1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall market is affected by the geopolitical situation between the US and Iran. The conflict has led to significant fluctuations in commodity prices, and the market is in a state of high uncertainty. The end - conflict signals released by both sides have a certain impact on market sentiment, but the actual supply and demand fundamentals also play important roles in price trends [2][9][93]. - Different industries have different supply - demand situations. For example, in the metals industry, some metals are affected by supply disruptions in the Middle East, while others are influenced by changes in domestic production and demand. In the agricultural products industry, factors such as planting area, harvest progress, and downstream demand affect prices. In the energy - chemical industry, the conflict in the Middle East has a significant impact on the supply and cost of raw materials [24][70][93]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Daily Selections - **Tin**: With the US and Iran expressing the willingness to end the conflict, market risk appetite has recovered, and tin prices are expected to be strong in the short term. Supply has improved significantly, and demand is gradually recovering. It is recommended to buy long positions [2][35]. - **Soda Ash**: Cost support has weakened, and soda ash is oscillating downward. The short - term supply - demand pattern is supply - strong and demand - weak, but the downward space is expected to be limited, with the SA605 contract referring to the range of 1150 - 1250 [3][117]. - **Rebar**: Raw materials are strong, supporting the steel price center. The supply and demand are seasonally rising, and the steel price's upward drive mainly comes from the raw material side [4][53]. - **Live Pigs**: Spot support is limited, and capacity pressure suppresses the far - month contracts. The short - term price may be boosted by second - fattening sentiment, but there is a possibility of further decline [5][74]. 3.2 Macro - finance - **Stock Index Futures**: The Asia - Pacific market is down, and the Q2 style tends to focus on fundamental verification. It is recommended to wait and see [6][8]. - **Precious Metals**: The leaders of the US and Iran have expressed the will to end the war, the US dollar has fallen, and precious metals have rebounded significantly. In the short term, gold may have a technical repair, and silver may also have a band - trading opportunity. Platinum and palladium are in a state of shock and consolidation [9][12]. 3.3 Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Iran's intention to end the war has led to a rebound in copper prices. The supply - demand fundamentals have improved slightly, and the medium - and long - term copper supply - demand contradiction logic has not changed significantly. It is recommended to wait and see, with the main contract focusing on the pressure at 97000 - 98000 [14][18]. - **Alumina**: Warehouse receipts are continuously accumulating, and the market is running weakly. The industry is in a state of over - capacity, and the price is expected to fluctuate around the cost line. It is recommended to maintain a short - selling strategy at high prices [19][21]. - **Aluminum**: The expectation of production cuts in the Middle East is fermenting, and the price is hitting the 25000 mark. The short - term core operating range is expected to be 24000 - 26000, and long positions are recommended to be held [22][24]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The price is strongly supported by the price of primary aluminum, and the upward and downward spaces are limited. The short - term price operating range is expected to be 23000 - 24500 [25][26]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices have rebounded, and spot transactions are average. The supply - demand cycle is weak, and the smelting cost will support the zinc price. It is recommended to take a low - buying strategy on dips [27][30]. - **Tin**: Similar to the analysis in the daily selection, tin prices are expected to be strong in the short term, and it is recommended to buy long positions [31][35]. - **Nickel**: The market is oscillating, and the Indonesian export tax policy is still uncertain. The main contract is expected to operate in the range of 134000 - 140000 [36][38]. - **Stainless Steel**: Cost support is strengthening, and the market is maintaining a strong - oscillating trend. The main contract is expected to operate in the range of 14200 - 14800, and a mid - term low - buying strategy is recommended [38][41]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Supply expectations are uncertain, and the market has fallen significantly. The short - term market may adjust, and it is recommended to wait and see and conduct short - term range operations [42][45]. - **Polysilicon**: The market is oversupplied, and the futures are oscillating downward. It is recommended to wait and see [46][47]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Production control has not been achieved, and the futures are falling. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 8000 - 9000, and strategies such as short - selling at high prices or long - buying at low prices can be considered [48][51]. 3.4 Ferrous Metals - **Steel**: Raw material prices support the steel price center. Supply and demand are seasonally rising, and the steel price's upward drive mainly comes from the raw material side [52][53]. - **Iron Ore**: Short - term shipments have declined, and the supply - demand pattern has improved. The main contract is expected to oscillate at a high level in the range of 780 - 830 [54][56]. - **Coking Coal**: Auction transactions have declined, and the market is affected by geopolitical risks. It is recommended to wait and see, with the 2605 contract referring to the range of 1050 - 1250 [57][59]. - **Coke**: The spot price increase is about to be implemented, and the market is following the trend of coking coal. It is recommended to wait and see, with the 2605 contract referring to the range of 1600 - 1800 [60][63]. - **Silicon Iron**: It is necessary to pay attention to the change in settlement electricity prices, and the market is in a tight - balance state. It is recommended to conduct range operations in the range of 5800 - 6200 [64][65]. - **Manganese Silicon**: Production cuts have been implemented, and the cost support of manganese ore may weaken. It is expected to oscillate strongly in the range of 5700 - 6800 [67][69]. 3.5 Agricultural Products - **Meal**: The US soybean planting intention has been slightly increased, and the domestic soybean meal spot market is pessimistic. The future supply pressure will increase, and the soybean meal lacks effective support [70][72]. - **Live Pigs**: Similar to the analysis in the daily selection, spot support is limited, and capacity pressure suppresses the far - month contracts [73][74]. - **Corn**: The bottom support is strong, and the decline is limited. It is necessary to pay attention to the subsequent policy release [75][77]. - **Sugar**: The spot trading is average, and the market is maintaining a high - level oscillation. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [78][80]. - **Cotton**: The USDA report shows an increase in the US cotton planting area, and domestic downstream enterprises are cautious in restocking. It is necessary to focus on the actual orders of downstream enterprises, the change in the new - season planting area, and the weather in the main production areas [80][82]. - **Eggs**: Terminal sales are slow, and egg prices are generally falling. It is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation and a weak trend [83][84]. - **Oils**: Indonesia's plan to promote B50 in July has boosted the oil market. Palm oil may rise in the short term, soybean oil is affected by the increase in US soybean planting area, and rapeseed oil is following the international oil market and maintaining a wide - range oscillation [85][87]. - **Jujubes**: The supply - demand pattern is loose, and the price is expected to oscillate and fall to build a bottom. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8500 - 9500 [88][89]. - **Apples**: The Tomb - sweeping Festival stocking is less than expected, and the price is continuing to weaken. The 05 contract is supported by low inventory, and the 10 contract is affected by the weather expectation of the new - season flowering period [90][91]. 3.6 Energy - Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The US and Iran have sent signals to cool down the conflict, and oil prices are running weakly. The short - term may be in a weak - oscillation pattern, but the supply shortage still exists, and it is necessary to pay attention to the negotiation progress and the navigation situation of the Bab el - Mandeb Strait [92][93]. - **PX**: Affected by the geopolitical situation, PX is oscillating at a high level. The short - term supply and demand are weak, but the overall supply - demand in April is expected to be tight, and it is recommended to wait and see [94][95]. - **PTA**: Similar to PX, it is oscillating at a high level. The 4 - month inventory is expected to accumulate, and the demand may drag down the raw materials. It is recommended to pay attention to the oil price trend [96][97]. - **Short - fiber**: It has limited self - driving force and follows the raw materials. It is recommended to pay attention to the restoration of the passage of the Strait of Hormuz and the cost transmission of downstream products [98]. - **Bottle - grade PET**: The supply is expected to be tight in April, and the processing fee is expected to be strong. It is recommended to take the same strategy as PTA [99][101]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The supply will decrease significantly in the second quarter, and the inventory will be significantly reduced. It still has the potential to rise, but attention should be paid to the risk of a decline after a rise [102]. - **Pure Benzene**: It is oscillating at a high level following the oil price. The supply is expected to decrease, and the supply - demand is expected to improve. It is recommended to wait and see [103]. - **Styrene**: Similar to pure benzene, it is oscillating at a high level following the oil price. The supply - demand has weakened, but it is still relatively tight. It is recommended to take the same strategy as pure benzene [104][105]. - **LLDPE**: The market is falling, and the basis is strengthening. The supply is expected to shrink, and the price has support at the bottom. It is expected to oscillate in a wide range [106]. - **PP**: Upstream production cuts are increasing, and the 05 contract has significantly reduced inventory. It is recommended to go long on the 09 contract on dips [107]. - **Methanol**: The market shows a near - strong and far - weak pattern. It is recommended to reduce long positions [108]. - **Caustic Soda**: The export expectation has been fulfilled, and the market has returned to the fundamentals. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [109][110]. - **PVC**: The chemical market sentiment has subsided, and the price is adjusting. The short - term may be weakly adjusted, and attention should be paid to the geopolitical situation and the actual production suspension rhythm of the devices [111][112]. - **Urea**: There is no strong unilateral driving force, and the price is running in a range. It is recommended to pay attention to the downstream demand and policy dynamics, with the main contract referring to the range of 1830 - 1900 [113]. - **Soda Ash**: Cost support has weakened, and it is oscillating downward. It is recommended to hold short positions [114][117]. - **Glass**: Cost support has weakened, and it is approaching the previous low. It is recommended to hold short positions [114][118]. - **Natural Rubber**: The US and Iran have released signals to end the conflict, and rubber prices are rising. It is recommended to wait and see, with the operating range expected to be 16000 - 17500 [119][121]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The situation in the Middle East is fluctuating, and BR is oscillating at a high level. It still has the potential to rise before the oil transportation in the Middle East is restored, but attention should be paid to the risk of a decline after a rise [121][123]. 