证券研究报告 公司研究 [Table_ReportType] 点评报告 [Table_StockAndRank] 名创优品(9896.HK) 投资评级 上次评级 蔡昕妤 商贸零售分析师 执业编号：S1500523060001 联系电话：13921189535 邮 箱：caixinyu@cindasc.com [Table_Title] 名创优品(9896.HK)：25Q2 业绩超预期，集 团同店回正 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 8 月 22 日 [Table_S 事件：公司发布 ummary] 25H1 业绩，实现收入 93.93 亿元，同增 21.1%，经调整经 营利润 15.87 亿元，同增 1.7%，经调整净利润 12.79 亿元，同增 3%，调整 后净利率 13.6%，同比-2.4pct。25Q2 公司实现收入 49.66 亿元，同增 23.1%， 超此前 18-21%的增幅指引，经调整经营利润 8.52 亿元，同增 8.5%，经调 整经营利润率 17.2%，均超公司指引；经调净利润 6.92 亿元，同增 10.6%， 经调整净利率 13.9%，同比-1.6pct。 点评： 2 ...

8 月 21 日公司披露 25H1 报告，H1 营收 93.9 亿元（+21%），调整 后归母净利润为 12.79 亿元（同比+3%），其中 2Q 营收 49.7 亿元， 同比+23.1%，调整后归母净利润为 6.9 亿元（同比+10.6%），调整 后归母净利率 13.9%（同/环比-1.6/+0.6pct），业绩超市场预期。 2Q25 国内名创/海外名创/TOPTOY 营收 26.2/19.4/4 亿元（同比 （+13.6%/+28.6%/+87%）。 国内名创：Q2 同店低个位数正增拐点初现，开店恢复环比正增、 自有 IP 初步打磨成功。Q1/Q2 国内名创同店中个位数下降/低个 位数上升，得益于积极开设 IP 大店、优化组织/质价比策略精细 化运营改善同店；截至 Q2 门店数量达到 4305 家（同/环比+190/+30 家），其中一/二/三线门店较 Q1+3/+1/+26 家。报告期内公司签约 多位艺术家，初步孵化出右右酱、糯米等自有 IP，后续将坚持 IP 联名+自有 IP 并行战略 海外名创：北美同店转暖、欧洲表现靓丽。H1GMV73.3 亿元，同比 +14.5%，截至 2Q25 海外总门店数 3 ...

智通财经APP讯，名创优品(09896)发布截至2025年6 月30日止六个月业绩，收入93.93亿元(人民币，下 同)，同比增长21.1%;公司权益股东应占利润9.06亿元，同比下降22.6%;每股普通股基本盈利0.74元。 毛利率达到44.3%，为过往上半年的历史高点，增长0.6个百分点。毛利率的同比增长主要是由于名创优 品品牌海外市场贡献的收入增加，及TOP TOY的毛利率增长所致。 名创优品品牌的收入增加18.1%至86.49亿元，包括：中国内地名创优品品牌的收入增加11.4%;海外市场 名创优品品牌的收入增加29.4%。海外收入占名创优品品牌收入的40.9%，去年同期则为37.3%。 TOP TOY品牌的收入增加73.0%至7.421亿元，主要得益于其平均门店数量的快速增长。 ...

Group 1 - The article highlights various summer promotions and discounts available for consumers, encouraging them to take advantage of these offers [1][2][15] - Specific promotions include a maximum discount of 50 yuan for new users and additional savings through combined offers [2] - The article emphasizes the importance of enjoying summer activities, such as travel and entertainment, with various discounts from airlines and service providers [11][13][14] Group 2 - Companies like Luckin Coffee and Meituan are promoting their summer deals, focusing on refreshing beverages and diverse entertainment options [7][15] - The article suggests that consumers can save significantly on travel and leisure activities during the summer season, making it an ideal time for shopping and enjoyment [11][15] - The overall message encourages consumers to seize the opportunity for savings and enhance their summer experiences through these promotions [1][2][11]

