Group 1: Market Overview - In the week of December 29, 2025, to January 4, 2026, China is expected to receive 15 shipments of New Zealand softwood logs, an increase of 6 shipments from the previous week, representing a week-on-week increase of 67% [1] - The total volume of logs arriving at ports is 510,500 cubic meters, which is an increase of 204,500 cubic meters from the previous week, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 66.8% [1] - The average daily outflow of softwood logs from 13 ports in 7 provinces in China was 58,300 cubic meters, a decrease of 7.75% from the previous week [1] Group 2: Inventory and Supply - As of December 26, 2025, the total inventory of softwood logs in China was 2.54 million cubic meters, a week-on-week decrease of 2.31% [1] - Radiata pine inventory stood at 2.16 million cubic meters, down 1.37% week-on-week [1] - North American wood inventory remained stable at 70,000 cubic meters, while spruce/fir inventory decreased by 10,000 cubic meters to 150,000 cubic meters [1] Group 3: Futures Market Insights - According to Nanhua Futures, the weekly volatility in the futures market remains low, fluctuating between 765 and 785 yuan per cubic meter, with the main contract holding a position of 11,000 lots, indicating a capital outflow [2] - Newhu Futures noted that while inventory has decreased and is below last year's levels, the pressure from incoming shipments is expected to rise in the coming weeks, with terminal demand showing no significant improvement [3] - The overall market is characterized by a lack of major contradictions in fundamentals, with domestic and international price discrepancies limiting significant downward movement, leading to expectations of low-level fluctuations in the main contract [3]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The current situation features high inventory, weak spot prices, and limited upward momentum in the futures market. Short - term supply pressure has increased significantly, but long - term overseas supply may tighten. Demand is seasonally weak, and the current price has partly reflected negative expectations. In the short term, the price will mainly fluctuate within a narrow range with relatively limited downside space [1][4][5]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies Comprehensive Analysis - Supply side: This week, New Zealand shipped 14 vessels (510,000 cubic meters) of logs to China, a week - on - week increase of 7 vessels (220,000 cubic meters). The arrival volume at 13 Chinese ports was 465,000 cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 48%. However, the Canadian timber industry's capacity has shrunk due to US tariffs, and with the expected winter shutdown in North America, long - term overseas supply may tighten. Inventory continues to accumulate, with the total domestic softwood log inventory at 2.95 million cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 0.68%. Radiata pine inventory accounts for over 80%, concentrated in Shandong and Jiangsu ports. - Demand side: Demand is seasonally weak. The average daily outbound volume at 13 ports is 65,600 cubic meters, a week - on - week decrease of 1.06%. The decline in outbound volume in Fujian and Hebei is significant. The capital availability rate of construction sites has increased slightly by 0.04 percentage points to 59.8%, but there are few new projects, and the transmission of terminal demand is limited [4]. Logic Analysis - On the spot side, the prices at major ports have dropped by 10 - 30 yuan per cubic meter. The price of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine in Taicang is 750 yuan per cubic meter, a year - on - year decrease of 6.25%. The overseas market price remains at $116 but has hidden discounts, and traders' willingness to accept vessels is low, with limited cost support. The short - term arrival volume surge and inventory accumulation on the supply side suppress valuation, and the seasonal decline in demand further weakens the upward momentum of prices. The current price has partly reflected negative expectations. If overseas shipments decrease seasonally or domestic terminal demand improves, the valuation is expected to recover marginally. In the short term, it will mainly fluctuate within a narrow range with relatively limited downside space [5]. Strategy - Unilateral: Wait and see. Close previous short positions. Aggressive investors can consider buying a small amount near the previous low. - Arbitrage: Pay attention to the 1 - 3 reverse spread. - Options: Wait and see [6]. Weekly Data Tracking Log Supply - New Zealand log shipments: From November 17 - 23, 2025, the expected number of New Zealand log vessels arriving at 13 Chinese ports was 13, an increase of 3 vessels compared to last week, a week - on - week increase of 30%. The total arrival volume was about 465,000 cubic meters, an increase of 150,000 cubic meters compared to last week, a week - on - week increase of 48%. In October 2025, China's imports of softwood