3.7 Container Shipping to Europe - The off - season cargo - collection is under pressure, and the overall market is weakly oscillating. The 04 contract is oscillating widely around the spot price center, and the 06 contract is expected to oscillate widely following the geopolitical situation. It is recommended to operate in the range and pay attention to risks [123][125].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, recommend a bearish strategic allocation, widen the Platts north - south different oil - type spread before Libya's mid - year production increase, short the high - sulfur fuel oil cracking spread, and short the INE - Brent cross - regional spread [2]. - For methanol, suggest taking profits at high prices and widening the MTO profit at low prices [5]. - For urea, suggest a short - selling allocation, and expect short - term demand support when the substitution valuation reaches the extreme [8]. - For rubber, suggest flexible trading, taking profits on butadiene rubber out - of - the - money call options, starting to allocate put options, and continuing to hold the long NR main contract and short RU2609 position [14]. - For PVC, although the short - term fundamentals do not fully reflect the supply shock, the narrative logic turns to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which may offset the negative impact of the cancellation of export tax rebates [18]. - For pure benzene and styrene, due to the continuous geopolitical conflict in the Middle East, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines [21]. - For polyethylene, wait for the marginal increase in the number of ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz and then short the LL2605 - LL2609 contract reverse spread at high prices [24]. - For polypropylene, in the short term, geopolitical conflicts dominate the market, and in the long term, the contradiction shifts from the cost side to the production mismatch [28]. - For PX, although the short - term increase is large, the valuation is expected to rise as the raw - material shortage logic further develops [30]. - For PTA, it is difficult to enter the de - stocking cycle, and the processing fee is expected to be difficult to rise, but PXN may rise significantly [33]. - For ethylene glycol, the inventory is expected to decline, but the short - term increase is large, so be aware of risks [36]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE main crude oil futures closed down 22.40 yuan/barrel, a decline of 2.94%, at 740.60 yuan/barrel; high - sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 175.00 yuan/ton, a decline of 3.79%, at 4446.00 yuan/ton; low - sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 221.00 yuan/ton, a decline of 4.11%, at 5159.00 yuan/ton [1]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Recommend a bearish strategic allocation, widen the Platts north - south different oil - type spread before Libya's mid - year production increase, short the high - sulfur fuel oil cracking spread, and short the INE - Brent cross - regional spread [2]. 3.2 Methanol - **Market Information**: The main contract changed by 159.00 yuan/ton, reported at 3229 yuan/ton, and the MTO profit changed by 104 yuan [4]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Suggest taking profits at high prices and widening the MTO profit at low prices [5]. 3.3 Urea - **Market Information**: In the spot market, Shandong, Henan, and Northeast China had no price changes; Hubei decreased by 10 yuan/ton; Jiangsu increased by 10 yuan/ton; Shanxi increased by 20 yuan/ton. The main futures contract changed by - 8 yuan/ton, reported at 1874 yuan/ton [7]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Suggest a short - selling allocation, and expect short - term demand support when the substitution valuation reaches the extreme [8]. 3.4 Rubber - **Market Information**: Butadiene was strong in the spot market due to import demand from Japan and South Korea. As of March 26, 2026, the operating load of all - steel tires in Shandong tire enterprises was 69.26%, up 0.04 percentage points from last week and 1.17 percentage points from the same period last year. The operating load of semi - steel tires in domestic tire enterprises was 77.10%, down 0.07 percentage points from last week and 5.52 percentage points from the same period last year. The export orders declined, and the tire inventory pressure increased. As of March 22, 2026, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.36 million tons, a decrease of 0.4 million tons, a decline of 0.3%. The total social inventory of dark - colored rubber was 921,000 tons, an increase of 0.1%. The total social inventory of light - colored rubber was 439,000 tons, a decrease of 1% [10][12]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Suggest flexible trading, taking profits on butadiene rubber out - of - the - money call options, starting to allocate put options, and continuing to hold the long NR main contract and short RU2609 position [14]. 3.5 PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract fell 198 yuan, reported at 5353 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 5220 (- 230) yuan/ton, the basis was - 133 (- 32) yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread was - 106 (+ 2) yuan/ton. The overall operating rate of PVC was 80.9%, up 0.8% month - on - month; the calcium carbide method was 85.2%, up 0.5% month - on - month; the ethylene method was 70.7%, up 1.5% month - on - month. The overall downstream operating rate was 46%, up 4.3% month - on - month. The in - plant inventory was 339,000 tons (- 27,000 tons), and the social inventory was 1.374 million tons (+ 3,000 tons) [16]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Although the short - term fundamentals do not fully reflect the supply shock, the narrative logic turns to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which may offset the negative impact of the cancellation of export tax rebates [18]. 3.6 Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The cost - side East China pure benzene was 8940 yuan/ton, with no change. The closing price of the pure benzene active contract was 8790 yuan/ton, with no change. The pure benzene basis was 150 yuan/ton, an increase of 272 yuan/ton. The spot price of styrene was 10750 yuan/ton, a decrease of 150 yuan/ton; the closing price of the styrene active contract was 10597 yuan/ton, a decrease of 192 yuan/ton; the basis was 153 yuan/ton, an increase of 42 yuan/ton; the BZN spread was - 49.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 33.5 yuan/ton; the EB non - integrated plant profit was - 268.6 yuan/ton, a decrease of 230 yuan/ton; the EB consecutive 1 - consecutive 2 spread was 69 yuan/ton, a decrease of 19 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 69.95%, a decrease of 0.51%. The Jiangsu port inventory was 168,400 tons, an increase of 59,000 tons. The demand - side three - S weighted operating rate was 40.67%, a decrease of 0.27%. The PS operating rate was 51.40%, a decrease of 0.20%, the EPS operating rate was 63.27%, an increase of 2.27%, and the ABS operating rate was 62.60%, a decrease of 4.50% [20]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Due to the continuous geopolitical conflict in the Middle East, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines [21]. 3.7 Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 8614 yuan/ton, a decrease of 190 yuan/ton. The spot price was 8700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 225 yuan/ton. The basis was 86 yuan/ton, a decrease of 35 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 74.57%, a decrease of 1.41% month - on - month. The production enterprise inventory was 587,900 tons, an increase of 19,600 tons month - on - month, and the trader inventory was 56,300 tons, an increase of 1,500 tons month - on - month. The downstream average operating rate was 40%, an increase of 2.41% month - on - month. The LL5 - 9 spread was 149 yuan/ton, an increase of 29 yuan/ton [23]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Wait for the marginal increase in the number of ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz and then short the LL2605 - LL2609 contract reverse spread at high prices [24]. 3.8 Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 9103 yuan/ton, a decrease of 166 yuan/ton. The spot price was 9300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton. The basis was 197 yuan/ton, an increase of 116 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 67.65%, a decrease of 2.72% month - on - month. The production enterprise inventory was 499,700 tons, a decrease of 96,500 tons month - on - month, the trader inventory was 177,800 tons, a decrease of 15,840 tons month - on - month, and the port inventory was 69,600 tons, a decrease of 2,300 tons month - on - month. The downstream average operating rate was 46.36%, an increase of 0.65% month - on - month. The LL - PP spread was - 489 yuan/ton, a decrease of 24 yuan/ton. The PP5 - 9 spread was 366 yuan/ton, an increase of 28 yuan/ton [27]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: In the short term, geopolitical conflicts dominate the market, and in the long term, the contradiction shifts from the cost side to the production mismatch [28]. 3.9 PX - **Market Information**: The PX05 contract fell 140 yuan, reported at 9700 yuan, and the 5 - 7 spread was 18 yuan (+ 20). The Chinese PX load was 84%, a decrease of 0.6% month - on - month; the Asian load was 72.7%, a decrease of 2.1% month - on - month. Some plants restarted or shut down. The PTA load was 81.8%, an increase of 1% month - on - month. In March, South Korea's PX exports to China were 311,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 28,000 tons. The inventory at the end of February was 4.8 million tons, an increase of 160,000 tons month - on - month. The PXN was 120 US dollars (- 11), the South Korean PX - MX was 112 US dollars (- 3), and the naphtha crack spread was 364 US dollars (- 4) [29]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Although the short - term increase is large, the valuation is expected to rise as the raw - material shortage logic further develops [30]. 3.10 PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract fell 84 yuan, reported at 6684 yuan, and the 5 - 9 spread was 96 yuan (+ 4). The PTA load was 81.8%, an increase of 1% month - on - month. The downstream load was 86.8%, a decrease of 0.8% month - on - month. The social inventory on March 27 was 2.8 million tons, an increase of 69,000 tons month - on - month. The on - disk processing fee increased by 8 yuan to 321 yuan [32]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is difficult to enter the de - stocking cycle, and the processing fee is expected to be difficult to rise, but PXN may rise significantly [33]. 3.11 Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract fell 141 yuan, reported at 5218 yuan, and the 5 - 9 spread was 116 yuan (- 9). The ethylene glycol load was 65.8%, a decrease of 0.6% month - on - month. The downstream load was 86.8%, a decrease of 0.8% month - on - month. The import arrival forecast was 117,000 tons, and the East China departure on March 30 was 12,000 tons. The port inventory was 1.075 million tons, an increase of 36,000 tons month - on - month. The naphtha - based production profit was - 3137 yuan, the domestic ethylene - based production profit was - 2727 yuan, and the coal - based production profit was 1176 yuan. The cost - side ethylene rose to 1500 US dollars, and the Yulin pit - mouth bituminous coal powder price rebounded to 690 yuan [35]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The inventory is expected to decline, but the short - term increase is large, so be aware of risks [36].