从价格战到价值战，光伏行业进入"反内卷"新阶段 光伏自2023年以来产业链价格大幅下滑，整治内卷式竞争的急迫性已十分强烈。面对日益激烈的价格战，高层会议已明确态度。 今年以来，政策层面围绕"反内卷"密集发声。从3月政府工作报告强调整治内卷式竞争，到6月修订出台《反不正当竞争法》，再到7月中央财经委会议提 出"反内卷"竞争，治理无序竞争，推动产能退出。 数据显示，在不得低于成本价销售的价格法规要求下，近期硅料价格已大幅上涨。 根据硅业分会报价，截至7月23日，多晶硅n型复投料成交均价为4.68万元/吨，周环比上涨12.23%；n型颗粒硅成交均价为4.40万元/吨，周环比上涨7.32%。 近期，"反内卷"成为光伏行业的高频关键词。 在政策预期和市场情绪的推动下，光伏产业链各环节均出现不同程度的上涨。数据显示，近日，多晶硅期货价格强势上涨，涨幅超60%，现货价格也从底部 3万元/吨强势反弹。这种大宗商品期货市场的剧烈反应，直接体现了市场对"反内卷"政策执行力的强烈预期。 数据显示，截至7月25日，中证光伏指数自6月低点以来，已上涨超过17%。 在业内人士看来，光伏指数涨幅尚未充分反映行业见底事实——当全行业深陷亏损 ...

看好反内卷背景下生猪、牧业大周期 20250723 摘要 生猪行业内卷加剧，企业通过降本增效应对亏损，但竞争导致试错成本 增加，部分企业减产甚至退出市场。行业整体呈现"牛短熊长"格局， 农业板块二级市场表现不佳。 猪肉价格波动对 CPI 影响显著，虽占比不高（1.2%-1.5%），但周期性 强，放大效应明显。2025 年上半年猪价环比下降 20%，若无政策干预， 下半年可能进一步下跌，拖累 CPI，目前约三分之一养殖主体亏损。 政策调控旨在平衡生猪供需，发改委牵头六部委，通过跟踪前 30 家企 业生产数据和分解指标至地方，计划将能繁母猪数量降至 3,950 万头， 以实现周期反转和价格上涨。 初期政策执行效果不佳，部分龙头企业逆势扩张，体重反弹。监管层将 加强信贷政策，维持 14 元/公斤底部价格水平。优秀企业成本可达 11 元/公斤，利润空间大，为投资提供支撑。 推荐牧原股份，其成本优势显著，盈利水平释放潜力大。若 2026 年成 本降至 11 元/公斤，利润可达 360 元/头，实现 300 亿以上利润水平， 具备长期投资价值。 生猪价格波动对 CPI 和农户收益有何影响？ 猪肉在 CPI 中占比约为 1 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the agricultural sector [1][4]. Core Viewpoints - The report is optimistic about the reversal of the beef cycle, recommending investments in livestock, pet industries, and companies with low valuations in the pig and poultry sectors [3][4]. - The beef price remains strong during the off-season, indicating a potential upward trend in the beef cycle for 2025 [1][3]. - The supply of pigs is expected to maintain low volatility, with a forecast for continued price stability in 2025 [1][3]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Overview and Data Summary - The report highlights that beef prices are resilient during the off-season, while pig prices show strong support [1]. - As of July 11, 2025, the price of live pigs is 14.70 CNY/kg, down 3.86% week-on-week, while the price of 7kg piglets is approximately 445 CNY/head, up 2.75% week-on-week [1]. 2. Fundamental Tracking 2.1 Swine - The price of live pigs is expected to maintain low volatility, with a forecast for continued market stability in 2025 [1][14]. 2.2 Poultry - The report notes a reduction in parent stock and structural changes in the poultry market, with consumption gradually shifting upwards [1][15]. 2.3 Beef - The domestic beef market price is 59.23 CNY/kg as of July 11, 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 27.38% [1][16]. 3. Key Company Profit Forecasts and Investment Ratings - Companies such as Guangming Meat Industry, Muyuan Foods, and Haida Group are rated as "Outperform" with respective earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2025 of 0.53, 3.57, and 2.64 CNY [4].

