Core Viewpoint - Guosen Securities maintains an "outperform" rating for Alibaba-W (09988) while slightly adjusting revenue forecasts for FY2026-FY2028 to 1,050.3 billion, 1,187.9 billion, and 1,305.0 billion yuan respectively, primarily due to low revenue contribution from instant retail business during its investment phase [1] Revenue Forecast Adjustments - Revenue forecasts for FY2026-FY2028 have been adjusted to 1,050.3 billion, 1,187.9 billion, and 1,305.0 billion yuan [1] - The adjustment is attributed to the low average transaction value in the instant retail business during its initial investment phase [1] Net Profit Forecast Adjustments - Adjusted net profit forecasts for FY2026-FY2028 are set at 108.4 billion, 150.2 billion, and 177.2 billion yuan [1] - The adjustments are due to higher-than-expected investment in flash purchase business and increased computational power investments related to AI applications and other business segments [1] Upcoming Financial Report Expectations - Alibaba is expected to release its Q2 FY2026 financial report soon [1] - Guosen Securities anticipates a 4% year-on-year revenue growth for Q2 FY26, projecting revenue of 245.6 billion yuan [1] - The international digital commerce group and cloud intelligence revenue are expected to grow by 17% and 30% year-on-year respectively, while the Chinese e-commerce group is projected to decline by 13% quarter-on-quarter [1] Profitability Expectations - For Q2 FY26, adjusted EBITA is expected to be 8.5 billion yuan, reflecting a 79% year-on-year decline [1] - The adjusted EBITA margin is projected at 3.5%, down 13.6 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to peak investment in flash purchase business and increased computational demands for AI applications [1]

Core Viewpoint - CITIC Securities has issued a "Buy" rating for Alibaba-W (09988), highlighting the company's strategic upgrades and potential for growth in the retail sector [1] Group 1: Business Strategy and Developments - Since February 2025, Alibaba has upgraded its three major platform layouts, entering the instant retail sector through its food delivery business [1] - The food delivery service acts as a high-frequency essential traffic entry point, effectively driving local life and e-commerce businesses, positioning the platform to capture future retail competition [1] - The "One Taobao" strategy has been upgraded, with organizational adjustments and comprehensive integration of member benefits [1] Group 2: User Engagement and Market Position - The launch of flash purchase services has significantly improved user acquisition and retention, with differentiated competition in categories such as apparel, electronics, and beauty products [1] - The rapid replenishment of delivery personnel enhances operational capacity [1] Group 3: Market Outlook and Financial Projections - CITIC Securities anticipates a dual oligopoly market structure centered around Alibaba and Meituan, driven by a dual-model approach to develop a full range of businesses [1] - The firm projects that from FY2026 to FY2028, Alibaba could contribute an additional 1 trillion GMV [1] - With a focus on scaling and efficiency optimization, the flash purchase business is expected to achieve stable profitability contributing up to 18.3 billion yuan, with a potential market value increase of nearly 200 billion yuan by 2026 under optimistic valuation scenarios [1]

该行表示，考虑阿里资金优势突出，认为中期预计形成以阿里、美团为核心的双寡头竞争格局。依靠双 模式发展全品类业务，该行预计FY2026- FY2028有望贡献1万亿增量GMV。公司强调提升规模后优化效 率，UE改善趋势明确下，该行预计闪购业务稳态盈利贡献可达183亿元，乐观估值情境下，基于远期估 值折现，2026年潜在市值提升空间近2,000亿元。 智通财经APP获悉，中信证券发布研报称，予阿里巴巴-W(09988)"买入"评级。2025年2月以来，公司三 大平台布局升级，以外卖切入即时零售赛道。外卖业务作为高频刚需流量入口，能够有效拉动本地生活 及电商业务，助力平台占领未来零售业态竞争制高点。阿里巴巴"一个淘宝"战略升级，组织架构协同调 整，会员权益全面打通。闪购上线后，用户拉新与粘性提升效果显著，品类供给依托电商商家优势，在 服饰、电子产品及美妆个护领域形成差异化竞争，同时骑手运力快速补给。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The focus of the market has shifted from basic competition in subsidies and order volume to a comprehensive assessment of the long-term strategic determination and financial strength of companies like Meituan, Alibaba, and JD.com as their financial results are released [1] Financial Performance - Alibaba's free cash flow has shown a significant net outflow due to substantial investments in high-tech areas like cloud services, with a reported free cash flow outflow in Q2 2025 [2] - Meituan's free cash flow is expected to turn into a net outflow as its food delivery business enters the traditional peak season in Q3 2025, potentially increasing subsidy amounts [2][3] Cash Reserves and Liquidity - As of mid-2025, Meituan has a total of approximately 189 billion RMB in cash and cash equivalents, indicating a strong liquidity position [2] - In extreme stress tests, Meituan's monetary assets can cover short-term debts of about 