decrease), the cracking spread of Shandong gasoline against Brent is 10.16 dollars/barrel (a 22.3% decrease). The operating rate of MTBE is 65.89% (a 4.6% decrease), the operating rate of alkylated oil is 46.5614% (a 0.4% increase), and the operating rate of PDH plants is 72.63% (a 0.7% decrease). Overseas, the US propane exports this week are 1629 thousand barrels per day (a 22.2% decrease), and the inventory is 83477 thousand barrels (a 1.4% increase) [4]. - **Valuation**: The price of civil gas in Shandong is 4550 yuan/ton (a 1.5% decrease), and the price of ether - after C4 in Shandong is 4580 yuan/ton (a 3.4% decrease). Brent is at 71.27 dollars/barrel (a 4.1% increase), the CP price is 534.31 dollars/ton (a 1.9% increase), the MB price is 400.7 dollars/ton (a 2.6% increase), and the FEI price is 547.31 dollars/ton (a 2.8% increase) [4]. - **Basis**: The main basis of civil gas in Shandong is 340 yuan/ton (a 3% decrease) [4]. - **Inventory**: The refinery inventory is 18.08 tons (a 1.9% decrease), the port inventory is 313.44 tons (a 3.1% increase), and the storage capacity utilization rate of tertiary LPG stations is 60.33% (a 0.3% decrease) [4]. LPG: Price - Volume Performance - **Futures and Paper - Futures Prices**: As of August 1, the main LPG contract is at 3965 yuan/ton, with a weekly change of - 82 yuan/ton (- 2%); the FEI first - line contract is at 547.31 dollars/ton, with a weekly change of 14.92 dollars/ton (2.8%); the CP first - line contract is at 534.31 dollars/ton, with a weekly change of 9.9 dollars/ton (1.9%); the MB first - line contract is at 379.3 dollars/ton, with a weekly change of 9.5 dollars/ton (2.6%) [8]. - **Cracking Spreads**: The first - line LPG cracking spread is - 209.1701 yuan/barrel, with a weekly change of - 21.5916 yuan/barrel (- 11.5107%). The MB propane first - line cracking spread is - 38.2 dollars/barrel, with a weekly change of - 3 dollars/barrel (- 8.4%); the CP propane first - line cracking spread is - 28.2 dollars/barrel, with a weekly change of - 2 dollars/barrel (- 7.8%); the FEI propane first - line cracking spread is - 27.2 dollars/barrel, with a weekly change of - 1.6 dollars/barrel (- 6.4%); the NWE propane first - line cracking spread is - 33.73 dollars/barrel, with a weekly change of - 2.8 dollars/barrel (- 8.9%) [8][13]. - **Other Spreads**: As of August 1, the PP - 1.2*PG main contract spread is 2340 yuan/ton, with a weekly change of - 24.6 yuan/ton (- 1%); the MOPJ naphtha and Cash Diff cracking spread is - 3.43 dollars/barrel, with a weekly change of 0.1 dollars/barrel (3.1%); the MOPJ naphtha is at 596.25 dollars/ton, and the PN spread is - 48.94 dollars/ton, with a weekly change of - 2.8 dollars/ton (- 6%). The PG - FEI first - line spread is 16.4 yuan/ton, with a weekly change of - 220.8384 yuan/ton (- 93.0746%); the PG - CP first - line spread is 110.2 yuan/ton, with a weekly change of - 184.2971 yuan/ton (- 62.5759%) [19][28]. - **Freight and Related Data**: As of July 31, the freight from the Middle East to Japan is 85 dollars/ton, with a weekly change of 0.3 dollars/ton (0.4%); the freight from the US Gulf to Flushing is 76.5 dollars/ton, with a weekly change of - 1.5 dollars/ton (- 1.9%); the freight from the US Gulf to Japan is 137.667 dollars/ton, with a weekly change of - 3.4 dollars/ton (- 2.4%). The Panama water level is 86.3 feet, with a weekly change of - 0.1 feet (- 0.1%). The number of ships waiting to pass through the Panama Neopanamax lock is 25, with a weekly increase of 3 (13.6%); the number of ships waiting to pass through the Panamax Plus lock is 41, with a weekly increase of 13 (46.4%); the total is 66, with a weekly increase of 16 (32%) [31]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of the week of August 1, the registered warehouse receipts of Chinese LPG futures are 48975 lots, with a change of 955 lots (1.9888%) from last week. In July, the delivery volume of Chinese LPG futures is 1783 lots, with a change of + 1391 lots (+ 354.85%) from last month [34]. LPG: Supply - Demand Progress - **Supply**: In the week of July 1, the commercial volume of civil gas is 20.98 tons, a decrease of 0.06 tons (- 0.29%) from last week. The commercial volume of Chinese LPG is 52.65 tons, an increase of 0.16 tons (+ 0.3%) from last week. The weekly arrival volume of LPG is 81 tons, an increase of 32 tons (+ 65.31%) from last week [40]. - **Demand**: - **MTBE**: As of August 1, the MTBE market price is 5040 yuan/ton, with a weekly change of - 35 yuan/ton (- 0.7%); the MTBE plant profit is - 94 yuan/ton, with a weekly change of 2.3 yuan/ton (2.3%); the MTBE plant operating rate is 65.89%, with a weekly change of - 3.2% (- 4.63%) [44]. - **Alkylated Oil**: As of August 1, the alkylated oil market price is 7899 yuan/ton, with a weekly change of - 37 yuan/ton (- 0.5%); the alkylated oil plant profit is - 3.5 yuan/ton, with a weekly change of - 17 yuan/ton (- 125.93%); the alkylated oil plant operating rate is 46.5614%, with a weekly change of + 0.2% (+ 0.43%) [48]. - **PDH**: As of August 1, the MTO - made propylene profit is - 737.6 yuan/ton, a