Core Viewpoint - The global foreign exchange market is at a critical juncture, influenced by divergent monetary policies of major central banks, ongoing geopolitical tensions, and mixed macroeconomic data, challenging the dominance of the US dollar while the euro and yen struggle within their respective economic cycles [1]. Group 1: US Dollar Index (DXY) - The DXY is currently oscillating around 97.551, reflecting the market's reliance on the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance while harboring deep concerns about the US economic growth outlook [2]. - The market anticipates the Fed will maintain a tight monetary policy to combat persistent inflation, with rate hike expectations cooling but nearly no anticipation for rate cuts this year, providing solid support for the dollar [2][3]. - Recent economic data presents a mixed picture, with strong labor market indicators supporting the Fed's tightening policy, while weak manufacturing and housing data indicate cooling in interest-sensitive sectors, creating a dilemma for the dollar's movement [3]. Group 2: Euro/USD (EUR/USD) - The EUR/USD struggles around 1.17410, reflecting the European Central Bank's (ECB) difficult balancing act between combating inflation and concerns over economic recession [4]. - The ECB's decision to maintain the deposit rate at 2.00% is not surprising, but President Lagarde's "data-dependent" approach suggests a strategy of "buying time" amid complex challenges [5]. - The risk of fragmentation within the Eurozone, indicated by the widening yield spread between German and Italian bonds, poses a significant threat to the euro's upward potential unless a strong economic recovery occurs [6]. Group 3: Dollar/Yen (USD/JPY) - The USD/JPY trades around 147.058, amid speculation regarding the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) potential exit from its long-standing negative interest rate and yield curve control policies [7]. - The BoJ faces increasing pressure to normalize its policy as domestic inflation stabilizes above 2%, with market expectations for action in the coming quarters, which could reshape global capital flows [7]. - The timing of the BoJ's policy shift remains uncertain, as premature tightening could jeopardize economic recovery and impact Japan's substantial government debt market [8]. Group 4: Other Currencies and Strategic Outlook - The forex market is driven by three main themes: divergence in monetary policies among the Fed, ECB, and BoJ; the momentum of global economic growth; and evolving geopolitical and trade relationships [10]. - The GBP/USD reflects the UK's "stagflation" dilemma, while the AUD/USD's outlook is closely tied to China's economic recovery, and the USD/CAD is significantly influenced by oil price fluctuations [11]. - A core-satellite strategy is recommended, focusing on the dollar while allocating positions in euros and yen based on specific drivers, emphasizing the importance of data analysis and central bank communications [12].

Group 1: Gold (XAU/USD) - The overall trend for gold showed a rise followed by a pullback, with a daily range of approximately 591 points and a closing bearish candle with upper and lower shadows [1] - Federal Reserve officials emphasized a cautious policy stance, coupled with uncertainties surrounding Trump's trade policies, leading to increased volatility in gold prices [1] - The current strategy suggests a focus on buying on dips, with a bullish outlook continuing as the price broke through the consolidation range [1] Group 2: Euro/USD (EUR/USD) - The euro was impacted by lower-than-expected CPI in the Eurozone and rising expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut, resulting in a daily range of about 90 points and a bearish closing [7] - The European Central Bank's rate cut expectations have increased, while strong U.S. job vacancy data has put pressure on the euro [7] - The current price is consolidating around 1.1364, with future movements dependent on policy developments [7] Group 3: GBP/USD - The British pound experienced fluctuations influenced by the Bank of England Governor's remarks and U.S. data, with a daily range of approximately 110 points and a bullish closing [12] - The current price is around 1.356, and attention is required on UK government policies and Federal Reserve officials' statements [12] - The strategy suggests holding long positions around 1.350, with a target profit of 30-50 points [12] Group 4: GBP/JPY - The GBP/JPY pair saw a decline during the Asian session followed by a rebound in the U.S. session, with a daily range of about 206 points and a strong bullish closing [17] - The strategy focuses on buying on dips, particularly near Fibonacci support levels [17] - The current recommendation is to buy in batches at 194.1 and 193.8, with a total profit target of 40-60 points [19]

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The gold market experienced a pullback near the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, leading to a decline but remained above the support level of 3284, resulting in a trading range of approximately 486 points with a long upper shadow on the daily candle [1] - The market sentiment improved due to the U.S. Federal Court ruling on Trump's tariffs, reducing concerns over international trade, which in turn diminished the safe-haven demand for gold as the dollar rebounded [1] - Today's opening saw gold prices drop over $30, reaching a low of approximately 3245, with a technical outlook indicating a primary focus on short positions following a break below the head and shoulders neckline [1] Group 2: Key Levels and Trading Recommendations - Key resistance levels are identified at 3325 and 3285, while support levels are at 3245 and 3200 [3] - The strategy suggests shorting near 3285 with a profit target of 70-100 points and a stop-loss around 3295 [3] Group 3: Euro/USD Market Insights - Eurozone economic data showed weakness, with France's Q1 GDP confirming a slight growth of 0.1% and consumer confidence in April falling below expectations, while Germany saw an unexpected increase in unemployment [6] - European Central Bank officials hinted at potential further rate cuts after the June monetary policy meeting, reinforcing expectations for monetary easing [6] - The EUR/USD pair fluctuated down to around 1.128, with a daily range of approximately 61 points and a candle showing small upper and lower shadows [6] Group 4: Key Levels and Trading Recommendations for Euro/USD - Support levels are at 1.113 and 1.118, while resistance levels are at 1.131 and 1.136 [8] - The recommendation is to enter short positions around 1.126 or 1.125 with a profit target of 30-50 points and a stop-loss at approximately 1.130 [8] Group 5: GBP/USD Market Overview - Reports indicate that long-term UK government bond yields may slightly decline in the coming months due to market expectations that the Bank of England will halt active quantitative tightening from October [11] - The GBP/USD pair traded down to around 1.345, with a daily range of approximately 71 points and a candle showing small upper and lower shadows [11] Group 6: Key Levels and Trading Recommendations for GBP/USD - Key support levels are at 1.332 and 1.336, while resistance levels are at 1.350 and 1.355 [13] - The strategy suggests shorting near 1.346 or 1.345 with a profit target of 30-50 points and a stop-loss around 1.352 [13] Group 7: GBP/JPY Market Dynamics - The GBP/JPY market showed a corrective trend with a slight increase during the U.S. session, reaching resistance at approximately 196.3, before retreating to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level [16] - The market remains in a bullish pattern despite the recent pullback [16] Group 8: Key Levels and Trading Recommendations for GBP/JPY - Resistance levels are at 197 and 196.4, while support levels are at 195 and 194.4 [18] - The recommendation is to buy on dips around 195.7 and 195.4 with a profit target of 40-60 points and a stop-loss near 195 [18]