投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2025 年 12 月 5 日） 品种观点参考 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 品种：豆粕（M） 期货研究报告 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月(以前一日夜盘收盘价为基准) 品种 短期 中期 日内 观点参考 核心逻辑概要 <点击目录链接，直达品种 策略解析> 豆粕 2605 震荡 震荡 震荡 偏弱 震荡偏弱 进口大豆成本，进口到港节 奏，油厂开工节奏，库存压力 豆油 2601 震荡 震荡 震荡 偏弱 震荡偏弱 美豆成本支撑，美国生物燃 料政策，美豆油库存，国内 大豆成本支撑，供应节奏， 油厂库存 棕榈 2601 震荡 偏强 震荡 震荡 偏弱 震荡偏弱 马棕 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Report's Core View - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views of soybean meal 2601, soybean oil 2601, and palm oil 2601 are all "oscillating weakly" [6]. - The market sentiment of the soybean meal, soybean oil, and palm oil futures is unstable, and the prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term [5][6][7]. 3. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal (M) - **View**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating weakly; Reference view: oscillating weakly [5][6]. - **Core Logic**: Uncertainties in Sino - US trade relations, including potential tariff increases and negotiation uncertainties, combined with the contradiction between high near - month inventory and expected far - month supply gaps in the domestic market, have weakened the support for the futures price of the soybean meal 2601 contract. The market sentiment is volatile, leading to a short - term weakly oscillating price [5]. - **Key Factors**: Sino - US relations, import arrival rhythm, oil mill operation rhythm, and inventory pressure [6]. Palm Oil (P) - **View**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating weakly; Reference view: oscillating weakly [6][7]. - **Core Logic**: The continuous downward pressure on international oil prices has an overflow effect on the oil market. Meanwhile, the weakening of the palm oil industry chain exerts significant pressure on the market. The possible increase in Indonesia's palm oil export tax may affect market sentiment. Until the market sentiment recovers, the palm oil futures price will oscillate weakly [7]. - **Key Factors**: Biodiesel properties, Malaysian palm production and exports, Indonesian exports, main producing countries' tariff policies, domestic arrival and inventory, and substitution demand [6]. Soybean Oil (not separately detailed in the text but included in the table) - **View**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating weakly; Reference view: oscillating weakly [6]. - **Key Factors**: Sino - US relations, US biofuel policy, US soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and oil mill inventory [6].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The prices of soybean meal and palm oil futures are expected to be oscillating strongly in the short - term and oscillating in the medium - term [5][7]. - For soybean meal, due to the escalation of Sino - US trade frictions, the domestic soybean futures price is stronger than the foreign market. The expected tightening of long - term soybean supply supports the price of the 2601 contract [5]. - For palm oil, after the release of market risks, the price may stop falling and rebound despite the short - term fluctuations caused by factors such as the decline in international oil prices and the weakening of the industrial chain [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean Meal (M) - **Viewpoints**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating strongly; Reference view: oscillating strongly [5][6]. - **Core Logic**: Affected by Sino - US trade frictions, the domestic soybean futures price is stronger than the foreign market. There is a procurement gap for the 12 - 1 January shipment, and the expected tightening of long - term soybean supply supports the 2601 contract [5]. - **Key Factors**: Sino - US relations, import arrival rhythm, oil mill operation rhythm, and inventory pressure [6]. Palm Oil (P) - **Viewpoints**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating strongly; Reference view: oscillating strongly [7][6]. - **Core Logic**: With the decline in international oil prices and the weakening of the industrial chain, the decline of palm oil futures prices has widened. After the release of market risks, the price may stop falling and rebound [7]. - **Key Factors**: Biodiesel attributes, Malaysian palm oil production and exports, Indonesian exports, tariff policies of major producing countries, domestic arrival and inventory, and substitution demand [6]. Soybean Oil (Not in detailed description but in overview) - **Viewpoints**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating strongly; Reference view: oscillating strongly [6]. - **Key Factors**: Sino - US relations, US biofuel policy, US soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and oil mill inventory [6].