研究早观点 资料来源：常闻 分析师： 市场走势 彭皓辰 资料来源：常闻 国内市场主要指数 | 指数 | | 收盘 | 涨跌幅% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上证指数 | | 4,075.92 | -0.64 | | 深证成指 | | 13,952.71 | -1.44 | | 沪深 | 300 | 4,670.42 | -0.60 | | 中小板指 | | 8,423.99 | -1.20 | | 创业板指 | | 3,260.28 | -1.55 | | 科创 50 | | 1,432.52 | -1.44 | 执业登记编码：S0760525060001 2026 年 2 月 6 日 星期五 邮箱：penghaochen@sxzq.com 【今日要点】 【山证非银】行业周报（20260126-20260201）：-建设金融强国，关注 板块投资价值 【山证军工】国防军工 2026 年度策略-商业航天前景明朗，发射能力 亟需提升 【公司评论】科沃斯(603486.SH)：科沃斯：盈利能力改善，加速迈向 多品类、全场景服务机器人 【行业评论】礼来（Lilly）：替尔泊肽登顶全球"药 ...

以下文章来源于IN咖 ，作者聪明投资者 IN咖 . 多视角关注优秀投资人和企业家 1. 生物医药 行业长期受到一个问题的困扰：创新周期往往比回报周期更长。 2. 在几乎所有治疗领域里，礼来的整体研发速度，平均仍然比下一家同规模的制药公司快大约 40%。 3. CEO的工作 职责 是创造条件，让伟大的想法能够系统性地不断涌现。 4. 在过去 10年里，我当初做过的一个最重要的决定，就是在公司还负担不起的时候，依然为英伟达建造了 一台当时全球规模最大的超级计算机之一。 5. 我 现在 真的认为， 生物医药 行业的 " 关键 时刻 "已经到来了。能够从"药物发现"这种有点像在森林 里找松露的方式，转向真正的计算机辅助药物设计。 6. 当然，这背后的科学极其复杂，人类生物学本身也极其复杂，可能 （完全实现） 还需要 10 年时间。 7. 如果我们能把这件事从一种 "手工艺式的发现"，变成一个工程问题，那对人类生命的影响将是巨大的。 8. 我们更关注一个更现实的问题：如果最大寿命上限是 100岁，我们怎么让更多人更有机会真正走到那一 天？而我们的方式，是通过消除疾病来实现这一点。 9. 如果说在 AI领域目前最容易落地 ...

