Investment Rating - The investment rating for Meituan-W (03690.HK) is "Outperform the Market" [6][25]. Core Views - The report indicates that increased subsidies have negatively impacted operational performance, with a significant decline in adjusted profit by 89% year-on-year for Q2 2025. Revenue reached 91.84 billion yuan, up 11.7% year-on-year, but operating profit fell to 230 million yuan, down 98% [1][8]. - The core local commerce segment remains the primary source of profit, generating 65.35 billion yuan in revenue, a 7.7% increase year-on-year. However, operating profit in this segment dropped by 75.6% [2][11]. - New business losses have narrowed sequentially, with revenue of 26.49 billion yuan, up 22.8% year-on-year, and an operating loss of 1.88 billion yuan, showing improvement from previous quarters [3][12]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, adjusted profit decreased by 89% to 1.49 billion yuan, with an adjusted net profit margin of 1.6%, down 14.9 percentage points year-on-year [1][8]. - The core local commerce segment's revenue was 65.35 billion yuan, with a significant decline in operating profit margin to 5.7%, down 19.4 percentage points year-on-year [2][11]. - New business revenue reached 26.49 billion yuan, with a narrowed operating loss of 1.88 billion yuan, improving from previous quarters [3][12]. Revenue Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are as follows: 370.34 billion yuan in 2025, 423.48 billion yuan in 2026, and 485.09 billion yuan in 2027, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 9.7%, 14.3%, and 14.5% [5][22]. - Adjusted net profit forecasts for the same period are -7.71 billion yuan in 2025, 31.76 billion yuan in 2026, and 46.57 billion yuan in 2027 [5][22]. Market Dynamics - The report highlights that the competitive landscape is intensifying, leading to increased strategic investments by the company to maintain market leadership and brand recognition [3][20]. - The company plans to focus on core areas and expand its supermarket business while exiting underperforming regions [3][12].

2025Q2 盈利能力承压走低。2025Q2，毛利率同比-8.1pct，系骑手补贴增 加及海外业务扩张所致；销售/研发/管理费率各+6.5/+0.3/-0.4pct， 竞争加剧推广投放增加；经调整净利润率 1.6%，同比-14.9pct。 预计第三季度核心本地商业会出现较大规模亏损。考虑到当下竞争加剧现 状，公司持续加大战略性投入，公司核心本地商业业务在第三季度仍将 出现较大规模亏损。一方面，公司会增加激励以确保价格竞争力与行业 领先的配送服务，其次会加大营销投入以强化品牌认知。 证券研究报告 | 2025年09月15日 美团-W（03690.HK） 优于大市 补贴加大拖累经营表现，持续跟踪竞争格局变化 2025Q2经调整溢利同降89%。2025Q2，公司实现收入918.4亿元，同比+11.7%； 经营溢利 2.3 亿元，同比-98.0%，经营利润率为 0.2%，同比-13.4pct；经调 整溢利为 14.9 亿元，同比-89.0%，经调整净利率为 1.6%，同比-14.9pct。 到店业务系核心本地商业的主要盈利来源。2025Q2，核心本地商业收入 653.5 亿元/+7.7%，其中配送服务/佣金/在线营销 ...

报告中称，2025年2月以来，三大平台布局升级，以外卖切入即时零售赛道。外卖业务作为高频刚需流 量入口，能够有效拉动本地生活及电商业务，助力平台占领未来零售业态竞争制高点。阿里巴巴"一个 淘宝"战略升级，组织架构协同调整，会员权益全面打通。闪购上线后，用户拉新与粘性提升效果显 著，品类供给依托电商商家优势，在服饰、电子产品及美妆个护领域形成差异化竞争，同时骑手运力快 速补给。 智通财经APP获悉，中信证券发布研报称，予阿里巴巴-W(09988)"买入"评级，考虑阿里资金优势突 出，认为中期预计形成双寡头竞争格局。依靠双模式发展全品类业务，该行预计FY2026- FY2028有望 贡献1万亿增量GMV。公司强调提升规模后优化效率，UE改善趋势明确下，该行预计闪购业务稳态盈 利贡献可达183亿元，乐观估值情境下，基于远期估值折现，2026年潜在市值提升空间近2,000亿元。 ...