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the report 2. Core Views of the Report - The short - term overseas geopolitical situation may continue to suppress the stock index trend, but after a sharp market decline, the possibility of policy support increases, and the further decline space of the stock index is limited [1] - Multiple factors such as allocation demand, loose monetary policy expectations, supply pressure from fiscal efforts, and profit - taking behavior of trading desks lead to the bond market oscillating [1] - Geopolitical factors in the Middle East cause market sentiment to fluctuate, affecting the prices of various commodities, and most commodities show oscillating trends [1] 3. Summary by Industry Macro - finance - **Stock index**: Short - term geopolitical situation suppresses the trend, but the decline space is limited. Pay attention to long - position layout opportunities after the mitigation of geopolitical disturbances in the Middle East [1] - **Bonds**: Oscillate under the influence of multiple factors [1] Non - ferrous metals - **Copper**: Maintain an oscillating trend due to the complex Middle East situation [1] - **Aluminum**: The price rises due to the attack on UAE aluminum industry. Pay attention to low - buying opportunities as Middle East supply disturbances support the price [1] - **Alumina**: The price is supported to rise, but the supply surplus pattern remains unchanged, and the upward space is limited [1] - **Zinc**: With a weak fundamental outlook, it is considered for short - position allocation. The reversal depends on European natural gas prices [1] - **Nickel**: The price may oscillate at a high level due to Indonesia's policy and cost concerns. Operate with short - term low - buying and control risks [1] - **Stainless steel**: Oscillate. Pay attention to demand acceptance and consider short - term low - buying opportunities [1] - **Tin**: Considered relatively strong in the short term due to potential production impact from diesel supply shortages in major producing countries [1] Precious metals and new energy - **Precious metals**: Concerns about stagflation support price rebounds, but geopolitical risks may cause short - term fluctuations, and prices are expected to oscillate within a range [1] - **Platinum and palladium**: Geopolitical news drives price rebounds, but geopolitical escalation and a strong dollar may suppress prices. They are expected to oscillate widely before the Middle East situation is clear [1] - **Industrial silicon**: Supply resumes production, demand is weak, and explicit inventory is being depleted [1] - **Polysilicon**: Faces liquidity risks [1] - **Lithium carbonate**: Entering the de - stocking cycle, with limited total inventory pressure and a certain discount in futures prices, but demand is average [1] Ferrous metals - **Rebar**: Oscillate. Price drivers come from cost support and low futures price valuations [1] - **Hot - rolled coil**: Supply and demand are both strong and in the de - stocking cycle, but inventory is high. Consider an oscillating approach and gradually enter a new round of positive arbitrage positions [1] - **Iron ore**: The price may oscillate at a high level. Avoid chasing highs or lows and operate within a range [1] - **Coking coal**: There may be a rapid and sharp upward correction, but beware of risks from the development of the war. Exit long positions in time if the Strait is navigable [1] - **Coke**: The logic is the same as that of coking coal [1] Agricultural products - **Palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil**: High crude oil prices and increased US EPA quotas may push up the far - month price center. Pay attention to relevant policies [1] - **Cotton**: Internationally, the global cotton inventory is expected to tighten. Domestically, the price is expected to rise with demand recovery and reduced planting expectations [1] - **Sugar**: Globally, there is a structural surplus. Domestically, the supply is also abundant, and the price is expected to have limited fluctuations with an internal - strong and external - weak pattern [1] - **Corn**: The price is expected to oscillate and correct in the short term, but the correction range is limited [1] - **Soybean**: The May soybean arrival is sufficient, and there is delivery pressure. Wait for the callback to layout long positions in the far - month contracts [1] - **Paper pulp**: The basic situation is weak, and it is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [1] - **Log**: The price is expected to rise due to the impact of the US - Iran war on the outer - market quotation [1] - **Live pigs**: The spot price is gradually stabilizing, and production capacity needs further release [1] Energy and chemicals - **Fuel oil**: Supply - side production cuts, transportation disruptions, and negotiation news disturbances affect the price [1] - **Asphalt**: The impact of Iranian imports on the domestic market is small, and it is relatively weakly affected in the energy sector [1] - **Natural rubber**: Supported by raw material costs, with positive market sentiment, normal climate in the producing areas, and a relatively high futures - spot price difference [1] - **BR rubber**: Affected by the US - Iran situation, prices rise, and the inventory may turn to de - stocking [1] - **PTA**: Affected by crude oil fluctuations and PX supply shortages, the Asian polyester industry chain may face production decline risks [1] - **Ethylene glycol**: Affected by the Middle East situation, the price rises due to raw material shortages [1] - **Crude oil**: Geopolitical factors drive the price to strengthen, and Northeast Asian refineries face supply shortages [1] - **Styrene**: Supply shortages of ethylene and benzene lead to profit inversion for non - integrated producers, and the supply - side crisis intensifies [1] - **Urea**: Export sentiment eases, and there is limited upward space, but there is support from anti - inversion and cost [1] - **Methanol**: Iranian imports are affected, but domestic production is high and inventory is at a historical high [1] - **PE and PP**: Geopolitical tensions limit raw material supply, and the fundamentals are weak [1] - **PVC**: Future prospects are optimistic as capacity is expected to be cleared, but ethylene - based production faces raw material shortages [1] - **PG**: The price is relatively strong, but the demand side is short - term bearish, and there is a divergence between the domestic and international markets [1] Others - **Container shipping on the European route**: Affected by the war, the price is generally stable, and shipping companies have a strong willingness to raise prices after the off - season in March [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, recommend a short - term bearish strategic allocation, widen the spread of different oil grades in the Platts market before Libya's mid - year production increase, and short the high - sulfur fuel oil cracking spread and INE - Brent cross - regional spread [2]. - For methanol, consider that it already includes the current geopolitical premium, suggest taking profits at high prices and widening the MTO profit at low prices [4]. - For urea, expect high production in the first quarter. With supply and demand both strong, suggest short - selling at high prices, and there may be short - term demand support when the substitution valuation reaches an extreme [7]. - For rubber, the market is volatile. Suggest flexible trading, gradually taking profits on butadiene rubber, and holding the position of buying NR and shorting RU2609 [10][13]. - For PVC, in the short term, the price may rise before the Iran issue is resolved, but be cautious of short - term large increases [16][17]. - For pure benzene and styrene, due to geopolitical conflicts, suggest staying on the sidelines as the non - integrated profit of styrene has been repaired and the market is volatile [20]. - For polyethylene, after the traffic in the Strait of Hormuz increases, suggest shorting the LL2605 - LL2609 contract spread at high prices [23]. - For polypropylene, short - term geopolitical conflicts dominate the market, and long - term contradictions shift from cost to production mismatch [26]. - For PX, the load is expected to decline, and it will enter a de - stocking cycle. The valuation is expected to rise, but be cautious of short - term large increases [29]. - For PTA, it is difficult to enter a de - stocking cycle, and the processing fee is hard to rise, but PXN may rise significantly due to geopolitical factors [32]. - For ethylene glycol, the load is expected to decline, imports will decrease, and the port inventory will turn to de - stocking. However, be cautious of short - term large increases [34]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE main crude oil futures rose 12.40 yuan/barrel, or 1.70%, to 740.80 yuan/barrel; high - sulfur fuel oil rose 118.00 yuan/ton, or 2.72%, to 4464.00 yuan/ton; low - sulfur fuel oil rose 140.00 yuan/ton, or 2.79%, to 5157.00 yuan/ton [8]. - **Strategy**: Adopt a bearish strategic allocation, widen the spread of different oil grades, short the high - sulfur fuel oil cracking spread and INE - Brent cross - regional spread [2]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The main contract changed by 130.00 yuan/ton, reported at 3296 yuan/ton, and the MTO profit changed by - 89 yuan [3]. - **Strategy**: Take profits at high prices and widen the MTO profit at low prices [4]. Urea - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in Shandong, Henan, etc. remained unchanged. The overall basis was reported at - 17 yuan/ton. The main contract changed by 2 yuan/ton, reported at 1877 yuan/ton [6]. - **Strategy**: Short - sell at high prices, and there may be short - term demand support when the substitution valuation reaches an extreme [7]. Rubber - **Market Information**: Crude oil declined, RU rebounded. Butadiene was strong. Butadiene rubber production lines had heavy losses and reduced production. The price had room for repair. The overall market changed rapidly [10]. - **Strategy**: Trade flexibly, gradually take profits on butadiene rubber, and hold the position of buying NR and shorting RU2609 [13]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract fell 35 yuan to 5615 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 5450 (- 50) yuan/ton. The basis was - 165 (- 15) yuan/ton. The 5 - 9 spread was - 110 (+ 6) yuan/ton. The overall PVC operating rate was 80.9%, with an increase of 0.8%. Downstream demand was gradually recovering [15]. - **Strategy**: The price may rise before the Iran issue is resolved, but be cautious of short - term large increases [16][17]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The spot price of pure benzene remained unchanged, and the futures price remained unchanged. The basis narrowed. The spot price of styrene fell, and the futures price rose. The basis weakened. The non - integrated profit of styrene was neutral to high, and the supply was relatively abundant [19]. - **Strategy**: Stay on the sidelines due to geopolitical impacts and market volatility [20]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The main contract closed at 8868 yuan/ton, up 101 yuan/ton. The spot price was 8600 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis was - 268 yuan/ton, weakening by 101 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 74.57%, a decrease of 1.41%. The downstream average operating rate was 40%, an increase of 2.41% [22]. - **Strategy**: After the traffic in the Strait of Hormuz increases, short the LL2605 - LL2609 contract spread at high prices [23]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The main contract closed at 9313 yuan/ton, up 193 yuan/ton. The spot price was 9150 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton. The basis was - 163 