Core Viewpoint - The study indicates that Tirzepatide is more effective than Semaglutide for weight loss in adults with overweight or obesity, as evidenced by higher percentages of participants achieving significant weight loss milestones [3][12]. Study Overview - A total of 18,386 participants were included in the study, with 52% having type 2 diabetes and an average age of 52 years. The average follow-up time was 165 days, with over 50% of participants discontinuing treatment [4]. - The study utilized electronic health records and linked third-party data to track weight changes at three, six, and twelve months [5]. Weight Loss Results - The results showed significant advantages for the Tirzepatide group in weight loss percentages: - Participants losing ≥5% of body weight: Tirzepatide group at approximately 81.8% vs. Semaglutide group at 66.5%, with a risk ratio of 1.76 [8]. - Participants losing ≥10% of body weight: Tirzepatide group at approximately 62.1% vs. Semaglutide group at 37.1%, with a risk ratio of 2.54 [8]. - Participants losing ≥15% of body weight: Tirzepatide group at approximately 42.3% vs. Semaglutide group at 18.1%, with a risk ratio of 3.24 [8]. - Weight changes over time were also notable: - At 3 months, Tirzepatide group lost 5.9% vs. Semaglutide group at 3.6% - At 6 months, Tirzepatide group lost 10.1% vs. Semaglutide group at 5.8% - At 12 months, Tirzepatide group lost 15.3% [10]. Clinical Implications - The study provides important data for understanding the effectiveness of these weight loss medications and may contribute to future clinical guidelines [13]. - Dr. Patricia Rodriguez highlighted that patients using Tirzepatide were more than twice as likely to lose 10% of their weight compared to those using Semaglutide, and three times more likely to lose 15% [14]. - Both medications resulted in significant weight loss, but the risk of gastrointestinal adverse events was similar between the two groups [14].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant impact of Tirzepatide on body fat distribution patterns after weight loss, highlighting its potential benefits for treating type 2 diabetes and obesity [2][3][13]. Group 1: Research Findings - A study published in "Diabetes Obesity Metabolism" reveals that Tirzepatide treatment leads to notable changes in visceral fat, subcutaneous fat, and liver fat levels in type 2 diabetes patients compared to a virtual control group [4][8]. - Patients treated with Tirzepatide experienced an average weight loss of 9.6 kg and a liver fat reduction of 8.09%, while those on insulin degludec gained an average of 3.2 kg with a liver fat reduction of only 3.38% [9][19]. - The study indicates that traditional weight loss treatments often fail to specifically target visceral and liver fat accumulation, which are linked to increased risks of complications such as cardiovascular diseases [13][14]. Group 2: Drug Information - Tirzepatide, developed by Eli Lilly, was approved by the FDA in July 2022 for the treatment of type 2 diabetes and is the first of its kind to target both GLP-1 and GIP receptors [15][17]. - The drug enhances insulin secretion and lowers glucagon levels in a glucose-dependent manner, contributing to its efficacy in managing blood sugar levels [15][19]. - In clinical trials, Tirzepatide demonstrated superior and consistent reductions in HbA1c levels compared to other diabetes medications, with reductions ranging from 1.7% to 2.4% depending on the dosage [20][21]. Group 3: Weight Loss and Lipid Effects - Although not primarily intended for weight loss, Tirzepatide resulted in significant weight reductions, with participants losing between 5 kg and 11 kg depending on the dosage [21]. - The drug also showed positive effects on lipid profiles, with the highest dosage leading to a 5.6% reduction in total cholesterol and a 22.5% reduction in triglycerides, indicating its potential role in reducing cardiovascular disease risk [21].

Core Insights - Eli Lilly's stock price increased by 1.59%, closing at $1,059.70 per share, leading to a market capitalization exceeding $1 trillion, making it the first pharmaceutical company to achieve this milestone [1] - The surge in Eli Lilly's stock is primarily attributed to the strong sales of its weight loss drug Tirzepatide, which includes the diabetes treatment Mounjaro and the obesity treatment Zepbound [1][2] - Mounjaro's sales in Q3 reached $6.52 billion, a year-on-year increase of 109%, while Zepbound generated $3.59 billion in its first month, indicating robust market demand [1] - Eli Lilly's market share among new patients in the U.S. for its products is reported to be between 70% and 75% [2] Financial Performance - In 2023, Mounjaro's sales increased by 970% year-on-year, while Zepbound's first-month sales amounted to $176 million [1] - Combined revenue from Mounjaro and Zepbound in Q3 surpassed $10 billion, positioning Eli Lilly as a leading player in the pharmaceutical market [1] Market Outlook - Analysts predict that the global peak sales for Eli Lilly's three GLP-1 drugs could reach $101 billion [3] - A recent agreement with the Trump administration to lower the prices of weight loss drugs may initially reduce revenue but is expected to enhance drug accessibility for approximately 40 million Americans [3] - Eli Lilly's stock has risen nearly 40% this year, contrasting with a more than 40% decline in competitor Novo Nordisk's stock, indicating strong investor confidence in Eli Lilly's weight loss drug segment [3]

