KVB交易平台发现美联储的一众研究者，其中包括有着 "三把手" 之称的纽约联储主席约翰・威廉姆斯，他们来自纽约联储和 旧金山联储，经过深入研究后得出一个重要结论：美联储不能想当然地认为，其制定的基准利率在未来会一直远离零这个水 平。 在本周一发布的一篇博客文章里，这些研究者明确指出，在接下来的七年时间里，联邦基金利率有 9% 的可能性会触及所谓的 "零利率下限"。而当下利率存在着很高的不确定性，这一因素在很大程度上加剧了这种风险的出现。 威廉姆斯和他的合著者在文章中写道："和过去十年的情况比起来，现在的数据表明，市场对于未来利率水平的预期处于较高 的位置。" 但他们同时强调，即便如此，由于近期各种不确定性因素不断增加，从中长期来看，零利率下限所带来的风险依然 十分明显，其程度和 2018 年时不相上下。 从 2022 年 3 月到 2023 年 7 月，为了应对居高不下的通胀，美联储连续 11 次加息，将联邦基金利率的目标区间提高到了 5.25% 至 5.5%，这使得利率大幅脱离了零下限。美联储主席鲍威尔也曾表示，经过这一系列大幅加息，美联储在面对各种冲击时，有 了更多政策应对的空间。 从去年 9 月到现在， ...

美国利率期货市场消化的未来两年放松货币政策的步伐快于美联储上周公布的最新预测，在美国对伊朗 发动军事打击给经济增长构成又一威胁后，这种观点得到了巩固。追踪有担保隔夜融资利率(SOFR)的 期货交易员押注，美联储在2026年降息的幅度将超过上周三其政策会议结束时公布的预测。 ...

Group 1 - U.S. interest rate traders are betting that the Federal Reserve will shift to a more dovish monetary policy after the current Chairman Jerome Powell's term ends in May 2026, with expectations of rate cuts as early as June 2026 [1] - The market anticipates that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates at its upcoming meeting and may lower its expectations for rate cuts this year due to upward pressure on prices from tariffs [1] - Traders are focusing on futures linked to the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR), which has seen a surge in trading volume following Trump's announcement of a forthcoming nomination for the next Fed Chair [1] Group 2 - The strategy for betting on interest rate futures includes shorting SOFR futures expiring in March 2026 while going long on those expiring in June 2026, creating a typical "three-month spread trade" [2] - On Monday, the trading volume for this strategy reached 108,649 contracts, with open interest for March and June contracts hitting the highest levels of the current policy cycle, indicating strong demand for this strategy [2] - The relative price of the March contract has weakened significantly compared to the December 2025 and June 2026 contracts, leading to the highest price spread since January [2] Group 3 - Analysts suggest that Trump may choose a successor who supports loose monetary policy, which could complicate the nomination process in Congress [5] - Concerns have been raised about the potential for a "shadow" Fed Chair if Trump nominates a successor before Powell's term ends, leading to mixed signals that could undermine market confidence in U.S. policy-making [5] - It is important to note that the Federal Reserve's monetary policy is collectively decided by the Federal Open Market Committee, and the Chair does not unilaterally set policy rates [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the FMX futures exchange has launched U.S. Treasury futures trading, marking a return to a competitive market with the potential to challenge the CME's long-standing dominance in this sector [1][2] - FMX has introduced 2-year and 5-year U.S. Treasury futures products, which were initially scheduled for trading in March but were delayed due to operational issues and market volatility [1] - The U.S. Treasury futures market has been highly concentrated since CME's acquisition of CBOT in 2006, with CME holding a near monopoly on the issuance of U.S. Treasury futures [1] Group 2 - FMX was established by BGC Group in collaboration with top international investment banks and market makers, including JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and Barclays, creating a strong industry alliance [1] - FMX previously launched SOFR futures in September 2024 and has partnered with the London Clearing House to provide cross-border margin services, enhancing margin efficiency and reducing capital costs for participants [2] - Industry insiders believe that FMX's entry into the U.S. Treasury futures market will help break CME's monopoly and increase competition, which could lead to lower trading costs for traders [2]

Core Viewpoint - The FMX Futures Exchange is set to launch U.S. Treasury futures trading on September 23, 2024, aiming to capture market opportunities arising from Federal Reserve interest rate policy changes, challenging the dominance of CME in the U.S. Treasury futures market [1][3]. Group 1: Market Structure and Participants - The U.S. Treasury futures market is characterized by a highly concentrated structure, with CME holding a dominant position. Current open interest for various maturities includes 4.056 million contracts for 2-year, 6.806 million for 5-year, and 4.917 million for 10-year futures [1]. - Market participants are primarily institutional investors, with a diverse structure including proprietary traders, asset managers, leveraged funds, other financial institutions, and individual investors. Asset managers and leveraged funds account for 60%-70% of the market [2][4]. Group 2: Impact of FMX Futures Exchange - The introduction of FMX Futures Exchange is expected to inject new dynamics into the U.S. Treasury futures market, potentially breaking the monopoly of CME and lowering trading costs, benefiting U.S. financial institutions [3][4]. - FMX's collaboration with LCH for cross-margining and enhanced clearing efficiency may attract institutional investors to a more cost-effective platform, thereby reducing market trading costs [4]. - Initial challenges for FMX may include liquidity issues due to CME's established trading network, necessitating attractive trading conditions for high-frequency traders to gradually capture market share [3][4].