yuan/ton, weakening by 143 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 67.65%, a decrease of 2.72%. The downstream average operating rate was 46.36%, an increase of 0.65% [25]. - **Strategy**: Short - term geopolitical conflicts dominate the market, and long - term contradictions shift from cost to production mismatch [26]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX05 contract rose 142 yuan to 9916 yuan. The 5 - 7 spread was - 42 (- 54) yuan. The Chinese PX load was 84%, a decrease of 0.6%; the Asian load was 72.7%, a decrease of 2.1%. The PTA load was 81.8%, an increase of 1%. In March, South Korea's PX exports to China decreased by 2.8 tons year - on - year. The inventory at the end of February increased by 16 tons month - on - month [28]. - **Strategy**: The load is expected to decline further, enter a de - stocking cycle, and the valuation is expected to rise, but be cautious of short - term large increases [29]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract rose 98 yuan to 6876 yuan. The 5 - 9 spread was 120 (+ 20) yuan. The PTA load was 81.8%, an increase of 1%. The downstream load was 86.8%, a decrease of 0.8%. The social inventory on March 6 was 285.4 tons. The processing fee on the disk rose 5 yuan to 371 yuan [31]. - **Strategy**: It is difficult to enter a de - stocking cycle, and the processing fee is hard to rise, but PXN may rise significantly due to geopolitical factors [32]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract rose 221 yuan to 5279 yuan. The 5 - 9 spread was 146 (+ 81) yuan. The ethylene glycol load was 65.8%, a decrease of 0.6%. The downstream load was 86.8%, a decrease of 0.8%. The port inventory increased by 2.8 tons to 103.9 tons [33]. - **Strategy**: The load is expected to decline, imports will decrease, and the port inventory will turn to de - stocking. However, be cautious of short - term large increases [34].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, start a bearish strategic allocation, do long on the Platts north - south non - same oil variety spread before Libya's mid - year production increase, and short the high - sulfur fuel oil cracking spread and INE - Brent inter - regional spread [2]. - For methanol, take profit at high prices and do long on the MTO profit at low prices [4]. - For urea, short at high prices, and there may be short - term demand support when the substitution valuation reaches the extreme [7]. - For rubber, trade flexibly according to the market, gradually take profit on butadiene rubber, and continue to hold the position of buying NR main contract and shorting RU2609 [10][12]. - For PVC, expect prices to rise in the short term before the Iranian issue is resolved, but be cautious of large short - term increases [16]. - For pure benzene and styrene, stay on the sidelines due to large geopolitical impacts on the market [19]. - For polyethylene, short the LL2605 - LL2609 contract spread when the number of vessel passages through the Strait of Hormuz increases [22]. - For polypropylene, short - term geopolitical conflicts dominate the market, and long - term contradictions shift from cost - driven to production mismatch [25]. - For PX, expect the valuation to rise as the raw material shortage logic intensifies, but be cautious of large short - term increases [28]. - For PTA, it is difficult to enter a de - stocking cycle, and the processing fee is hard to rise, but PXN may rise significantly [31]. - For ethylene glycol, expect the load to decline, imports to decrease, and inventory to de - stock, but be cautious of large short - term increases [33]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE main crude oil futures rose 5.90 yuan/barrel, or 0.81%, to 733.10 yuan/barrel; high - sulfur fuel oil futures fell 8.00 yuan/ton, or 0.18%, to 4393.00 yuan/ton; low - sulfur fuel oil futures fell 69.00 yuan/ton, or 1.34%, to 5066.00 yuan/ton [1]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Start a bearish strategic allocation, do long on the Platts north - south non - same oil variety spread before Libya's mid - year production increase, short the high - sulfur fuel oil cracking spread, and short the INE - Brent inter - regional spread [2]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The main contract changed by 145.00 yuan/ton, reported at 3202 yuan/ton, and MTO profit changed by - 194 yuan [3]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Take profit at high prices and do long on the MTO profit at low prices [4]. Urea - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu changed by 10 yuan/ton, others remained unchanged; the main contract changed by 12 yuan/ton, reported at 1875 yuan/ton, and the overall basis was - 15 yuan/ton [6]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Short at high prices, and there may be short - term demand support when the substitution valuation reaches the extreme [7]. Rubber - **Market Information**: Crude oil fell, RU rebounded. Butadiene was strong due to import demand from Japan and South Korea. Butadiene rubber production lines had serious losses, reducing the operating rate. The overall market changed rapidly, with different views on the rise and fall [10]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Trade flexibly according to the market, gradually take profit on butadiene rubber, and continue to hold the position of buying NR main contract and shorting RU2609 [12]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract fell 150 yuan to 5703 yuan, the cost of calcium carbide and other raw materials changed, the overall operating rate decreased, the downstream operating rate increased, and both factory and social inventories decreased [14]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Expect prices to rise in the short term before the Iranian issue is resolved, but be cautious of large short - term increases [16]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The spot and futures prices of pure benzene remained unchanged, the basis decreased; the spot and futures prices of styrene fell, the basis weakened. The upstream operating rate decreased, the port inventory increased, and the demand - side operating rate increased [18]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Stay on the sidelines due to large geopolitical impacts on the market [19]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The main contract price rose 52 yuan/ton to 8767 yuan/ton, the spot price rose 100 yuan/ton, the basis strengthened. The upstream operating rate decreased, both production enterprise and trader inventories increased, the downstream operating rate increased, and the LL5 - 9 spread decreased [21]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Short the LL2605 - LL2609 contract spread when the number of vessel passages through the Strait of Hormuz increases [22]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The main contract price rose 145 yuan/ton to 9120 yuan/ton, the spot price rose 125 yuan/ton, the basis weakened. The upstream operating rate decreased, inventories at production enterprises, traders, and ports decreased, the downstream operating rate increased, and the LL - PP and PP5 - 9 spreads decreased [24]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Short - term geopolitical conflicts dominate the market, and long - term contradictions shift from cost - driven to production mismatch [25]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX05 contract rose 272 yuan to 9774 yuan, the 5 - 7 spread decreased. The PX load in China and Asia decreased, some devices restarted or shut down, the PTA load increased, imports from South Korea decreased, and the inventory increased [27]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Expect the valuation to rise as the raw material shortage logic intensifies, but be cautious of large short - term increases [28]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract rose 186 yuan to 6778 yuan, the 5 - 9 spread decreased. The PTA load increased, the downstream load decreased, and the social inventory was 285.4 tons on March 6th. The processing fee rose by 7 yuan to 366 yuan [30]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is difficult to enter a de - stocking cycle, and the processing fee is hard to rise, but PXN may rise significantly [31]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract rose 22 yuan to 5058 yuan, the 5 - 9 spread decreased. The supply - side load decreased, the downstream load decreased, imports were expected to be 11.7 tons, and the port inventory increased by 2.8 tons. The cost of raw materials changed, and the profit of different production methods varied [32]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Expect the load to decline, imports to decrease, and inventory to de - stock, but be cautious of large short - term increases [33].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - For crude oil, start a bearish strategic allocation, do long on the Platts north - south non - same oil variety spread before Libya's mid - year production increase, short the high - sulfur fuel oil cracking spread, and short the INE - Brent cross - regional spread [2]. - For methanol, it already includes the current geopolitical premium, so take profit at high prices and do long on the MTO profit at low prices [4]. - For urea, short at high prices considering the high - price and unfavorable time for demand, and expect short - term demand support when the substitution valuation reaches the extreme [7]. - For rubber, trade flexibly according to the short - term market, set stop - losses, and continue to hold the position of buying NR main contract and shorting RU2609 [12]. - For PVC, it is expected to rise in the short - term before the Iranian issue is resolved, but be cautious of large short - term increases [16]. - For pure benzene and styrene, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines due to high non - integrated profit, wide supply, and large geopolitical influence on the market [19]. - For polyethylene, short the LL2605 - LL2609 contract spread when the number of ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz increases [22]. - For polypropylene, short - term geopolitical conflicts dominate the market, and long - term contradictions shift from cost to production mismatch [25]. - For PX, it is expected to enter a de - stocking cycle, and the valuation is expected to rise, but be cautious of large short - term increases [27]. - For PTA, it is difficult to enter a de - stocking cycle, and the processing fee is hard to rise, but PXN is expected to rise significantly [30]. - For ethylene glycol, it is expected to enter a de - stocking cycle, and the oil - chemical profit is at a low level, but be cautious of large short - term increases [33]. Summary by Directory Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE main crude oil futures closed down 28.00 yuan/barrel, a decline of 3.72%, at 723.90 yuan/barrel; high - sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 300.00 yuan/ton, a decline of 6.45%, at 4348.00 yuan/ton; low - sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 209.00 yuan/ton, a decline of 3.89%, at 5159.00 yuan/ton [1]. - **Strategy**: Start a bearish strategic allocation, do long on the Platts north - south non - same oil variety spread before Libya's mid - year production increase, short the high - sulfur fuel oil cracking spread, and short the INE - Brent cross - regional spread [2]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The main contract changed by (97.00) yuan/ton, reported at 3089 yuan/ton, and the MTO profit changed by 11 yuan [3]. - **Strategy**: Take profit at high prices and do long on the MTO profit at low prices [4]. Urea - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in Shandong changed by 10 yuan/ton, Henan 0 yuan/ton, Hebei 0 yuan/ton, Hubei 0 yuan/ton, Jiangsu 10 yuan/ton, Shanxi 0 yuan/ton, and Northeast 0 yuan/ton. The overall basis was reported at - 3 yuan/ton. The main futures contract changed by - 1 