华安证券主要观点如下： 综合整治内卷式竞争，积极把握周期反转机会 国产替代引领成长主线，布局正当时 智通财经APP获悉，华安证券发布研报称，2026年全球宏观面临极大不确定性，在全球贸易格局重塑、 化工资本开支放缓的情况下，该行建议关注两大确定性较高的投资主线：反内卷与国产替代。25年受上 游大宗能源价格下降及化工品供需承压影响，中国化工产品价格指数回落至低位。 生物基材料受国家政策大力扶持，企业加速技术突破与产业化，从生物基单体到复材制品的国产化生态 逐步成形;润滑油添加剂国内企业加速技术突破，战略转型成效显著，多款高端产品通过国际认证，进 出口结构逆转国产替代进入快车道;全球显示面板市场稳定增长，国内企业加速推进材料升级迭代及材 料研发，国产化进程显著加速;电子陶瓷海外厂商三超多强，MLCC国产突破伴随AI/汽车需求转暖，供 需向好;氟化液3M退出市场格局重塑，液冷与半导体制造需求正盛，看好国产厂商市场占有率提升;AI服 务器爆发性增长，电子级聚苯醚凭借优异介电性能成为关键材料，国内厂商实现技术突破并量产，进入 头部供应链，国产替代提速;晶圆产能全球进入扩张周期，电子化学品作为必须耗材在制程提升与产能 扩 ...

Investment Strategy Overview - The report emphasizes two main investment themes for the chemical industry: anti-involution policies and domestic substitution, which are expected to drive recovery and growth in the sector [4][5][6] Anti-Involution and Cycle Recovery - The report suggests that the chemical industry is at a turning point, with anti-involution measures leading to a recovery in the cycle. Key areas include the peak of new capacity in organic silicon, the end of PTA capacity expansion, and a rebound in prices for certain chemicals due to supply chain disruptions [4][5] - The China Chemical Product Price Index (CCPI) has decreased significantly, dropping to 3865 points by November 30, 2025, down 16.37% from early 2024 and 10.71% from the beginning of 2025 [4][20] Domestic Substitution as a Growth Driver - Domestic substitution is highlighted as a key growth driver, with significant support from national policies for bio-based materials and advancements in technology leading to a more robust domestic supply chain [4][6] - The report identifies several companies positioned to benefit from these trends, including KaiSai Bio and RuiFeng New Materials, which are making strides in bio-based materials and lubricant additives, respectively [5][6] Market Dynamics and Price Recovery - The report notes that while the chemical market is experiencing a downturn, certain segments are expected to see price recovery due to improved supply-demand dynamics and reduced capacity expansion [4][22] - Specific chemical products have shown varied price movements, with some experiencing significant declines while others are stabilizing or recovering [22] Manufacturing Sector Recovery - The manufacturing sector is showing signs of recovery, which is anticipated to support the chemical industry. The report mentions that the real estate market is stabilizing, and automotive production has increased, indicating a potential uptick in demand for chemical products [25][33] Capital Expenditure Trends - Capital expenditure growth in the chemical industry is slowing, with a notable decline in new projects. The report indicates that the total construction in progress for the chemical sector was 327.57 billion yuan in Q3 2025, down 17.64% year-on-year [34][39] Inventory and Consumption Trends - High inventory levels in the chemical sector are being addressed as consumer demand begins to recover. The report suggests that the inventory-to-revenue ratio for the basic chemical industry was 0.62 in Q3 2025, indicating a slight increase from the previous year [41][42] Profitability and Financial Performance - The report highlights a recovery in profitability for the chemical industry, with gross margins and return on equity (ROE) showing improvement in Q3 2025 compared to previous periods [56][60] - Specific sub-sectors, such as agrochemicals and fluorochemicals, have demonstrated significant profit growth, with some exceeding 100% year-on-year increases [55][56]

Core Insights - The Huizhou New Materials Industrial Park has attracted a total of 36 projects with a cumulative investment of 47.6 billion yuan, focusing on high-end plasticizers and electronic chemicals in 2025 [1] Group 1: Strategic Positioning - The park aims to become a leading new materials industrial base in China and an innovation hub for new materials technology in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, leveraging raw material resource advantages [1] - The industrial park is concentrating on downstream petrochemical industries such as high-end polyolefins and semiconductor materials, accelerating the aggregation along the complete industrial chain from C2 to aromatics [1] Group 2: Project Highlights - In the first half of the year, the signed electronic chemical projects focus on semiconductor packaging materials and display panel materials, further strengthening the electronic new materials industry cluster led by Bailihong Shengda and Xingfu Electronics [1] - A key project for the first half of 2025 is the Guangdong Lichuang Chemical New Materials Co., Ltd. project, with a total investment of 2.56 billion yuan, producing 180,000 tons/year of phthalic anhydride and 800,000 tons/year of various plasticizers, expected to become the largest plasticizer production base in China with an estimated annual output value of 8.8 billion yuan [1]