Core Product - ECC5004 is expected to become the best-in-class and the second oral small molecule GLP-1 receptor agonist to be launched globally [1][3] Market Growth - The global GLP-1 receptor agonist market is rapidly growing, projected to reach $246.5 billion by 2029 [2][5] - The market size for GLP-1 cornerstone therapies has increased from $13.2 billion in 2020 to $72.1 billion in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 52.9% [5] Company Overview - Eccogene Inc. (诚益生物) is a clinical-stage biotechnology company focused on developing new oral small molecule drugs for unmet medical needs in cardiovascular metabolic diseases and inflammatory diseases [3][6] - The company has achieved a valuation increase of 16.75 times in just three years, from $2.02 million post-A round financing in 2018 to $498 million in 2023 after a collaboration with AstraZeneca [6] Strategic Partnerships - Eccogene has entered a significant collaboration with AstraZeneca, valued at nearly $2 billion, granting AstraZeneca rights to develop and commercialize ECC5004 outside of China [3][6] Clinical Trials - ECC5004 is currently undergoing two global Phase IIb trials for obesity/overweight and type 2 diabetes, with completion expected by Q4 2025 [3][5] Financial Performance - Eccogene's revenue for 2023, 2024, and the first half of 2025 is projected to be $36 million, $221 million, and $557,000 respectively, with net profits showing significant fluctuations [7] - As of June 30, 2025, the company has $56.43 million in cash and cash equivalents to support ongoing clinical research [7] Competitive Landscape - The oral GLP-1 receptor agonist market is becoming increasingly competitive, with Novo Nordisk's oral semaglutide being the first approved oral GLP-1 receptor agonist and Eli Lilly's Orforglipron completing Phase III trials [5][6] - Several Chinese innovative drugs are also progressing rapidly, with at least eight domestic semaglutide products awaiting approval and 14 GLP-1 innovative drugs in Phase III clinical trials [5]

Core Viewpoint - Novo Nordisk is undergoing a significant leadership transition driven by its largest shareholder, the Novo Foundation, aiming for more aggressive measures to revitalize the company amid recent challenges in the obesity and diabetes drug market [2][5]. Group 1: Leadership Changes - The board chairman Helge Lund and six other board members will resign, with former CEO Lars Rebien Sørensen returning to the CEO position for a term of two to three years [2][5]. - Sørensen emphasized the need for a new perspective and energy to support management in crucial transformation processes [4][5]. - The new board will support CEO Maziar Mike Doustdar, who has been pushing for a major restructuring that has led to thousands of job cuts and the closure of several research departments [4][5]. Group 2: Market Challenges - Novo Nordisk's stock has dropped 36% year-to-date, with a further decline of 1.4% following the announcement of board changes [4]. - Analysts have noted that the company has fallen behind competitors like Eli Lilly due to a slow response to changes in the U.S. market [5][6]. - Sørensen acknowledged that the board failed to recognize the importance of market changes in a timely manner, impacting the company's ability to adjust its strategy [8]. Group 3: Strategic Focus - The Novo Foundation expressed dissatisfaction with the previous board's speed and effectiveness in addressing the rapidly changing obesity and metabolic market [5][6]. - The new board will focus on members with consumer experience, as GLP-1 drugs are becoming more consumer-oriented [5][6]. - The leadership changes reflect a desire for Novo Nordisk to adopt a more proactive approach in the competitive obesity and diabetes treatment market [8].

