1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, the demand for logs rebounds, the port departure volume increases, the supply remains at a normal level, the port inventory is depleted, and combined with the increase in shipping freight, the log price rebounds [5]. - In the medium - term, the supply will increase, the demand will recover slowly, and the port inventory may be depleted from a high level. The log supply is expected to maintain a normal level referring to the shipping schedule rhythm, while the weak new construction in the real estate sector on the demand side continues to drag down the log demand [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Trend - The market shows a pattern of near - term strength and long - term weakness, and the positive spread widens [3]. 3.2 Spot Price Trend - For 3.9 - meter 40 + radiata pine, the prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged at 860 yuan/m³ and 810 yuan/m³ respectively compared to last week [7]. - For 3.9 - meter 30 + radiata pine, the price in Shandong increased by 10 yuan/m³ (1.3%) to 780 yuan/m³, while the price in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 780 yuan/m³ [7]. - For 3.9 - meter 20 + radiata pine, the price in Shandong increased by 20 yuan/m³ (2.9%) to 720 yuan/m³, and the price in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 730 yuan/m³ [7]. - For 5.9 - meter 40 + radiata pine, the price in Shandong remained unchanged at 950 yuan/m³, and the price in Jiangsu decreased by 20 yuan/m³ (-2.3%) to 850 yuan/m³ [7]. - For 5.9 - meter 30 + radiata pine, the price in Shandong increased by 10 yuan/m³ (1.3%) to 810 yuan/m³, and the price in Jiangsu decreased by 10 yuan/m³ (-1.3%) to 790 yuan/m³ [7]. - For 5.9 - meter 20 + radiata pine, the price in Shandong increased by 20 yuan/m³ (2.7%) to 750 yuan/m³, and the price in Jiangsu decreased by 10 yuan/m³ (-1.3%) to 750 yuan/m³ [7]. - For 11.8 - meter 20 + spruce, the prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged at 1150 yuan/m³ [7]. 3.3 Supply - New Zealand log shipping schedule data shows multiple shipments with different volumes and expected arrival dates at various Chinese and Korean ports from March 12 to March 27, 2026 [19]. - The arrival volume of logs at Chinese ports is increasing, as shown by the comparison of arrival volume data from 2023 to 2026 at ports such as China's main ports, Lanshan Port, Taicang W万方 Port, and Xinminzhou Port [20]. 3.4 Demand and Inventory - In terms of port inventory, the total inventory at Lanshan Port decreased by 2.40 million m³ (-9.4%), the total inventory at Xinminzhou Port decreased by 2.70 million m³ (-11.3%), the total inventory at Jiangdu Port decreased by 2.61 million m³ (-27.0%), and the total inventory at Taicang Port decreased by 0.73 million m³ (-1.4%) compared to last week [22]. - In terms of daily average shipment volume, the total shipment volume at Jiangdu Port increased by 0.07 million m³, and the total shipment volume at Taicang Port increased by 0.58 million m³ [22]. 3.5 Other Price - Directly Affecting Factors - The dry bulk BDI decreased by 25 (-1.2%) to 2031 [26]. - The handy - size BHSI decreased by 31 (-4.2%) to 713 [26]. - The crude oil BDTI increased by 775 (26.2%) to 3,737 [26]. - The SCFI comprehensive index increased by 120 (7.0%) to 1,827 [26]. - The USD/CNY exchange rate increased by 0.013 (0.2%) to 6.914 [26]. - The USD/NZD exchange rate increased by 0.017 (1.0%) to 1.742 [26].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The cost of logs has increased, leading to a rise in prices. The government in 2026 aims to stabilize expectations, adjust the structure, prevent risks, and promote reforms in its work report. The GDP growth target has been adjusted to a more realistic range of 4.5% - 5.0%, and the scale of policy - based financial instruments has been increased. Shanghai has optimized its real estate policies [1][3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing prices of 2605, 2607, and 2609 contracts all showed an upward trend on March 17, 2026, with daily increases of 0.4%, 0.4%, and 0.6% respectively, and weekly increases of 2.7%, 2%, and 2% respectively. The trading volume of the 2605 contract increased by 5.8% daily and 79% weekly, while the 2607 contract decreased by 20.4% daily but increased by 65% weekly, and the 2609 contract decreased by 33.9% daily and 63% weekly. The positions of all three contracts increased, with daily increases of 14.3%, 2.4%, and 2.5% respectively, and weekly increases of 35%, 23%, and 9% respectively [1] - **Spread Data**: The spreads between different contracts also changed. For example, the spread between 2605 - 2607 increased by 50.0% daily and decreased by 73% weekly [1] - **Spot Market Data**: Most of the log and wood square spot prices remained stable, with only a few showing slight changes. For example, the 3 - meter radiation pine wood square in Rizhao decreased by 1.6% daily and weekly, and the 4 - meter radiation pine wood square in Rizhao decreased by 0.8% daily and weekly [1] 2. Macro and Industry News - The 2026 government work report focuses on stabilizing