Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of rising crude oil prices on refined oil products, highlighting the differentiated performance of gasoline and diesel margins in January, with expectations for continued divergence in February [1][12]. Group 1: International Oil Price Analysis - In January, the average WTI crude oil price increased by 4.13%, while Brent crude rose by 5.03%, driven by geopolitical tensions and supply disruptions [1]. - The outlook for February suggests a potential decline in crude oil prices, influenced by ongoing geopolitical risks and market sentiment [1][12]. Group 2: Domestic Refined Oil Price Transmission - The fluctuations in crude oil prices directly affect the domestic refining sector, impacting product prices and profit margins [2]. - In January, the gasoline market in Shandong saw a price increase of 290 CNY/ton, while the diesel market experienced a slight increase of 15 CNY/ton, despite overall price declines [4][5]. Group 3: Gasoline and Diesel Margin Analysis - The average gasoline crack spread in Shandong decreased by 16.01% to 716.14 CNY/ton, while the diesel crack spread fell significantly by 61.23% to 275.2 CNY/ton [6][8]. - The theoretical gasoline retail margin decreased by 5.17% to 1833.24 CNY/ton, whereas the diesel retail margin increased by 17.92% to 1655.86 CNY/ton [10][12]. Group 4: Future Outlook - For February, it is anticipated that gasoline margins may improve slightly, while diesel margins are expected to continue their upward trend [12][14]. - The average gasoline price in Shandong is projected to be around 7100 CNY/ton, with a trading range of 7050-7150 CNY/ton, while diesel prices are expected to be around 5650 CNY/ton [12][14].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - High - sulfur fuel oil: Short - term neutral, pay attention to the development of the Iranian situation; medium - term bearish [2] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Short - term neutral, pay attention to the development of the Iranian situation; medium - term bearish [2] - Cross - variety: No rating [2] - Cross - period: No rating [2] - Spot - futures: No rating [2] - Options: No rating [2] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market drivers are currently unclear with a mix of bullish and bearish factors. The geopolitical premium has declined, and the cost - side drive for FU and LU prices has weakened again. The overall contradiction in the fuel oil market is limited. There are resistances above and supports below the market. The Iranian situation is uncertain and may repeatedly disturb the market [1]. - For low - sulfur fuel oil, the overall contradiction and drive are limited. The increase in shipments from Kuwait and Nigeria will bring local pressure, while the high premium of gasoline and diesel will support the market [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - The main contract of SHFE fuel oil futures closed up 0.12% at 2,538 yuan/ton, and the main contract of INE low - sulfur fuel oil futures closed up 0.07% at 3,060 yuan/ton [1]. - The Iranian situation is currently under control, not affecting oil supply, and the geopolitical premium has declined, weakening the cost - side drive for FU and LU prices [1]. - The fuel oil market has a mix of bullish and bearish factors with limited overall contradictions. Short - term attention should be paid to the drag of the decline in the cracking spread in the US Gulf on the Asia - Pacific and domestic markets and the potential increase in downstream refinery demand [1]. - For low - sulfur fuel oil, the increase in shipments from Kuwait and Nigeria, especially Kuwait's high shipments in January, will bring local pressure. The high premium of gasoline and diesel will support the market [1]. Strategy - High - sulfur fuel oil: Short - term neutral, pay attention to the development of the Iranian situation; medium - term bearish [2] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Short - term neutral, pay attention to the development of the Iranian situation; medium - term bearish [2] - Cross - variety: No strategy [2] - Cross - period: No strategy [2] - Spot - futures: No strategy [2] - Options: No strategy [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the cracking of Singapore 380 strengthened, and the monthly spread rebounded significantly. The high - sulfur cracking in Europe rebounded, and the monthly spread also rebounded significantly. The high - sulfur EW oscillated at a high level. The cracking of Singapore 0.5% was at a historical low for the same period, rebounded month - on - month, the monthly spread strengthened slightly, and the basis oscillated at a low level. In terms of inventory, Singapore residue oil had a small inventory build - up, with the inventory at a historical high year - on - year, ARA residue oil had a small inventory draw - down, and Fujairah residue oil had an inventory build - up. This week, the situation in Iran affected the global heavy - oil valuation. In the short term, the driving force of high - sulfur was stronger than that of low - sulfur, the high - sulfur spot tightened, the cracking rebounded, and the short - term downside was limited, while the low - sulfur external market remained weak [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Rotterdam Fuel Oil Swap Data - From January 13 to 19, 2026, for Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O swap M1, the price changed from 338.39 to 336.42, a decrease of 4.64; for Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO swap M1, it changed from 393.07 to 385.25, a decrease of 4.33; for Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1, it changed from - 11.61 to - 10.40, a change of - 0.31; for Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil swap M1, it changed from 634.60 to 636.65, an increase of 2.45; for Rotterdam VLSFO - Gasoil M1, it changed from - 241.53 to - 251.40, a decrease of 6.78; for LGO - Brent M1, it changed from 21.98 to 23.36, an increase of 0.17; for Rotterdam VLSFO - HSFO M1, it changed from 54.68 to 48.83, a decrease of 0.31 [1] Singapore Fuel Oil Swap Data - During January 13 - 19, 2026, for Singapore 380cst M1, the price changed from 346.25 to 360.61, an increase of 3.77; for Singapore 180cst M1, it changed from 353.19 to 365.42, an increase of 2.15; for Singapore VLSFO M1, it changed from 422.84 to 429.94, an increase of 3.49; for Singapore GO M1, it changed from 81.26 to 83.40, an increase of 1.89; for Singapore 380cst - Brent M1, it changed from - 8.90 to - 6.58, a change of 0.21; for Singapore VLSFO - Gasoil M1, it changed from - 178.48 to - 187.22, a decrease of 10.50 [1] Singapore Fuel Oil Spot Data - From January 13 to 19, 2026, for FOB 380cst, the price changed from 344.30 to 359.26, an increase of 0.92; for FOB VLSFO, it changed from 424.25 to 431.00, an increase of 1.63; the 380 basis changed from - 1.80 to - 1.45, an increase of 0.20; the high - sulfur internal - external price difference changed from 13.4 to 12.6, a decrease of 1.1; the low - sulfur internal - external price difference changed from 15.8 to 15.6, an increase of 0.3 [2] Domestic FU Data - Between January 13 and 19, 2026, for FU 01, the price changed from 2451 to 2478, a change of - 7; for FU 05, it changed from 2469 to 2526, an increase of 6; for FU 09, it changed from 2467 to 2500, an increase of 2; for FU 01 - 05, it changed from - 18 to - 48, a decrease of 13; for FU 05 - 09, it changed from 2 to 26, an increase of 4; for FU 09 - 01, it changed from 16 to 22, an increase of 9 [2] Domestic LU Data - From January 13 to 19, 2026, for LU 01, the price changed from 3112 to 3136, an increase of 48; for LU 05, it changed from 3063 to 3052, an increase of 11; for LU 09, it changed from 3081 to 3073, an increase of 17; for LU 01 - 05, it changed from 49 to 84, an increase of 37; for LU 05 - 09, it changed from - 18 to - 21, a decrease of 6; for LU 09 - 01, it changed from - 31 to - 63, a decrease of 31 [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View - This week, the cracking spread of Singapore 380 strengthened, the monthly spread rebounded significantly. The high-sulfur cracking spread in Europe rebounded, and the monthly spread also rebounded significantly. The high-sulfur EW was in a high-level oscillation. The cracking spread of Singapore 0.5% was at a historical low for the same period, rebounding month-on-month. The monthly spread strengthened slightly, and the basis oscillated at a low level. In terms of inventory, Singapore's residual oil had a slight inventory build, at a historical high year-on-year, ARA's residual oil had a slight inventory draw, and Fujairah's residual oil had an inventory build. This week, the situation in Iran affected the global heavy oil valuation. In the short term, the driving force of high-sulfur was stronger than that of low-sulfur. The high-sulfur spot tightened, and the cracking spread rebounded. The short-term downside space was limited, and the low-sulfur external market remained weak [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Content Rotterdam Fuel Oil Swap Data | Type | 2026/01/12 | 2026/01/13 | 2026/01/14 | 2026/01/15 | 2026/01/16 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O swap M1 | 319.41 | 338.39 | 342.84 | 333.76 | 341.06 | 7.30 | | Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO swap M1 | 381.51 | 393.07 | 397.96 | 384.56 | 389.58 | 5.02 | | Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1 | -12.48 | -11.61 | -11.23 | -10.45 | -10.09 | 0.36 | | Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil swap M1 | 606.35 | 634.60 | 639.10 | 621.40 | 634.20 | 