Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - This week, the valuation of logs is moderately strong. The price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine in Shandong increased by 20 yuan to 770 yuan/cubic meter, and the price of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine in Jiangsu increased by 10 yuan to 790 yuan/cubic meter. The downstream southern construction timber prices also rose. The valuation support comes from the significant increase in the March FOB price and shipping costs, which raises the import cost. However, the factors suppressing the price are the concentrated arrival of logs in the short - term, the incomplete recovery of demand, and the large inventory accumulation, which restricts the upward price space. In the short term, there is a game between cost support and the weak supply - demand balance. It is expected that the price will remain stable next week. Subsequently, attention should be paid to the downstream resumption of work progress and the recovery of New Zealand's log shipments. If the demand recovery is less than expected, the inventory pressure may further suppress the valuation [7]. Summary by Directory Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategy Comprehensive Analysis - Supply side: New Zealand's log shipments decreased slightly month - on - month due to rising shipping costs and weather, but the arrival in China is still relatively concentrated. Rizhao Port and Xinminzhou Port are facing significant arrival pressure. - Demand side: The downstream is still in the process of post - holiday recovery. The average daily outbound volume of 13 ports nationwide decreased by 36.84% month - on - month. The outbound volumes in Jiangsu and Fujian decreased significantly, while only Shandong showed a slight increase. - Inventory side: The total inventory of softwood logs increased by 22.04% month - on - month to 2.99 million cubic meters [6]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Buy a small amount of long positions. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Wait and see [8]. Core Logic Analysis - The valuation of logs is moderately strong. The price increase in some regions is due to the increase in import costs caused by rising FOB prices and shipping costs in March, but the concentrated arrival and weak demand limit the upward price space. The short - term price is expected to be stable, and future trends depend on downstream resumption and New Zealand's shipments [7]. Weekly Data Tracking Log Supply - In February 2026, about 48 ships carrying New Zealand logs left the port, an increase of 19 ships month - on - month. The total shipment volume was about 1.816 million cubic meters, a 66% increase from January. Among them, 38 ships were bound for China, with a shipment volume of about 1.43 million cubic meters, accounting for 79% and a 53% increase from January. - From February 28 to March 6, 2026, a total of 11 ships (440,000 cubic meters) of New Zealand logs left the 12 ports for shipment, a decrease of 3 ships (90,000 cubic meters) week - on - week. Among them, 9 ships (350,000 cubic meters) were directly bound for China, a decrease of 1 ship (30,000 cubic meters) week - on - week. - From March 2 to March 8, 2026, 10 ships carrying New Zealand logs were expected to arrive at 13 Chinese ports, a decrease of 4 ships (29% week - on - week), and the total arrival volume was about 392,000 cubic meters, a decrease of 63,000 cubic meters (14% week - on - week) [18]. Log Inventory - As of February 27, the total domestic log inventory of different materials was 2.99 million cubic meters, an increase of 540,000 cubic meters (22.04% week - on - week). The radiata pine inventory was 2.42 million cubic meters, an increase of 350,000 cubic meters (16.91% week - on - week). The North American timber inventory was 240,000 cubic meters, an increase of 140,000 cubic meters (140% week - on - week). The spruce/fir inventory was 150,000 cubic meters, an increase of 30,000 cubic meters (25% week - on - week). - As of February 27, the total inventory of 3 ports in Shandong was 1,920,000 cubic meters, an increase of 164,000 cubic meters from the previous period. The total inventory of 3 ports in Jiangsu was 811,428 cubic meters, an increase of 164,000 cubic meters from the previous period. The total inventory of 3 ports in Fujian was 104,787 cubic meters, an increase of 16,767 cubic meters from the previous period [21]. Log Demand - As of February 27, the average daily outbound volume of logs at 13 ports was 6,000 cubic meters, a decrease of 3,500 cubic meters (36.84% week - on - week). Among them, the average daily total outbound volume of 3 ports in Shandong was 5,300 cubic meters, an increase of 300 cubic meters (6% week - on - week). The average daily total outbound volume of 3 ports in Jiangsu was 0 cubic meters, a decrease of 2,100 cubic meters (100% week - on - week). The average daily total outbound volume of 3 ports in Fujian was 700 cubic meters, a decrease of 1,700 cubic meters (70.83% week - on - week). - As of March 4 (the 16th day of the first lunar month), the resumption rate of 10,692 construction sites nationwide was 23.5%, a 14.6 - percentage - point increase month - on - month and the same as the lunar - year - on - lunar - year comparison. The labor attendance rate was 29.7%, a 14.2 - percentage - point increase month - on - month and a 2.2 - percentage - point increase compared with the same lunar period last year. The fund availability rate was 35.5%, a 6.5 - percentage - point increase month - on - month and a 0.5 - percentage - point increase compared with the same lunar period last year. For real - estate projects, the resumption rate was 22.4%, a 14.2 - percentage - point increase month - on - month and a 1.5 - percentage - point increase compared with the same lunar period last year. The labor attendance rate was 29.5%, a 10.3 - percentage - point increase month - on - month and a 7.8 - percentage - point increase compared with the same lunar period last year. The fund availability rate was 35.3%, a 6.9 - percentage - point increase month - on - month and a 7 - percentage - point increase compared with the same lunar period last year [25]. Log Prices - Shandong: This week, the price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs at Rizhao Port was 770 yuan/cubic meter, an increase of 20 yuan/cubic meter (2.67% week - on - week) compared with last week and a decrease of 70 yuan/cubic meter (8.33% year - on - year) compared with last year. - Jiangsu: This week, the price of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs at Taicang Port was 790 yuan/cubic meter, an increase of 10 yuan/cubic meter (1.28% week - on - week) compared with last week and a decrease of 40 yuan/cubic meter (4.82% year - on - year) compared with last year. - Shandong: This week, the price of 11.8 - meter 20cm+ general - grade spruce logs at Rizhao Port was 1,150 yuan/cubic meter, the same as last week (0% week - on - week) and an increase of 100 yuan/cubic meter (9.52% year - on - year) compared with last year [32]. Downstream Timber Prices - For radiata pine timber, taking the 3000*40*90 radiata pine timber as an example, the mainstream transaction price in the Shandong market is 1,270 yuan/cubic meter, and in the Jiangsu market is 1,310 yuan/cubic meter. - For spruce/white pine timber, taking the 3000*40*90 white pine timber as an example, the mainstream transaction price in the Shandong market is 1,730 yuan/cubic meter, and in the Jiangsu market is 1,680 yuan/cubic meter [35]. Import Log Costs - In March 2026, the FOB price (CFR) of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs was 119 US dollars per JAS cubic meter, an increase of 6 US dollars per cubic meter compared with last month. - In March 2026, the FOB price (CFR) of 11.8 - meter 20+ spruce logs was 125 euros per JAS cubic meter, the same as last month [41].

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The current situation features high inventory, weak spot prices, and limited upward momentum in the futures market. Short - term supply pressure has increased significantly, but long - term overseas supply may tighten. Demand is seasonally weak, and the current price has partly reflected negative expectations. In the short term, the price will mainly fluctuate within a narrow range with relatively limited downside space [1][4][5]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies Comprehensive Analysis - Supply side: This week, New Zealand shipped 14 vessels (510,000 cubic meters) of logs to China, a week - on - week increase of 7 vessels (220,000 cubic meters). The arrival volume at 13 Chinese ports was 465,000 cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 48%. However, the Canadian timber industry's capacity has shrunk due to US tariffs, and with the expected winter shutdown in North America, long - term overseas supply may tighten. Inventory continues to accumulate, with the total domestic softwood log inventory at 2.95 million cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 0.68%. Radiata pine inventory accounts for over 80%, concentrated in Shandong and Jiangsu ports. - Demand side: Demand is seasonally weak. The average daily outbound volume at 13 ports is 65,600 cubic meters, a week - on - week decrease of 1.06%. The decline in outbound volume in Fujian and Hebei is significant. The capital availability rate of construction sites has increased slightly by 0.04 percentage points to 59.8%, but there are few new projects, and the transmission of terminal demand is limited [4]. Logic Analysis - On the spot side, the prices at major ports have dropped by 10 - 30 yuan per cubic meter. The price of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine in Taicang is 750 yuan per cubic meter, a year - on - year decrease of 6.25%. The overseas market price remains at $116 but has hidden discounts, and traders' willingness to accept vessels is low, with limited cost support. The short - term arrival volume surge and inventory accumulation on the supply side suppress valuation, and the seasonal decline in demand further weakens the upward momentum of prices. The current price has partly reflected negative expectations. If overseas shipments decrease seasonally or domestic terminal demand improves, the valuation is expected to recover marginally. In the short term, it will mainly fluctuate within a narrow range with relatively limited downside space [5]. Strategy - Unilateral: Wait and see. Close previous short positions. Aggressive investors can consider buying a small amount near the previous low. - Arbitrage: Pay attention to the 1 - 3 reverse spread. - Options: Wait and see [6]. Weekly Data Tracking Log Supply - New Zealand log shipments: From November 