expectations, adjusting the structure, preventing risks, and promoting reforms. The GDP growth target is adjusted from "around 5%" to "4.5% - 5.0%", and the scale of policy - based financial instruments is increased. Shanghai has optimized its real estate policies since February 26, 2026 [3] 3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of logs is 0, indicating a neutral trend [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, due to slow outbound movement on the demand side and a rapid increase in arrivals on the supply side, port inventories are accumulating, leading to a price correction for logs. - In the medium - term, supply will increase in March while demand recovers slowly. Port inventories may start to decline from high levels. Log supply is expected to remain at a normal level based on shipping schedules, but weak new property starts will continue to drag down log demand [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Price and Market Trends - **Spot Price Trends**: The prices of various log types in Shandong and Jiangsu regions showed little change in the week of March 13, 2026, compared to the previous week. For example, the price of 3.9 - meter 40 + radiata pine in Shandong remained at 860 yuan/m³, with a 0% change. However, some types had minor price fluctuations, such as the 5.9 - meter 40 + radiata pine in Jiangsu, which increased by 30 yuan/m³, a 3.6% change [7]. 3.2 Supply - **New Zealand Log Shipping Data**: Multiple log shipments from New Zealand and Australia are expected to arrive at Chinese ports between March 18 - 27, 2026, with cargo volumes ranging from 35,192.04 m³ to 42,000.0 m³ [19]. - **Arrival Increase**: The log arrival volume at Chinese ports has been increasing, as shown by the historical arrival data of Chinese ports, Lanshan Port, Taicang Wanjun Port, and Xinminzhou Port [21]. 3.3 Demand and Inventory - **Domestic Main Port Inventory and Daily Shipment**: As of March 6, 2026, inventory at ports such as Lanshan Port, Xinminzhou, Jiangdu Port, and Taicang Port showed different degrees of change compared to the previous period. For example, the total inventory at Lanshan Port decreased by 0.70 (0.5%), while the total inventory at Jiangdu Port increased by 3.27 (23.6%). The daily shipment volume also varied, with the total shipment volume at Lanshan Port increasing by 0.11 (34.4%) [23]. 3.4 Other Price - Related Factors - **Freight and Exchange Rates**: On March 13, 2026, the dry bulk BDI was 2028, with a 0.9% increase from the previous week; the Handysize BHSI was 796, with a 3.7% decrease; the crude oil BDTI was 2,586, a decrease of 483 from the previous week; the SCFI composite index was 1,710, a 14.9% increase. The USD/CNY exchange rate was 6.901, a 0.3% decrease, and the USD/NZD exchange rate was 1.725, a 3.5% increase [27].

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The current situation features high inventory, weak spot prices, and limited upward momentum in the futures market. Short - term supply pressure has increased significantly, but long - term overseas supply may tighten. Demand is seasonally weak, and the current price has partly reflected negative expectations. In the short term, the price will mainly fluctuate within a narrow range with relatively limited downside space [1][4][5]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies Comprehensive Analysis - Supply side: This week, New Zealand shipped 14 vessels (510,000 cubic meters) of logs to China, a week - on - week increase of 7 vessels (220,000 cubic meters). The arrival volume at 13 Chinese ports was 465,000 cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 48%. However, the Canadian timber industry's capacity has shrunk due to US tariffs, and with the expected winter shutdown in North America, long - term overseas supply may tighten. Inventory continues to accumulate, with the total domestic softwood log inventory at 2.95 million cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 0.68%. Radiata pine inventory accounts for over 80%, concentrated in Shandong and Jiangsu ports. - Demand side: Demand is seasonally weak. The average daily outbound volume at 13 ports is 65,600 cubic meters, a week - on - week decrease of 1.06%. The decline in outbound volume in Fujian and Hebei is significant. The capital availability rate of construction sites has increased slightly by 0.04 percentage points to 59.8%, but there are few new projects, and the transmission of terminal demand is limited [4]. Logic Analysis - On the spot side, the prices at major ports have dropped by 10 - 30 yuan per cubic meter. The price of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine in Taicang is 750 yuan per cubic meter, a year - on - year decrease of 6.25%. The overseas market price remains at $116 but has hidden discounts, and traders' willingness to accept vessels is low, with limited cost support. The short - term arrival volume surge and inventory accumulation on the supply side suppress valuation, and the seasonal decline in demand further weakens the upward momentum of prices. The current price has partly reflected negative