change of - 157.8 yuan/ton (+ 27.22%) from last week; the naphtha - made propylene profit is - 86.6 dollars/ton, a change of - 15.2 dollars/ton (+ 21.29%) from last week; the PDH - made propylene profit is - 454.6 yuan/ton, a change of - 9.6 yuan/ton (+ 2.16%) from last week. The PDH plant operating rate is 72.63%, with a change of - 0.5% (- 0.68%) from last week [55]. - **Inventory**: - **Refinery Inventory**: As of August 1, the Chinese refinery inventory is 18.08 tons, a decrease of 0.35 tons (- 1.9%) from last week. The Shandong refinery inventory is 1.6 tons, an increase of 0.07 tons (+ 4.58%) from last week; the East China refinery inventory is 2.63 tons, a decrease of 0.39 tons (- 12.91%) from last week; the South China refinery inventory is 2.58 tons, an increase of 0.01 tons (+ 0.39%) from last week [59]. - **Port Inventory**: The port inventory remains at a high level [61]. - **Downstream Storage Capacity Utilization Rate**: The downstream storage capacity utilization rate shows differentiation but remains relatively stable overall [64]. - **US Situation**: As of July 25, the US propane inventory is 83477 thousand barrels, an increase of 1150 thousand barrels (+ 1.4%) from last week; the US propane production is 2822 thousand barrels, a decrease of 49 thousand barrels (- 1.71%) from last week; the US propane exports are 1629 thousand barrels, a decrease of 466 thousand barrels (- 22.24%) from last week; the 4 - week average of US implied demand is 875 thousand barrels per day, an increase of 130 thousand barrels per day (+ 17.45%) from last week [69]. - **Monthly Data**: In July, the monthly production of Chinese LPG is 440 tons (a year - on - year decrease of 1.7199%), and from January to July 2025, the cumulative production of Chinese LPG is 3065.2 tons (a year - on - year decrease of 2.6271%). In June, the monthly import volume of Chinese LPG is 267.4 tons (a year - on - year decrease of 21.1%), and from January to June 2025, the cumulative import volume of Chinese LPG is 1767 tons (a year - on - year increase of 1.5%). In June, the monthly export volume of Chinese LPG is 8.8 tons (a year - on - year decrease of 23.2%), and from January to June 2025, the cumulative export volume of Chinese LPG is 54.5 tons (a year - on - year increase of 5.8%). In June, the monthly apparent demand for Chinese LPG is 694.5 tons (a year - on - year decrease of 11.5%), and from January to June 2025, the cumulative apparent demand for Chinese LPG is 4337.6 tons (a year - on - year decrease of 1.2%) [71].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - High-sulfur fuel oil: Oscillation [3] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Oscillation [3] 2. Core Viewpoints - Recently, the crude oil price has weakened, driving down the unilateral prices of FU and LU. The expectation of a looser medium-term balance sheet potentially suppresses the energy sector [2]. - In the high-sulfur fuel oil market, the market structure has been weak recently, and the crack spread has significantly declined from its high. Currently, the spot supply is relatively abundant, while the demand lacks growth momentum. Egypt, which had strong demand previously, has shown signs of slower procurement. In July, Egypt's high-sulfur fuel oil arrivals were 610,000 tons, a decrease of 60,000 tons from June, and the estimated imports in August are only 260,000 tons. After increasing LNG imports, the raw material gap in power plants has been partially filled, leading to a marginal decline in the substitution demand for fuel oil. Looking forward, the structural positive factors for high-sulfur fuel oil have not completely disappeared. If the crack spread adjusts sufficiently to attract a significant rebound in refinery demand, opportunities for the market structure to strengthen again can be observed [2]. - In the low-sulfur fuel oil market, the current market pressure is limited. However, as the tight situation of overseas diesel eases, the support for the low-sulfur fuel oil market may weaken, and the supply of components is expected to increase. In the medium term, due to the relatively abundant remaining capacity of low-sulfur fuel oil, once the crack profit is appropriate, it will attract supply release. Moreover, the carbon-neutral trend in the shipping industry will gradually replace the market share of low-sulfur fuel oil, and the market outlook remains pessimistic [2]. 3. Strategy Summary - High-sulfur: Take appropriate profit on the previous short position of FU crack spread (FU-Brent or FU-SC) [3] - Low-sulfur: No specific strategy mentioned [3] - Cross-variety: Take appropriate profit on the previous short position of FU crack spread (FU-Brent or FU-SC) [3] - Cross-period: Gradually take profit on the previous FU reverse arbitrage position [3] - Spot-futures: No strategy [3] - Options: No strategy [3] 4. Market Analysis - The main contract of SHFE fuel oil futures closed down 0.94% at 2,842 yuan/ton in the daytime session, and the main contract of INE low-sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 0.78% at 3,560 yuan/ton [1]