93.5 billion RMB, leaving a cash reserve of approximately 98.6 billion RMB [2][3] Future Cash Flow Projections - Meituan's EBITDA for the full year of 2025 is projected to be -4.5 billion RMB, with a significant outflow of free cash flow expected in the second half of 2025, exceeding 20 billion RMB [2][3] - If subsidies for food delivery and flash purchase businesses cease by the end of 2025, Meituan would still have sufficient cash reserves to manage large cash outflows during peak seasons [3] Competitive Landscape - Taobao Flash Purchase has announced a 50 billion RMB subsidy over the next 12 months, which could intensify competition with Meituan's core business [4] - If competition remains intense in 2026, Meituan may face cash outflows of 10 to 20 billion RMB, potentially reducing its cash reserves to between 50 and 70 billion RMB [4] Asset Structure Optimization - Meituan has shown signs of optimizing its asset structure, with long-term investments totaling 43.4 billion RMB as of mid-2025, down from 48.8 billion RMB at the end of 2024 [5][7] - The company has actively reduced long-term financial investments to increase cash reserves, indicating a strategic shift to support core business development [7] Investment Portfolio - Meituan holds significant stakes in companies like Li Auto and Maoyan Entertainment, with the potential for divesting from Li Auto to generate cash flow [9][10] - The fair value of Meituan's investment in Li Auto is estimated at around 22 billion RMB, indicating a potential floating profit of approximately 8 billion RMB [9][11] Market Impact - Any potential divestment from Li Auto could exert short-term pressure on its stock price, although the long-term value is expected to reflect its fundamentals [12]

Core Viewpoint - The focus of the market has shifted from basic competition in subsidies and order volume to a comprehensive assessment of the long-term strategic determination and financial strength of companies like Meituan, Alibaba, and JD.com as their financial reports are released [1] Financial Performance - Alibaba's free cash flow has shown a significant net outflow due to substantial investments in high-tech areas like cloud services, with a free cash flow of negative figures in Q2 2025 [1] - Meituan is expected to see a similar trend, with its free cash flow likely turning into a net outflow as its food delivery business enters the traditional peak season in Q3 2025 [1] Cash Reserves and Liquidity - As of mid-2025, Meituan has a total of 101.7 billion yuan in cash and cash equivalents, with restricted cash of 17.9 billion yuan and short-term investments of 69.4 billion yuan, totaling approximately 189 billion yuan, indicating strong liquidity [2] - In extreme stress tests, Meituan's monetary assets can cover its short-term debts of about 93.5 billion yuan, leaving a cash reserve of approximately 98.6 billion yuan, suggesting a solid financial cushion [2] Future Cash Flow Projections - Meituan's EBITDA for the full year of 2025 is projected to be negative 4.5 billion yuan, with a significant cash outflow expected in the second half of 2025, potentially exceeding 20 billion yuan [2][3] - If the high subsidy expenditures for food delivery and flash purchase businesses continue, Meituan's cash reserves could decrease to between 50 billion and 70 billion yuan by the end of 2026 [3] Asset Optimization Strategies - Meituan has shown signs of optimizing its asset structure, with long-term investments totaling 43.4 billion yuan as of mid-2025, down from 48.8 billion yuan at the end of 2024, indicating a strategy to increase cash reserves [4][5] - The company has also reduced its long-term financial investments by 6.4 billion yuan and short-term financial investments by 2.8 billion yuan, reflecting proactive measures to bolster cash reserves [5] Potential Asset Liquidation - Meituan's significant holdings in listed companies, particularly in Li Auto, may be considered for liquidation to support core business development if necessary [6][8] - The potential sale of Li Auto shares could provide substantial cash flow and significantly enhance the company's net profit, given the floating profit of approximately 8 billion yuan from this investment [8] Market Impact on Li Auto - If Meituan decides to reduce its stake in Li Auto, it may exert downward pressure on Li Auto's stock price, although the impact may be limited if Li Auto maintains strong fundamentals and competitive products [9]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Meituan-W (03690.HK) is "Outperform the Market" [6][25]. Core Views - The report indicates that increased subsidies have negatively impacted operational performance, with a significant decline in adjusted profit by 89% year-on-year for Q2 2025. Revenue reached 91.84 billion