能源化工日报 2026-01-30 2026/01/30 原油 【行情资讯】 【策略观点】 我们认为当前估值较低，且甲醇来年格局边际转好，向下空间已然有限。虽然短期利空压力仍 在，但我们认为伊朗近期的地缘不稳定性已带来一定地缘预期，因而具备逢低做多可行性。 油品分析师 从业资格号：F03149203 15805136842 yanzs@wkqh.cn 张正华 橡胶分析师 从业资格号：F270766 交易咨询号：Z0003000 0755-233753333 zhangzh@wkqh.cn INE 主力原油期货收涨 16.80 元/桶，涨幅 3.69%，报 472.50 元/桶；相关成品油主力期货高硫 燃料油收涨 109.00 元/吨，涨幅 4.00%，报 2831.00 元/吨；低硫燃料油收涨 99.00 元/吨，涨 幅 3.09%，报 3307.00 元/吨。 美国 EIA 周度数据出炉，美国原油商业库存去库 2.29 百万桶至 423.75 百万桶，环比去库 0.54%；SPR 补库 0.52 百万桶至 415.00 百万桶，环比补库 0.12%；汽油库存累库 0.22 百万桶 至 257.21 百万桶， ...

宏观日报 | 2026-01-28 上游价格持续回升 中观事件总览 生产行业：1）2025年12月开始中国化工品价格筑底回升，当前化工品价格已出现趋势性反转。截至2026年1月26 日，中国化工品价格指数涨至4084，月环比上涨4.2%，12月化学原料及化学制品制造业、化学纤维制造业PPI同比 降幅均有所收窄，显示行业价格压力正持续缓解。 服务行业：1）新修订的《中华人民共和国药品管理法实施条例》27日公布，将于5月15日起施行。国家药监局表 示，这是条例实施二十多年来，首次全面修订。鼓励创新，是这次修订的一个突出特点。支持以临床价值为导向 研究和创制新药，提升仿制药质量和疗效，明确写进新修订条例的总则。2） 数据来源：iFind，华泰期货研究院 行业总览 上游：1）化工：PTA价格持续上行。2）能源：国际原油、液化天然气价格回升。 中游：1）化工：PX开工率持续高位。2）能源：电厂耗煤量低位延续。3）基建：道路沥青开工低位 下游：1）地产：一、二、三线城市商品房销售季节性回落。2）服务：国内航班班次回升。 风险 经济政策超预期，全球地缘政治冲突 2026年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views - Policy cools market speculative sentiment, leading to stock index oscillations, but short - term adjustment space is limited, and long - term bulls can enter the market at appropriate times. Asset shortage and weak economy benefit bond futures, but the central bank warns of interest - rate risks. With the US suspending key mineral taxes, copper prices are oscillating strongly. Various factors influence different commodities, and specific trading strategies are recommended for each [1]. Summary by Industry and Variety Macro - finance - **Stock Index**: Policy cools speculative sentiment, causing oscillations. Short - term adjustment space is small, and long - term bulls can enter at opportune moments [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable, but the central bank warns of short - term interest - rate risks, and attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: With the US suspending key mineral taxes, short - term concerns ease, and copper prices are oscillating strongly [1]. - **Alumina**: Industry drive is limited, but macro sentiment improves. Domestic supply is strong and demand is weak, and prices are expected to oscillate around the cost line [1]. - **Zinc**: The cost center is stable, and prices fluctuate in a range. Look for high - selling and low - buying opportunities [1]. - **Nickel**: Supply concerns persist due to various factors, and prices are strong in the short term. Long - term high inventory may have a suppressing effect. Short - term buying on dips is recommended [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: Supply concerns persist, raw material prices rise, and social inventory decreases slightly. Futures are at a high level, and there is a risk of a short squeeze. Short - term low - buying is recommended [1]. - **Tin**: Market sentiment improves. Although there is a negative news, supply increase in the first quarter is limited, and there is upward potential [1]. Precious Metals and New Energy - **Precious Metals**: Geopolitical risks and strong fundamentals support prices, but there is a risk of profit - taking during the Fed's meeting [1]. - **Platinum and Palladium**: Macro factors support prices in the short term, but fluctuations are large. In the long term, platinum has a supply - demand gap, and palladium tends to have a loose supply. Unilateral low - buying of platinum or a [long platinum, short palladium] arbitrage strategy is recommended [1]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Northwest production increases, and Southwest production decreases. December production schedules for polysilicon and organic silicon decline [1]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: There are factors such as the off - season for new energy vehicles, strong energy - storage demand, and battery export rush [1]. Black Metals - **Rebar**: Expectations are strong, but spot is weak, and the rally momentum is insufficient. Unilateral long positions should be closed, and positive - spread positions can be considered [1]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: High production and inventory suppress price increases. Unilateral long positions should be closed, and positive - spread positions can be considered [1]. - **Iron Ore**: There is a sector rotation, but there is obvious upward pressure, and chasing long is not recommended [1]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: There is a mix of weak reality and strong expectations. Supply may be affected by energy - consumption control and anti - involution. Short - term sentiment is warm, but medium - term supply is excessive [1]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The market is pessimistic about the coking coal 05 contract. After the first round of coke price increase fails, the price breaks through key supports, and the previous low - buying strategy may change [1]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Main consumer countries start purchasing, and there may be production cuts and inventory reduction in the origin. It is expected to be strongly oscillating [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: Fundamentals are strong, and long - position allocation in oils is recommended. Consider the long Y - short O1 spread [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: There are negative factors, but it is difficult to fall smoothly due to the strength of soybean and palm oils. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - **Cotton**: There is production expectation, and the purchase price supports the cost. Downstream demand has rigid replenishment needs. The market is in a state of "supported but lacking drive" [1]. - **Sugar**: There is a global surplus and increased domestic supply. There is a consensus on short - selling, and cost support is strong if prices fall [1]. - **Corn**: The selling progress in Northeast China is fast, and there is inventory - replenishment demand before the festival. The price is expected to oscillate [1]. - **Soybeans**: Brazil's harvest may bring selling pressure, and Argentina's dry weather may cause short - term speculation. The M05 is expected to be weakly oscillating [1]. - **Paper Pulp**: Affected by the macro decline, it falls but does not break the oscillation range. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - **Logs**: Spot prices rebound, and the downward space for futures is limited. It is expected to oscillate between 760 - 790 yuan/m³ [1]. - **Hogs**: Spot prices stabilize, demand supports, and production capacity needs further release [1]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: OPEC+ suspends production increase, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East rise, and US cold weather boosts demand [1]. - **Asphalt**: Short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, following crude oil. The "14th Five - Year Plan" construction demand may be false, and supply is sufficient, with high profits [1]. - **Natural Rubber**: There is strong raw - material cost support, and the synthetic - rubber price increase drives the sector [1]. - **BR Rubber**: There is strong support for butadiene, and the market's price - support atmosphere strengthens. It operates with high开工 and high inventory [1]. - **PTA and Short - Fibre**: The PX market drives the rise of chemicals, and there is a large inflow of funds. PTA production increases, and short - fibre prices follow costs [1]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Overseas prices rebound, and Middle - East exports decrease. There is an increase in speculative demand [1]. - **Styrene**: The supply - demand fundamentals improve, and prices rebound. The price spread between styrene and benzene widens, and inventory decreases [1]. - **Urea**: Export sentiment eases, and there is limited upward space, but there is support from anti - involution and cost [1]. - **Methanol**: Import is expected to decrease due to the Iranian situation, but there is obvious downstream negative feedback. There are multiple factors in a multi - empty situation [1]. - **PVC**: Global production is expected to be low in 2026, but the fundamentals are poor. There may be a rush for exports, and capacity may be cleared [1]. - **Caustic Soda**: Macro sentiment fades, and the market focuses on fundamentals. Fundamentals are weak, and there is inventory - building pressure [1]. - **LPG**: February CP is expected to rise, and there is cost support. Inventory decreases, and the heating market is expected to start [1]. Others - **Container Shipping on European Routes**: It is expected to peak in mid - January. Airlines are cautious about resuming flights, and there is pre - festival inventory - replenishment demand [1].

1. Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - For crude oil, although the geopolitical premium has disappeared and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, short - term oil prices should not be overly bearish. Maintain a range strategy of buying low and selling high, but currently, wait and see as the price needs to test OPEC's export price - support willingness. [2] - For methanol, with low valuation and an improving outlook next year, the downside is limited. Despite short - term negative pressure, geopolitical instability in Iran brings expectations, and there is feasibility to buy on dips. [3] - For urea, the current situation of internal - external price differences has opened the import window, and with the expected increase in production at the end of January, negative fundamental expectations are coming, so take profits on rallies. [6] - For rubber, with a weak seasonal pattern, it is expected to continue to decline after consolidation. Adopt a bearish approach, short on rebounds if RU2605 breaks below 16000, and partially build positions for the strategy of buying NR main contract and shorting RU2609. [11] - For PVC, the fundamentals are poor with strong supply and weak demand in China. Short - term electricity price expectations and pre - April 1 export rush support the price, but mid - term, short on rallies before significant industry production cuts. [14] - For pure benzene and styrene, the non - integrated profit of styrene is moderately high with limited room for upward valuation repair. As the non - integrated profit has significantly recovered, gradually take profits. [17] - For polyethylene, OPEC+ plans to suspend production growth in Q1 2026, and crude oil prices may have bottomed. Although the spot price has risen, the valuation has room to decline further. With no new capacity planned in H1 2026 and reduced coal - based inventory, the price has support, but demand is in a seasonal downturn. [20] - For polypropylene, the EIA report forecasts a slight reduction in global oil inventory, and the supply surplus may ease. With no new capacity in H1 2026, the supply pressure is relieved. In a context of weak supply and demand, the inventory pressure is high. Wait for the supply - surplus situation to change in Q1 next year for the price to bottom. Long the PP5 - 9 spread on dips. [23] - For PX, it is expected to continue to accumulate inventory before the maintenance season. After the Spring Festival, both PX and its downstream PTA will have strong supply - demand, and there are mid - term opportunities to buy on dips following crude oil. [26] - For PTA, it is expected to enter the Spring Festival inventory - accumulation stage with high short - term maintenance on the supply side and weakening demand due to seasonality. There is room for valuation to rise after the Spring Festival, and look for mid - term buying opportunities. [28] - For ethylene glycol, the overall load is still high, and the inventory - accumulation cycle at ports will continue. There is an expectation of further profit compression and load reduction under new - plant commissioning pressure. Be cautious of rebound risks in the short term due to the tense situation in Iran and cold wave expectations. [30] 3. Summary of Each Product Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE main crude oil futures rose 5.30 yuan/barrel, or 1.20%, to 446.40 yuan/barrel. Related refined product futures, high - sulfur fuel oil rose 48.00 yuan/ton, or 1.89%, to 2592.00 yuan/ton; low - sulfur fuel oil rose 51.00 yuan/ton, or 1.65%, to 3135.00 yuan/ton. [1] - **Strategy**: Maintain a range strategy of buying low and selling high, but wait and see currently. [2] Methanol - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in Jiangsu changed by 5 yuan/ton, Lunan by - 5 yuan/ton, Henan by 0 yuan/ton, Hebei by 0 yuan/ton, and Inner Mongolia by - 2.5 yuan/ton. The main futures contract changed by 45.00 yuan/ton to 2260 yuan/ton, and MTO profit changed by 1 yuan. [3] - **Strategy**: Buy on dips as the valuation is low and the outlook is improving. [3] Urea - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in Shandong changed by 0 yuan/ton, Henan by - 10 yuan/ton, Hebei by 0 yuan/ton, Hubei by 0 yuan/ton, Jiangsu by - 10 yuan/ton, Shanxi by - 20 yuan/ton, and Northeast by 0 yuan/ton. The overall basis was - 36 yuan/ton. The main futures contract changed by - 3 yuan/ton to 1776 yuan/ton. [5] - **Strategy**: Take profits on rallies due to expected negative fundamentals. [6] Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices rebounded with a volatile pattern. The long - side reasons include limited production growth in Southeast Asian rubber forests, a seasonal upward trend in the second half of the year, and improved demand expectations in China. The short - side reasons are uncertain macro expectations, increased supply, and a seasonal demand slump. As of January 15, 2026, the operating rate of Shandong tire enterprises' all - steel tires was 62.84%, up 2.30 percentage points from last week and 2.78 percentage points from the same period last year; the semi - steel tire operating rate was 74.35%, up 6.35 percentage points from last week but down 4.09 percentage points from the same period last year. As of January 11, 2026, China's total natural rubber social inventory was 125.6 million tons, a 1.9% increase. Spot prices: Thai standard mixed rubber was 14700 (+100) yuan, STR20 was 1885 (+15) dollars, etc. [8][9][10] - **Strategy**: Adopt a bearish approach, short on rebounds if RU2605 breaks below 16000, and partially build positions for the strategy of buying NR main contract and shorting RU2609. [11] PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract rose 106 yuan to 4849 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4570 (+70) yuan/ton, the basis was - 279 (- 36) yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread was - 114 (+4) yuan/ton. The overall PVC operating rate was 79.6%, unchanged from the previous period. The demand - side downstream operating rate was 43.9%, down 0.1%. Factory inventory was 31.1 million tons (- 1.7), and social inventory was 114.4 million tons (+3). [13] - **Strategy**: Short on rallies mid - term before significant industry production cuts. [14] Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The spot price of pure benzene in East China was 5760 yuan/ton, unchanged; the active contract closing price was 6000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis was - 240 yuan/ton, narrowing by 195 yuan/ton. The spot price of styrene was 7600 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan/ton; the active contract closing price was 7694 yuan/ton, up 386 yuan/ton; the basis was - 94 yuan/ton, weakening by 136 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 70.86%, down 0.06%; the Jiangsu port inventory was 9.35 million tons, a reduction of 0.71 million tons. The demand - side three - S weighted operating rate was 41.91%, up 1.02%. [16] - **Strategy**: Gradually take profits as the non - integrated profit of styrene has significantly recovered. [17] Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The main contract closing price was 6814 yuan/ton, up 148 yuan/ton; the spot price was 6640 yuan/ton, up 65 yuan/ton; the basis was - 174 yuan/ton, weakening by 83 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 81.56%, up 1.23%. The production enterprise inventory was 35.03 million tons, a reduction of 4.51 million tons; the trader inventory was 2.92 million tons, unchanged. The downstream average operating rate was 41.1%, down 0.11%. The LL5 - 9 spread was - 31 yuan/ton, narrowing by 3 yuan/ton. [19] - **Strategy**: The price has support from reduced coal - based inventory and OPEC+ production suspension, but demand is in a seasonal downturn. [20] Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The main contract closing price was 6624 yuan/ton, up 139 yuan/ton; the spot price was 6660 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton; the basis was 36 yuan/ton, weakening by 39 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 76.61%, down 0.01%. The production enterprise inventory was 43.1 million tons, a reduction of 3.67 million tons; the trader inventory was 19.39 million tons, a reduction of 1.08 million tons; the port inventory was 7.06 million tons, a reduction of 0.05 million tons. The downstream average operating rate was 52.58%, down 0.02%. The LL - PP spread was 190 yuan/ton, widening by 9 yuan/ton; the PP5 - 9 spread was - 25 yuan/ton, widening by 9 yuan/ton. [21][22] - **Strategy**: Wait for the supply - surplus situation to change in Q1 next year for the price to bottom. Long the PP5 - 9 spread on dips. [23] PX - **Market Information**: The PX03 contract rose 184 yuan to 7390 yuan; PX CFR rose 19 dollars to 907 dollars. The basis was - 70 yuan (- 30), and the 3 - 5 spread was - 78 yuan (- 4). The Chinese PX load was 88.9%, down 0.5%; the Asian load was 81%, up 0.4%. In January, South Korea's PX exports to China decreased by 6.8 million tons year - on - year. The inventory at the end of November was 446 million tons, a monthly increase of 6 million tons. [25] - **Strategy**: Look for mid - term buying opportunities following crude oil after the Spring Festival. [26] PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract rose 144 yuan to 5298 yuan; the East China spot price rose 70 yuan to 5155 yuan. The basis was - 71 yuan (- 1), and the 5 - 9 spread was 34 yuan (- 10). The PTA load was 76.6%, up 0.3%. The downstream load was 86.7%, down 1.6%. The social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) on January 16 was 204.5 million tons, an increase of 4 million tons. The spot processing fee was 353 yuan, down 31 yuan; the futures processing fee was 450 yuan, up 23 yuan. [27] - **Strategy**: Expect inventory accumulation during the Spring Festival. Look for mid - term buying opportunities. [28] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract rose 158 yuan to 3847 yuan; the East China spot price rose 90 yuan to 3660 yuan. The basis was - 109 yuan (+1), and the 5 - 9 spread was - 103 yuan (+14). The ethylene glycol load was 73%, down 1.4%. The downstream load was 86.7%, down 1.6%. The import arrival forecast was 20.5 million tons, and the East China port departure on January 21 was 0.76 million tons. The port inventory was 79.5 million tons, a reduction of 0.7 million tons. The naphtha - based profit was - 1059 yuan, the domestic ethylene - based profit was - 862 yuan, and the coal - based profit was - 5 yuan. [29] - **Strategy**: Be cautious of rebound risks in the short term and expect further valuation compression mid - term without significant production cuts. [30]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - For crude oil, it is recommended to take profit on the heavy oil crack spread and go long on crude oil at low levels within the shale oil