expectations. If overseas shipments decrease seasonally or domestic terminal demand improves, the valuation is expected to recover marginally. In the short term, it will mainly fluctuate within a narrow range with relatively limited downside space [5]. Strategy - Unilateral: Wait and see. Close previous short positions. Aggressive investors can consider buying a small amount near the previous low. - Arbitrage: Pay attention to the 1 - 3 reverse spread. - Options: Wait and see [6]. Weekly Data Tracking Log Supply - New Zealand log shipments: From November 17 - 23, 2025, the expected number of New Zealand log vessels arriving at 13 Chinese ports was 13, an increase of 3 vessels compared to last week, a week - on - week increase of 30%. The total arrival volume was about 465,000 cubic meters, an increase of 150,000 cubic meters compared to last week, a week - on - week increase of 48%. In October 2025, China's imports of softwood logs from New Zealand were about 1.4958 million cubic meters, a month - on - month decrease of 0.23% and a year - on - year increase of 12.47%. From January to October 2025, China's imports of softwood logs from New Zealand were about 15.0078 million cubic meters, a year - on - year increase of 1.80%. In October 2025, China's imports of radiata pine were about 1.4836 million cubic meters, a month - on - month increase of 2.24% and a year - on - year increase of 16.34%. From January to October 2025, China's imports of radiata pine were about 14.6481 million cubic meters, a year - on - year increase of 1.35% [13]. Log Inventory - As of November 14, the total domestic log inventory by material was 2.95 million cubic meters, an increase of 20,000 cubic meters compared to last week, a week - on - week increase of 0.68%. Radiata pine inventory was 2.43 million cubic meters, an increase of 20,000 cubic meters compared to last week, a week - on - week increase of 0.83%. North American log inventory was 90,000 cubic meters, a decrease of 10,000 cubic meters compared to last week, a week - on - week decrease of 10.00%. Spruce/fir inventory was 210,000 cubic meters, an increase of 10,000 cubic meters compared to last week, a week - on - week increase of 5.00%. - By province, as of November 14, the total inventory at 3 ports in Shandong was 1,954,000 cubic meters, an increase of 39,000 cubic meters compared to the previous period. The total inventory at 3 ports in Jiangsu was 836,562 cubic meters, an increase of 39,000 cubic meters compared to the previous period. The total inventory at 3 ports in Fujian was 52,923 cubic meters, a decrease of 16,810 cubic meters compared to the previous period [16]. Log Demand - As of November 14, the average daily outbound volume of logs at 13 ports was 65,600 cubic meters, a decrease of 7,000 cubic meters compared to the previous period, a week - on - week decrease of 1.06%. Among them, the average daily total outbound volume at 3 ports in Shandong was 36,700 cubic meters, a decrease of 12,000 cubic meters compared to the previous period, a week - on - week decrease of 3.17%. The average daily total outbound volume at 3 ports in Jiangsu was 24,400 cubic meters, an increase of 16,000 cubic meters compared to the previous period, a week - on - week increase of 7.02%. The average daily total outbound volume at 3 ports in Fujian was 2,700 cubic meters, a decrease of 11,000 cubic meters compared to the previous period, a week - on - week decrease of 28.95%. - As of November 18, the capital availability rate of sample construction sites was 59.8%, a week - on - week increase of 0.04 percentage points. The capital availability rate of non - housing construction projects was 61.11%, a week - on - week increase of 0.05 percentage points. The capital availability rate of housing construction projects was 53.29%, a week - on - week increase of 0.05 percentage points. Although the capital availability rate has stopped declining slightly and the construction progress of some projects in East China has accelerated slightly, the number of new projects is still small [22]. Log Prices - Radiata pine and spruce/fir prices: In Shandong, the price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs at Rizhao Port this week was 750 yuan per cubic meter, unchanged from last week and a year - on - year decrease of 50 yuan per cubic meter (6.25%). In Jiangsu, the price of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs at Taicang Port this week was 750 yuan per cubic meter, a week - on - week decrease of 10 yuan per cubic meter (1.32%) and a year - on - year decrease of 50 yuan per cubic meter (6.25%). In Shandong, the price of 11.8 - meter 20cm + spruce logs at Rizhao Port this week was 1,180 yuan per cubic meter, unchanged from last week and a year - on - year increase of 100 yuan per cubic meter (9.26%) [29]. - Downstream timber prices: For radiata pine timber, the mainstream transaction price in the Shandong market was 1,260 yuan per cubic meter, and in the Jiangsu market, it was also 1,260 yuan per cubic meter. For spruce/white pine timber, the mainstream transaction price in the Shandong market was 1,830 yuan per cubic