Core Viewpoint - Tirzepatide is more effective than Semaglutide for weight loss in adults with overweight or obesity, as evidenced by a study published in JAMA Internal Medicine [4][5][15] Group 1: Study Overview - The study included 18,386 participants, with 52% having type 2 diabetes and an average age of 52 years [6] - The average follow-up time was 165 days, with over 50% of participants discontinuing treatment [6] - Researchers recorded gastrointestinal adverse events, finding similar risks between both drug groups [6] Group 2: Weight Loss Results - The results showed significant advantages for the Tirzepatide group in weight loss percentages: - ≥5% weight loss: Tirzepatide ~81.8%, Semaglutide 66.5%, risk ratio 1.76 [10] - ≥10% weight loss: Tirzepatide ~62.1%, Semaglutide 37.1%, risk ratio 2.54 [10] - ≥15% weight loss: Tirzepatide ~42.3%, Semaglutide 18.1%, risk ratio 3.24 [10] - Weight changes at follow-ups were also significantly greater for Tirzepatide: - 3 months: Tirzepatide 5.9%, Semaglutide 3.6% - 6 months: Tirzepatide 10.1%, Semaglutide 5.8% - 12 months: Tirzepatide 15.3% [12] Group 3: Expert Insights - Dr. Patricia Rodriguez highlighted that patients using Tirzepatide were more than twice as likely to lose 10% of their weight compared to those using Semaglutide, and three times more likely to lose 15% [16] - Dr. Nick Stucky noted that while Tirzepatide's effectiveness is superior, both medications resulted in significant weight loss, with no difference in gastrointestinal adverse event risks [16] - Factors such as drug availability and insurance coverage may influence the choice between these medications [16]

Core Viewpoint - Tirzepatide, developed by Eli Lilly, is the most effective weight loss drug currently on the market, demonstrating a weight reduction of over 20% in clinical trials, particularly beneficial for patients with severe obesity (BMI > 40 kg/m²) [2][5] Group 1: Drug Efficacy - Tirzepatide has shown significant weight loss effects in obese patients, regardless of the presence of type 2 diabetes, with an approximate reduction of 20% [5] - The drug is particularly advantageous for patients with severe obesity, who face the highest burden of cardiovascular complications and mortality [5] Group 2: Genetic Obesity and MC4R Deficiency - MC4R deficiency is the most common hereditary obesity condition, characterized by hyperphagia and significant weight gain from early childhood, leading to severe obesity in adulthood [5][6] - Current treatments for MC4R deficiency have been ineffective, with no approved therapies available for this genetic condition [5][6] Group 3: Research Findings - A study published in Nature Medicine indicates that Tirzepatide effectively aids weight loss in patients with MC4R deficiency, achieving results comparable to non-genetic obesity patients [2][6] - In a clinical trial involving 2,291 participants, 32 individuals (1.4%) were found to carry pathogenic MC4R mutations, and both groups experienced similar weight loss trajectories over 72 weeks, with MC4R mutation carriers losing 18.3% of their body weight compared to 19.9% for non-carriers [6]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the rising trend of using a generic version of Tirzepatide, a weight loss drug developed by Eli Lilly, in China, highlighting the associated health risks and the legal implications of purchasing such drugs through unofficial channels [2][3][4]. Group 1: Product Overview - Tirzepatide, developed by Eli Lilly, shows an average weight loss of 22.8 kg after 72 weeks of use, with global sales projected to reach $6.15 billion by Q1 2025 [2]. - The generic version of Tirzepatide from Bangladesh is available in China due to patent exemptions, with at least six different versions circulating in the market [2][3]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The price difference is a significant factor for consumers, with the original Eli Lilly version priced at approximately 405 RMB per dose, while the Bangladeshi version ranges from 190 to 260 RMB [2]. - The distribution of the Bangladeshi version primarily occurs through unofficial channels, with many consumers purchasing without prescriptions or proper medical guidance [3][7]. Group 3: Health Risks - Users of the Bangladeshi version often experience severe adverse reactions, including low blood sugar and acute gastrointestinal issues, due to self-medication without professional oversight [3][4][14]. - The lack of clinical validation for these generic drugs in the Chinese population raises concerns about their safety and efficacy [14]. Group 4: Legal and Regulatory Issues - The importation of unapproved drugs is strictly prohibited under Chinese law, and individuals involved in the distribution of such drugs may face severe legal consequences [16][17]. - The article highlights the potential for criminal charges related to the sale of unapproved medications, emphasizing the risks associated with purchasing from unofficial sources [16][17].