break - even cost range [1]. - For methanol, considering the low current valuation and the marginal improvement in the pattern next year, there is limited downside space. Due to the geopolitical instability in Iran, there is a feasibility of going long at low levels [2]. - For urea, with the import window opened by the current internal - external price difference and the expected increase in production at the end of January, it is advisable to take profit at high levels [5]. - For rubber, with its weak seasonality, it is expected to continue to decline after consolidation. Adopt a short - selling strategy when RU2605 breaks below 16000, and partially build positions for the strategy of buying NR main contract and short - selling RU2609 [10]. - For PVC, the domestic supply is strong while the demand is weak. In the short term, there is an expectation of short - term export rush due to the cancellation of export tax rebates on April 1. In the medium term, maintain a short - selling strategy [13]. - For pure benzene and styrene, it is advisable to go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene before the first quarter [16]. - For polyethylene, OPEC+ plans to suspend production growth in the first quarter of 2026, and the overall inventory may decline from a high level, which supports the price [18]. - For polypropylene, in the context of weak supply and demand, the overall inventory pressure is high. In the long term, the contradiction has shifted from cost - driven decline to production mismatch. It is advisable to go long on the PP5 - 9 spread at low levels [21]. - For PX, it is expected to maintain an inventory - building pattern before the maintenance season. After the Spring Festival, both supply and demand with downstream PTA are strong. Pay attention to the opportunity of going long at low levels following crude oil [24]. - For PTA, it is expected to enter the Spring Festival inventory - building stage. After the Spring Festival, there is still room for valuation increase. Pay attention to the opportunity of going long at low levels [27]. - For ethylene glycol, the current overall load is still high, and the inventory - building cycle at ports will continue. In the medium term, there is an expectation of further compressing profits and reducing production [30]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE main crude oil futures closed up 2.30 yuan/barrel, or 0.52%, at 440.80 yuan/barrel. High - sulfur fuel oil futures rose 20.00 yuan/ton, or 0.79%, to 2542.00 yuan/ton, and low - sulfur fuel oil futures rose 12.00 yuan/ton, or 0.39%, to 3090.00 yuan/ton. In the weekly data of Fujeirah port, gasoline inventory increased by 0.09 million barrels to 7.07 million barrels, diesel inventory decreased by 0.23 million barrels to 2.50 million barrels, fuel oil inventory decreased by 1.69 million barrels to 8.77 million barrels, and total refined oil inventory decreased by 1.82 million barrels to 18.33 million barrels [1]. - **Strategy View**: Take profit on the heavy oil crack spread and go long on crude oil at low levels within the shale oil break - even cost range [1]. Methanol - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in Jiangsu decreased by 9 yuan/ton, in Lunan increased by 5 yuan/ton, in Henan increased by 5 yuan/ton, in Hebei decreased by 30 yuan/ton, and in Inner Mongolia decreased by 12.5 yuan/ton. The main futures contract rose 10.00 yuan/ton to 2209 yuan/ton, and MTO profit increased by 12 yuan [1]. - **Strategy View**: Considering the low current valuation and the marginal improvement in the pattern next year, there is limited downside space. Due to the geopolitical instability in Iran, there is a feasibility of going long at low levels [2]. Urea - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in Shandong, Henan, Hebei, Hubei, Jiangsu, and Northeast remained unchanged, while in Shanxi it decreased by 10 yuan/ton. The overall basis was reported at - 29 yuan/ton. The main futures contract rose 4 yuan/ton to 1779 yuan/ton [4]. - **Strategy View**: With the import window opened by the current internal - external price difference and the expected increase in production at the end of January, it is advisable to take profit at high levels [5]. Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices rebounded in a volatile manner. Bulls are optimistic due to seasonal expectations and demand expectations, while bears are pessimistic due to weak demand. As of January 15, 2026, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong tire enterprises was 62.84%, up 2.30 percentage points from last week and 2.78 percentage points from the same period last year. The operating rate of semi - steel tires in domestic tire enterprises was 74.35%, up 6.35 percentage points from last week but down 4.09 percentage points from the same period last year. As of January 11, 2026, the total social inventory of natural rubber in China was 125.6 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.4 tons [7][8]. - **Strategy View**: With its weak seasonality, it is expected to continue to decline after consolidation. Adopt a short - selling strategy when RU2605 breaks below 16000, and partially build positions for the strategy of buying NR main contract and short - selling RU2609 [10]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract fell 64 yuan to 4743 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4500 (- 60) yuan/ton, the basis was - 243 (+ 4) yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread was - 118 (0) yuan/ton. The overall PVC operating rate was 79.6%, flat month - on - month. Factory inventory was 31.1 tons (- 1.7), and social inventory was 114.4 tons (+ 3) [12]. - **Strategy View**: The domestic supply is strong while the demand is weak. In the short term, there is an expectation of short - term export rush due to the cancellation of export tax rebates on April 1. In the medium term, maintain a short - selling strategy [13]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The spot price of pure benzene in East China remained unchanged at 5675 yuan/ton, and the active contract closed at 5805 yuan/ton, also unchanged. The spot price of styrene fell 50 yuan/ton to 7350 yuan/ton, and the active contract closed at 7203 yuan/ton, down 92 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 70.86%, down 0.06%. Jiangsu port inventory decreased by 3.17 tons [15]. - **Strategy View**: It is advisable to go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene before the first quarter [16]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The main contract closed at 6666 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan/ton, and the spot price was 6640 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 81.56%, up 1.23% month - on - month. Production enterprise inventory decreased by 4.51 tons, and trader inventory remained unchanged [17]. - **Strategy View**: OPEC+ plans to suspend production growth in the first quarter of 2026, and the overall inventory may decline from a high level, which supports the price [18]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The main contract closed at 6485 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan/ton, and the spot price was 6575 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 76.61%, down 0.01% month - on - month. Production enterprise inventory decreased by 3.67 tons, trader inventory decreased by 1.08 tons, and port inventory decreased by 0.05 tons [19]. - **Strategy View**: In the context of weak supply and demand, the overall inventory pressure is high. In the long term, the contradiction has shifted from cost - driven decline to production mismatch. It is advisable to go long on the PP5 - 9 spread at low levels [21]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX03 contract fell 26 yuan to 7206 yuan. The PX CFR remained unchanged at 888 US dollars. The Chinese PX load was 89.4%, down 1.5% month - on - month, and the Asian load was 80.6%, down 0.6% month - on - month. From mid - to early January, South Korea's PX exports to China were 21.5 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.8 tons [23]. - **Strategy View**: It is expected to maintain an inventory - building pattern before the maintenance season. After the Spring Festival, both supply and demand with downstream PTA are strong. Pay attention to the opportunity of going long at low levels following crude oil [24]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract rose 10 yuan to 5154 yuan, and the East China spot price rose 70 yuan to 5085 yuan. The PTA load was 76.9%, down 1.3% month - on - month. Social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) on January 16 was 204.5 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4 tons [26]. - **Strategy View**: It is expected to enter the Spring Festival inventory - building stage. After the Spring Festival, there is still room for valuation increase. Pay attention to the opportunity of going long at low levels [27]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract rose 15 yuan to 3689 yuan, and the East China spot price fell 31 yuan to 3570 yuan. The ethylene glycol load was 74.4%, up 0.3% month - on - month. Port inventory decreased by 0.7 tons [29]. - **Strategy View**: The current overall load is still high, and the inventory - building cycle at ports will continue. In the medium term, there is an expectation of further compressing profits and reducing production [30].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report comprehensively analyzes various sectors including financial derivatives, precious metals, shipping, and multiple commodity futures. It points out the supply - demand situations, price trends, and investment strategies for each sector. For instance, in the financial derivatives sector, A - share markets are expected to be volatile, and investors are advised to control risks; in the commodity futures sector, different commodities face different supply - demand pressures and price trends, and corresponding investment strategies are proposed accordingly [2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Selections - **Alumina**: The market is in a surplus situation with supply increasing and demand weakening. The price lacks upward momentum and is expected to fluctuate between 2600 - 2900 yuan/ton [2]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Seasonal inventory accumulation is expected, and the price in January is under pressure. Strategies such as EG5 - 9 anti - arbitrage are recommended [3]. - **Coking Coal**: The spot price is strong before the Spring Festival, but the futures price has over - anticipated the increase. After the festival, the market is expected to be loose, and the price is expected to fluctuate between 1000 - 1150 [4]. - **Palm Oil**: Driven by export growth, it attempts to break through resistance levels. Domestically, it may try to break through 8750 yuan and may briefly reach 9000 yuan [5]. - **Gold**: Geopolitical conflicts boost safe - haven demand, and the price is expected to be strong in the long - term. Hold long positions above the 20 - day moving average [6]. 