12.80 | | Rotterdam VLSFO - Gasoil M1 | -224.84 | -241.53 | -241.14 | -236.84 | -244.62 | -7.78 | | LGO - Brent M1 | 19.89 | 21.98 | 21.50 | 21.81 | 23.19 | 1.38 | | Rotterdam VLSFO - HSFO M1 | 62.10 | 54.68 | 55.12 | 50.80 | 48.52 | -2.28 | [1] Singapore Fuel Oil Swap Data | Type | 2026/01/12 | 2026/01/13 | 2026/01/14 | 2026/01/15 | 2026/01/16 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Singapore 380cst M1 | 338.12 | 346.25 | 360.39 | 359.16 | 356.84 | | Singapore 180cst M1 | 346.55 | 353.19 | 366.14 | 363.46 | 363.27 | | Singapore VLSFO M1 | 418.09 | 422.84 | 428.26 | 426.98 | 426.45 | | Singapore Gasoil M1 | 79.92 | 81.26 | 82.45 | 81.65 | 81.51 | | Singapore 380cst - Brent M1 | -9.22 | -8.90 | -7.37 | -7.10 | -6.79 | | Singapore VLSFO - Gasoil M1 | -173.32 | -178.48 | -181.87 | -177.23 | -176.72 | [1] Singapore Fuel Oil Spot Data | Type | 2026/01/12 | 2026/01/13 | 2026/01/14 | 2026/01/15 | 2026/01/16 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FOB 380cst | 337.29 | 344.30 | 358.10 | 358.88 | 358.34 | -0.54 | | FOB VLSFO | 417.42 | 424.25 | 431.74 | 429.02 | 429.37 | 0.35 | | 380 Basis | -1.22 | -1.80 | -1.50 | -1.45 | -1.65 | -0.20 | | High - Sulfur Domestic - Foreign Spread | 14.4 | 13.4 | 13.0 | 13.9 | 13.7 | -0.2 | | Low - Sulfur Domestic - Foreign Spread | 12.2 | 15.8 | 16.0 | 14.9 | 15.3 | 0.4 | [2] Domestic FU Data | Type | 2026/01/12 | 2026/01/13 | 2026/01/14 | 2026/01/15 | 2026/01/16 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FU 01 | 2436 | 2451 | 2513 | 2510 | 2485 | -25 | | FU 05 | 2465 | 2469 | 2578 | 2566 | 2520 | -46 | | FU 09 | 2452 | 2467 | 2546 | 2533 | 2498 | -35 | | FU 01 - 05 | -29 | -18 | -65 | -56 | -35 | 21 | | FU 05 - 09 | 13 | 2 | 32 | 33 | 22 | -11 | | FU 09 - 01 | 16 | 16 | 33 | 23 | 13 | -10 | [2] Domestic LU Data | Type | 2026/01/12 | 2026/01/13 | 2026/01/14 | 2026/01/15 | 2026/01/16 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | LU 01 | 3088 | 3112 | 3159 | 3166 | 3088 | -78 | | LU 05 | 3019 | 3063 | 3087 | 3074 | 3041 | -33 | | LU 09 | 3050 | 3081 | 3112 | 3090 | 3056 | -34 | | LU 01 - 05 | 69 | 49 | 72 | 92 | 47 | -45 | | LU 05 - 09 | -31 | -18 | -25 | -16 | -15 | 1 | | LU 09 - 01 | -38 | -31 | -47 | -76 | -32 | 44 | [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Short - term outlook: Hold [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - In the medium - term, it is likely that the asphalt valuation will decline in the second half of the year. The return of major refinery production capacity and the seasonal off - peak valuation period are expected to limit the upward space of asphalt valuation. The weak and volatile cost side of crude oil will also restrict the upward space of asphalt's unilateral price [16]. - In the short - term, due to Venezuela's ongoing production increase and the release of its maritime inventory, which will suppress asphalt prices, it is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach [17]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendations - **Market Review**: The price trend of the asphalt's main contract in recent months is presented, with supply - demand and cost factors marked at different time points [13][14]. - **Medium - term Impact Factor Assessment**: In terms of supply, imports are expected to remain low, and major refineries are expected to resume some production, which will limit the upward movement of asphalt valuation, while local refineries are expected to remain relatively sluggish in the short - to - medium - term. In terms of demand, the start - up rate of the demand side has improved slightly compared to previous years, but the overall asphalt shipment volume is lower than expected, and the overall demand is expected to be flat after the infrastructure seasonal peak. In terms of cost, the upward space of oil prices in the second half of the year is limited, and the central range of wide - range fluctuations in oil prices is expected to move down slightly [16]. - **Short - term Factor Assessment**: Supply is neutral - bearish as the heavy - traffic asphalt start - up rate is rising and overall imports remain strong; demand is bearish as the start - up rates of all sub - sectors on the demand side are weak and the downstream shipment is dull; inventory is neutral - bearish (partially priced in) as there is a problem of weak de - stocking in the overall inventory and the domestic total inventory exceeds expectations; the cost of crude oil is expected to stop falling and stabilize, entering a weak - fluctuation process [17]. 3.2 Spot and Futures Markets - **Spot Prices**: The spot price trends of heavy - traffic asphalt in Shandong, Northeast, North China, and East China regions are analyzed [20][22][24]. - **Basis Trends**: The basis trends of asphalt in Shandong and East China regions are presented [32]. - **Term Structure**: The term structure of asphalt and the price differences between different contracts are analyzed [34]. 