Group 1: Core Views - The report maintains an "outperform" rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector, highlighting a favorable investment environment for livestock, pet, and pork industries [1][3][12] - The report emphasizes the potential reversal of the beef cycle in 2025, with expectations of rising prices driven by both domestic and international markets [14][21] - The pet industry is identified as a high-growth sector, benefiting from changing consumer demographics and increasing emotional spending [15][18] Group 2: Investment Recommendations - Key recommendations for the livestock sector include Guangming Meat Industry, a rare listed beef company with stable resources from New Zealand, and Muyuan Foods, a leading player in pig farming [1][3][18] - In the pet food sector, Zhongchong Co. is highlighted as a pioneer with synchronized growth in domestic and international markets [1][3][18] - For the pork industry, the report recommends companies such as DeKang Agriculture and Muyuan Foods, which are expected to benefit from improving cash flows and dividend ratios [1][3][16] Group 3: Market Trends and Data - As of June 2025, the average price of live pigs was 14.80 yuan/kg, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 2.85% [2][21] - The report notes a decrease in the price of 7kg piglets to 433 yuan/head, down 13.95% month-on-month, indicating a cautious approach to industry expansion [2][21] - The poultry sector is experiencing increased supply, with expectations of demand recovery, particularly for yellow chickens, which are anticipated to benefit from domestic demand improvements [28][39]

Core Viewpoint - The resignation of the chairman of Western Pastoral has raised concerns about the company's ongoing significant losses and the impact of a new controlling shareholder on its strategic direction [1][2]. Group 1: Company Performance - In 2024, Western Pastoral reported a significant decline in performance, with revenue of 938 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 16.46%, and a net loss of 119 million yuan, down 84.92% year-on-year [2][3]. - The company's revenue continued to decline in the first quarter of 2025, with 187 million yuan in revenue, a 20.87% decrease year-on-year, and a net loss of 9.81 million yuan, a 129.95% increase in losses year-on-year [2]. - During the tenure of the former chairman, the company's performance showed a trend of initial stability followed by decline, with revenue increasing from 820 million yuan in 2020 to 1.325 billion yuan in 2022, but net profit remained low [2][3]. Group 2: Industry Context - The dairy industry has been in a downturn for over three years, with an oversupply situation contributing to Western Pastoral's ongoing losses. The price of raw milk has been declining since September 2021, leading to significant losses in the industry [4]. - In 2024, the total production of raw milk was 40.79 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.8%, indicating a challenging environment for dairy producers [4]. Group 3: Shareholder Changes - In September 2024, Western Pastoral changed its controlling shareholder, with the previous state-owned shareholder transferring its shares to Xinjiang Tiande Biological Co., which now holds 41.82% of the company [5]. - Despite the change in controlling shareholder, the actual controller of Western Pastoral remains unchanged, and the company stated that the chairman's resignation would not affect its strategic direction [5][6]. - Following the change in control, foreign institutional investors, including Morgan Stanley, began to increase their holdings in Western Pastoral, indicating a potential positive outlook for the dairy sector [6][7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the agricultural sector [4] Core Views - The report is optimistic about the reversal of the beef cycle, recommending investments in pet products and Hai Da Group, while focusing on undervalued leading companies in the pig and poultry sectors [3] - The pork production capacity is expected to remain stable, with strong support for pig prices in 2025 [1][3] - The beef market is showing resilience during the off-season, with expectations for a bullish cycle in 2025 [1][3] Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Overview and Data Summary - Weekly pig price as of July 4 is 15.29 CNY/kg, up 5.01% week-on-week [1] - Chicken prices are experiencing a decline, with broiler prices at 6.18 CNY/kg, down 10% week-on-week [1] - The average beef price is 59.35 CNY/kg, stable week-on-week and up 27.63% year-on-year [1] 2. Fundamental Tracking 2.1 Pork - Pork prices are expected to maintain low volatility, with a forecast for continued market stability in 2025 [1][14] 2.2 Poultry - The parent stock of broilers is decreasing, indicating a structural change in consumption [1][15] 2.3 Beef - The beef market is expected to benefit from a cyclical upturn, with prices remaining strong [1][16] 2.4 Soybean Meal - Current soybean prices are stable at 3926 CNY/ton, with soybean meal prices at 2928 CNY/ton, up 0.76% week-on-week [2][16] 2.5 Corn - Corn prices are expected to see moderate increases, with current prices at 2443 CNY/ton, up 0.37% week-on-week [2][16] 2.6 Sugar - Sugar prices are slightly increasing, with current prices at 6050 CNY/ton, up 0.33% week-on-week [2][16] 3. Company Profit Forecasts and Investment Ratings - Companies such as Guangming Meat Industry, Muyuan Foods, and Hai Da Group are rated as "Outperform" with respective EPS forecasts for 2025 [4]