3.2 Financial Futures 3.2.1 Stock Index Futures - **Market Situation**: A - share major indices declined, and the four major stock index futures contracts also fell. The market is divided, and small and medium - sized indices corrected [7][8]. - **News**: The government will implement more active fiscal and monetary policies to promote economic growth and price recovery [8]. - **Funding**: Trading volume increased slightly, and the central bank had a net capital withdrawal. - **Operation Suggestion**: Control portfolio risks, reduce long positions, and wait for re - entry opportunities [9]. 3.2.2 Treasury Bond Futures - **Market Performance**: Treasury bond futures rose, and bond yields generally declined [10][11]. - **Funding**: The central bank had a net capital withdrawal, and the inter - bank market liquidity was generally stable [11]. - **Policy**: The fiscal policy in 2026 will be more active to support economic stability [11]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The bond market may fluctuate in the short - term. Adopt range - bound operations and pay attention to basis - widening strategies [12]. 3.3 Precious Metals - **Market Review**: Geopolitical and trade conflicts led to the selling of US and Japanese bonds, a decline in the US dollar and US stocks, and the precious metals market remained strong [13][14][15]. - **Outlook**: Gold is expected to be strong in the long - term due to geopolitical and trade risks. Silver is expected to have a rising price center, and platinum and palladium will follow gold with narrowed fluctuations [15][16]. 3.4 Shipping Index (European Line) - **Index**: The SCFIS European line index and the SCFI composite index declined [17]. - **Fundamentals**: Container shipping capacity increased, and the demand in the eurozone and the US showed different trends [17]. - **Logic**: The futures price is under pressure from the downward trend of spot prices [17]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Expect short - term fluctuations [17]. 3.5 Non - ferrous Metals 3.5.1 Copper - **Spot**: The spot discount widened, and the inventory continued to accumulate [18][21]. - **Macro**: The US is promoting negotiations on key minerals, which affects the tariff expectations for copper [19][22]. - **Supply**: The copper concentrate TC decreased, and the electrolytic copper production showed different trends in December and is expected to decline slightly in January [19]. - **Demand**: The downstream copper processing industry's operating rate was low, and the terminal demand was weak [20]. - **Logic**: The copper price may return to fundamental pricing, and attention should be paid to the CL premium and LME inventory changes [22]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Wait and observe, and enter long positions after adjustment. Pay attention to the support at 97500 - 98500 [23]. 3.5.2 Alumina - **Spot**: The spot price declined, and the inventory increased weekly by 7.9 tons [23][24]. - **Supply**: The production may decrease slightly in January due to some enterprises' losses [24]. - **Logic**: The market is in surplus, and the price lacks upward momentum. It is expected to fluctuate between 2600 - 2900 yuan/ton [25]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Short at high prices within the range of 2600 - 2900 [25]. 3.5.3 Aluminum - **Spot**: The spot price declined, and the transaction was cold [25]. - **Supply**: The production is expected to increase slightly, and the aluminum - water ratio may continue to decline [26]. - **Demand**: The downstream processing industry's operating rate was low, and the demand was weak [26]. - **Logic**: The price is expected to fluctuate widely between 23000 - 25000 yuan/ton in the short - term [28]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Do not chase high prices. Enter long positions after a pullback within the range of 23000 - 25000 [29]. 3.5.4 Aluminum Alloy - **Spot**: The spot price declined, and the market maintained rigid demand [29]. - **Supply**: The production is expected to decline slightly in January due to raw material shortages [29][30]. - **Demand**: The demand is in a mild recovery, but the terminal demand transmission is not smooth [30]. - **Logic**: The price is expected to fluctuate between 22000 - 24000 yuan/ton in the short - term [31]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Long AD03 and short AL03 for arbitrage within the range of 22000 - 24000 [31]. 3.5.5 Zinc - **Spot**: The spot price declined, and the transaction was general [32]. - **Supply**: The zinc ore supply is tight, and the refined zinc production decreased in December [33]. - **Demand**: The downstream processing industry's operating rate declined, and the demand was weak [34]. - **Logic**: The price is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the zinc ore TC and refined zinc inventory changes [35][36]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Pay attention to the support at 23800, and hold long positions in the long - term. Hold cross - market anti - arbitrage [36]. 3.5.6 Tin - **Spot**: The spot price increased, and the transaction was general [36]. - **Supply**: The tin ore and tin ingot import and export showed different trends in December [37]. - **Demand**: The downstream tin - soldering industry's operating rate declined, and the terminal demand was divided [38]. - **Logic**: The price is affected by market sentiment and is expected to be volatile. Consider low - buying after the sentiment stabilizes [39]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Wait and observe [39]. 3.5.7 Nickel - **Spot**: The spot price increased, and the transaction was weak [39]. - **Supply**: The refined nickel production increased, and the market supply was sufficient [40]. - **Demand**: The demand in different sectors showed different trends, and the stainless - steel demand was general [40]. - **Logic**: The price is expected to fluctuate widely between 138000 - 148000 [42]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Conduct range - bound operations [42]. 3.5.8 Stainless Steel - **Spot**: The spot price was stable, and the basis declined [43]. - **Raw Materials**: The prices of nickel ore and ferronickel increased, and the price of ferrochrome was firm [43]. - **Supply**: The production is expected to increase in January, and the supply is relatively loose [44]. - **Logic**: The price is expected to fluctuate between 13800 - 14600, and attention should be paid to the ore news and downstream inventory [45]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Operate within the range of 13800 - 14600 [46]. 3.5.9 Lithium Carbonate - **Spot**: The spot price increased, and the market sentiment was boosted [46][47]. - **Supply**: The production is expected to decline in January due to pre - holiday maintenance [47]. - **Demand**: The demand is expected to be optimistic, but the 1 - month demand may decline [48]. - **Logic**: The futures price increased sharply due to supply - side speculation. The price is expected to be strong in the short - term [49]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Wait and observe in the short - term, and enter long positions at low prices in the medium - term [50]. 3.5.10 Polysilicon - **Spot Price**: The spot price increased slightly [50]. - **Supply**: The production is expected to decline in January and the first quarter of 2026 [50]. - **Demand**: The demand may be improved by export demand, and the silicon wafer inventory decreased [51]. - **Logic**: The price is expected to be supported at 48000 yuan/ton. Wait and observe and consider hedging [52]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Wait and observe at high - level fluctuations [52]. 3.5.11 Industrial Silicon - **Spot Price**: The spot price was stable [53]. - **Supply**: The production is expected to decline in January and February [53]. - **Demand**: The demand is expected to decline in January, and attention should be paid to the polysilicon production [53]. - **Logic**: The price is expected to fluctuate between 8200 - 9200 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to the demand changes [55]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Wait and observe at low - level fluctuations and pay attention to the production cut [55]. 3.6 Ferrous Metals 3.6.1 Steel - **Spot**: The spot price declined, and the basis of rebar strengthened [56]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cost decreased, and the profit increased. The profit order is billet > hot - rolled coil > rebar [56]. - **Supply**: The production is expected to decline seasonally [56][57]. - **Demand**: The demand declined seasonally, and the post - holiday demand elasticity is limited [57]. - **Logic**: The steel price may decline due to cost reduction. The rebar and hot - rolled coil are expected to fluctuate within certain ranges [57]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Exit long positions on the steel - ore ratio at high prices and hold long positions on the hot - rolled coil - rebar spread [57]. 3.6.2 Iron Ore - **Spot**: The spot price declined [58]. - **Supply**: The global iron ore shipment decreased, and the port inventory increased [58][59]. - **Demand**: The steel mill's demand was weak, and the iron - making production declined [58]. - **Logic**: The price is expected to be weak, and attention should be paid to the pre - holiday restocking [59]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Conduct range - bound operations within the range of 770 - 830 [60]. 3.6.3 Coking Coal - **Spot**: The Shanxi coal price increased more than it decreased, and the Mongolian coal price declined [61][63]. - **Supply**: The coal mine production increased slightly, and the port inventory decreased slightly [63]. - **Demand**: The steel mill's demand for replenishment increased, and the coking plant's profit declined [63]. - **Logic**: The price is expected to be weak after the holiday, and the price is expected to fluctuate between 1000 - 1150 [63]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Consider short - term weakness and operate within the range of 1000 - 1150 [63]. 3.6.4 Coke - **Spot**: The mainstream coke enterprises started to raise prices, and the port price declined [64][65]. - **Supply**: The production decreased slightly, and the coking plant's profit was under pressure [64][65]. - **Demand**: The steel mill's demand increased, and the iron - making production increased [65]. - **Logic**: The price is expected to be weak after the holiday, and the price is expected to fluctuate between 1600 - 1750 [65]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Consider short - term weakness and operate within the range of 1600 - 1750 [65]. 