3.3 Supply Side - **Capacity Utilization and Profits**: The capacity utilization rate of heavy - traffic asphalt and the production profit margins of Shandong asphalt are analyzed, along with the relationships between asphalt start - up, profit, and crude oil price [41][44][45]. - **Imports**: The import volume, import profit, and cumulative import volume of asphalt from different countries are presented, as well as the monthly import volume of Venezuelan oil [49][50][53]. - **Valuation Ratios**: The valuation ratios of fuel oil/asphalt and asphalt/Brent are analyzed [56]. - **Refinery Profits**: The refining profit margins of major refineries and Shandong local refineries, as well as the start - up rate and production profit margin of petroleum coke, are analyzed [59][62]. 3.4 Inventory - **Domestic Inventory**: The trends of domestic factory inventory, social inventory, total inventory, and diluted asphalt port inventory are analyzed [66][67]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The trends of asphalt warehouse receipts and the virtual - to - real ratio of the main asphalt contract are presented [70]. - **Inventory and Price**: The relationships between inventory, profit, and price are analyzed [72][74]. 3.5 Demand Side - **Enterprise Shipment Volume**: The asphalt shipment volumes of Chinese, Shandong, East China, and North China sample enterprises are analyzed [78][80][83]. - **Downstream Start - up Rates**: The start - up rates of rubber shoe materials, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membranes are analyzed [86][88][92]. - **Highway Investment**: The cumulative investment in highway construction and the monthly year - on - year and monthly values of public fiscal expenditures on transportation are analyzed, as well as the relationship between asphalt demand and transportation fiscal expenditures [93][96][100]. - **Road - related Machinery**: The monthly sales volumes and working hours of road - related machinery such as rollers and excavators are analyzed [101][105]. - **Related Consumption**: The cumulative year - on - year growth rates of fixed - asset investment in railway, road, and water conservancy industries, as well as the cumulative issuance of local government special bonds, are analyzed [108][109]. 3.6 Related Indicators - **Positions, Trading Volumes, and Price Volatility**: The trading volume, position, and 20 - day historical volatility of asphalt futures are analyzed [114][117][119]. 3.7 Industry Chain Structure Diagram - **Crude Oil Industry Chain**: The exploration and production links of the crude oil industry chain are presented [123][124]. - **Asphalt Industry Chain**: The production processes and uses of asphalt are introduced [125][127].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Before the holiday, the 380 cracking spread fluctuated, and after the holiday, it weakened slightly. The 380 monthly spread rebounded from its low but remained weak year-on-year. The high-sulfur cracking spread in Europe weakened, and the monthly spread oscillated at a low level. [3] - The 0.5% cracking spread in Singapore oscillated at a historical low, with the structure turning to Contango at a historical low and the basis oscillating at a historical low. [3] - In terms of inventory, Singapore's residue stocks increased significantly, high-sulfur floating storage decreased significantly, ARA's residue stocks increased slightly, Fujairah's residue stocks decreased, high-sulfur floating storage decreased, and EIA's residue stocks increased slightly. [4] - The conflict in Venezuela escalated over the weekend, having a short-term positive and long-term negative impact on heavy crude oil. Attention should be paid to the duration of logistics disruptions. The arrival premium of Merey crude at the end of December remained around -12. [4] - The high-sulfur spot market remained loose. Attention should be paid to the boost brought by the premium and discount of heavy raw materials recently. The low-sulfur market maintained a weak oscillation pattern. [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Rotterdam Fuel Oil Swap Data | Product | Change from 2026/01/09 - 2026/01/15 | | --- | --- | | Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O Swap M1 | -9.08 | | Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO Swap M1 | -13.40 | | Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1 | 0.78 | | Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil Swap M1 | -18.15 | | Rotterdam VLSFO - Gasoil M1 | 4.75 | | LGO - Brent M1 | 0.00 | | Rotterdam VLSFO - HSFO M1 | -4.32 | [1] Singapore Fuel Oil Swap Data | Product | Change from 2026/01/09 - 2026/01/15 | | --- | --- | | Singapore 380cst