17 - 23, 2025, the expected number of New Zealand log vessels arriving at 13 Chinese ports was 13, an increase of 3 vessels compared to last week, a week - on - week increase of 30%. The total arrival volume was about 465,000 cubic meters, an increase of 150,000 cubic meters compared to last week, a week - on - week increase of 48%. In October 2025, China's imports of softwood logs from New Zealand were about 1.4958 million cubic meters, a month - on - month decrease of 0.23% and a year - on - year increase of 12.47%. From January to October 2025, China's imports of softwood logs from New Zealand were about 15.0078 million cubic meters, a year - on - year increase of 1.80%. In October 2025, China's imports of radiata pine were about 1.4836 million cubic meters, a month - on - month increase of 2.24% and a year - on - year increase of 16.34%. From January to October 2025, China's imports of radiata pine were about 14.6481 million cubic meters, a year - on - year increase of 1.35% [13]. Log Inventory - As of November 14, the total domestic log inventory by material was 2.95 million cubic meters, an increase of 20,000 cubic meters compared to last week, a week - on - week increase of 0.68%. Radiata pine inventory was 2.43 million cubic meters, an increase of 20,000 cubic meters compared to last week, a week - on - week increase of 0.83%. North American log inventory was 90,000 cubic meters, a decrease of 10,000 cubic meters compared to last week, a week - on - week decrease of 10.00%. Spruce/fir inventory was 210,000 cubic meters, an increase of 10,000 cubic meters compared to last week, a week - on - week increase of 5.00%. - By province, as of November 14, the total inventory at 3 ports in Shandong was 1,954,000 cubic meters, an increase of 39,000 cubic meters compared to the previous period. The total inventory at 3 ports in Jiangsu was 836,562 cubic meters, an increase of 39,000 cubic meters compared to the previous period. The total inventory at 3 ports in Fujian was 52,923 cubic meters, a decrease of 16,810 cubic meters compared to the previous period [16]. Log Demand - As of November 14, the average daily outbound volume of logs at 13 ports was 65,600 cubic meters, a decrease of 7,000 cubic meters compared to the previous period, a week - on - week decrease of 1.06%. Among them, the average daily total outbound volume at 3 ports in Shandong was 36,700 cubic meters, a decrease of 12,000 cubic meters compared to the previous period, a week - on - week decrease of 3.17%. The average daily total outbound volume at 3 ports in Jiangsu was 24,400 cubic meters, an increase of 16,000 cubic meters compared to the previous period, a week - on - week increase of 7.02%. The average daily total outbound volume at 3 ports in Fujian was 2,700 cubic meters, a decrease of 11,000 cubic meters compared to the previous period, a week - on - week decrease of 28.95%. - As of November 18, the capital availability rate of sample construction sites was 59.8%, a week - on - week increase of 0.04 percentage points. The capital availability rate of non - housing construction projects was 61.11%, a week - on - week increase of 0.05 percentage points. The capital availability rate of housing construction projects was 53.29%, a week - on - week increase of 0.05 percentage points. Although the capital availability rate has stopped declining slightly and the construction progress of some projects in East China has accelerated slightly, the number of new projects is still small [22]. Log Prices - Radiata pine and spruce/fir prices: In Shandong, the price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs at Rizhao Port this week was 750 yuan per cubic meter, unchanged from last week and a year - on - year decrease of 50 yuan per cubic meter (6.25%). In Jiangsu, the price of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs at Taicang Port this week was 750 yuan per cubic meter, a week - on - week decrease of 10 yuan per cubic meter (1.32%) and a year - on - year decrease of 50 yuan per cubic meter (6.25%). In Shandong, the price of 11.8 - meter 20cm + spruce logs at Rizhao Port this week was 1,180 yuan per cubic meter, unchanged from last week and a year - on - year increase of 100 yuan per cubic meter (9.26%) [29]. - Downstream timber prices: For radiata pine timber, the mainstream transaction price in the Shandong market was 1,260 yuan per cubic meter, and in the Jiangsu market, it was also 1,260 yuan per cubic meter. For spruce/white pine timber, the mainstream transaction price in the Shandong market was 1,830 yuan per cubic meter, and in the Jiangsu market, it was 1,680 yuan per cubic meter [33]. Imported Log Costs - Radiata pine FOB price: In November 2025, the FOB price (CFR) of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs was $116 per JAS cubic meter, an increase of $1 per cubic meter compared to last month. - Spruce FOB price: In November 2025, the FOB price (CFR) of 11.8 - meter 20 + spruce logs was 126 euros per JAS cubic meter, an increase of 1 euro per cubic meter compared to last month. In November, New Zealand log suppliers' quotes were firm, but domestic traders' willingness to accept vessels was low. There were many quote adjustments within the month, and some suppliers' offer prices had hidden discounts. It is expected that the FOB price of New Zealand radiata pine may be adjusted downward in December [39][40].