大和发表研报指，华润啤酒管理层强调迎合实时零售等新渠道，并开发新口味(如果汁啤酒、茶味啤 酒)，以迎合中国年轻消费者快速变化的喜好。大和相信，因润啤拥有强大的执行力和灵活策略，能应 对中国消费者喜好的快速变化，持续偏好润啤多于其主要竞争对手。 因平均售价和利润率扩张速度可能放缓，大和下调润啤2025至2027年每股核心盈测4%；重申"买入"评 级，并将目标价从38港元下调至36港元，基于目标明年市盈率18倍。 ...

大和发布研报称，于上周五(14日)在大和香港投资会议上接待了华润啤酒(00291)的管理层，他们强调迎 合即时零售等新渠道，并开发新口味(如果汁啤酒、茶味啤酒)，以迎合中国年轻消费者快速变化的喜 好。因平均售价和利润率扩张速度可能放缓，大和下调润啤2025至2027年每股核心盈测4%;重申"买 入"评级，并将目标价从38港元下调至36港元，基于目标明年市盈率18倍。大和相信，因润啤拥有强大 的执行力和灵活策略，能应对中国消费者喜好的快速变化，持续偏好润啤多于其主要竞争对手。 ...

智通财经APP获悉，大和发布研报称，于上周五(14日)在大和香港投资会议上接待了华润啤酒(00291)的 管理层，他们强调迎合即时零售等新渠道，并开发新口味(如果汁啤酒、茶味啤酒)，以迎合中国年轻消 费者快速变化的喜好。因平均售价和利润率扩张速度可能放缓，大和下调润啤2025至2027年每股核心盈 测4%;重申"买入"评级，并将目标价从38港元下调至36港元，基于目标明年市盈率18倍。大和相信，因 润啤拥有强大的执行力和灵活策略，能应对中国消费者喜好的快速变化，持续偏好润啤多于其主要竞争 对手。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company is expected to continue optimizing operational efficiency in the first half of 2025, with promising growth potential for store expansion in the future [1] Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company reported revenue of 3.24 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.6%, with a gross profit of 717 million yuan, up 17.8%. The gross margin was 22.1%, down 0.7 percentage points year-on-year. Net profit reached 190 million yuan, a significant increase of 122.5%, while core operating profit also stood at 190 million yuan, up 52.3% [1] - The company plans to distribute an interim dividend of 0.0716 yuan per share, totaling 190 million yuan, with a payout ratio of 100% [1] Revenue Breakdown - Revenue from franchise sales was 2.595 billion yuan, up 11% year-on-year, while sales to other channels (mainly B2B) reached 560 million yuan, a substantial increase of 125% [1] - As of the first half of 2025, the company operated 10,400 stores, an 8% increase year-on-year, with a net addition of 250 stores, including 270 new stores in rural areas. Average revenue per franchise store increased by 8% year-on-year [1] Product and Membership Growth - The company launched 175 new SKUs in the hot pot and barbecue categories in the first half of 2025, enhancing its product offerings and introducing various meal sets and fruit beers [1] - The registered membership reached approximately 50.3 million, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 62.8% [1] Cost and Efficiency Improvements - The gross margin was 22.1%, down 0.7 percentage points year-on-year. The selling expense ratio improved to 9.5%, down 1.8 percentage points, mainly due to enhanced advertising efficiency. The management expense ratio also decreased to 6.5%, down 1.9 percentage points, attributed to steady operational efficiency improvements [1] Strategic Expansion Plans - The company aims to enhance market penetration in existing regions and expand its store network into new areas, focusing on county and rural markets, with preliminary plans to explore overseas markets [2] - In terms of supply chain, the company adheres to a "single product, single factory" strategy and plans to establish a food production base in Danzhou, Hainan Province, to improve bargaining power and optimize production costs [2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Cautious Accumulate" [1]. Core Views - The company's operational efficiency continues to improve in H1 2025, with promising growth potential for future store expansions [2]. - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating and raises the forecast for the company's net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 to 4.20 billion, 5.05 billion, and 6.17 billion RMB respectively [11]. Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is reported at 6.094 billion RMB, with projections of 6.470 billion for 2024, 7.451 billion for 2025, 8.309 billion for 2026, and 9.471 billion for 2027, reflecting a growth rate of -15%, 6%, 15%, 12%, and 14% respectively [5]. - Gross profit for 2023 is 1.351 billion RMB, with estimates of 1.417 billion for 2024, 1.654 billion for 2025, 1.845 billion for 2026, and 2.103 billion for 2027 [5]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 240 million RMB for 2023, decreasing to 231 million in 2024, then increasing significantly to 420 million in 2025, 505 million in 2026, and 617 million in 2027, with growth rates of 4%, -4%, 82%, 20%, and 22% respectively [5]. - The company plans to distribute an interim dividend of 0.0716 RMB per share, totaling 1.90 billion RMB, with a dividend payout ratio of 100% [11]. Operational Highlights - In H1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 32.40 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 21.6%, with a gross profit of 7.17 billion RMB, up 17.8% [11]. - The number of stores reached 10,400, an 8% increase year-on-year, with a net addition of 250 stores in H1 2025 [11]. - The company introduced 175 new SKUs in the hot pot and barbecue categories, enhancing its product offerings [11]. Market Positioning - The company aims to strengthen its supply chain and expand into lower-tier markets, with plans to explore overseas markets [11]. - The report suggests a target price of 4.24 HKD for 2025, based on a PE ratio of 26x, which is above the industry average [11].