大华继显分析师在一份报告中称，阿里巴巴2026财年第三财季的业绩可能乏善可陈，不过，随着对竞争 激烈的即时配送领域的投资放缓，利润率应会逐步回升。这些分析师对核心电商业务仍持谨慎乐观态 度，因该业务面临高基数效应和竞争，但他们看好云业务。大华继显预计，季度客户管理收入将同比增 长3.5%，非公认会计准则净利润将下降45%。该券商预测阿里巴巴云业务收入将飙升36%。该券商维持 对阿里巴巴H股的买入评级和206港元的目标价，并指出阿里巴巴仍是中国唯一一家拥有全栈AI能力的 上市公司。 大华继显分析师在一份报告中称，阿里巴巴2026财年第三财季的业绩可能乏善可陈，不过，随着对竞争 激烈的即时配送领域的投资放缓，利润率应会逐步回升。这些分析师对核心电商业务仍持谨慎乐观态 度，因该业务面临高基数效应和竞争，但他们看好云业务。大华继显预计，季度客户管理收入将同比增 长3.5%，非公认会计准则净利润将下降45%。该券商预测阿里巴巴云业务收入将飙升36%。该券商维持 对阿里巴巴H股的买入评级和206港元的目标价，并指出阿里巴巴仍是中国唯一一家拥有全栈AI能力的 上市公司。 责任编辑：王永生 责任编辑：王永生 ...

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley predicts that Alibaba's comprehensive profitability will reach an inflection point in Q3 2025 and significantly recover in Q4, driven by a substantial reduction in losses from the food delivery business and accelerated growth in cloud services due to strong AI demand [1][2][3] Business Performance - The food delivery business is expected to see a 40% quarter-on-quarter reduction in losses, projected to narrow to approximately 21 billion yuan by Q4 2025 [1][3][4] - The cloud business is anticipated to grow by 37% year-on-year in Q4 2025, benefiting from robust AI demand [1][3][7] Strategic Shift - Alibaba's strategic focus is shifting from a user-scale-driven growth model to a more efficient, profitability-driven approach, indicating a fundamental transformation in its growth strategy [2][5][6] Financial Adjustments - Morgan Stanley has adjusted its revenue forecasts for Alibaba, lowering the projections for FY26 and FY27 by 1% and 2% respectively, due to high base effects impacting customer management revenue (CMR) growth [8] - Despite these adjustments, the firm maintains a positive outlook on Alibaba's stock, reiterating a "buy" rating and setting new target prices of $230 for US shares and HK$225 for Hong Kong shares [3][8] Market Dynamics - The flash purchase business is showing a clear path to profitability, with unit economic losses halving compared to July/August, driven by improved product mix and reduced delivery costs [4][6] - The cloud business is experiencing strong demand that exceeds supply capabilities, leading to potential increases in capital expenditures beyond the planned 380 billion yuan over three years [6][7]