无人配送车价破 2 万，智能物流迎来规模化拐点 20251227 摘要 智能物流车零部件成本三年内降幅超 70%，整车价格大幅下降，推动行 业规模化发展。预计 2025 年至 2030 年市场规模将从 5.1 亿元增长至 83.4 亿元，复合增长率高达 74.8%。 政策支持体系完善，从示范应用到全面推广，为智能物流车行业保驾护 航。交通运输部等部门联合印发行动计划，通过数字化转型等方式，为 智能物流车创造广阔应用场景。 L4 级别自动驾驶技术取得突破，无人配送整车价格大幅下降，与传统电 动三轮车成本相当，为规模化应用奠定基础。轻量化路线降低硬件成本， 提升场景适应性。 智能物流车产业链涵盖感知器件、解决方案到物流服务等环节，上游聚 焦四大领域，中游呈现三足鼎立格局，下游由电商与物流服务商主导， 形成良性循环。 国内无人配送市场涌现出新石器、形深智能、90 智能等企业，通过产品 差异化和细分市场定位实现市场覆盖，并积极进行海外市场拓展。 Q&A 中国智能物流车行业的发展动向如何？ 2025 年，中国智能物流车行业呈现出显著的发展势头。末端派费占比高达 60%的背景下，快递业降本增效需求迫在眉睫。政策路权持续开 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the rapid commercialization and growth potential of the unmanned delivery vehicle industry, predicting significant advancements and profitability for leading companies by 2025 [3][6]. Financing and Market Growth - Leading unmanned delivery companies have secured approximately 8.6 billion yuan in financing since the beginning of the year, with notable rounds including 1 billion yuan for New Stone and over 600 million dollars for NineSight [2]. - The industry is expected to reach a market size of around 500 billion yuan, with an anticipated increase of nearly 100,000 units in the coming year [6]. Commercialization Milestones - The critical threshold for the unmanned vehicle business is identified as 10,000 units, which enables a positive cycle of cost reduction, scenario validation, and scale expansion [4]. - New Stone and NineSight have both achieved the delivery of 10,000 vehicles, with New Stone projecting 1 billion yuan in revenue this year and full profitability by 2026 [4][11]. Operational Efficiency - Unmanned delivery vehicles are addressing significant pain points in the logistics sector, such as low vehicle utilization and high personnel costs, leading to cost reductions and efficiency improvements [9]. - For instance, Shunfeng's unmanned vehicles have reduced per-package costs by 1.32 yuan and improved efficiency by 30% [9]. Technological Advancements - The cost of unmanned delivery vehicles has decreased significantly, with New Stone's vehicle costs dropping from 200,000 yuan to 70,000 yuan between 2018 and 2023, and projected prices as low as 19,800 yuan for future models [14]. - The industry is transitioning from a research and testing phase to large-scale commercial operations, with a tenfold increase in development speed compared to the previous year [11]. Challenges and Regulatory Issues - Despite the rapid growth, the industry faces challenges related to technology, standards, and ecosystem development, particularly in maintaining stability during large-scale operations [17]. - Road rights and regulatory frameworks are significant barriers to scaling operations, with a lack of unified standards across regions increasing operational costs [18][19]. Future Outlook - The next decade is expected to see explosive growth in smart mobility, particularly in last-mile logistics and delivery services [16]. - Companies are exploring collaborative models to optimize resource utilization and reduce operational costs, such as partnerships with public transport entities [19].