3.6.5 Ferrosilicon - **Spot**: The spot price was stable [66]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cost was stable, and the profit was negative [66]. - **Supply**: The production decreased slightly, and the output was at a low level [66][67]. - **Demand**: The demand from the steel industry and non - steel industries declined [67]. - **Logic**: The price is expected to fluctuate between 5300 - 5800, and attention should be paid to macro and policy factors [67]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Wait and observe and pay attention to the price range of 5300 - 5800 [67]. 3.6.6 Manganese Silicon - **Spot**: The spot price declined slightly [69]. - **Cost**: The cost was relatively high, and the profit was negative [69]. - **Supply**: The production decreased slightly, and the output was at a low level [70][71]. - **Demand**: The demand from the steel industry declined, and the inventory was high [71]. - **Logic**: The price is expected to fluctuate between 5600 - 6000, and attention should be paid to macro and policy factors [71]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Wait and observe and pay attention to the price range of 5600 - 6000 [71]. 3.7 Agricultural Products 3.7.1 Meal - **Spot Market**: The soybean meal price was stable, and the rapeseed meal price increased [72]. - **Fundamentals**: Brazilian soybean production and export are affected by weather and other factors [73]. - **Outlook**: The domestic soybean and soybean meal supply is sufficient, and the price is expected to fluctuate around 2700 [74]. 3.7.2 Live Pigs - **Spot Situation**: The spot price declined slightly [75]. - **Market Data**: The breeding profit improved, and the slaughter weight increased [75]. - **Outlook**: The market is in a game between supply and demand, and the price is expected to fluctuate at the bottom [76]. 3.7.3 Corn - **Spot Price**: The price was stable in most areas [77]. - **Fundamentals**: The grain inventory in Guangzhou Port increased [78]. - **Outlook**: The price is supported by supply shortage and pre - holiday demand but limited by policy supply. It is expected to fluctuate at a high level [79]. 3.7.4 Sugar - **Analysis**: The international sugar supply is sufficient, and the domestic market is in the pre - holiday stocking period. The price is expected to be weak [80]. - **Fundamentals**: The Indian sugar production increased, and the Brazilian sugar production decreased [80]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Wait and observe in the short - term [80]. 3.7.5 Cotton - **Analysis**: The ICE cotton price is under pressure, and the domestic cotton supply is sufficient. The price is expected to be adjusted [82]. - **Fundamentals**: The US cotton inspection progress is behind, and the domestic cotton commercial inventory is increasing [82]. - **Outlook**: The price is expected to continue to be adjusted [82]. 3.7.6 Eggs - **Spot Market**: The price was stable in most areas, and the supply and demand were balanced [84]. - **Supply**: The inventory of laying hens is stable, and the inventory pressure is relieved [84]. - **Demand**: The trader's purchasing is cautious, and the inventory has increased [84]. - **Outlook**: The price is expected to fluctuate within a range [84]. 3.7.7 Oils - **Analysis**: The palm oil price is boosted by exports, and the soybean oil and rapeseed oil prices are affected by multiple factors. The prices are expected to fluctuate [85][87][88]. - **Fundamentals**: The Malaysian palm oil export and reference price change, and the US soybean oil supply is sufficient [86][88]. - **Outlook**: The palm oil may break through resistance levels, and the

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For crude oil, take profit on heavy oil cracks and buy crude oil on dips within the shale oil break - even cost range [1] - For methanol, with low current valuation and an improving outlook next year, it has the feasibility of buying on dips despite short - term negative pressure [2] - For urea, due to the opening of the import window and the expected increase in production at the end of January, take profit on rallies [5] - For rubber, expect it to continue to decline after consolidation, maintain a short - term short - selling mindset if RU2605 breaks below 16000, and partially build positions for the strategy of buying NR main contract and shorting RU2609 [10] - For PVC, in the short term, electricity price expectations and export rush support it, but in the medium term, adopt a strategy of shorting on rallies before substantial production cuts in the industry [13] - For pure benzene and styrene, it is advisable to go long on non - integrated styrene profits before the first quarter [16] - For polyethylene, although the futures price is falling, the overall inventory may decline from a high level, and the price may be supported [19] - For polypropylene, in the short - term, there is no prominent contradiction, and in the long - term, go long on the PP5 - 9 spread on dips [21] - For PX, expect it to maintain a stock - building pattern before the maintenance season, and pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following crude oil in the medium term [23] - For PTA, expect it to enter the Spring Festival stock - building stage, and pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips in the medium term [26] - For ethylene glycol, the supply - demand pattern needs to be improved by increasing production cuts, and in the medium term, expect further valuation compression without further domestic production cuts [30] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE main crude oil futures closed down 5.60 yuan/barrel, or 1.27%, at 437.00 yuan/barrel. Chinese crude oil weekly data showed inventory accumulation. Crude oil arrival inventory increased by 5.70 million barrels to 210.81 million barrels, gasoline commercial inventory increased by 0.90 million barrels to 92.37 million barrels, diesel commercial inventory increased by 2.00 million barrels to 95.56 million barrels, and total refined oil commercial inventory increased by 2.90 million barrels to 187.93 million barrels [1] - **Strategy View**: Take profit on heavy oil cracks and buy crude oil on dips within the shale oil break - even cost range [1] Methanol - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices showed changes, with Jiangsu down 13 yuan/ton, Lunan down 5 yuan/ton, etc. The main contract decreased by 27.00 yuan/ton to 2206 yuan/ton, and MTO profit increased by 64 yuan [1][2] - **Strategy View**: With low current valuation and an improving outlook next year, it has the feasibility of buying on dips despite short - term negative pressure [2] Urea - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices changed, with Shandong down 20 yuan/ton, Henan down 10 yuan/ton, etc. The main contract increased by 3 yuan/ton to 1775 yuan/ton, and the overall basis was reported at - 25 yuan/ton [4] - **Strategy View**: Due to the opening of the import window and the expected increase in production at the end of January, take profit on rallies [5] Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices fluctuated weakly with a technical bearish signal. Bulls and bears had different views. Tire factory operating rates changed, and the total social inventory of natural rubber in China increased. Spot prices of related products also changed [7][8][9] - **Strategy View**: Expect it to continue to decline after consolidation, maintain a short - term short - selling mindset if RU2605 breaks below 16000, and partially build positions for the strategy of buying NR main contract and shorting RU2609 [10] PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract rose 6 yuan to 4807 yuan, and the basis, 5 - 9 spread, etc. changed. Cost - end prices were stable, and the overall operating rate was 79.6%. Factory and social inventories changed [12] - **Strategy View**: In the short term, electricity price expectations and export rush support it, but in the medium term, adopt a strategy of shorting on rallies before substantial production cuts in the industry [13] Pure Benzene & Styrene - **Market Information**: In terms of fundamentals, pure benzene spot and futures prices were stable, while styrene spot prices rose and futures prices fell. Supply - side operating rates and inventories changed, as did demand - side operating rates [15] - **Strategy View**: It is advisable to go long on non - integrated styrene profits before the first quarter [16] Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The main contract closed at 6640 yuan/ton, down 27 yuan/ton, and the spot price was 6625 yuan/ton, down 125 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate increased, and inventories decreased. The downstream average operating rate decreased [18] - **Strategy View**: Although the futures price is falling, the overall inventory may decline from a high level, and the price may be supported [19] Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The main contract closed at 6461 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan/ton, and the spot price was 6550 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate decreased slightly, and inventories decreased. The downstream average operating rate decreased slightly [20] - **Strategy View**: In the short - term, there is no prominent contradiction, and in the long - term, go long on the PP5 - 9 spread on dips [21] PX - **Market Information**: The PX03 contract rose 126 yuan to 7232 yuan, and the CFR price rose 9 dollars to 888 dollars. PX and PTA operating rates changed, and import and inventory data were reported [22] - **Strategy View**: Expect it to maintain a stock - building pattern before the maintenance season, and pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following crude oil in the medium term [23] PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract rose 114 yuan to 5144 yuan, and the spot price rose 35 yuan to 5015 yuan. PTA and downstream operating rates changed, and inventory decreased. Processing fees increased [25] - **Strategy View**: Expect it to enter the Spring Festival stock - building stage, and pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips in the medium term [26] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract fell 81 yuan to 3661 yuan, and the spot price fell 36 yuan to 3601 yuan. Supply - side operating rates changed, and downstream operating rates decreased. Import and inventory data were reported, and cost - end prices changed [29] - **Strategy View**: The supply - demand pattern needs to be improved by increasing production cuts, and in the medium term, expect further valuation compression without further domestic production cuts [30]

