Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Increase" rating for the industry [6] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates signs of recovery in the retail sector, particularly in high-end consumption and new retail, supported by recent quarterly performance disclosures from consumer companies [1] - The recovery is attributed to both low base effects from the previous year and the resilience of specific market segments, suggesting a strengthening foundation for domestic consumption [1] Summary by Sections Brand Performance - Richemont Group reported a 14% revenue increase in Q3 2025, with a 7% growth in mainland China, driven primarily by jewelry sales [2] - Burberry's same-store sales turned positive for the first time since 2024, with a 3% increase in China, benefiting from a low base effect [2] Property Performance - Swire Properties reported retail sales growth of 41.9% in Shanghai and 7.8% in Beijing for the first three quarters of 2025, indicating improving retail performance [3] - China Resources Land's total contract sales in October 2025 were approximately 15.2 billion yuan, a decrease of 51%, but recurring income showed a 3% increase [3] New Retail Developments - Walmart's Q3 2026 revenue reached $179.5 billion, a 5.8% year-on-year increase, with a 21.8% growth in China and a 32% increase in e-commerce sales [4] - Miniso reported a 28% revenue growth in Q3 2025, with a net profit increase of 12% and a total of 8,138 stores globally [5] Industry Trends - The retail index showed a decline of 7.24% recently, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 3.34 percentage points [14] - The report highlights the importance of new consumption trends and the potential for growth in sectors like duty-free shopping and cross-border e-commerce [10] Company Dynamics - Yum China announced a new strategic plan aiming for significant growth in store numbers and profitability over the next three years [21] - Huitongda Network plans to acquire a 57% stake in Cognition Boundary, enhancing its market position [21] Industry Developments - Good Sale has introduced coffee sales in select stores, maintaining a low-price strategy [23] - JD's discount supermarket is set to open a new location, expanding its market coverage [23] - Hema's new discount community supermarket model is entering the Guangdong market, indicating strategic expansion [24]

Group 1: Richemont Group's Jewelry Business Performance - Richemont Group reported a strong performance in its jewelry segment, with sales increasing by 11% to €39.14 billion, accounting for over 70% of the group's revenue [3] - The overall sales for the first quarter of the 2026 fiscal year reached €5.412 billion, reflecting a 6% year-on-year growth at constant exchange rates [3] - The jewelry business has achieved double-digit growth for three consecutive quarters, exceeding analyst expectations, while the Japanese market saw a decline of 15% due to a high comparison base from the previous year [3] Group 2: Burberry's Transformation Efforts - Burberry's latest quarterly revenue was £433 million, down 6% year-on-year, but the decline was less severe than the previous quarter's 15% [6] - The brand experienced a 1% growth in Europe, the Middle East, and Africa, and a 4% rebound in the Americas, while the Asia-Pacific market remained under pressure with a decline of approximately 5% [6] - Burberry's CEO Joshua Schulman has initiated a brand transformation plan called "Burberry Forward," focusing on streamlining SKUs and enhancing store experiences, with an expected cost saving of £80 million for the year [6] Group 3: LVMH's Investment in Molli - LVMH's venture capital fund, LVMH Luxury Ventures, has acquired a minority stake in the high-end knitwear brand Molli, marking the brand's first financing since its takeover in 2014 [10] - Molli, established in 1886, reported sales exceeding €8 million last year and expects to surpass €10 million this year, with 35% of sales coming from cross-border e-commerce [10] - The investment aims to support Molli's global expansion and enhance its e-commerce capabilities, aligning with LVMH's focus on luxury knitwear brands [10] Group 4: Vacheron Constantin's 270th Anniversary Exhibition - Vacheron Constantin launched a limited-time exhibition titled "The Journey of Excellence" in Shanghai to celebrate its 270th anniversary, showcasing over 60 museum-quality timepieces and horological tools [13] - The exhibition features themes such as "Looking at the World," highlighting pieces inspired by Chinese aesthetics, and "Hand in Hand with the Louvre," showcasing timepieces honoring ancient civilizations [13] - A special interactive installation presents the "Les Cabinotiers" masterpiece, which is the world's most complex timepiece, integrating 2,877 components and 63 complications, including a unique Chinese perpetual calendar function [13] Group 5: Chanel's New Publication - Chanel launched a new publication titled "Art and Culture," focusing on the brand's artistic collaborations and cultural projects over the past five years [16] - The magazine, approximately 250 pages long, features diverse perspectives from artists and includes articles on notable figures, as well as a collection of works from the CHANEL Next Prize winners [16] - This initiative reinforces Chanel's role as an art sponsor and cultural narrator, emphasizing its long-term commitment to global cultural discourse [16]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the luxury goods industry, but it highlights significant trends and performance metrics that could inform investment decisions. Core Insights - There is a notable divergence in purchasing intent for luxury goods, with high-net-worth individuals (HNWIs) maintaining robust consumption while the middle class shows a significant decline in luxury purchasing intent [2][9]. - High-end brands exhibit significant performance differentiation, with MIU MIU showing strong growth momentum, while GUCCI continues to face challenges [3][10]. - The jewelry sector demonstrates steady growth, particularly during holiday periods, with brands like Van Cleef & Arpels leading in performance [4][11]. - Sales of high-end skincare products are weakening, while consumers are increasingly focused on value-for-money in cosmetics [4][12]. - The gold jewelry sector is performing well, with Laopu Gold emerging as a key growth driver [4][13]. Summary by Sections Purchasing Intent and Consumer Behavior - In 2024, the middle class (annual household income of 1.5 million to 5 million RMB) showed a double-digit year-on-year decline in luxury purchasing intent, while HNWIs, particularly black card and platinum card holders, maintained mid-single-digit growth in consumption [2][9]. Brand Performance - High-end brands like Hermès, LV, Dior, CHANEL, and Prada experienced a "high open low walk" sales growth pattern in early 2025, with MIU MIU standing out for its strong performance, while GUCCI has been under pressure with continuous negative growth [3][10]. Jewelry Sector - Jewelry brands, including Bulgari, Tiffany, and Cartier, maintained moderate growth, with Van Cleef & Arpels showing the strongest performance among jewelry brands [4][11]. Skincare and Cosmetics - Sales growth for high-end skincare products has slowed, with brands like Lancôme and La Mer particularly affected. Consumers are prioritizing cost-effective makeup options, prompting high-end brands to enhance customer loyalty through personalized services [4][12]. Gold Jewelry Sector - Laopu Gold has significantly outperformed competitors in the gold jewelry sector, with positive sales growth in early 2025. The brand's expansion strategy is supported by increased store area and prime location allocation in shopping malls [4][13].