yuan, up 11.7% year-on-year, but operating profit fell to 230 million yuan, down 98% [1][8]. - The core local commerce segment remains the primary source of profit, generating 65.35 billion yuan in revenue, a 7.7% increase year-on-year. However, operating profit in this segment dropped by 75.6% [2][11]. - New business losses have narrowed sequentially, with revenue of 26.49 billion yuan, up 22.8% year-on-year, and an operating loss of 1.88 billion yuan, showing improvement from previous quarters [3][12]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, adjusted profit decreased by 89% to 1.49 billion yuan, with an adjusted net profit margin of 1.6%, down 14.9 percentage points year-on-year [1][8]. - The core local commerce segment's revenue was 65.35 billion yuan, with a significant decline in operating profit margin to 5.7%, down 19.4 percentage points year-on-year [2][11]. - New business revenue reached 26.49 billion yuan, with a narrowed operating loss of 1.88 billion yuan, improving from previous quarters [3][12]. Revenue Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are as follows: 370.34 billion yuan in 2025, 423.48 billion yuan in 2026, and 485.09 billion yuan in 2027, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 9.7%, 14.3%, and 14.5% [5][22]. - Adjusted net profit forecasts for the same period are -7.71 billion yuan in 2025, 31.76 billion yuan in 2026, and 46.57 billion yuan in 2027 [5][22]. Market Dynamics - The report highlights that the competitive landscape is intensifying, leading to increased strategic investments by the company to maintain market leadership and brand recognition [3][20]. - The company plans to focus on core areas and expand its supermarket business while exiting underperforming regions [3][12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Meituan-W (03690.HK) [6] Core Views - The company's adjusted profit for Q2 2025 decreased by 89%, with revenue reaching 91.84 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.7% [8] - The core local commerce segment remains the primary source of profit, with revenue of 65.35 billion yuan in Q2 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.7% [2] - Increased subsidies have negatively impacted revenue growth, particularly in the delivery service segment, which saw a decline in growth rates [2][11] - New business losses have narrowed sequentially, with revenue of 26.49 billion yuan in Q2 2025, up 22.8% year-on-year [12] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, the company reported an operating profit of 230 million yuan, down 98% year-on-year, with an operating margin of 0.2%, a decrease of 13.4 percentage points [8] - The adjusted net profit margin was 1.6%, down 14.9 percentage points year-on-year [17] Core Local Commerce - Revenue from core local commerce was 65.35 billion yuan, with delivery services, commissions, online marketing, and other services contributing 23.66 billion, 24.95 billion, 13.55 billion, and 3.19 billion yuan respectively [11] - The operating profit for this segment was 3.72 billion yuan, down 75.6% year-on-year, with an operating margin of 5.7%, a decrease of 19.4 percentage points [11] New Business Developments - New business revenue reached 26.49 billion yuan, with an operating loss of 1.88 billion yuan, improving by 3.1 percentage points sequentially [12] - The company plans to focus on core areas and accelerate the expansion of its supermarket business, aiming to cover all first- and second-tier cities in China [12] Future Outlook - The company expects significant losses in the core local commerce segment in Q3 2025 due to increased strategic investments and competitive pressures [20] - Adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been revised to -7.7 billion, 31.76 billion, and 46.57 billion yuan respectively, reflecting a downward adjustment of -117%, -46%, and -35% [20][21]

Core Viewpoint - CITIC Securities has issued a "buy" rating for Alibaba-W (09988), highlighting the company's significant financial advantages and predicting a dual oligopoly competition landscape in the medium term [1] Group 1: Financial Projections - The firm anticipates that Alibaba could contribute an additional 1 trillion GMV from FY2026 to FY2028 through its dual-mode development strategy across all categories [1] - The report projects that the steady-state profitability contribution from the flash purchase business could reach 18.3 billion yuan, with a potential market value increase of nearly 200 billion yuan by 2026 under optimistic valuation scenarios [1] Group 2: Strategic Developments - Since February 2025, the three major platforms have upgraded their layouts by entering the instant retail sector through food delivery services, which serve as a high-frequency entry point to drive local life and e-commerce businesses [1] - Alibaba's "One Taobao" strategy has been upgraded, with organizational adjustments for better synergy and comprehensive integration of member benefits [1] Group 3: Market Positioning - The launch of the flash purchase service has significantly improved user acquisition and retention, leveraging the advantages of e-commerce merchants to create differentiated competition in categories such as apparel, electronics, and beauty products [1] - The rapid replenishment of delivery personnel is enhancing operational capacity, positioning Alibaba to capture future retail market opportunities [1]