报告中称，2025年2月以来，三大平台布局升级，以外卖切入即时零售赛道。外卖业务作为高频刚需流 量入口，能够有效拉动本地生活及电商业务，助力平台占领未来零售业态竞争制高点。阿里巴巴"一个 淘宝"战略升级，组织架构协同调整，会员权益全面打通。闪购上线后，用户拉新与粘性提升效果显 著，品类供给依托电商商家优势，在服饰、电子产品及美妆个护领域形成差异化竞争，同时骑手运力快 速补给。 中信证券发布研报称，予阿里巴巴-W(09988)"买入"评级，考虑阿里资金优势突出，认为中期预计形成 双寡头竞争格局。依靠双模式发展全品类业务，该行预计FY2026-FY2028有望贡献1万亿增量GMV。公 司强调提升规模后优化效率，UE改善趋势明确下，该行预计闪购业务稳态盈利贡献可达183亿元，乐观 估值情境下，基于远期估值折现，2026年潜在市值提升空间近2,000亿元。 ...

Group 1: State-Owned Enterprises Performance - In the first seven months of the year, state-owned enterprises reported total profits of 24,786.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.3% [2] - The total operating revenue for state-owned enterprises was 473,110.9 billion yuan, remaining flat compared to the same period last year [2] Group 2: Support for Artificial Intelligence Development - The National Development and Reform Commission announced multiple measures to support the development of artificial intelligence, including the issuance of computing power vouchers to reduce R&D costs for innovation entities [3] - The initiative aims to integrate hard investments and soft construction to promote AI development [3] Group 3: Brain-Computer Interface Development - Various provinces are drafting implementation plans to promote the development of brain-computer interfaces, with Zhejiang province focusing on creating an industrial ecosystem centered around this technology [4] - The plans include building a key enterprise database and supporting specialized development in the brain-computer interface sector [4] Group 4: Financial Performance of Companies - Huawei reported a revenue of 427 billion yuan for the first half of the year, marking a year-on-year increase of 3.94%, while net profit fell by 32% to 37.1 billion yuan [6] - Dell's second-quarter revenue reached 29.8 billion USD, a 19% year-on-year increase, with AI solutions shipments valued at 10 billion USD in the first half of the fiscal year [13] Group 5: Market Developments - The Apple Store officially launched its flagship store on Douyin, allowing users to purchase Apple products and accessories directly [7] - Pinduoduo is preparing to produce its own short dramas and is actively recruiting talent for this initiative [8] Group 6: Regulatory Changes - Starting August 29, the U.S. Customs began imposing tariffs on small packages valued at 800 USD and below, affecting over 4 million packages daily and impacting global postal networks and cross-border e-commerce [9] - Former President Trump threatened to impose significant tariffs on countries that implement digital taxes, following discussions with Meta Platforms CEO Mark Zuckerberg regarding this issue [10] Group 7: Investment and Financing - Commonwealth Fusion Systems secured 863 million USD in funding, led by Nvidia and Google, bringing its total financing to approximately 3 billion USD since its inception [11] - Several companies, including Hefei Tianyao and Lingmou Intelligent, announced successful funding rounds, indicating a growing interest in semiconductor materials and AI technologies [14]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of HKD 142.40 [6][7]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of RMB 86.6 billion for Q1 2025, representing a year-over-year increase of 18%, which exceeded consensus expectations by 1% [2][3]. - Operating profit for Q1 2025 was RMB 10.6 billion, surpassing expectations by 23%, while adjusted net profit reached RMB 10.9 billion, exceeding expectations by 11% [2][3]. - The management indicated that while short-term subsidy competition in the domestic food delivery market may impact profits, the long-term profitability is expected to return to reasonable levels due to the company's strong operational capabilities and market position [3][4]. Revenue and Profitability Summary - Q1 2025 revenue breakdown includes core local business revenue of RMB 64.3 billion (yoy +18%) and new business revenue of RMB 22.2 billion (yoy +19%) [2]. - The company has seen a 25% year-over-year increase in active merchants for its dine-in services, and the flash purchase segment has expanded its product categories significantly [2][3]. - The company anticipates revenue for 2025 to be RMB 385.9 billion, with adjusted net profit projected at RMB 40.5 billion, reflecting a cautious adjustment due to expected subsidy competition [4][5]. Valuation and Forecast - The valuation for the company's various segments includes an 8x PE for the food delivery business, 24x PE for the dine-in business, and 40x PE for the flash purchase business, leading to a target price of HKD 142.40 [4][11][12]. - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of RMB 23.5 billion from the food delivery segment in 2025, with a significant reduction in the previous forecast due to competitive pressures [11][12]. - The adjusted net profit forecast for 2025 is RMB 40.5 billion, with a projected EPS of RMB 6.63 [5][22].