yuan/ton, reported at 1863 yuan/ton [6]. - **Strategy**: Short at high prices, and expect short - term demand support when the substitution valuation reaches the extreme [7]. Rubber - **Market Information**: Crude oil declined while RU rebounded. The overall market changes rapidly. Bulls believe in limited rubber production in Southeast Asia, improved demand in China, and rubber substitution. Bears believe in a marginal decline in macro - expectations, increased supply, and a seasonal demand slump. As of March 19, 2026, the full - steel tire production load of Shandong tire enterprises was 69.22%, up 0.58 percentage points from last week and 0.17 percentage points from the same period last year. The semi - steel tire production load of domestic tire enterprises was 77.17%, up 0.48 percentage points from last week and down 5.57 percentage points from the same period last year. Middle - East export orders were still on hold. As of March 15, 2026, China's natural rubber social inventory was 136.49 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.56 million tons, a decline of 1.13%. The total inventory of dark - colored rubber in China was 92.1 million tons, a decrease of 1.34%. The total inventory of light - colored rubber in China was 44.39 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.68%. The inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao increased by 0.94 million tons to 69.21 million tons. In the spot market, Thai standard mixed rubber was 15350 (+100) yuan, STR20 was reported at 1970 (+30) US dollars, STR20 mixed was 1985 (+45) US dollars, Shandong butadiene was 18000 (+100) yuan, Jiangsu and Zhejiang butadiene was 18300 (+500) yuan, and North China cis - butadiene was 16800 (+500) yuan. The Asian butadiene production rate decreased, and supply decreased, with an expected strong butadiene market [9][10][11]. - **Strategy**: Trade flexibly according to the short - term market, set stop - losses, and continue to hold the position of buying NR main contract and shorting RU2609 [12]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract fell 150 yuan, reported at 5703 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 5500 (-360) yuan/ton, the basis was 203 (-170) yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread was - 98 (-11) yuan/ton. The cost of calcium carbide in Wuhai was reported at 2750 (+15) yuan/ton, the price of semi - coke medium - sized material was 735 (0) yuan/ton, ethylene was 1450 (0) US dollars/ton, and the spot price of caustic soda was 728 (+2) yuan/ton. The overall PVC production rate was 80.1%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.2%; among them, the calcium carbide method was 84.7%, a month - on - month increase of 1.8%; the ethylene method was 69.2%, a month - on - month decrease of 8.4%. The overall downstream production rate was 41.7%, a month - on - month increase of 2.3%. The in - factory inventory was 36.5 million tons (-1.2), and the social inventory was 137.1 million tons (-3.6) [14]. - **Strategy**: It is expected to rise in the short - term before the Iranian issue is resolved, but be cautious of large short - term increases [16]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The cost of East China pure benzene was 8245 yuan/ton, a decrease of 80 yuan/ton; the closing price of the active pure benzene contract was 8313 yuan/ton, a decrease of 80 yuan/ton; the pure benzene basis was - 68 yuan/ton, an increase of 108 yuan/ton. The spot price of styrene was 10200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan/ton; the closing price of the active styrene contract was 10105 yuan/ton, a decrease of 137 yuan/ton; the basis was 95 yuan/ton, a weakening of 63 yuan/ton. The BZN spread was - 47.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 34 yuan/ton. The non - integrated EB device profit was - 212.55 yuan/ton, a decrease of 126.8 yuan/ton. The EB consecutive 1 - consecutive 2 spread was 69 yuan/ton, a narrowing of 19 yuan/ton. The upstream production rate was 70.46%, a decrease of 1.33%. The inventory at Jiangsu ports was 16.25 million tons, an increase of 0.60 million tons. The weighted production rate of the three S products was 40.93%, an increase of 0.60%. The PS production rate was 51.60%, a decrease of 0.10%; the EPS production rate was 61.00%, an increase of 3.22%; the ABS production rate was 67.10%, a decrease of 0.30% [18]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to stay on the sidelines due to high non - integrated profit, wide supply, and large geopolitical influence on the market [19]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 8715 yuan/ton, a decrease of 203 yuan/ton. The spot price was 8500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 350 yuan/ton. The basis was - 215 yuan/ton, a weakening of 147 yuan/ton. The upstream production rate was 80.37%, a month - on - month increase of 0.39%. In terms of weekly inventory, the production enterprise inventory was 56.83 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.71 million tons, and the trader inventory was 5.48 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.48 million tons. The downstream average production rate was 35%, a month - on - month increase of 1.17%. The LL5 - 9 spread was 147 yuan/ton, a month - on - month narrowing of 35 yuan/ton [21]. - **Strategy**: Short the LL2605 - LL2609 contract spread when the number of ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz increases [22]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 8975 yuan/ton, a decrease of 139 yuan/ton. The spot price was 8975 yuan/ton, a decrease of 275 yuan/ton. The basis was 0 yuan/ton, a weakening of 136 yuan/ton. The upstream production rate was 71.5%, a month - on - month increase of 0.17%. In terms of weekly inventory, the production enterprise inventory was 59.62 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.14 million tons, the trader inventory was 19.36 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.244 million tons, and the port inventory was 7.19 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.29 million tons. The downstream average production rate was 46%, a month - on - month increase of 0.29%. The LL - PP spread was - 260 yuan/ton, a month - on - month narrowing of 64 yuan/ton. The PP5 - 9 spread was 383 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 49 yuan/ton [24]. - **Strategy**: Short - term geopolitical conflicts dominate the market, and long - term contradictions shift from cost to production mismatch [25]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX05 contract fell 206 yuan, reported at 9502 yuan, and the 5 - 7 spread was 22 yuan (-18). The PX load in China was 84.6%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.1%; the Asian load was 74.8%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.1%. Some devices had issues such as postponed restart and shutdown. The PTA load was 80.8%, a month - on - month increase of 3.5%. In terms of imports, South Korea's PX exports to China in the first and middle ten - days of March were 31.1 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.8 million tons. The inventory at the end of February was 480 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 16 million tons. The PXN was 139 US dollars (+26), the South Korean PX - MX was 91 US dollars (+4), and the naphtha cracking spread was 385 US dollars (-100) [26]. - **Strategy**: It is expected to enter a de - stocking cycle, and the valuation is expected to rise, but be cautious of large short - term increases [27]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract fell 102 yuan, reported at 6592 yuan, and the 5 - 9 spread was 108 yuan (-2). The PTA load was 80.8%, a month - on - month increase of 3.5%. The downstream load was 87.6%, a month - on - month increase of 0.9%. The terminal texturing load remained flat at 74%, and the loom load increased by 1% to 65%. The social inventory on March 6 was 285.4 million tons. The on - disk processing fee increased by 33 yuan to 359 yuan [29]. - **Strategy**: It is difficult to enter a de - stocking cycle, and the processing fee is hard to rise, but PXN is expected to rise significantly [30]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract fell 83 yuan, reported at 5036 yuan, and the 5 - 9 spread was 96 yuan (+14). The ethylene glycol production rate was 66.5%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.3%; among them, the syngas - based production rate was 72.3%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.4%; the ethylene - based production rate was 63.2%, a month - on - month increase of 0.8%. Some devices had load adjustments. The downstream load was 87.6%, a month - on - month increase of 0.9%. The terminal texturing load remained flat at 74%, and the loom load increased by 1% to 65%. The import arrival forecast was 11.7 million tons, and the East China departure was 0.8 million tons on March 24. The port inventory was 103.9 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.8 million tons. The naphtha - based production profit was - 2680 yuan, the domestic ethylene - based production profit was - 2680 yuan, and the coal - based production profit was 1310 yuan. The cost of ethylene rose to 1450 US dollars, and the price of Yulin pit - mouth bituminous coal powder rebounded to 640 yuan [32]. - **Strategy**: It is expected to enter a de - stocking cycle, and the oil - chemical profit is at a low level, but be cautious of large short - term increases [33].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, start a bearish strategic allocation on crude oil, widen the Platts north - south different - oil - type spread before Libya's mid - year production increase, short the high - sulfur fuel oil cracking spread, and short the INE - Brent cross - regional spread [2]. - For methanol, it has fully included the current geopolitical premium, with no major short - term supply - demand contradictions. Suggest taking profits at high prices and widening the MTO profit at low prices [4]. - For urea, with a strong expectation of high first - quarter production, although there are still positive domestic downstream demand expectations, the domestic contradiction is not prominent. Suggest short - selling at high prices and expect short - term demand support when the alternative valuation of urea reaches the extreme [7]. - For rubber, the market fluctuates greatly. Suggest flexible trading, setting stop - losses, and quick in - and - out operations. Allocate out - of - the - money call options on butadiene rubber and continue to hold the position of buying NR main contract and shorting RU2609 [12]. - For PVC, in the short - term, before the Iranian issue is resolved, the price will rise mainly, but beware of risks due to large short - term increases [16]. - For pure benzene and styrene, due to the ongoing Middle - East geopolitical conflict, suggest empty - position waiting and watching [19]. - For polyethylene, wait for the increase in the number of vessel passages in the Strait of Hormuz and then short the LL2605 - LL2609 contract spread at high prices [22]. - For polypropylene, short - term geopolitical conflicts dominate the market, and long - term contradictions shift from cost - driven to production - mismatch - driven [24]. - For PX, the load is expected to decline further, and it will gradually enter the de - stocking cycle. The valuation is expected to rise, but beware of short - term over - increases [27]. - For PTA, it is difficult to turn into a de - stocking cycle, and the processing fee is hard to rise. The PXN is expected to rise significantly, but beware of short - term over - increases [30]. - For ethylene glycol, the load is expected to decline, imports are expected to decrease significantly, and the port inventory will gradually turn to de - stocking. The valuation is at a historical low, but beware of short - term over - increases [32]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogues Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE main crude oil futures closed down 66.00 yuan/barrel, a decline of 8.20%, at 739.10 yuan/barrel; high - sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 350.00 yuan/ton, a decline of 7.09%, at 4590.00 yuan/ton; low - sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 520.00 yuan/ton, a decline of 8.93%, at 5301.00 yuan/ton [1]. - **Strategy**: Start a bearish strategic allocation on crude oil, widen the Platts north - south different - oil - type spread before Libya's mid - year production increase, short the high - sulfur fuel oil cracking spread, and short the INE - Brent cross - regional spread [2]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The main contract changed by (96.00) yuan/ton, reported at 3139 yuan/ton, and the MTO profit changed by - 43 yuan [3]. - **Strategy**: It has fully included the current geopolitical premium, with no major short - term supply - demand contradictions. Suggest taking profits at high prices and widening the MTO profit at low prices [4]. Urea - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in Shandong decreased by 10 yuan/ton, Jiangsu by 20 yuan/ton, and Shanxi by 10 yuan/ton; others remained unchanged. The overall basis was reported at - 24 yuan/ton. The main futures contract changed by 43 yuan/ton, reported at 1884 yuan/ton [6]. - **Strategy**: With a strong expectation of high first - quarter production, although there are still positive domestic downstream demand expectations, the domestic contradiction is not prominent. Suggest short - selling at high prices and expect short - term demand support when the alternative valuation of urea reaches the extreme [7]. Rubber - **Market Information**: Butadiene rubber rose sharply, while stock - market and economy - sensitive commodities fell. The overall market changed rapidly. The reasons for the rise were macro - bullish expectations and seasonal expectations, while the reasons for the fall were weak demand. As of March 19, 2026, the operating load of all - steel tires of Shandong tire enterprises was 69.22%, up 0.58 percentage points from last week and 0.17 percentage points from the same period last year; the operating load of semi - steel tires of domestic tire enterprises was 77.17%, up 0.48 percentage points from last week and down 5.57 percentage points from the same period last year. Middle - East export orders were still suspended. As of March 15, 2026, China's natural rubber social inventory was 136.49 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.56 tons, a decline of 1.13%. The total inventory of dark - colored rubber in China was 92.1 tons, a decrease of 1.34%. The total inventory of light - colored rubber in China was 44.39 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.68%. The inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao increased by 0.94 tons to 69.21 tons. In the spot market, Thai standard mixed rubber was 15250 (+150) yuan, STR20 was reported at 1945 (+10) US dollars, STR20 mixed was 1945 (+5) US dollars, Shandong butadiene was 17500 (+2000) yuan, Jiangsu and Zhejiang butadiene was 17900 (+1700) yuan, and North China cis - butadiene was 16300 (+1200) yuan. The Asian butadiene operating rate decreased, and supply decreased, with butadiene expected to be strong [9][10][11]. - **Strategy**: The market fluctuates greatly. Suggest flexible trading, setting stop - losses, and quick in - and - out operations. Allocate out - of - the - money call options on butadiene rubber and continue to hold the position of buying NR main contract and shorting RU2609 [12]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract fell 398 yuan, reported at 5853 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 5860 (-160) yuan/ton, the basis was 7 (+238) yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread was - 87 (-51) yuan/ton. The cost - side calcium carbide in Wuhai was quoted at 2735 (+85) yuan/ton, semi - coke medium - sized material price was 735 (0) yuan/ton, ethylene was 1450 (+25) US dollars/ton, and caustic soda spot was 726 (+18) yuan/ton. The overall PVC operating rate was 80.1%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.2%; among them, the calcium - carbide method was 84.7%, a month - on - month increase of 1.8%; the ethylene method was 69.2%, a month - on - month decrease of 8.4%. The overall downstream operating rate was 41.7%, a month - on - month increase of 2.3%. The in - factory inventory was 36.5 tons (-1.2), and the social inventory was 137.1 tons (-3.6) [14]. - **Strategy**: In the short - term, before the Iranian issue is resolved, the price will rise mainly, but beware of risks due to large short - term increases [16]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The cost - side East China pure benzene was 8635 yuan/ton, a decrease of 340 yuan/ton; the pure benzene active contract closing price was 8501 yuan/ton, a decrease of 340 yuan/ton; the pure benzene basis was 134 yuan/ton, an increase of 364 yuan/ton. The spot price of styrene was 11100 yuan/ton, an increase of 800 yuan/ton; the styrene active contract closing price was 10242 yuan/ton, a decrease of 828 yuan/ton; the basis was 858 yuan/ton, an increase of 1628 yuan/ton. The BZN spread was - 47.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 34 yuan/ton. The EB non - integrated device profit was - 202.65 yuan/ton, a decrease of 286.4 yuan/ton. The EB consecutive 1 - consecutive 2 spread was 69 yuan/ton, a decrease of 19 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 70.46%, a decrease of 1.33%. The Jiangsu port inventory was 16.25 tons, an increase of 0.60 tons. The demand - side three - S weighted operating rate was 40.93%, an increase of 0.60%. The PS operating rate was 51.60%, a decrease of 0.10%; the EPS operating rate was 61.00%, an increase of 3.22%; the ABS operating rate was 67.10%, a decrease of 0.30% [18]. - **Strategy**: Due to the ongoing Middle - East geopolitical conflict, suggest empty - position waiting and watching [19]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The main contract closing price was 8918 yuan/ton, a decrease of 605 yuan/ton. The spot price was 8850 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton. The basis was - 68 yuan/ton, an increase of 580 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 80.37%, a month - on - month increase of 0.39%. The weekly inventory of production enterprises was 56.83 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.71 tons; the trader inventory was 5.48 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.48 tons. The downstream average operating rate was 35%, a month - on - month increase of 1.17%. The LL5 - 9 spread was 182 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 29 yuan/ton [21]. - **Strategy**: Wait for the increase in the number of vessel passages in the Strait of Hormuz and then short the LL2605 - LL2609 contract spread at high prices [22]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The main contract closing price was 9114 yuan/ton, a decrease of 679 yuan/ton. The spot price was 9250 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton. The basis was 136 yuan/ton, an increase of 654 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 71.5%, a month - on - month increase of 0.17%. The weekly inventory of production enterprises was 59.62 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.14 tons; the trader inventory was 19.36 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.244 tons; the port inventory was 7.19 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.29 tons. The downstream average operating rate was 46%, a month - on - month increase of 0.29%. The LL - PP spread was - 196 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 74 yuan/ton. The PP5 - 9 spread was 334 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 165 yuan/ton [23]. - **Strategy**: Short - term geopolitical conflicts dominate the market, and long - term contradictions shift from cost - driven to production - mismatch - driven [24]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX05 contract fell 682 yuan, reported at 9708 yuan, and the 5 - 7 spread was 40 (-74) yuan. The Chinese PX load was 84.6%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.1%; the Asian load was 74.8%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.1%. The restart of Daxie was postponed, Zhejiang Petrochemical stopped production, and the Kuwaiti overseas device stopped production. The PTA load was 80.8%, a month - on - month increase of 3.5%. Fuhai Chuang and Fujian Baihong reduced their loads, Jiaxing Petrochemical resumed after a short - stop, Yisheng New Materials planned to reduce its load, and Yihua restarted. In terms of imports, South Korea exported 31.1 tons of PX to China in the first and middle ten - days of March, a year - on - year decrease of 2.8 tons. The inventory at the end of February was 480 tons, a month - on - month increase of 16 tons. In terms of valuation and cost, PXN was 113 US dollars (+32), South Korea's PX - MX was 91 US dollars (+4), and the naphtha cracking spread was 485 US dollars (+110) [26]. - **Strategy**: The load is expected to decline further, and it will gradually enter the de - stocking cycle. The valuation is expected to rise, but beware of short - term over - increases [27]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract fell 440 yuan, reported at 6694 yuan, and the 5 - 9 spread was 110 (-78) yuan. The PTA load was 80.8%, a month - on - month increase of 3.5%. Fuhai Chuang and Fujian Baihong reduced their loads, Jiaxing Petrochemical resumed after a short - stop, Yisheng New Materials planned to reduce its load, and Yihua restarted. The downstream load was 87.6%, a month - on - month increase of 0.9%. The terminal texturing load remained flat at 74%, and the loom load increased by 1% to 65%. The social inventory on March 6 was 285.4 tons. The on - disk processing fee increased by 8 yuan to 326 yuan [29]. - **Strategy**: It is difficult to turn into a de - stocking cycle, and the processing fee is hard to rise. The PXN is expected to rise significantly, but beware of short - term over - increases [30]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract fell 455 yuan, reported at 5119 yuan, and the 5 - 9 spread was 82 (-68) yuan. The ethylene glycol load was 66.5%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.3%, among which the syngas - made was 72.3%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.4%; the ethylene - made load was 63.2%, a month - on - month increase of 0.8%. One line of Zhongkun was under maintenance; in the oil - chemical sector, Fulei and Hainan Refining and Chemical reduced their loads, while Zhejiang Petrochemical and Satellite increased their loads. The downstream load was 87.6%, a month - on - month increase of 0.9%. The terminal texturing load remained flat at 74%, and the loom load increased by 1% to 65%. The import arrival forecast was 11.7 tons, and the East China departure on March 23 was 1.12 tons. The port inventory was 103.9 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.8 tons. In terms of valuation and cost, the naphtha - made profit was - 3074 yuan, the domestic ethylene - made profit was - 2434 yuan, and the coal - made profit was 1310 yuan. The cost - side ethylene rose to 1450 US dollars, and the Yulin pit - mouth steam - coal price rebounded to 640 yuan [31]. - **Strategy**: The load is expected to decline, imports are expected to decrease significantly, and the port inventory will gradually turn to de - stocking. The valuation is at a historical low, but beware of short - term over - increases [32].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content found. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market is significantly affected by the geopolitical conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran, with prices of various commodities fluctuating greatly. The market is constantly adjusting its expectations for the development of the war, and the uncertainty is high [2][3][4]. - Different industries have different supply - demand situations. Some industries are facing supply shortages due to the conflict, while others are affected by demand changes. For example, the energy and chemical industries are strongly affected by supply disruptions, while the agricultural and livestock industries are more affected by factors such as seasonal demand and production capacity [2][66][69]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Selections - **Stainless Steel**: The macro - pressure on stainless steel has improved, and supply - demand is gradually recovering. The raw material cost is strongly supported, and the short - term is expected to maintain a relatively strong shock, with the main contract referring to the 14000 - 14600 range [2][38][40]. - **Methanol**: Affected by the uncertainty of the Middle - East situation, the fluctuation of methanol is magnified. The import reduction dominates the current market, but attention should be paid to the sustainability of demand and policy risks [3][106]. - **Rebar**: The steel price center has risen, and attention should be paid to the pressure at the previous high. The supply and demand of steel are both increasing, and the inventory has entered the destocking cycle [4][50][51]. - **Pig**: The pressure of pig slaughter is large, and attention should be paid to the intensity of supply reduction. The futures and spot prices are expected to continue to bottom out, but the downward space is limited after the futures price falls below 10000 [5][69][70]. 3.2 Macro - finance - **Stock Index Futures**: The A - share market has experienced a significant correction, with the stock index futures following the decline. It is recommended to closely monitor the inflow of broad - based ETFs and wait for the stabilization opportunity [6][7][9]. - **Precious Metals**: The news of the conflict between the US and Iran has repeatedly aggravated market turmoil. The precious metals have rebounded after a sharp decline. In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see for the situation to become clear [10][12][13]. 3.3 Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The situation between the US and Iran may ease, and the copper price has rebounded. The short - term copper price is in the adjustment stage, and the long - term multi - order layout opportunity may be provided by the short - term adjustment [14][17]. - **Alumina**: The speculative demand has increased, and the spot price has continued to rise. The current market is in a state of oversupply, and the short - term strategy is to maintain a short - selling idea at high prices [18][20]. - **Aluminum**: The expectation of the easing of the conflict between the US and Iran has increased, and the downward space of the aluminum price is limited. The short - term aluminum price will maintain a wide - range shock, and the long - term bullish logic still holds [21][23]. - **Zinc**: The social inventory has decreased, and the zinc price has stopped falling and stabilized. The short - term zinc price is under pressure, but the long - term supply - demand fundamentals are relatively stable [26][29]. - **Tin**: Trump's easing of the threat to Iran has improved the market risk sentiment, and the tin price has rebounded at night. If the war is expected to end, long - orders can be considered [29][33][34]. - **Nickel**: The macro - expectation is repeated, and the nickel price fluctuates widely. The short - term is expected to be in a range - bound shock [34][37][38]. - **Stainless Steel**: The macro - pressure has improved, and the supply - demand is gradually recovering. The short - term is expected to maintain a relatively strong shock [38][40]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The macro - expectation is repeated, and the lithium carbonate price fluctuates greatly. The short - term is expected to be in a relatively strong range adjustment [41][44]. - **Polysilicon**: The supply exceeds demand, the spot price has fallen, and the futures are approaching the limit - down. It is recommended to wait and see [45][46][47]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The cost center has moved up, the spot price has risen, and the futures have oscillated upward. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of buying at low prices [47][49]. 3.4 Ferrous Metals - **Steel**: The steel price center has risen, and attention should be paid to the pressure at the previous high. The supply and demand of steel are both increasing, and the inventory has entered the destocking cycle [50][51]. - **Iron Ore**: The macro - disturbance has intensified, and the iron - making production has accelerated. The short - term iron ore main contract is expected to be in a high - level shock [52][53]. - **Coking Coal**: Some coal types have risen, and the overseas energy commodities have fluctuated greatly. It is recommended to go long on the coking coal 2605 contract at low prices [55][57]. - **Coke**: The coke spot price has increased, and the cost has pushed up the increase expectation. It is recommended to go long on the coke 2605 contract at low prices [58][59]. - **Silicon Iron**: The geopolitical conflict continues, and the supply and demand of silicon iron are both increasing. The short - term price is expected to be in a wide - range shock [60][61]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The market sentiment is changeable, and the cost of manganese silicon has increased. The short - term price is expected to be in a wide - range shock [63][65]. 3.5 Agricultural Products - **Meal**: The US soybeans are in a high - level shock, and the domestic spot price has fallen slightly. The short - term domestic soybean meal is expected to be in a high - level shock [66][68]. - **Pig**: The pressure of pig slaughter is large, and attention should be paid to the intensity of supply reduction. The futures and spot prices are expected to continue to bottom out, but the downward space is limited after the futures price falls below 10000 [69][70]. - **Corn**: Driven by the rise of starch, the corn price is in a high - level shock. The short - term rise of the corn price is restricted [71][73]. - **Sugar**: The spot price has increased, but the transaction is average. The short - term sugar futures are expected to maintain a high - level and relatively strong shock [74]. - **Cotton**: The market trading is stable, and the cotton price is adjusted within the range. The short - term cotton price is expected to be in a wide - range shock [77]. - **Egg**: The demand is boosted by stocking, and the egg price is stable and slightly strong. The short - term egg price is expected to maintain a low - level shock [80][81]. - **Oil**: Affected by geopolitical factors, the fluctuation of oil is intensified. Different types of oils have different market trends [82][84]. - **Jujube**: The supply exceeds demand, and the futures price is in a low - level range shock. The price is expected to be in the range of 8500 - 9500 yuan/ton [85][86]. - **Apple**: The market sentiment is weak, and the futures price has fallen from a high level. The 05 contract is expected to maintain a relatively strong shock, and the 10 contract needs to pay attention to the weather during the flowering period [87][88]. 3.6 Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Trump has released a signal of easing, and the oil price has significantly corrected. The short - term oil price is expected to maintain a wide - range shock [90][91]. - **PX**: There are signs of geopolitical easing, and PX has adjusted with the oil price. It is recommended to exit the long - orders and wait and see [92][93]. - **PTA**: There are signs of geopolitical easing, and PTA has adjusted with the oil price. It is recommended to pay attention to the oil price trend [94][95]. - **Short - fiber**: It has limited self - driving force and follows the raw material price fluctuation. It is recommended to pay attention to the passage recovery of the Strait of Hormuz and the downstream cost transmission [96]. - **Bottle Chip**: The supply is expected to be in short supply, and the supply - demand is expected to be tight. It is recommended to go long on the PR2605 call option with a light position [98][99]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Affected by the Middle - East conflict, the cost support is strong, and the destocking amplitude in the near - term is expected to increase. It is recommended to go long on the EG2605 call option with a light position [100]. - **Pure Benzene**: There are signs of geopolitical easing, and pure benzene has adjusted with the oil price. It is recommended to exit the long - orders and wait and see [101][102]. - **Styrene**: There are signs of geopolitical easing, and styrene has adjusted with the oil price. It is recommended to follow the strategy of pure benzene [103][104]. - **LLDPE**: The basis is risk - free, and the transaction is cold. The short - term market is in a wide - range shock [105]. - **PP**: The upstream shutdown and production reduction have increased, and the 05 contract has significantly reduced inventory. It is recommended to gradually take profit on the 5 - 9 positive spread [106]. - **Methanol**: Affected by the uncertainty of the Middle - East situation, the fluctuation of methanol is magnified. It is recommended to reduce the long - orders [3][106]. - **Caustic Soda**: The situation in the Middle - East has escalated, and the caustic soda price is running strongly. The short - term caustic soda price is expected to be strong [107][109]. - **PVC**: The geopolitical disturbance has brought export expectations, and the emotional fluctuation of PVC has been magnified. The short - term PVC price is passively pushed up [110][111]. - **Urea**: The situation in the Middle - East is tense, and the emotional fluctuation of urea has increased. It is recommended to take profit on the long - orders and exit in the short - term [112][114]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply is in a downward trend at a high level, and the cost has boosted the sentiment. The soda ash has rebounded. It is recommended to wait and see on the long - side and pay attention to the 5 - 9 reverse spread [114][118]. - **Glass**: The daily melting volume has continued to decline, and the cost has been boosted. It is recommended to wait and see [114][118]. - **Natural Rubber**: Trump has eased the threat to Iran, the market sentiment has eased, and the rubber price has stopped falling and rebounded. It is recommended to wait and see [119][121]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: Under the tense situation in the Middle - East, the cost support of BR is significantly enhanced, and BR is running strongly. It is recommended to pay attention to the risk of falling after the rise [121][123]. 3.7 Container Shipping to Europe - The geopolitical concern has increased, and the European line has significantly risen and then fallen during the session. It is recommended to wait for the market sentiment to cool down and pay attention to the long - order layout opportunity of the peak - season contract [123][124][126].