Core Viewpoint - The retail sector in commercial real estate is experiencing a transformation driven by consumer promotion policies and the expansion of the duty-free economy across major cities in China, leading to increased consumer spending and inbound tourism [3][5][6]. Group 1: Retail Sector Performance - Major retail operators such as CR Land, Longfor Group, and Link REIT are showing varied performance, with some projects achieving significant growth while others struggle with older assets requiring continuous investment [3][9]. - The retail property portfolio of Link REIT in mainland China reported a total revenue and net property income growth of 29.7% and 28.9% respectively, driven by strong performance from specific projects in Shanghai and Shenzhen [9][12]. Group 2: Consumer Promotion Policies - Cities like Shenzhen, Chongqing, and Chengdu have introduced consumer promotion policies aimed at boosting local economies, with initiatives such as the establishment of new retail stores and events to attract consumers [5][6]. - The focus on green consumption and the establishment of new retail formats, such as duty-free shops in urban areas, are part of a broader strategy to enhance consumer engagement and stimulate economic activity [5][8]. Group 3: Experience and Content Enhancement - Existing retail spaces are undergoing significant upgrades to enhance consumer experience, with a shift towards immersive and engaging environments to attract foot traffic [14][17]. - New entrants in the outlet market are leveraging unique themes and experiences to differentiate themselves, such as health and wellness concepts in shopping centers [13][19]. Group 4: Cross-Border E-commerce Expansion - Cross-border e-commerce platforms like TikTok Shop are expanding into new European markets, indicating a strategic move to capture a broader customer base [30][31]. - Domestic platforms are also enhancing their international competitiveness, with initiatives like JD's collaboration with Xiaohongshu to improve conversion rates and customer engagement [34]. Group 5: REITs and Investment Trends - The approval of new consumption infrastructure REITs, such as the China Green Development REIT, reflects a growing trend towards light-asset operations and the optimization of commercial assets [35][36]. - Existing REITs are showing stable operations, with a reported cash distribution rate of 4.19% for the recently restructured Huaxia First Creation Outlet REIT [36][37].

Core Insights - The article highlights the significant growth of instant retail during the 618 shopping festival, driven by consumer demand for lower price points and convenience [2][10]. Group 1: Instant Retail Growth - Instant retail has emerged as a new consumption trend during the 618 festival, with major players like Meituan and Alibaba participating actively [2][3]. - Meituan's instant retail brand, Meituan Flash Purchase, reported over 1 billion users placing orders during the 618 period, with transaction volumes doubling year-on-year in over 60 product categories [3][6]. - High-value items such as electronics and appliances saw transaction volumes increase by 200%, with nearly 850 retail brands experiencing a doubling in sales [3][6]. Group 2: Consumer Behavior and Preferences - Instant retail is attracting a younger demographic, with 80% of customers being new users during the 618 period, indicating a shift in consumer behavior towards spontaneous and personalized shopping experiences [7][10]. - The average delivery time for high-value products during the 618 period was reported to be 28 minutes, with 70% of orders delivered within 30 minutes, showcasing the efficiency of instant retail [11][12]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - The competition in traditional e-commerce is intense, but instant retail focuses on educating consumers rather than competing directly, aiming to capture new market segments [10]. - Instant retail is seen as a complementary channel to traditional e-commerce, providing a better service experience and meeting the demand for immediate consumption [10][11]. Group 4: Pricing and Promotions - The combination of government subsidies and platform discounts has led to lower prices for 3C products, making them more attractive to consumers compared to previous years [6][7]. - Instant retail brands are maintaining consistent pricing across different sales channels, ensuring competitiveness during promotional periods [6][10].

Financial Overview - Total revenue for Q1 FY25 was 44.3 billion RMB, showing a year-over-year increase of 18.4% [1] - Gross profit was 19.6 billion RMB with a gross margin of 44.3% [1] - Core operating profit was 7.1 billion RMB, representing a decline of 13.41% year-over-year [1] - Adjusted net profit was 5.9 billion RMB, down 10.11% year-over-year [1] Market Strategy - The company is focusing on improving same-store sales performance, which has shown significant improvement compared to Q3 and Q4 of the previous year [2] - The average customer transaction value remained stable, while foot traffic in physical stores has seen a slight decline [2] - The company is optimistic about achieving positive growth in same-store sales by mid-2025 [2] Expansion Plans - The company opened 5 new large stores in Q1 and has plans for 50 more [5] - Internationally, the company is focusing on expanding in 24 states in the U.S., covering 76% of the population [5] - The company aims to enhance its product differentiation with over 40% of its products being proprietary under the TOP TOY brand [5] Financial Management - The company plans to distribute a dividend of 740 million RMB for the fiscal year 2024 [4] - A total of 260 million RMB has been allocated for share buybacks in 2025, representing 0.7% of total shares [4] - The long-term target for operating profit margin is set at 20%, with a short-term focus on improving the efficiency of direct stores [4]