Group 1 - The A-share market showed mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.21% at 3451.69 points, while the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext Index fell by 0.32% and 0.58% respectively, with a half-day trading volume of 981.32 billion yuan [1] - The pig price has been declining since Q2 2024, with an increase in both breeding sows and newborn piglets, leading to a potential negative impact on CPI if prices continue to drop, prompting government regulatory concerns [1] - According to Zhongtai Securities, the current market conditions suggest that the stock price of the pig sector is at a bottom level, with low risks of further decline, indicating that any minor positive news could trigger significant price increases [1] Group 2 - Huayuan Securities highlighted that agriculture, as a fundamental sector, is experiencing a rise in investment value due to its unique attributes such as "anti-cyclical asset premium" and "historically low valuations" [2] - The investment approach in the pig sector is shifting from a "cyclical thinking" to a focus on "quality and price," with leading companies expected to have strong profit certainty by 2025 [2] - The Agricultural 50 ETF (516810) closely tracks the CSI Agricultural Theme Index, covering various segments including breeding, agricultural chemicals, and feed, with the top ten weighted stocks accounting for over 60% [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the agricultural products sector [1][5][4]. Core Views - The report is optimistic about the reversal of the beef cycle and recommends investments in leading companies in the livestock sector, particularly in beef and raw milk, which are expected to experience a positive resonance in 2025 [3][4]. - The pet industry is highlighted as a growth sector benefiting from demographic changes, while the feed sector, particularly Haida Group, is expected to gain from the recovery in aquaculture [3][4]. - The report notes that the pig industry shows insufficient expansion willingness, but the overall market conditions are expected to remain stable through 2025, with a focus on undervalued leading companies [3][4]. - Poultry production is expected to maintain low volatility, with white chicken consumption gradually increasing and yellow chicken likely to benefit from improved domestic demand [3][4]. Summary by Sections Livestock - **Pork**: The average price of live pigs is 14.16 CNY/kg, with a week-on-week increase of 1.22%. The price of 7kg piglets is approximately 446 CNY/head, down 4.98% week-on-week [1][13]. - **Beef**: The domestic beef market price is 59.35 CNY/kg, showing a slight decrease of 0.05% week-on-week but a significant increase of 27.63% year-on-year [1][15]. - **Poultry**: The price of broiler chicks is 1.23 CNY/bird, down 43% week-on-week, while the price of eggs in major production areas is 2.90 CNY/jin, up 9.85% week-on-week but down 35.27% year-on-year [1][14]. Feed and Raw Materials - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price is 3024 CNY/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 1%. The report indicates strong support for supply and demand in the medium to long term [2][3]. - **Corn**: The domestic corn spot price is 2415 CNY/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 0.37% and a year-on-year increase of 0.12% [2][3]. - **Sugar**: The price in Guangxi is 5980 CNY/ton, down 0.17% week-on-week, with attention on import rhythms and crude oil price fluctuations [2][3]. Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks include: - **Beef**: Guangming Meat Industry - **Pets**: Guibao Pet, Zhongchong Co., and Ruipu Biological - **Feed**: Haida Group - **Pork**: Dekang Agriculture, Muyuan Foods, Huazhong Agriculture, and others - **Poultry**: Lihua Co., Yisheng Co., and Shengnong Development [3][4].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2][6] Core Viewpoints - The report anticipates a turning point in the beef cycle in 2025, with a continued rise in meat prices expected until 2027, driven by supply adjustments and improved market conditions [4][16] - The domestic beef and milk prices have diverged, with the beef-to-milk price ratio reaching a historical high of 20.97, indicating potential for accelerated dairy cow culling and a subsequent recovery in raw milk prices [3][20] - The report highlights that the domestic beef market is expected to tighten due to reduced supply and import pressures, leading to a sustained upward trend in beef prices [11][16] Summary by Sections Beef Market Outlook - The report projects that the beef market will experience a significant recovery starting in 2025, with prices expected to rise until 2027 due to supply adjustments and reduced losses among farmers [5][16] - The current beef price has been under pressure, with a cumulative decline of nearly 25% from the peak in 2023, but the report suggests that the market is poised for recovery [5][10] Dairy Market Outlook - The raw milk market has been underperforming, with prices dropping below cash costs, but improvements are anticipated in the second half of 2025 as supply and demand dynamics shift [17][25] - The report notes that the culling of dairy cows will provide additional beef supply, reinforcing the interconnectedness of the beef and dairy markets [19][20] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies directly benefiting from the beef market recovery, such as Bright Meat Industry, and suggests monitoring dairy farming companies like Yuran Dairy, Modern Farming, and China Shengmu for potential performance recovery [4][26]

Group 1 - The 2025 Lujiazui Forum opened with a focus on "financial openness and cooperation in the global economic changes" featuring key financial leaders from China [1] - The innovation drug sector has seen a significant rebound in 2025, with the CSI Innovation Drug Index rising by 13.43% and the Hang Seng Innovation Drug Index soaring by 60% [2] - Apple emerged as the biggest winner during the 618 shopping festival, with a smartphone sales increase of over 8% year-on-year, driven by price reductions and strong performance of the iPhone 16 series [2] Group 2 - The brand endorsement market is experiencing a shift towards older celebrities, with an increase in high-profile endorsements from senior actors and actresses [3] - In Q1 2025, the number of clients for TV variety shows decreased by 14.2% compared to the previous year, indicating a trend of advertisers withdrawing from traditional media [4] - Major dairy companies like Mengniu and Yili reported significant declines in profits and revenues, suggesting a potential shift in advertising strategies towards user engagement rather than traditional ad placements [4]