logs from New Zealand were about 1.4958 million cubic meters, a month - on - month decrease of 0.23% and a year - on - year increase of 12.47%. From January to October 2025, China's imports of softwood logs from New Zealand were about 15.0078 million cubic meters, a year - on - year increase of 1.80%. In October 2025, China's imports of radiata pine were about 1.4836 million cubic meters, a month - on - month increase of 2.24% and a year - on - year increase of 16.34%. From January to October 2025, China's imports of radiata pine were about 14.6481 million cubic meters, a year - on - year increase of 1.35% [13]. Log Inventory - As of November 14, the total domestic log inventory by material was 2.95 million cubic meters, an increase of 20,000 cubic meters compared to last week, a week - on - week increase of 0.68%. Radiata pine inventory was 2.43 million cubic meters, an increase of 20,000 cubic meters compared to last week, a week - on - week increase of 0.83%. North American log inventory was 90,000 cubic meters, a decrease of 10,000 cubic meters compared to last week, a week - on - week decrease of 10.00%. Spruce/fir inventory was 210,000 cubic meters, an increase of 10,000 cubic meters compared to last week, a week - on - week increase of 5.00%. - By province, as of November 14, the total inventory at 3 ports in Shandong was 1,954,000 cubic meters, an increase of 39,000 cubic meters compared to the previous period. The total inventory at 3 ports in Jiangsu was 836,562 cubic meters, an increase of 39,000 cubic meters compared to the previous period. The total inventory at 3 ports in Fujian was 52,923 cubic meters, a decrease of 16,810 cubic meters compared to the previous period [16]. Log Demand - As of November 14, the average daily outbound volume of logs at 13 ports was 65,600 cubic meters, a decrease of 7,000 cubic meters compared to the previous period, a week - on - week decrease of 1.06%. Among them, the average daily total outbound volume at 3 ports in Shandong was 36,700 cubic meters, a decrease of 12,000 cubic meters compared to the previous period, a week - on - week decrease of 3.17%. The average daily total outbound volume at 3 ports in Jiangsu was 24,400 cubic meters, an increase of 16,000 cubic meters compared to the previous period, a week - on - week increase of 7.02%. The average daily total outbound volume at 3 ports in Fujian was 2,700 cubic meters, a decrease of 11,000 cubic meters compared to the previous period, a week - on - week decrease of 28.95%. - As of November 18, the capital availability rate of sample construction sites was 59.8%, a week - on - week increase of 0.04 percentage points. The capital availability rate of non - housing construction projects was 61.11%, a week - on - week increase of 0.05 percentage points. The capital availability rate of housing construction projects was 53.29%, a week - on - week increase of 0.05 percentage points. Although the capital availability rate has stopped declining slightly and the construction progress of some projects in East China has accelerated slightly, the number of new projects is still small [22]. Log Prices - Radiata pine and spruce/fir prices: In Shandong, the price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs at Rizhao Port this week was 750 yuan per cubic meter, unchanged from last week and a year - on - year decrease of 50 yuan per cubic meter (6.25%). In Jiangsu, the price of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs at Taicang Port this week was 750 yuan per cubic meter, a week - on - week decrease of 10 yuan per cubic meter (1.32%) and a year - on - year decrease of 50 yuan per cubic meter (6.25%). In Shandong, the price of 11.8 - meter 20cm + spruce logs at Rizhao Port this week was 1,180 yuan per cubic meter, unchanged from last week and a year - on - year increase of 100 yuan per cubic meter (9.26%) [29]. - Downstream timber prices: For radiata pine timber, the mainstream transaction price in the Shandong market was 1,260 yuan per cubic meter, and in the Jiangsu market, it was also 1,260 yuan per cubic meter. For spruce/white pine timber, the mainstream transaction price in the Shandong market was 1,830 yuan per cubic meter, and in the Jiangsu market, it was 1,680 yuan per cubic meter [33]. Imported Log Costs - Radiata pine FOB price: In November 2025, the FOB price (CFR) of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs was $116 per JAS cubic meter, an increase of $1 per cubic meter compared to last month. - Spruce FOB price: In November 2025, the FOB price (CFR) of 11.8 - meter 20 + spruce logs was 126 euros per JAS cubic meter, an increase of 1 euro per cubic meter compared to last month. In November, New Zealand log suppliers' quotes were firm, but domestic traders' willingness to accept vessels was low. There were many quote adjustments within the month, and some suppliers' offer prices had hidden discounts. It is expected that the FOB price of New Zealand radiata pine may be adjusted downward in December [39][40].