Financial Performance - The company reported Q1 2025 revenue of 4.43 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 18.9%, exceeding the market estimate of 4.41 billion RMB [1][3] - Net profit for the quarter was 416.5 million RMB, down 28.8% from 586 million RMB in the same period last year [1][3] - Adjusted net profit was 587.2 million RMB, below the expected 661.3 million RMB [1][3] - Adjusted EBITDA margin was 23.4%, down from 25.9% in Q1 2024 [1] Revenue Breakdown - Revenue from the MINISO brand reached 4.09 billion RMB, a 16.5% increase, with mainland China contributing 2.49 billion RMB (up 9.1%) and overseas markets contributing 1.59 billion RMB (up 30.3%) [4][5] - TOP TOY brand revenue was 340 million RMB, a significant increase of 58.9%, driven by rapid growth in average store count [4][5] Store Expansion - As of March 31, 2025, the total number of stores for the group was 7,768, with a net increase of 978 stores year-on-year [5][6] - The number of MINISO stores reached 7,488, with 4,275 located in mainland China and 3,213 overseas, marking a net increase of 241 and 617 stores respectively [6][7] Management Commentary - The CEO expressed confidence in achieving sustainable high-quality growth, attributing revenue growth to a strong recovery in same-store sales and strategic store network development [8] - The company plans to enhance collaboration with overseas partners, upgrade store formats, and improve operational efficiency to unlock expansion potential [8]

Core Insights - MUJI, known for its minimalist lifestyle products, initially thrived in China by aligning with the emerging middle class's aesthetic preferences, transitioning from "having" to "experiencing" [1][5] - However, by the 2020s, the unique appeal of MUJI's restrained aesthetics diminished as local competitors like MINISO and NetEase Yanxuan emerged, offering similar products at lower prices [2][8] - The brand is now facing significant challenges, including slowing sales growth, declining store popularity, and a shift in consumer perception, which has led to a decrease in its market position [4][10] Company History and Market Position - MUJI entered the Chinese market in July 2005, opening its first store in Shanghai and gradually expanding its presence, reaching 256 stores by the end of 2019 [5][15] - The brand's initial success was fueled by the rise of the middle class in China, who valued quality and aesthetic living, making MUJI a symbol of taste and quality [7][8] - Despite rapid expansion, the changing retail environment, including the rise of e-commerce and increased competition, posed risks that were not adequately addressed [8][10] Competitive Landscape - MUJI now competes with numerous local and international brands that offer similar products at more competitive prices, such as MINISO, which has over 4,386 stores in China and reported a revenue of 17 billion RMB in the 2024 fiscal year [8][9] - The emergence of e-commerce platforms like NetEase Yanxuan, which offers products at significantly lower prices, has further eroded MUJI's market share and brand perception [9][10] - Consumer sentiment has shifted, with many viewing MUJI as "worth visiting but not worth buying," leading to a decline in its perceived value [10][11] Financial Performance - MUJI's revenue in China for the 2024 fiscal year was approximately 1,182 billion yen (about 56.3 billion RMB), accounting for only 18% of its global revenue, indicating a significant gap compared to local competitors [8][15] - The brand has experienced a decline in same-store sales since 2016, with negative growth starting in 2018, highlighting ongoing operational challenges [13][14] Strategic Challenges and Opportunities - MUJI's pricing strategy has been criticized, with consumers perceiving its products as overpriced compared to local alternatives, leading to a loss of its competitive edge [10][11] - The brand has attempted to address this by implementing multiple price reductions since 2014, but these efforts have not fully restored consumer confidence [11][12] - The company is now focusing on localizing its product offerings and optimizing its supply chain to improve cost efficiency and better meet consumer needs [19][20] Future Strategies - MUJI plans to enhance its brand communication and reposition itself to emphasize quality and value, aiming to regain consumer trust [17][18] - The company is also exploring local product development to cater to Chinese consumer preferences, which includes introducing products that resonate with local tastes and lifestyles [19][20] - Additionally, MUJI is set to innovate its retail channels by launching smaller, more affordable store formats like "MUJI 500" to attract a broader customer base [23][24]

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