M1 | 0.78 | | Singapore 180cst M1 | -2.68 | | Singapore VLSFO M1 | -3.01 | | Singapore Gasoil M1 | -0.60 | | Singapore 380cst - Brent M1 | 0.27 | | Singapore VLSFO - Gasoil M1 | 1.43 | [1][9] Singapore Fuel Oil Spot Data | Product | Change from 2026/01/09 - 2026/01/15 | | --- | --- | | FOB 380cst | 0.78 | | FOB VLSFO | -2.72 | | 380 Basis | 0.05 | | High-Sulfur Domestic-International Spread | 0.9 | | Low-Sulfur Domestic-International Spread | -1.1 | [2] Domestic FU Futures Data | Product | Change from 2026/01/09 - 2026/01/15 | | --- | --- | | FU 01 | -3 | | FU 05 | -12 | | FU 09 | -13 | | FU 01 - 05 | 9 | | FU 05 - 09 | 1 | | FU 09 - 01 | -10 | [2] Domestic LU Futures Data | Product | Change from 2026/01/09 - 2026/01/15 | | --- | --- | | LU 01 | 7 | | LU 05 | -13 | | LU 09 | -22 | | LU 01 - 05 | 20 | | LU 05 - 09 | 9 | | LU 09 - 01 | -29 | [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Polyolefin Industry - LLDPE: Supply is expected to increase marginally, and demand enters the seasonal off - season with weakening downstream开工率. There is a positive feedback in the spot market, and the sustainability of demand should be monitored [1]. - PP: Both supply and demand are weak. There are many maintenance plans, and there is an expectation of inventory reduction in January. The balance has improved significantly, and attention should be paid to the implementation of maintenance plans [1]. Methanol Industry - The methanol futures are oscillating strongly. The inland price is expected to oscillate, and the port price is restricted by factors such as low MTO profits and potential maintenance of MTO devices [3]. Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry - Pure benzene: The short - term supply - demand pattern is weak, but it is driven by the strong performance of styrene and oil prices. The short - term trend is strong. It is recommended to wait and see for BZ2603 unilaterally and narrow the EB - BZ spread when it is high [5]. - Styrene: The short - term supply - demand is tight, but there is an expectation of inventory accumulation around the Spring Festival, and the upward space is limited. It is recommended to look for shorting opportunities for EB03 and narrow the EB processing fee when it is high [5]. Natural Rubber Industry - The rubber price is expected to oscillate in the range of 15,500 - 16,500. The raw material price provides support at the lower end, and the weak demand suppresses the upper end. Attention should be paid to the raw material output in Thailand [6]. Glass - Soda Ash Industry - Soda ash: The futures price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term. Attention should be paid to the production load adjustment and inventory situation of soda ash plants [9]. - Glass: The price is expected to continue to weaken in the short term and can be treated bearishly [9]. Crude Oil Industry - The oil price is generally strong due to the instability in Iran, but the increase is limited by the weak supply - demand expectation. Attention should be paid to geopolitical conflicts such as the Russia - Ukraine peace talks and the Middle East situation [11]. LPG Industry No specific views provided in the report other than price and inventory data. Polyester Industry - PX: The short - term price is expected to oscillate at a high level before the Spring Festival, and the mid - term can be treated bullishly at low levels. It is recommended to do a long - short spread for PX5 - 9 at a low level [16]. - PTA: The short - term price is expected to oscillate between 5,000 - 5,300, and the mid - term can be treated bullishly at low levels. It is recommended to do a long - short spread for TA5 - 9 at a low level [16]. - MEG: The price is under pressure. It is recommended to pay attention to the pressure at around 4,000 for EG2605, do a short - long spread for EG5 - 9 at a high level, and sell out - of - the - money call options EG2605 - C - 4100 at a high level [16]. - Short fiber: The price is driven by raw materials in the short term. It is recommended to have the same strategy as PTA unilaterally and narrow the PF processing fee when it is high [16]. - Bottle chips: The price and processing fee are expected to follow the cost side. It is recommended to have the same strategy as PTA unilaterally [16]. PVC - Caustic Soda Industry - Caustic soda: The price is expected to be stable and weak. Attention should be paid to the procurement volume of the main downstream and the price fluctuation of liquid chlorine [18]. - PVC: The fundamentals are still under pressure, but the short - term price fluctuates emotionally. It is recommended to wait and see for short positions [18]. Urea Industry - The urea price is expected to be strong in the short term. Attention should be paid to the follow - up of downstream agricultural demand and the resumption