Core Insights - The report highlights the competitive advantage of Tabo (滔搏) in the retail sector, emphasizing its strong retail capabilities and high dividend payouts to investors [4][5] - The report projects Tabo's revenue and net profit for FY2025 to FY2027, indicating a slight decline in revenue but a recovery in net profit growth by FY2027 [4][5] Company Overview - Tabo is identified as the largest sports retail and service platform in China, collaborating with major brands such as Nike and Adidas [4] - The company experienced a revenue decline of 7% in FY2025 and a projected decline of 6% in FY2026H1, with net profit dropping by 42% and 10% respectively [4][5] Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for Tabo are set at 946 billion, 953 billion, and 1,005 billion RMB for FY2025, FY2026, and FY2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 1.2%, 0.8%, and 5.5% [4] - The net profit estimates are 37.1 billion, 52.8 billion, and 61 billion RMB for the same years, with growth rates of -8.7%, 42.4%, and 15.5% [4] Investment Recommendations - The report maintains a "buy" rating for Tabo, citing its robust dividend payout history of 107.3% since its IPO in 2019 and a current cash position of 2.54 billion RMB [5] - The expected price-to-earnings ratio for FY2026 is 14.6, with a dividend yield of 7% [5] Industry Context - The report discusses the broader retail environment, noting challenges such as fluctuating consumer demand and the need for effective e-commerce strategies [5] - It emphasizes the importance of Tabo's strong brand partnerships and retail efficiency in maintaining its competitive edge in the market [4][5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a maintained rating for the next six months [6]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 93.5 billion RMB in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 20.2%, while net profit decreased by 30.8% to 4.078 billion RMB [1]. - The fourth quarter of 2024 saw a significant revenue increase of 54.1% year-on-year, reaching 31.1 billion RMB, driven by total transaction volume growth and expansion in the rental business [1][2]. - The company's "One Body Three Wings" strategy is progressing steadily, with notable growth in both existing and new housing transaction businesses [5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a non-GAAP adjusted net profit of 7.211 billion RMB, down 26.4% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 24.6%, a decrease of 3.3 percentage points compared to the previous year [1]. - The fourth quarter of 2024 saw a gross profit of 7.2 billion RMB, a 39.4% increase year-on-year, with a gross margin of 23%, down 2.5 percentage points from the same period last year [1]. Existing Housing Business - By the end of 2024, the number of active stores increased by 18.3% year-on-year to 49,700, and the number of active agents reached 445,000, up 12.1% year-on-year [2]. - The net income from existing housing for the entire year was 28.2 billion RMB, remaining stable year-on-year, contributing a profit of 12.18 billion RMB with a profit margin of 43.2%, down 4.0 percentage points from the previous year [2]. New Housing Business - The new housing segment generated a net income of 33.7 billion RMB in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 10.1%, contributing a profit of 8.35 billion RMB with a profit margin of 24.8%, down 1.8 percentage points from the previous year [3]. - In the fourth quarter of 2024, new housing net income reached 13.1 billion RMB, a 72.7% increase year-on-year, with a gross transaction volume (GTV) of 355.3 billion RMB, up 49.3% year-on-year [3]. Non-Housing Growth Engines - The home decoration business generated 14.8 billion RMB in revenue for 2024, a 36.1% increase year-on-year, with a profit margin of 30.7%, up 1.7 percentage points from the previous year [4]. - The rental business saw a revenue increase of 135% year-on-year to 14.3 billion RMB, with a profit margin of 5%, turning positive from a negative margin in the previous year [4]. - Emerging businesses and others contributed 2.5 billion RMB in revenue, an 8.8% increase year-on-year, primarily due to increased net income from financial services [4].

Core Viewpoint - Beike's performance in 2024 shows steady growth with a significant increase in platform scale and revenue, despite challenges in the new home market [2][5][10]. Financial Performance - In 2024, Beike's total GTV reached 3.35 trillion RMB, with total revenue of 93.5 billion RMB, representing over 20% growth compared to 2023 [2]. - The number of active real estate stores increased to 49,700, and active agents grew to 445,000, marking a year-on-year growth of 12.1% [3]. - The GTV for existing home transactions rose to 2.25 trillion RMB, an approximate 11% increase, setting a historical high [4]. Business Segments - New home transaction GTV was 900.17 billion RMB, a decline of 3.3%, but revenue increased by 10% [5]. - The renovation and furnishing segment generated 14.8 billion RMB in revenue, growing by 36% due to effective supply chain management [6]. - Rental services managed over 430,000 units, with revenue reaching 14.3 billion RMB, a substantial increase of 135% [7]. Market Trends - The fourth quarter of 2024 showed signs of market recovery, with new home transaction volumes increasing by approximately 15% since September 26, 2024 [8]. - New home GTV on Beike's platform in Q4 2024 saw a year-on-year growth of about 50%, indicating a strong market rebound [9]. - The proportion of existing home GTV increased from 40% in 2023 to 46% in 2024, with a notable increase in transaction volume [10]. Shareholder Returns - In Q4, Beike repurchased 132 million USD worth of shares, totaling 760 million USD for 2024, which is 3.9% of the total shares as of the end of 2023 [11]. - Cumulatively, since September 2022, Beike has repurchased shares worth 1.63 billion USD, representing 8.6% of the total shares before the buyback program [11]. Operational Efficiency - Beike has optimized operational efficiency, reducing the average construction time for home renovation projects by over 10 days compared to the previous year [12]. - The company has enhanced customer satisfaction in rental services through improved after-sales service capabilities [12][13]. Strategic Initiatives - Beike is diversifying its strategic layout and exploring new business models, focusing on customized services to mitigate decision-making risks in home buying [14]. - The company plans to limit heavy asset investments and transition towards a platform-based business model similar to SaaS [16]. Technology Investment - Beike aims to increase AI investments in 2025 to enhance foundational capabilities and accelerate the development of application iterations [17]. - The integration of advanced AI tools has led to a 5% reduction in work time and provided nearly 20% support for strategic planning [19]. Value-Added Services - The company is exploring low-frequency traffic channels and introducing value-added services like home decoration to create additional value for customers [20]. - Plans for 2025 include enhancing product strength and delivery quality while adopting a customer-centric approach [21].