Industry Investment Ratings - Macrofinance: Index (Long-term bullish, short-term shock adjustment), Treasury bonds (Shock), Copper (Shock), Aluminum (Shock), Alumina (Shock), Zinc (Shock), Nickel (High-level shock), Stainless steel (High-level shock), Tin (Potential for increase), Precious metals (High-level wide-range shock), Industrial silicon and polysilicon (Bearish), Lithium carbonate (No clear rating), Rebar (Shock), Iron ore (Shock), Coke (Shock), Coking coal (Bullish), Anthracite (Bullish), Palm oil (Shock), Soybean oil (Bullish), Rapeseed oil (Bearish), Cotton (Shock), Sugar (Bearish), Corn (Shock), Soybeans (Bearish), Pulp (Shock), Logs (Shock), Live pigs (Shock), Fuel oil (Shock), Bitumen (Shock), BR rubber (Bullish), PTA (Shock), Ethylene glycol (Shock), Styrene (Bearish), Urea (Shock), PF (Shock), PVC (Shock), LPG (Bullish), Container shipping European line (Shock) [1] Core Views - The policy aims for a "slow bull" in the stock index rather than suppressing the market. The short-term shock adjustment space is expected to be limited, and long-term bulls can choose opportunities to layout. Asset shortages and a weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest rate risks. The downstream demand is relatively pressured, and with the US suspending the tax on key minerals, the short-term concern about copper hoarding has eased, causing copper prices to fall from high levels. The supply of nickel ore remains tight, but the continuous accumulation of global nickel inventories may restrict the rise of nickel prices. The prices of precious metals are expected to shift to high-level wide-range shocks. The prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon are bearish. The prices of black metals are affected by weak reality and strong expectations. The prices of agricultural products are affected by various factors such as supply and demand, policies, and weather. The prices of energy and chemical products are affected by factors such as supply and demand, geopolitical situations, and cost support [1] Summary by Directory Macrofinance - Index: The stock index rose strongly in the first half of the week and then adjusted with policy regulation. The short-term shock adjustment space is limited, and long-term bulls can choose opportunities to layout [1] - Treasury bonds: Asset shortages and a weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest rate risks. Pay attention to the interest rate decision of the Bank of Japan [1] Non-ferrous Metals - Copper: The downstream demand is relatively pressured, and with the US suspending the tax on key minerals, the short-term concern about copper hoarding has eased, causing copper prices to fall from high levels [1] - Aluminum: The recent industrial drive is limited, and the macro sentiment has weakened, causing aluminum prices to fall from high levels [1] - Alumina: The alumina production capacity still has a large release space, and the industrial side weakens the price. However, the current price is basically near the cost line, and the price is expected to fluctuate [1] - Zinc: The cost center of the zinc fundamentals is stable, but the inventory pressure is obvious. The current price has insufficient fundamental support, and the zinc price fluctuates in a range under the repeated macro sentiment [1] - Nickel: The supply of nickel ore remains tight, but the continuous accumulation of global nickel inventories may restrict the rise of nickel prices. The short-term nickel price fluctuates at a high level and is still affected by the resonance of the non-ferrous metal sector. It is recommended to pay attention to the policy changes in Indonesia, the macro sentiment, and the futures positions [1] - Stainless steel: The price of raw material nickel iron continues to rise, the social inventory of stainless steel decreases slightly, and the steel mill's production schedule in January increases. Pay attention to the actual production situation of the steel mill. The stainless steel futures fluctuate at a high level, and it is recommended to go long at low levels in the short term [1] - Tin: The short-term macro sentiment is repeated, and the tin price has corrected. However, the supply vulnerability of tin ore still exists, and it still has the driving force to rise. Pay attention to the opportunity of low absorption [1] - Precious metals: The geopolitical situation has cooled down, and the rise of precious metal prices has slowed down. The silver price has fallen under pressure. The short-term gold and silver prices are expected to shift to high-level wide-range shocks. In the long term, it is recommended to allocate platinum at low levels or choose the arbitrage strategy of [long platinum, short palladium] [1] Black Metals - Rebar: The expectation is strong, but the spot is weak, and the sentiment transmission to the spot is not smooth. The continuous rise kinetic energy is insufficient. Unilaterally long orders should leave the market and wait and see; participate in the positive arbitrage position in the spot and futures [1] - Iron ore: The sector rotates, but the upper pressure of iron ore is obvious. It is not recommended to chase long at this position. The weak reality and strong expectation are intertwined. The actual supply and demand continue to be weak, and the energy consumption double control and anti-involution may disturb the supply [1] - Coke: The short-term market sentiment warms up, and the supply and demand are supported, but the medium-term supply and demand continue to be surplus, and the price is under pressure [1] - Coking coal: If the expectation of "capacity reduction" continues to ferment and the spot replenishes the inventory before the Spring Festival, coking coal may still have room to rise, but the actual rise space is difficult to judge, and the volatility increases after a large rise. It is necessary to be cautious [1] - Anthracite: The logic is the same as that of coking coal [1] Agricultural Products - Cotton: The domestic new crop production expectation is strong, but the purchase price of seed cotton supports the cost of lint. The downstream start-up maintains a low level, but the yarn mill inventory is not high, and there is a rigid replenishment demand. The cotton market is currently in a situation of "supported but no driving force." Pay attention to the tone of the No. 1 Central Document on direct subsidy prices and cotton planting areas in the first quarter of next year, the intention of cotton planting areas next year, the weather during the planting period, and the peak season demand from March to April [1] - Sugar: The global sugar is in surplus, and the domestic new crop supply increases. The short consensus is relatively consistent. If the disk continues to fall, the lower cost support is strong, but the short-term fundamentals lack continuous driving force. Pay attention to the changes in the capital side [1] - Corn: The grain sales progress of Northeast corn is relatively fast, the port inventory is low, and the middle and lower reaches have a certain replenishment demand before the festival. The short-term spot is still relatively strong, and the disk is expected to fluctuate in a range [1] - Soybeans: With the progress of the Brazilian harvest, the Brazilian CNF premium is expected to reflect the selling pressure of the soybean harvest. Coupled with the pressure on the rapeseed sector from the Sino-Canadian easing, the MO5 is expected to be under pressure, and the MO5 - M09 is expected to be in a reverse arbitrage [1] - Pulp: The pulp fell today due to the decline of the commodity macro. The overall did not break through the shock range. The short-term commodity sentiment fluctuates greatly. It is recommended to wait and see cautiously [1] - Logs: The spot price of logs has recently shown a certain sign of bottoming out and rebounding. It is expected that the further decline space of the futures price is limited. However, the external quotation in January still shows a slight decline, and the spot and futures markets of logs lack driving factors for rising. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 760 - 790 yuan/m³ [1] - Live pigs: The spot and futures of live pigs gradually stabilize. The demand support and the unsold slaughter weight, and the production capacity still needs to be further released [1] Energy and Chemical Products - Fuel oil: OPEC+ suspends production increase until the end of 2026. The uncertainty of the Russia-Ukraine peace agreement affects. The US sanctions the Venezuelan crude oil export. The short-term supply and demand contradiction is not prominent, and it follows the crude oil. The demand for the 14th Five-Year Plan rush work is likely to be falsified, and the supply of Ma Rui crude oil is not short. The asphalt profit is high [1] - Bitumen: The raw material cost support is strong. The spot-futures price difference rebounds greatly. The intermediate inventory increases [1] - BR rubber: The disk position decreases, and the new warehouse receipts increase. The BR increase slows down periodically. The spot leads the rise to repair the basis, and the BR continues to pay attention to the upward driving force above 12,000. The BD/BR listing price continues to be raised, and the processing profit of butadiene rubber narrows. The overseas cracking device capacity is cleared, which is beneficial to the long-term export expectation of domestic butadiene. The naphtha tax also has a positive support for the butadiene price. Fundamentally, butadiene rubber maintains high operation and high inventory, and the transaction center is average. Styrene-butadiene rubber is relatively better than butadiene rubber [1] - PTA: The PX market has experienced a rapid rise, and this round of rise is not due to a fundamental change. The PX fundamentals are indeed supported, and the market is expected to continue to tighten in 2026, driven by the new PTA production capacity in India and the organic growth of demand. The domestic PTA maintains high operation. The gasoline price difference is still at a high level, which supports the aromatics [1] - Ethylene glycol: The market spreads the news that two sets of MEG devices in Taiwan, China, with a total annual production capacity of 720,000 tons, plan to stop production next month due to efficiency reasons. Ethylene glycol rebounded rapidly during the continuous decline due to the stimulation of supply-side news. The current polyester downstream start-up rate maintains above 90%, and the demand performance slightly exceeds expectations [1] - Styrene: The Asian styrene market is generally stable. The suppliers are reluctant to reduce prices due to continuous losses, while the buyers insist on pressing prices due to the weak downstream polymer demand and profit compression. Although the downstream demand is weak, the domestic market has a bullish sentiment due to the export support. The market is in a weak balance state, and the short-term upward driving force needs to pay attention to the drive of the overseas market [1] - Urea: The export sentiment eases slightly, and