rhythm of devices [19]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Polyolefin Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: Futures and spot prices of LLDPE and PP increased, and there were changes in various spreads such as L59, PP59, and LP05 [1]. - **Inventory**: PE enterprise inventory decreased by 11.41%, and PP trader inventory decreased by 5.28% [1]. - **开工率**: PE装置开工率 increased by 0.52%, and PP装置开工率 decreased by 1.65% [1]. Methanol Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: Methanol futures and spot prices increased, and there were changes in various spreads such as MA59 and regional spreads [3]. - **Inventory**: Methanol enterprise inventory increased by 0.73%, and port inventory decreased by 6.63% [3]. - **开工率**: The upstream domestic enterprise开工率 increased by 0.54%, and some downstream device开工率 decreased [3]. Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of pure benzene, styrene, and related products increased, and there were changes in various spreads such as EB - BZ [5]. - **Inventory**: The pure benzene port inventory reached a record high, and the styrene port inventory decreased significantly [5]. - **开工率**: The开工率 of some pure benzene and styrene downstream industries changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [5]. Natural Rubber Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: The spot price of natural rubber increased, and there were changes in various spreads such as the 9 - 1 spread [6]. - **Inventory**: The bonded area inventory increased by 3.62%, and the factory - warehouse futures inventory decreased by 1.74% [6]. - **Production and开工率**: The production in Thailand, Indonesia, and other countries decreased in November, and the开工率 of automobile tires changed [6]. Glass - Soda Ash Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: The spot prices of glass and soda ash were generally stable, and there were changes in futures prices and spreads [9]. - **Inventory**: The glass factory - warehouse inventory decreased by 5.69%, and the soda ash factory - warehouse inventory increased by 4.25% [9]. - **Supply and开工率**: The开工率 and supply of soda ash remained at a high level, and the glass melting volume and产能利用率 decreased slightly [9]. Crude Oil Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of Brent, WTI, and SC crude oil increased, and there were changes in various spreads such as Brent - WTI [11]. - **Refined Oil**: The prices of refined oil products such as NYM RBOB and NYM ULSD increased, and there were changes in cracking spreads [11]. LPG Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: The LPG futures prices changed slightly, and the spot price increased. There were changes in various spreads such as PG02 - 03 [14]. - **Inventory**: The LPG refinery storage capacity ratio decreased by 1.94%, and the port inventory decreased by 0.41% [14]. - **开工率**: The upstream main refinery开工率 increased by 2.49%, and the downstream PDH开工率 increased by 0.68% [14]. Polyester Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of PX, PTA, MEG, and polyester products changed, and there were changes in various spreads such as PX - naphtha [16]. - **Inventory**: The MEG port inventory increased [16]. - **开工率**: The开工率 of PX, PTA, and polyester products changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [16]. PVC - Caustic Soda Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of PVC and caustic soda decreased slightly, and there were changes in various spreads such as V2605 - V2601 [18]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of liquid caustic soda and PVC increased [18]. - **开工率**: The开工率 of the caustic soda and PVC industries changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [18]. Urea Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: The urea futures price increased, and the spot price was stable with a slight upward trend. There were changes in various spreads and basis [19]. - **Inventory**: The domestic urea factory - warehouse inventory decreased by 3.53%, and the port inventory remained unchanged [19]. - **Supply and Demand**: The daily and weekly production of urea increased, and the agricultural demand in some regions increased [19].