meter, and in the Jiangsu market, it was 1,680 yuan per cubic meter [33]. Imported Log Costs - Radiata pine FOB price: In November 2025, the FOB price (CFR) of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs was $116 per JAS cubic meter, an increase of $1 per cubic meter compared to last month. - Spruce FOB price: In November 2025, the FOB price (CFR) of 11.8 - meter 20 + spruce logs was 126 euros per JAS cubic meter, an increase of 1 euro per cubic meter compared to last month. In November, New Zealand log suppliers' quotes were firm, but domestic traders' willingness to accept vessels was low. There were many quote adjustments within the month, and some suppliers' offer prices had hidden discounts. It is expected that the FOB price of New Zealand radiata pine may be adjusted downward in December [39][40].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current core contradiction affecting the log price trend is not obvious. Spot price cuts and the decline in foreign quotes have been fully factored in. If the 11 - contract follows the trend of the 09 - contract with low buyer acceptance for delivery, there is still room for price decline, but the current time is not right. Spot prices remained stable this week, with no significant supply - demand contradictions, and prices are slowly declining with low volatility, but the downside space is also limited. Next week, inventory reduction is expected to continue [3]. - The near - end price does not offer delivery profit. The futures price is lower than all specification warehouse - receipt costs but has not reached the price at which buyers are willing to take delivery. The long - short contradiction is not obvious, and the price will continue to fluctuate in the range of 780 - 820 until a new variable emerges [4]. - The price of the 01 - contract cannot be accurately valued at present. Overseas shipping volume, CFR quotes, the trading situation of the 11 - contract, and subsequent delivery volume are all unknown. The monthly spread structure is at a reasonable level, and the trading volume of the 01 - contract is low, so it is not considered for now [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Core Contradiction and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradiction - The core contradiction affecting log price trends is not evident. Spot price drops and foreign quote decreases have been priced in. If the 11 - contract replicates the 09 - contract's pattern with low buyer delivery willingness, prices may fall further, but the current timing is inappropriate. Spot prices were stable this week, with no significant supply - demand imbalances. Prices are slowly declining with low volatility, and the bottom space is limited. Next week, inventory is expected to continue to decrease [3]. - Near - end trading logic: There is no delivery profit in the near - end price. The futures price is below all specification warehouse - receipt costs but has not reached the buyer's acceptance price. The long - short conflict is not clear, and the price will move within the 780 - 820 range until new factors emerge [4]. - Distant - end trading expectation: The 01 - contract price cannot be accurately estimated. Overseas shipping volume, CFR quotes, the trading status of the 11 - contract, and subsequent delivery volume are unknown. The monthly spread structure is reasonable, and the 01 - contract has low trading volume, so it is not considered [5]. 1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - Market positioning: The market is in a downward trend. After a rebound on reduced positions, it is in low - volatility oscillation, moving towards the previous low. - Strategy suggestions: Mainly short at high prices; use the interval grid strategy with 805 as the central price, a grid interval of 5 - 10, and an interval range of 790 - 820. Set the short position twice the long position, and pay attention to risk control. If the grid is broken and exceeds the risk - control range, stop losses promptly [8]. 1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - For inventory management, when log imports are high and inventory is at a high level, and there are concerns about price drops, it is recommended to short log futures to lock in profits and compensate for production costs. The hedging tool is lg2511, with a 25% hedging ratio and an entry recommendation between 820 - 830 [11]. - For procurement management, when the regular procurement inventory is low and procurement is based on orders, it is recommended to buy log futures at present to lock in procurement costs in advance. The hedging tool is lg2511, with a 25% hedging ratio and an entry recommendation between 780 - 800 [11]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Concerns - Bullish information: Inventory is seasonally declining and at a historical low [11]. - Bearish information: Outbound volume is weak; foreign quotes have dropped by $2; there is uncertainty about further spot price cuts [12][14]. - Spot transaction information: The prices of various log specifications in different ports remained stable this week, with varying degrees of year - on - year decline [12][15]. Chapter 3: Futures Market Interpretation 3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - After a rebound on reduced positions on Monday, the futures market mainly oscillated downward. There was a slight increase in positions and a price drop on Friday. With no new variables, trading was characterized by low volatility this week, and capital mainly flowed out [16]. 