the domestic demand is insufficient. The upper space is limited. The lower has the support of anti-involution and the cost side [1] - PF: The geopolitical conflict intensifies, and the crude oil has a rising risk. The maintenance decreases, and the operation load is at a high level. The long-distance arrival increases the supply. The downstream demand operation weakens. The price returns to a reasonable range [1] - PVC: There is less global production in 2026, and the future expectation is optimistic. The fundamentals are poor. The export tax rebate is cancelled, and there may be a phenomenon of rushing to export later. The differential electricity price in the northwest region is expected to be implemented, forcing the PVC production capacity to be cleared [1] - LPG: The January CP rises unexpectedly, and the cost support of imported gas is strong. The geopolitical conflict in the Middle East escalates, and the short-term risk premium rises. The EIA weekly C3 inventory accumulation trend slows down, and it is expected to gradually turn to destocking. The domestic port inventory also decreases [1] - Container shipping European line: It is expected to peak in mid-January. The airlines are still cautious in their tentative re-navigation. The pre-festival replenishment demand still exists [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - For urea, the current situation of internal - external price differences has opened the import window, and with the expected improvement in production at the end of January, negative fundamental expectations are approaching, so it is recommended to take profits at high prices [3]. - For methanol, the current valuation is low, and the outlook for the coming year is marginally improving with limited downside. Despite short - term negative pressures, geopolitical instability in Iran has brought certain geopolitical expectations, making it feasible to buy on dips [6]. - For crude oil, although the geopolitical premium has disappeared and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, oil prices should not be overly shorted in the short term. A range - trading strategy of buying low and selling high is maintained, but it is recommended to wait and see in the short term to verify OPEC's export price - support willingness [9]. - For rubber, the seasonal pattern is weak. A short - term bearish view is adopted. If RU2605 falls below 16000, a short - term short - selling strategy can be considered, and partial position - building is suggested for the strategy of buying NR main contract and short - selling RU2609 [14]. - For PVC, fundamentally, corporate comprehensive profits are at a moderately low level. Supply reduction is limited with production at a historical high, and domestic demand is entering the off - season. Although there may be short - term export rush before April 1st due to the cancellation of export tax rebates, the overall situation of strong supply and weak demand persists, and a short - term long position is supported by electricity price expectations and export rush, while a short - selling strategy on rallies is recommended in the medium term [16]. - For pure benzene and styrene, currently, styrene non - integrated profits are moderately low with large upward valuation repair space. The supply of pure benzene is still abundant, and styrene production is increasing with continuous inventory reduction at ports. It is advisable to go long on styrene non - integrated profits before the first quarter [19]. - For polyethylene, OPEC+ plans to suspend production growth in Q1 2026, and crude oil prices may have bottomed. PE valuation has further downward space. With no new production capacity planned in H1 2026, inventory may decline from a high level, and it is advisable to go long on the LL5 - 9 spread on dips [22]. - For polypropylene, the EIA monthly report predicts a slight reduction in global oil inventories, and the supply surplus may ease. With no new production capacity planned in H1 2026, the supply pressure is relieved. In the context of weak supply and demand with high inventory pressure, the futures price may bottom out after the supply surplus pattern changes in Q1 next year [25]. - For PX, the current load is high, and downstream PTA has many maintenance plans. It is expected to maintain an inventory accumulation pattern before the maintenance season. After the Spring Festival, both supply and demand with downstream PTA will be strong, and there are medium - term opportunities to go long following crude oil on dips [28]. - For PTA, the supply side will maintain high maintenance in the short term, and the demand side is under profit pressure and will gradually reduce load due to the off - season. It is expected to enter the inventory accumulation stage during the Spring Festival. There is room for valuation increase after the Spring Festival, and medium - term opportunities to go long on dips should be grasped [31]. - For ethylene glycol, the overall load is still high, and the port inventory accumulation cycle will continue. There is an expectation of further profit compression and load reduction under the pressure of new plant commissioning. The valuation is currently neutral year - on - year, and there is a risk of a rebound in the short term due to the tense situation in Iran. In the medium term, the valuation is expected to be compressed without further domestic production cuts [33]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Urea - **Market Information**: Regional spot price changes in Shandong, Henan, etc., with a total basis of - 41 yuan/ton. The main futures contract decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 1791 yuan/ton [2]. Methanol - **Market Information**: Regional spot price changes in Jiangsu, etc., the main futures contract increased by 45 yuan/ton to 2239 yuan/ton, and MTO profit increased by 53 yuan [5]. Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE main crude oil futures fell 13.60 yuan/barrel, a 3.01% decline, to 438.80 yuan/barrel; high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil futures also declined. Singapore ESG oil product weekly data showed inventory accumulation for gasoline, diesel, fuel oil, and total refined oil products [8]. Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices fluctuated weakly with a technical bearish signal. Bulls cited seasonal and demand expectations, while bears pointed to weak demand and uncertain macro expectations. As of January 15, 2026, Shandong tire enterprise full - steel tire and semi - steel tire operating rates changed, and as of January 11, 2026, China's natural rubber social inventory increased. Spot prices of some rubber products decreased [11][12][13]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract fell 10 yuan to 4868 yuan, with a basis change. Cost - end prices were stable, the overall operating rate was 79.6% with changes in different methods. The downstream operating rate was 43.9% and decreased slightly. Factory and social inventories changed [15]. Pure Benzene & Styrene - **Market Information**: The spot and futures prices of pure benzene decreased, and the basis narrowed. The spot price of styrene was unchanged, and the futures price increased with a weakened basis. Upstream operating rate, port inventory, and downstream operating rates of related products changed [18]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The main contract closing price of polyethylene decreased by 90 yuan/ton to 6695 yuan/ton, and the spot price decreased. The basis strengthened. The upstream operating rate increased, and production enterprise and trader inventories decreased. The downstream average operating rate decreased slightly [21]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The main contract closing price of polypropylene decreased by 96 yuan/ton to 6496 yuan/ton, and the spot price decreased. The basis strengthened. The upstream operating rate decreased slightly, and production enterprise, trader, and port inventories decreased. The downstream average operating rate decreased slightly [23][24]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX03 contract fell 132 yuan to 7130 yuan, and the PX CFR decreased. The basis and 3 - 5 spread changed. PX and PTA loads decreased, some domestic and overseas plants had load - adjustment operations. January imports from South Korea increased, and November - end inventory increased [27]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract fell 68 yuan to 5048 yuan, and the East China spot price decreased. The basis and 5 - 9 spread changed. PTA and downstream loads decreased, some plants had load - adjustment operations, and social inventory decreased [30]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract fell 50 yuan to 3817 yuan, and the East China spot price decreased. The basis and 5 - 9 spread changed. The supply - side load increased slightly with different changes in different production methods. Some domestic and overseas plants had load - adjustment operations. Downstream loads decreased, import arrivals were expected, and port inventory increased. Valuation and cost - related profits and prices changed [32].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, although the geopolitical premium has disappeared and OPEC's production increase is minimal, and its supply has not yet increased significantly, the short - term outlook for oil prices is not overly bearish. A range - trading strategy of buying low and selling high is maintained, but it is recommended to wait and see for now to observe OPEC's export price - support willingness [3] - For methanol, the current valuation is low, the outlook for the coming year is improving, and there is limited downside. Due to potential geopolitical factors in Iran, there is a feasibility of buying on dips [6] - For urea, the current situation of the internal - external price difference has opened the import window, and with the expected increase in production at the end of January, there is a bearish fundamental outlook. It is recommended to take profits on rallies [9] - For rubber, it has a weak seasonal pattern. Adopt a neutral approach currently. If RU2605 falls below 16,000, switch to a short - term short - selling strategy. Partially build a position for the strategy of buying the NR main contract and short - selling RU2609 [15] - For PVC, the domestic supply - demand situation is characterized by strong supply and weak demand. In the short term, electricity price expectations and export rush support the price. In the medium term, the strategy is to short on rallies before significant industry production cuts [17] - For pure benzene and styrene, the non - integrated profit of styrene is currently neutral to low, with a large upward valuation repair space. It is advisable to go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene before the end of the first quarter [20] - For