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Before the holiday, the 380 cracking spread fluctuated, and it weakened slightly after the holiday. The 380 monthly spread rebounded from its low but remained weak year - on - year. The high - sulfur cracking spread in Europe weakened, and the monthly spread oscillated at a low level. The 0.5% cracking spread in Singapore oscillated at a historical low, with the structure turning to C at a historical low and the basis oscillating at a historical low [3]. - In terms of inventory, Singapore's residual fuel oil had a significant inventory build - up, the high - sulfur floating storage had a significant drawdown, ARA's residual fuel oil had a slight inventory build - up, Fujairah's residual fuel oil had an inventory drawdown, the high - sulfur floating storage had an inventory drawdown, and EIA's residual fuel oil had a slight inventory build - up. The conflict in Venezuela escalated over the weekend, having a short - term positive and long - term negative impact on heavy crude oil. Attention should be paid to the duration of logistics interruption. The arrival premium of Merey crude oil at the end of December remained around - 12. The high - sulfur spot market remained loose, and attention should be paid to the boost brought by the premium and discount of heavy raw materials recently. The low - sulfur market maintained a weak oscillation pattern [10]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Rotterdam Fuel Oil Swap Data - From January 7 to January 13, 2026, the price of Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O swap M1 increased by 19.81, Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO swap M1 increased by 9.97, Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1 increased by 1.23, Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil swap M1 increased by 26.90, Rotterdam VLSFO - Gasoil M1 decreased by 16.93, LGO - Brent M1 remained unchanged, and Rotterdam VLSFO - HSFO M1 decreased by 9.84 [1]. Singapore Fuel Oil Swap Data - From January 7 to January 13, 2026, the price of Singapore 380cst M1 increased by 26.04, Singapore 180cst M1 increased by 23.27, Singapore VLSFO M1 increased by 10.53, Singapore Gasoil M1 increased by 3.65, Singapore 380cst - Brent M1 increased by 1.87, and Singapore VLSFO - Gasoil M1 decreased by 16.48 [1][9]. Singapore Fuel Oil Spot Data - From January 7 to January 13, 2026, the high - sulfur internal - external price difference decreased by 1.0, and the low - sulfur internal - external price difference increased by 3.6. The data for FOB 380cst, FOB VLSFO, and 380 basis on January 13 were not provided [2]. Domestic FU Data - From January 7 to January 13, 2026, FU 01 increased by 15, FU 05 increased by 4, FU 09 increased by 15, FU 01 - 05 increased by 11, FU 05 - 09 decreased by 11, and FU 09 - 01 remained unchanged [2]. Domestic LU Data - From January 7 to January 13, 2026, LU 01 increased by 24, LU 05 increased by 44, LU 09 increased by 31, LU 01 - 05 decreased by 20, LU 05 - 09 increased by 13, and LU 09 - 01 increased by 7 [3].

Group 1: Report Core View - Before the holiday, the 380 cracking spread fluctuated, and after the holiday, it weakened slightly. The 380 monthly spread rebounded from its low point but remained weak year-on-year. The high-sulfur cracking spread in Europe weakened, and the monthly spread oscillated at a low level. The 0.5% cracking spread in Singapore oscillated at a historical low, with the structure turning to C at a historical low and the basis oscillating at a historical low [5]. - In terms of inventory, Singapore's residual oil significantly increased in inventory, the high-sulfur floating storage significantly decreased in inventory, ARA's residual oil slightly increased in inventory, Fujairah's residual oil decreased in inventory, the high-sulfur floating storage decreased in inventory, and EIA's residual oil slightly increased in inventory. The conflict in Venezuela escalated over the weekend, which has a short-term positive and long-term negative impact on heavy crude oil. Attention should be paid to the duration of logistics interruption. The arrival premium of Merey crude oil at the end of December remained around -12. The high-sulfur spot market remained loose. Attention should be paid to the boost brought by the premium of heavy raw materials recently. The low-sulfur market maintained a weak oscillation pattern [6]. Group 2: Rotterdam Fuel Oil Data - From December 25 to December 31, 2025, the price of Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O swap M1 changed by 1.66, Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO swap M1 changed by 0.83, Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1 changed by 0.38, Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil swap M1 changed by -6.29, Rotterdam VLSFO - Gasoil M1 changed by 7.12, LGO - Brent M1 changed by -0.16, and Rotterdam VLSFO - HSFO M1 changed by -0.83 [3]. Group 3: Singapore Fuel Oil Data Swap Data - From December 25 to December 31, 2025, the price of Singapore 380cst M1 changed by 0.51, Singapore 180cst M1 changed by -1.75, Singapore VLSFO M1 changed by -4.87, Singapore Gasoil M1 changed by 0.26, Singapore 380cst - Brent M1 changed by 0.30, and Singapore VLSFO - Gasoil M1 changed by -6.80 [3]. Spot Data - From December 26 to December 31, 2025, the price of Singapore FOB 380cst changed by -0.04, FOB VLSFO changed by -2.74, 380 basis