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国补发放加速 储能电芯涨价 | 投研报告
Group 1: Energy Storage Market - The domestic new energy storage project procurement scale reached 56.1GW/213.8GWh from January to July 2025, with actual storage system demand at 53.1GW/208.6GWh, a year-on-year increase of 181% [1][5] - The average prices of square lithium iron phosphate storage cells (100Ah, 280Ah, 314Ah) as of September 5, 2025, were 0.370, 0.298, and 0.298 yuan/Wh respectively, showing a slight increase [1][4] - The overseas storage orders signed by Chinese companies exceeded 160GWh from January to June 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 220.28% [5] Group 2: Renewable Energy Subsidies - The renewable energy subsidies distributed from January to August 2025 significantly exceeded expectations, with the amount received in August alone accounting for approximately 70% of the total subsidies for the first eight months [2][3] - The subsidies cover both renewable energy generation and biomass power generation enterprises, aligning with the renewable energy fund's coverage [2] Group 3: Financial Improvement for Companies - The significant recovery of accounts receivable is expected to improve cash flow and restore company valuations, addressing previous market concerns regarding declining electricity prices and accounts receivable risks [3] - Companies such as Datang New Energy, China Power, and Longyuan Power are recommended based on the potential for improved cash flow from accounts receivable recovery [3] Group 4: Capacity Utilization and Market Outlook - Companies like CATL reported a battery system capacity utilization rate of 89.86% in the 2025 mid-year report, a notable increase from previous periods [5] - The capital market is expected to recover from previous pessimistic expectations regarding storage demand, leading to potential dual upgrades in performance expectations and valuation levels for storage-related stocks [6]
大能源行业2025年第36周周报:国补发放加速储能电芯涨价-20250907
Hua Yuan Zheng Quan· 2025-09-07 12:33
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Viewpoints - The acceleration of renewable energy subsidies is expected to significantly improve cash flow and valuation levels for companies in the renewable energy sector, particularly for new energy operators and biomass/waste incineration power generation companies [5][6][16] - The recent issuance of renewable energy subsidies has exceeded expectations, with the total amount received from January to August 2025 far surpassing the entire year of 2024, primarily due to a large subsidy disbursed in August [11][12] - The recovery of accounts receivable is anticipated to enhance cash flow and improve balance sheets, which will positively impact stock valuations in the Hong Kong market [6][16] Summary by Sections Renewable Energy Sector - The total subsidies received by renewable energy companies from January to August 2025 have already reached significant levels, with many companies receiving around 70% of their total subsidies in August alone [5][11] - Companies such as Datang New Energy, China Power, and Longyuan Power are recommended based on their potential for improved cash flow from receivables [6][16] Biomass and Waste Incineration Power Generation - The report highlights that biomass power generation companies are also expected to benefit from the subsidy disbursement, with companies like China Everbright Environment and Shaoneng Co. being recommended for their potential higher dividend capabilities post-receivable recovery [6][16] Energy Storage Sector - The average price of square lithium iron phosphate energy storage cells has seen a slight increase, with domestic demand remaining strong and production capacity utilization rates high [7][18] - The domestic new energy storage project bidding scale reached 56.1GW/213.8GWh from January to July 2025, indicating a year-on-year growth of 181% [19] - The report suggests that companies like CATL, Yiwei Lithium Energy, and Guoxuan High-Tech are worth watching due to their expected performance elasticity amid rising energy storage cell prices [18][19]