polyethylene, OPEC+ plans to suspend production growth in Q1 2026, and the crude oil price may have bottomed. It is recommended to go long on the LL5 - 9 spread on dips [23] - For polypropylene, in a situation of weak supply and demand, the overall inventory pressure is high. The futures price may bottom out when the supply - surplus pattern changes in Q1 next year [26] - For PX, it is expected to maintain a slight inventory build - up before the maintenance season. In the medium term, pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following the crude oil price [28] - For PTA, it is expected to enter the Spring Festival inventory build - up period after a short - term inventory draw. In the medium term, pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips [30] - For ethylene glycol, the industry's overall load is still high, the inventory build - up period will continue, and the valuation needs to be compressed in the medium term if there are no further domestic production cuts [33] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE's main crude oil futures contract closed down 4.00 yuan/barrel, a decline of 0.89%, at 444.90 yuan/barrel. High - sulfur fuel oil rose 34.00 yuan/ton, a gain of 1.33%, to 2586.00 yuan/ton, while low - sulfur fuel oil fell 15.00 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.48%, to 3087.00 yuan/ton. The U.S. EIA weekly data showed that commercial crude oil inventories increased by 3.39 million barrels to 422.45 million barrels, a 0.81% increase; SPR increased by 0.21 million barrels to 413.68 million barrels, a 0.05% increase; gasoline inventories increased by 8.98 million barrels to 251.01 million barrels, a 3.71% increase; diesel inventories decreased by 0.03 million barrels to 129.24 million barrels, a 0.02% decrease; fuel oil inventories increased by 1.74 million barrels to 24.72 million barrels, a 7.55% increase; and aviation kerosene inventories decreased by 0.89 million barrels to 43.14 million barrels, a 2.03% decrease [2] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Although the geopolitical premium has disappeared and OPEC's production increase is minimal, and its supply has not yet increased significantly, the short - term outlook for oil prices is not overly bearish. A range - trading strategy of buying low and selling high is maintained, but it is recommended to wait and see for now to observe OPEC's export price - support willingness [3] Methanol - **Market Information**: The spot prices in different regions changed as follows: Jiangsu changed by 10 yuan/ton, Lunan by 0 yuan/ton, Henan by - 10 yuan/ton, Hebei by 0 yuan/ton, and Inner Mongolia by - 5 yuan/ton. The main futures contract changed by 12.00 yuan/ton, closing at 2273 yuan/ton, and MTO profit changed by 17 yuan [5][10] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The current valuation is low, the outlook for the coming year is improving, and there is limited downside. Due to potential geopolitical factors in Iran, there is a feasibility of buying on dips [6] Urea - **Market Information**: Spot prices in different regions changed as follows: Shandong by 0 yuan/ton, Henan by 10 yuan/ton, Hebei by 0 yuan/ton, Hubei by 0 yuan/ton, Jiangsu by 10 yuan/ton, Shanxi by 10 yuan/ton, and Northeast by 0 yuan/ton. The overall basis was reported at - 61 yuan/ton. The main futures contract changed by - 13 yuan/ton, closing at 1801 yuan/ton [8] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The current situation of the internal - external price difference has opened the import window, and with the expected increase in production at the end of January, there is a bearish fundamental outlook. It is recommended to take profits on rallies [9] Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices fluctuated weakly, following macro trends. Bulls were optimistic due to seasonal and demand expectations, while bears were pessimistic due to weak demand. As of January 15, 2026, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong tire enterprises was 62.84%, 2.30 percentage points higher than the previous week and 2.78 percentage points higher than the same period last year. The operating rate of semi - steel tires in domestic tire enterprises was 74.35%, 6.35 percentage points higher than the previous week and 4.09 percentage points lower than the same period last year. As of January 4, 2026, China's natural rubber social inventory was 123.2 tons, a 3.1 - ton increase from the previous week, a 2.5% increase. The spot prices of some rubber products also changed [12][13] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It has a weak seasonal pattern. Adopt a neutral approach currently. If RU2605 falls below 16,000, switch to a short - term short - selling strategy. Partially build a position for the strategy of buying the NR main contract and short - selling RU2609 [15] PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract fell 10 yuan to 4868 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4650 (- 10) yuan/ton, the basis was - 218 (0) yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread was - 124 (+2) yuan/ton. The overall operating rate of PVC was 79.7%, a 1% increase from the previous period. The demand - side downstream operating rate was 44%, a 0.1% increase. Factory and social inventories increased [16] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The domestic supply - demand situation is characterized by strong supply and weak demand. In the short term, electricity price expectations and export rush support the price. In the medium term, the strategy is to short on rallies before significant industry production cuts [17] Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The spot price of pure benzene in East China was 5585 yuan/ton, unchanged. The closing price of the active pure benzene contract was 5648 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of pure benzene widened by 59 yuan/ton to - 63 yuan/ton. The spot price of styrene rose 100 yuan/ton to 7250 yuan/ton, while the closing price of the active styrene contract fell 13 yuan/ton to 7103 yuan/ton. The basis of styrene strengthened by 113 yuan/ton to 147 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 70.92%, a 0.22% increase. The inventory at Jiangsu ports decreased by 3.17 tons to 10.06 tons. The weighted operating rate of the "Three S" products on the demand side was 40.90%, a 0.11% increase [19] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The non - integrated profit of styrene is currently neutral to low, with a large upward valuation repair space. It is advisable to go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene before the end of the first quarter [20] Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 6785 yuan/ton, a 35 - yuan decrease. The spot price was 6840 yuan/ton, a 10 - yuan decrease. The basis strengthened by 25 yuan/ton to 55 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 81.56%, a 1.23% increase. The production enterprise inventory decreased by 4.51 tons to 35.03 tons, and the trader inventory remained unchanged at 2.92 tons. The downstream average operating rate was 41.1%, a 0.11% decrease. The LL5 - 9 spread widened by 6 yuan/ton to - 29 yuan/ton [22] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: OPEC+ plans to suspend production growth in Q1 2026, and the crude oil price may have bottomed. It is recommended to go long on the LL5 - 9 spread on dips [23] Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 6592 yuan/ton, a 2 - yuan increase. The spot price was 6575 yuan/ton, a 50 - yuan increase. The basis strengthened by 48 yuan/ton to - 17 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 76.61%, a 0.01% decrease. The production enterprise inventory decreased by 3.67 tons to 43.1 tons, the trader inventory decreased by 1.08 tons to 19.39 tons, and the port inventory decreased by 0.05 tons to 7.06 tons. The downstream average operating rate was 52.58%, a 0.02% decrease. The LL - PP spread narrowed by 37 yuan/ton [24][25] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: In a situation of weak supply and demand, the overall inventory pressure is high. The futures price may bottom out when the supply - surplus pattern changes in Q1 next year [26] PX - **Market Information**: The PX03 contract fell 132 yuan to 7130 yuan, and PX CFR fell 16 dollars to 881 dollars. The basis was - 15 yuan (- 3). The 3 - 5 spread was - 58 yuan (- 26). The Chinese PX operating rate was 89.4%, a 1.5% decrease, and the Asian operating rate was 80.6%, a 0.6% decrease. Some domestic and overseas plants had load adjustments. PTA operating rate was 76.9%, a 1.3% decrease. In early January, South Korea's PX exports to China were 14.6 tons, a 0.7 - ton increase year - on - year. The inventory at the end of November was 402 tons, a 5 - ton decrease from the previous month [27] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is expected to maintain a slight inventory build - up before the maintenance season. In the medium term, pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following the crude oil price [28] PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract fell 68 yuan to 5048 yuan, and the East China spot price fell 25 yuan to 5050 yuan. The basis was - 64 yuan (+6), and the 5 - 9 spread was 38 yuan (- 8). The PTA operating rate was 76.9%, a 1.3% decrease. The downstream operating rate was 90.1%, a 0.7% decrease. The terminal draw - texturing and weaving machine operating rates decreased. The social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) on January 9 was 200.5 tons, a 2.5 - ton decrease from the previous period. The spot and futures processing fees increased [29] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is expected to enter the Spring Festival inventory build - up period after a short - term inventory draw. In the medium term, pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips [30] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract fell 50 yuan to 3817 yuan, and the East China spot price fell 15 yuan to 3696 yuan. The basis was - 140 yuan (+4), and the 5 - 9 spread was - 111 yuan (+1). The overall supply - side operating rate was 74.4%, a 0.3% increase. Some domestic and overseas plants had load adjustments. The downstream operating rate was 90.1%, a 0.7% decrease. The terminal draw - texturing and weaving machine operating rates decreased. The import arrival forecast was 14.8 tons, and the East China departure was 0.79 tons on January 14. The port inventory was 80.2 tons, a 7.7 - ton increase from the previous period. The profits of different production methods varied, and the cost of some raw materials changed [32] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The industry's overall load is still high, the inventory build - up period will continue, and the valuation needs to be compressed in the medium term if there are no further domestic production cuts [33]