3.2 Basis and Monthly Spread Structure - The monthly spread structure maintains a C - structure. The price decline of the delivery - month contract is more obvious, and there are few changes in the structure except for the delivery - month contract [19]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Valuation - The warehouse - receipt cost in the Yangtze River Delta region is around 822, and in Shandong, it is around 817. The price at which buyers are willing to take delivery, calculated at a 20 - point discount on the spot price, is around 782. The current price is within a reasonable range [24]. 4.2 Import Profit - In Shandong, imports of 3.9/5.9 - meter medium - grade A logs continue to incur losses, and the losses deepen after the spot price drop. In the Yangtze River Delta region, the profit of 6 - meter medium - grade A logs is also negative but better than in Shandong [25]. Chapter 5: Supply - Demand and Inventory Projection - From September 13th to 22nd, 9 ships are expected to arrive (- 2), with a total cargo volume of 328,000 cubic meters (- 90,000). - Based on the current daily outbound volume, significant inventory reduction is expected next week, continuing the seasonal inventory - reduction trend. On the demand side, the daily outbound volume is 61,200 cubic meters (- 800), showing a slight weakening trend. Whether the demand weakening will continue needs further observation. The reduction of national subsidies may reduce support for pallets, and the continuous decline of the second - hand housing market since July is not a positive sign for the furniture market. The real - estate sector remains weak [32]. - On the supply side, with the decline in CFR quotes, the possibility of continuous high shipping volume is low. Supply and demand are expected to remain in a weak balance [33].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The log spot price continues to decline, the new round of FOB quotes is lowered, there is still supply pressure in April, and demand support is insufficient. The current futures price is at a neutral - low level with strong cost support, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate in the range of [810 - 850]. Meanwhile, the tariff upgrade during the Tomb - Sweeping Festival has led to weak macro sentiment, and market sentiment disturbances should be watched out for [3][4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures and Spot Prices - **Futures Price Changes**: On April 3, compared with April 2, the price of log 2507 increased by 1.0 yuan to 829.0 yuan, with a 0.12% increase; log 2509 decreased by 3.0 yuan to 840.0 yuan, a - 0.36% decrease; log 2511 decreased by 3.5 yuan to 845.5 yuan, a - 0.41% decrease [2]. - **Spread and Basis Changes**: The 7 - 9 spread increased by 4.0 to - 11.0; the 9 - 11 spread increased by 0.5 to - 5.5; the 7 - 11 spread increased by 4.5 to - 16.5. The 07 contract basis decreased by 1.0 to - 49.0; the 09 contract basis increased by 3.0 to - 60.0; the 11 contract basis increased by 3.5 to - 65.5 [2]. - **Spot Price Changes**: Spot prices at ports such as Rizhao Port and Taicang Port remained unchanged on April 3 compared with April 2. The FOB price of radiata pine 4 - meter medium A decreased by 6 dollars to 115 dollars per JAS cubic meter, a - 4.96% decrease, while the FOB price of spruce 11.8 - meter remained unchanged at 120 euros per JAS cubic meter [2]. - **Cost Changes**: The RMB - US dollar exchange rate increased by 0.03 to 7.306 yuan, and the import theoretical cost decreased by 38.64 yuan to 825.35 yuan, a - 4% decrease [2]. Supply - **Monthly Supply**: As of February 28, port freight volume increased by 66.8 million cubic meters to 197.9 million cubic meters compared with December 31, a 50.98% increase. The number of departing ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea increased by 9 to 58, an 18.37% increase [2]. Inventory - **Weekly Inventory**: As of March 28, the log inventory in major ports in China was 360 million cubic meters, a decrease of 4 million cubic meters compared with March 21, a - 1.10% decrease. In Shandong, it was 189.8 million cubic meters, a decrease of 2.5 million cubic meters, a - 1.30% decrease; in Jiangsu, it was 128.45 million cubic meters, a decrease of 3.0 million cubic meters, a - 2.30% decrease [2][3]. Demand - **Weekly Demand**: As of March 28, the average daily log outbound volume in China was 6.7 million cubic meters, an increase of 0.28 million cubic meters compared with March 21, a 4% increase. In Shandong, it was 3.30 million cubic meters, a decrease of 0.08 million cubic meters, a - 2% decrease; in Jiangsu, it was 2.76 million cubic meters, an increase of 0.35 million cubic meters, a 15% increase [3].