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report - The report provides daily market information and strategy recommendations for various energy and chemical products, including crude oil, methanol, urea, rubber, PVC, pure benzene & styrene, polyethylene, polypropylene, PX, PTA, and ethylene glycol [2][3][6]. - Due to the ongoing geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, especially the situation in the Strait of Hormuz, it has a significant impact on the supply and price trends of energy and chemical products [18][21]. - Different products have different supply - demand situations and price trends, and corresponding trading strategies are proposed accordingly [2][3][6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE main crude oil futures rose 38.50 yuan/barrel, or 5.41%, to 750.80 yuan/barrel [7]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Adopt a short - term bearish strategic allocation for crude oil; before the mid - year production increase in Libya, widen the price difference between different crude oil varieties at low prices; short the cracking spread of high - sulfur fuel oil; short the INE - Brent cross - region spread [2]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The main contract changed by (43.00) yuan/ton, reported at 3132 yuan/ton, and the MTO profit changed by 11 yuan [3]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Since methanol already includes the current geopolitical premium and there are no major short - term supply - demand contradictions, take profits at high prices [3]. Urea - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in Shandong, Henan, Hebei, Hubei, Jiangsu, and Northeast remained unchanged, while in Shanxi it decreased by 20 yuan/ton. The overall basis was reported at 19 yuan/ton. The main contract changed by - 18 yuan/ton, reported at 1841 yuan/ton [5]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: With a high expectation of the first - quarter production peak, although there are still positive expectations for domestic downstream demand, the domestic contradiction is not prominent. Consider short - selling at high prices. When the alternative valuation of urea reaches the limit, there may be short - term positive support for demand [6]. Rubber - **Market Information**: Concerns about the economic outlook due to the Middle East situation led to a decline in the stock market and sensitive commodities. As of March 19, 2026, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong tire enterprises was 69.22%, and that of semi - steel tires in domestic tire enterprises was 77.17%. China's natural rubber social inventory decreased by 1.13% [9][10]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The market fluctuates greatly, so trade flexibly according to the market, set stop - losses, and enter and exit quickly. Below 16,700 for RU, it has turned bearish technically. Consider allocating out - of - the - money call options for butadiene rubber. Continue to hold the position of buying the main NR contract and short - selling RU2609 [11]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract rose 15 yuan to 5875 yuan. The overall operating rate was 80.1%, with the calcium carbide method at 84.7% and the ethylene method at 69.2%. Factory inventory was 36.5 million tons (- 1.2), and social inventory was 137.1 million tons (- 3.6) [13]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The comprehensive profit of enterprises has rebounded to a high level. Although there is an expectation of passive production cuts in ethylene - based production and seasonal maintenance, and domestic demand is gradually recovering from the off - season, and there is an expectation of overseas production cuts, the short - term trend is upward before the Iranian issue is resolved, but beware of risks due to the large short - term increase [14][15]. Pure Benzene & Styrene - **Market Information**: The spot price of pure benzene remained unchanged, and its futures price also remained unchanged, with the basis widening. The spot price of styrene rose, while the futures price fell, and the basis strengthened. The upstream operating rate was 70.46%, down 1.33%, and the Jiangsu port inventory increased by 0.60 million tons [17]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The non - integrated profit of styrene is moderately high, and the upward valuation repair space is limited. The supply is still relatively abundant, and the port inventory is continuously increasing. It is recommended to wait and see with an empty position [18]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The main contract closed at 8818 yuan/ton, down 98 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 80.37%, up 0.39%. Production enterprise inventory decreased by 0.71 million tons, and trader inventory increased by 0.48 million tons [20]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The futures price fell. The PE valuation still has downward space. After the number of ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz increases marginally, short the LL2605 - LL2609 contract spread at high prices [21]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The main contract closed at 9019 yuan/ton, down 139 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 71.5%, up 0.17%. Production enterprise inventory decreased by 6.14 million tons, trader inventory decreased by 1.244 million tons, and port inventory decreased by 0.29 million tons [23]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The futures price fell. The supply pressure will be alleviated in the first half of 2026. The downstream operating rate rebounds seasonally. The short - term market is dominated by geopolitical conflicts, and the long - term contradiction shifts from the cost side to the production mismatch [24]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX05 contract fell 232 yuan to 9682 yuan. The Chinese PX load was 84.6%, down 0.1%, and the Asian load was 74.8%, down 2.1%. The inventory decreased by 1 million tons month - on - month at the end of January [25]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The PX load is expected to further decline, and the downstream PTA load is expected to rise. PX will gradually enter the de - stocking cycle in March. The valuation is currently moderately low, and it is expected to increase, but beware of risks due to the large short - term increase [26]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract fell 184 yuan to 6650 yuan. The PTA load was 80.8%, up 3.5%. Social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) increased by 2.6 million tons on March 6. The on - disk processing fee fell 32 yuan to 298 yuan [28]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is difficult for PTA to enter the de - stocking cycle, and the processing fee is difficult to rise. The PXN is expected to rise significantly, but beware of risks due to the large short - term increase [29]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract rose 133 yuan to 5353 yuan. The ethylene glycol load was 66.5%, down 0.3%. Port inventory decreased by 5.7 million tons [31]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Overseas plant maintenance volume has increased significantly, and domestic plants are gradually entering the maintenance season. The load is expected to continue to decline, and imports are expected to decrease significantly from March. The port inventory will gradually shift to de - stocking. The current oil - chemical profit has dropped to a historical low level, but beware of risks due to the large short - term increase [32].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The global capital market liquidity continues to be impacted, and domestic small and medium - cap stocks are dragged down. The stock index is expected to continue the shock pattern, and may restart the upward pattern in the future with the easing of external inflation pressure and the recovery of market risk appetite [1]. - Multiple factors such as housing demand, loose monetary policy expectations, supply pressure brought by fiscal efforts, and profit - taking behavior of trading desks lead to the volatile operation of treasury bonds [1]. - Due to the tense situation in the Middle East, the prices of copper, aluminum, and other non - ferrous metals are under pressure, while the price of alumina may fluctuate due to the consideration of export quotas in Guinea. Nickel and stainless steel prices may oscillate, and it is recommended to wait and see [1]. - Precious metals are affected by the energy crisis and interest - rate hike trading, and their prices are under pressure. Platinum and palladium prices are also under pressure in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [1]. - For industrial silicon, the supply side resumes production, but demand is weak and inventory is being depleted. For lithium carbonate, there are factors such as strong energy storage demand, weak power demand, and strong capital risk - aversion sentiment, and the price is in shock [1]. - For black metals, most varieties such as rebar, hot - rolled coil, and iron ore are in shock, and policies and cost support have an impact on prices [1]. - For agricultural products, palm oil is bullish, soybean oil is expected to rise following, and rapeseed oil has potential bullish factors in the short term. Cotton prices are expected to rise in the medium and long term, and sugar prices are expected to have limited fluctuations with an internal - strong and external - weak pattern [1]. - For energy and chemical futures, due to the tense situation in the Middle East, the prices of many varieties such as PTA, ethylene glycol, and styrene are affected, and their prices show different trends [1]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Macro - finance - The stock index is expected to continue the shock pattern, and it is recommended to build long positions in the medium and long term by combining the discount advantage of stock index futures and control positions [1]. - Treasury bonds oscillate under the influence of multiple factors [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - Copper prices may decline, aluminum prices are under pressure, and alumina prices may fluctuate. Zinc and tin prices are affected by the overall sentiment of the non - ferrous sector, and it is recommended to wait and see [1]. - Nickel and stainless steel prices may oscillate, and it is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to low - buying opportunities [1]. Precious Metals and New Energy - Precious metals are affected by the energy crisis and interest - rate hike trading, and platinum and palladium prices are under pressure in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - Industrial silicon has issues of supply - side resumption and weak demand; lithium carbonate has multiple influencing factors and is in shock [1]. Black Metals - Rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, manganese silicon, ferrosilicon, glass, and other varieties are in shock, and policies and cost support have an impact on prices [1]. - Coke and coking coal are affected by geopolitical factors, and it is necessary to pay attention to geopolitical changes [1]. Agricultural Products - Palm oil is bullish, soybean oil is expected to rise following, and rapeseed oil has potential bullish factors in the short term [1]. - Cotton prices are expected to rise in the medium and long term, and sugar prices are expected to have limited fluctuations with an internal - strong and external - weak pattern [1]. - Corn futures are expected to continue the high - level shock pattern, and it is necessary to pay attention to relevant factors [1]. - It is recommended to wait for callbacks to layout long positions in the far - month contracts of soybean meal [1]. - Pulp futures are in a weak fundamental situation and are in shock in a certain price range [1]. - Log futures have large fluctuations, and it is recommended to wait and see [1]. Energy and Chemical Futures - Many varieties such as PTA, ethylene glycol, and styrene are affected by the tense situation in the Middle East, and their prices show different trends [1]. - Urea has limited upward space and cost - side support; methanol has issues of Iranian imports and high domestic inventory [1]. - PE, PP, and PVC are affected by geopolitical factors, and PVC has a relatively optimistic future expectation [1]. - Caustic soda has a weak fundamental situation, and the market sentiment has cooled [1]. - LPG has a complex situation with factors such as price premiums, demand, and inventory, and there is a differentiation between internal and external markets [1]. - For container shipping on the European line, price increases are generally stable, and shipping companies have a strong willingness to stop the decline and raise prices after the off - season in March [1].