Company Developments - Alibaba and Ant Group jointly invested 9.25 billion USD (approximately 66 billion RMB) to establish their headquarters in Hong Kong, aiming to expand their international business [2] - Alibaba Cloud launched its second data center in Dubai to meet the growing demand for cloud and AI services in the Middle East, expanding its global presence to 29 regions and 92 availability zones [2] - AliExpress announced the schedule for its overseas Double 11 and Black Friday events, starting pre-sales on November 8 and running sales from November 11 to December 3, focusing on "commission incentives + overseas hosting + brand expansion" [2] Logistics and Supply Chain - Cainiao unveiled its global logistics guarantee plan for the 2025 year-end promotion, offering services like "global five-day delivery" and "G2G core area three-day delivery" [3] - Ideal Auto opened its first overseas retail center in Tashkent, Uzbekistan, selling three range-extended electric models and partnering with local dealers to enhance service networks [3] - XPeng Motors launched a digital parts warehouse in Dubai, marking a new phase in its after-sales service network for the Middle East and Africa [3] Autonomous Vehicles and Technology - BYD won a bid for Singapore's L4 autonomous bus pilot project, which will test electric self-driving buses on specific routes starting mid-2026 [4] - Pony.ai passed the Hong Kong Stock Exchange hearing and is actively expanding its business internationally, including partnerships in Luxembourg, Singapore, and Dubai [4] - New Stone Technology partnered with UAE's K2 Group to accelerate the deployment of autonomous delivery vehicles in the region [5] Renewable Energy and Storage - Canadian company Canadian Solar's subsidiary, Canadian Solar Energy, signed a battery storage system supply agreement for projects totaling 2.122 GWh in Ontario, with operations expected to start in 2026 [6] Investment and Financing - Aishi Technology completed a 100 million RMB B+ round financing, with over 100 million global users and an annual recurring revenue exceeding 40 million USD [6] - Cloud Robotics company Yunji Technology went public on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, raising approximately 590 million HKD and achieving a market capitalization close to 10 billion HKD [6] - JiuSi Intelligent secured a multi-million USD financing round led by Ant Group, focusing on L4 autonomous delivery vehicles and expanding its operations globally [7] Market Trends - GITEX Global 2025 was held in Dubai, showcasing major breakthroughs in biotechnology, AI, quantum computing, and data centers, attracting thousands of tech companies [8] - China's exports of holiday goods, dolls, and animal-shaped toys exceeded 50 billion RMB in the first three quarters, highlighting the influence of traditional culture and innovation in foreign trade [8] - Nine Chinese companies made it to the 2025 Global Top 50 Mobile Game Publishers list, reflecting the strength of the Chinese gaming industry [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for the unmanned logistics vehicle sector, highlighting the commercialization phase and cost reduction opportunities [4]. Core Insights - The launch of the Jiushi E6 unmanned logistics vehicle at a price of 19,800 yuan marks a significant reduction below 20,000 yuan, stimulating market enthusiasm and introducing a new era of intelligent delivery [1][12]. - The unmanned logistics vehicle industry has transitioned from "technological feasibility" to "commercialization," with over 100 cities granted road rights for commercial applications [2][12]. - The report emphasizes the economic advantages of unmanned logistics vehicles, with significant cost reductions in delivery operations, potentially lowering per-package costs by 50% [3][19]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Focus on Unmanned Vehicles - Jiushi's E6 model is priced at 19,800 yuan, introducing a subscription service for fully autonomous driving at 1,800 yuan per month, significantly lowering user entry barriers [1][12]. - The industry is witnessing a surge in orders and production capabilities, with Jiushi and New Stone both reporting substantial order backlogs and delivery milestones [2][16]. Section 2: Cost Model and Economic Viability - The operational data from New Stone indicates that a single unmanned vehicle can deliver 2,000 packages daily, with a cost reduction of 2-3 jiao per package when utilizing multiple vehicles [3][19]. - A cost comparison shows that the monthly operational cost of the Jiushi E6 is estimated to be below 3,000 yuan, significantly lower than traditional delivery vehicles [19][20]. Section 3: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that unmanned logistics vehicles are well-suited for last-mile delivery within a 10 km radius, enhancing efficiency and reducing costs for logistics companies [4][21]. - Continued recommendations for companies like SF Holding and attention to SF City, which is exploring collaborative delivery ecosystems with unmanned vehicles [4][21]. Section 4: Industry Data Tracking - Air passenger volume from May 30 to June 1 showed a year-on-year increase of 1.3%, while domestic ticket prices decreased by 4.6% [22][23]. - The shipping sector experienced a significant increase in the SCFI index by 31%, indicating a robust demand for shipping services [39][43].