Market Overview - As of August 4, 2025, the spot price of 5.9-meter A-grade radiata pine in Shandong increased slightly from 770 CNY/m³ to 780 CNY/m³ [1] - During the week of August 1, the inventory of coniferous logs remained stable compared to the previous week, with a slight decrease in radiata pine and an accumulation of North American timber [1] - For the week of August 4-10, 2025, 14 ships carrying New Zealand logs are expected to arrive at 18 ports in China, an increase of 8 ships from the previous week, representing a 133% week-on-week increase; the total volume arriving is approximately 425,000 m³, up by 204,000 m³ or 92% from the previous week [1] Institutional Insights - Southwest Futures reported that speculative sentiment in the futures market is rising, with some spot companies entering the market to stock up, which strengthens traders' confidence in raising prices; a strong bullish sentiment is expected in the short term [2] - According to Ruida Futures, current port inventories are at a neutral level for the year; external prices have declined, and the cost support from imports exceeds domestic prices; overall downstream demand for logs is marginally recovering, indicating a balanced supply-demand situation [3] - Ruida Futures suggests monitoring support around 790 CNY for the LG2509 contract and resistance near 850 CNY, recommending a range trading strategy [3]

Core Viewpoint - The launch of lumber futures on the Dalian Commodity Exchange marks a historic transformation for China's timber industry, providing companies with new tools to mitigate market risks amid declining real estate and increasing international trade tensions [1] Industry Status - The Shandong Port Rizhao Port Group began lumber operations in 1999, with a record monthly throughput of 830,000 cubic meters in March this year, making it a major lumber import port [2] - The average monthly arrival volume at Rizhao has decreased from 600,000 cubic meters in 2021 to around 300,000 cubic meters this year, reflecting a significant drop in market demand [2] - Companies like Hubei Fuhan Wood Industry have seen profits decline drastically, with the profit margin for imported Russian timber dropping from 7-10 yuan per cubic meter to the breakeven point [2] - The processing segment is also undergoing deep adjustments, with companies reducing production capacity and shifting focus from construction materials to packaging and pallet production [2][3] Empowerment through Futures - The introduction of lumber futures has allowed companies to hedge against price fluctuations, transforming their approach from passive to proactive risk management [3] - Hubei Fuhan Wood Industry has established a professional team to engage in futures trading, focusing on hedging strategies to mitigate price volatility [3][4] - Companies like Shandong Guantong have begun participating in futures trading to manage inventory and purchasing strategies more effectively [4] New Ecosystem for Market Integration - The Chinese lumber market is undergoing structural adjustments, with more companies adopting a combination of futures and spot trading to adapt to changing market conditions [5] - Companies are increasingly focusing on inventory control and exploring futures contracts to enhance their operational strategies [5] - The establishment of a national unified price system through futures trading is seen as a significant advancement for the industry, reducing discrepancies in measurement standards and facilitating smoother transactions [6][8] Standardization and Quality Control - The launch of lumber futures has prompted efforts to standardize measurement practices across regions, addressing previous inconsistencies that hindered cross-regional trade [8] - The implementation of national quality standards is expected to enhance the efficiency and safety of lumber transactions, benefiting the overall industry [8][9] - The growing participation in the lumber futures market is contributing to the emergence of a transparent and efficient national market, reshaping traditional practices in the timber industry [9]