(本文来自第一财经) 瑞银集团CEO塞尔吉奥·埃尔莫蒂表示，在地缘政治不确定性加剧的背景下，投资者若试图抛售美国资 产，将是在进行一场"危险的赌注"。埃尔莫蒂在瑞士达沃斯世界经济论坛期间指出："分散投资 却远离 美国（资产）是不现实的。美国是全球最强大的经济体，我不会押注其走弱。"周二，美国国债与标普 500指数股票同步遭到抛售，投资者正消化美国总统特朗普在推动格陵兰岛相关诉求过程中，与北约盟 友关系再度紧张的最新进展。与此同时，丹麦养老基金 AkademikerPension 计划在本月底前退出美国国 债市场。作为全球最大的财富管理机构，瑞银在美国市场与欧洲投资之间均有深度布局，管理资产规模 接近7万亿美元。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The previously reliable strategy of investing in U.S. stocks while holding dollars has failed, with foreign investors suffering greater losses than domestic investors, highlighting the risks associated with currency fluctuations and market volatility [2][3]. Group 1: Investment Strategy and Market Performance - The S&P 500 index has declined by 6% this year, leading to a 14% loss for investors measuring returns in euros and yen [2]. - Foreign investors are now seeking to hedge their U.S. stock investments, which were valued at approximately $18 trillion as of last December, nearly one-fifth of the total U.S. stock market capitalization [2]. - The overall currency hedging ratio for foreign investors in U.S. stocks is currently at 23%, significantly lower than nearly 50% in 2020 [3]. Group 2: Hedging Costs and Strategies - The cost of hedging against currency depreciation has increased, with three-month hedging costs for investors in Swiss francs or yen at about 4% annualized, and over 2% for eurozone investors [3][4]. - The trading volume of euro-to-dollar options has reached record highs, indicating a growing interest in hedging strategies amid increased volatility [4]. - Some investors, like those at Prevoir Asset Management, have experienced significant losses, with their funds down approximately 18% this year due to unpredictable currency fluctuations [4]. Group 3: Market Outlook and Predictions - Analysts predict that the trend of a stronger euro and weaker dollar may persist for several years, with Deutsche Bank forecasting the euro-to-dollar exchange rate to reach 1.30 by the end of 2027 [5]. - Allianz economists warn that even a small outflow of international investment from the U.S. could lead to significant distortions in exchange rates and global asset prices [5]. - Group Richelieu's strategy of hedging against currency risks has helped mitigate some losses in the U.S. stock market, with the euro rising from approximately 1.05 to over 1.15 against the dollar [5].