Core Viewpoint - CITIC Securities has issued a "buy" rating for Alibaba-W (09988), highlighting the company's significant financial advantages and the expectation of a duopoly competition landscape in the medium term [1] Group 1: Financial Projections - The firm anticipates that Alibaba's dual-mode development across all categories could contribute an additional 1 trillion GMV from FY2026 to FY2028 [1] - With an emphasis on improving efficiency after scaling, the company expects stable profitability from its flash purchase business to reach 18.3 billion [1] - In an optimistic valuation scenario, the potential market value increase for Alibaba by 2026 could be nearly 200 billion [1] Group 2: Strategic Developments - Since February 2025, the three major platforms have upgraded their layouts, entering the instant retail sector through food delivery [1] - The food delivery business serves as a high-frequency necessity, effectively driving local life and e-commerce operations, positioning the platform to capture future retail competition [1] - Alibaba's "One Taobao" strategy has been upgraded, with organizational adjustments and comprehensive integration of member benefits [1] Group 3: Market Positioning - The launch of the flash purchase service has significantly improved user acquisition and retention, leveraging the advantages of e-commerce merchants in differentiated competition across clothing, electronics, and beauty sectors [1] - The rapid replenishment of delivery personnel enhances operational capacity [1]

Group 1: State-Owned Enterprises Performance - In the first seven months of the year, state-owned enterprises reported total profits of 24,786.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.3% [2] - The total operating revenue for state-owned enterprises was 473,110.9 billion yuan, remaining flat compared to the same period last year [2] Group 2: Support for Artificial Intelligence Development - The National Development and Reform Commission announced multiple measures to support the development of artificial intelligence, including the issuance of computing power vouchers to reduce R&D costs for innovation entities [3] - The initiative aims to integrate hard investments and soft construction to promote AI development [3] Group 3: Brain-Computer Interface Development - Various provinces are drafting implementation plans to promote the development of brain-computer interfaces, with Zhejiang province focusing on creating an industrial ecosystem centered around this technology [4] - The plans include building a key enterprise database and supporting specialized development in the brain-computer interface sector [4] Group 4: Financial Performance of Companies - Huawei reported a revenue of 427 billion yuan for the first half of the year, marking a year-on-year increase of 3.94%, while net profit fell by 32% to 37.1 billion yuan [6] - Dell's second-quarter revenue reached 29.8 billion USD, a 19% year-on-year increase, with AI solutions shipments valued at 10 billion USD in the first half of the fiscal year [13] Group 5: Market Developments - The Apple Store officially launched its flagship store on Douyin, allowing users to purchase Apple products and accessories directly [7] - Pinduoduo is preparing to produce its own short dramas and is actively recruiting talent for this initiative [8] Group 6: Regulatory Changes - Starting August 29, the U.S. Customs began imposing tariffs on small packages valued at 800 USD and below, affecting over 4 million packages daily and impacting global postal networks and cross-border e-commerce [9] - Former President Trump threatened to impose significant tariffs on countries that implement digital taxes, following discussions with Meta Platforms CEO Mark Zuckerberg regarding this issue [10] Group 7: Investment and Financing - Commonwealth Fusion Systems secured 863 million USD in funding, led by Nvidia and Google, bringing its total financing to approximately 3 billion USD since its inception [11] - Several companies, including Hefei Tianyao and Lingmou Intelligent, announced successful funding rounds, indicating a growing interest in semiconductor materials and AI technologies [14]