changed by -0.55, high - sulfur domestic - foreign price difference changed by -1.6, and low - sulfur domestic - foreign price difference changed by 0.0 [4]. Group 4: Domestic FU Data - From December 25 to December 31, 2025, the price of FU 01 changed by -75, FU 05 changed by -20, FU 09 changed by -18, FU 01 - 05 changed by -55, FU 05 - 09 changed by -2, and FU 09 - 01 changed by 57 [4]. Group 5: Domestic LU Data - From December 25 to December 31, 2025, the price of LU 01 changed by -245, LU 05 changed by -40, LU 09 changed by -32, LU 01 - 05 changed by -205, LU 05 - 09 changed by -8, and LU 09 - 01 changed by 213 [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the high - sulfur cracking spread rebounded, the monthly spread rebounded from a low level, and the basis rebounded. European high - sulfur cracking spread fluctuated, and the monthly spread weakened, while the EW continued to strengthen. The 0.5% cracking spread in Singapore weakened, the monthly spread fluctuated at a low level, and the basis also fluctuated at a low level. The European V low - sulfur cracking spread fluctuated at a low level [3][5]. - In terms of inventory, Singapore's residue oil inventory decreased, high - sulfur floating storage inventory increased, ARA's residue oil inventory was basically flat, Fujairah's residue oil inventory decreased significantly, high - sulfur floating storage inventory decreased, and EIA's residue oil inventory increased slightly [3][5]. - This week, the cracking spreads of gasoline and diesel in the external market continued to decline, and the price difference between low - sulfur and diesel continued to rebound. After the Al Zour refinery shut down due to a fire on October 21, the external low - sulfur market faced support, but the short - term upside space was limited [5]. - The global residue oil entered the off - season for inventory accumulation. The external cracking spread was affected by crude oil fluctuations and feedstock price premiums. This week, the external market's inventory decreased and the monthly spread strengthened, remaining volatile in the short term. The low - sulfur valuation was low but lacked a driving force [5]. 3. Data Summaries Rotterdam Fuel Oil Swap Data | Product | 2025/12/19 | 2025/12/22 | 2025/12/23 | 2025/12/24 | 2025/12/25 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3.5% HSF O Swap M1 | 323.91 | 332.23 | 333.06 | 331.79 | 331.98 | 0.19 | | 0.5% VLS FO Swap M1 | 370.46 | 379.22 | 381.38 | 379.41 | 379.54 | 0.13 | | HSFO - Brent M1 | - 8.86 | - 8.91 | - 9.15 | - 9.49 | - 9.56 | - 0.07 | | 10ppm Gasoil Swap M1 | 588.07 | 597.32 | 607.46 | 608.64 | 607.21 | - 1.43 | | VLSFO - Gasoil M1 | - 217.61 | - 218.10 | - 226.08 | - 229.23 | - 227.67 | 1.56 | | LGO - Brent M1 | 20.77 | 20.41 | 21.48 | 22.69 | - | - | | VLSFO - HSF M1 | 46.55 | 46.99 | 48.32 | 47.62 | 47.56 | - 0.06 | [1] Singapore Fuel Oil Swap Data | Product | 2025/12/19 | 2025/12/22 | 2025/12/23 | 2025/12/24 | 2025/12/25 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 380cst M1 | 335.69 | 340.79 | 347.07 | 347.60 | 344.23 | - 3.37 | | 180cst M1 | 342.69 | 347.66 | 352.82 | 352.53 | 349.23 | - 3.30 | | VLSFO M1 | 404.73 | 411.59 | 417.13 | 420.80 | 417.54 | - 3.26 | | GO M1 | 78.63 | 79.11 | 79.71 | 81.24 | 80.63 | - 0.61 | | 380cst - Brent M1 | - 6.57 | - 6.90 | - 6.88 | - 7.39 | - 7.63 | - 0.24 | | VLSFO - Gasoil M1 | - 177.13 | - 173.82 | - 172.72 | - 180.38 | - 179.12 | 1.26 | [1] Singapore Fuel Oil Spot Data | Product | 2025/12/19 | 2025/12/22 | 2025/12/23 | 2025/12/24 | 2025/12/25 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FOB 380cst | 332.35 | 337.57 | 344.15 | 343.65 | - | - | | FOB VLSFO | 403.41 | 410.73 | 416.98 | 417.55 | - | - | | 380 Basis | - 2.95 | - 2.80 | - 1.85 | - 1.60 | - | - | | High - Sulfur Domestic - Foreign Spread | 2.9 | 5.0 | 3.8 | 5.3 | - | - | | Low - Sulfur Domestic - Foreign Spread | 6.5 | 8.6 | 8.3 | 9.8 | - | - | [2] Domestic FU Data | Product | 2025/12/19 | 2025/12/22 | 2025/12/23 | 2025/12/24 | 2025/12/25 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FU 01 | 2356 | 2413 | 2433 | 2415 | 2431 | 16 | | FU 05 | 2415 | 2474 | 2496 | 2498 | 2499 | 1 | | FU 09 | 2382 | 2440 | 2463 | 2468 | 2466 | - 2 | | FU 01 - 05 | - 59 | - 61 | - 63 | - 83 | - 68 | 15 | | FU 05 - 09 | 33 | 34 | 33 | 30 | 33 | 3 | | FU 09 - 01 | 26 | 27 | 30 | 53 | 35 | - 18 | [2] Domestic LU Data | Product | 2025/12/19 | 2025/12/22 | 2025/12/23 | 2025/12/24 | 2025/12/25 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | LU 01 | 2886 | 2969 | 2976 | 3000 | 3070 | 70 | | LU 05 | 2912 | 2974 | 2994 | 3013 | 3008 | - 5 | | LU 09 | 2952 | 3010 | 3026 | 3039 | 3044 | 5 | | LU 01 - 05 | - | - 5 | - 18 | - 13 | 62 | 75 | | LU 05 - 09 | - 40 | - 36 | - 32 | - 26 | - 36 | - 10 | | LU 09 - 01 | 66 | 41 | 50 | 39 | - 26 | - 65 | [3]