Fundamental Analysis - Optimism in trade negotiations has weakened the demand for safe-haven assets like gold, as the U.S. and Japan reached a trade agreement to reduce auto import tariffs to 15% and exempt certain goods from punitive tariffs. Additionally, positive progress in U.S.-EU trade talks is expected to lead to a deal with a 15% baseline tariff, lower than the previously threatened 30% [3] - Strong economic data has boosted the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields, with initial jobless claims falling to 217,000, the lowest in three months, and the composite PMI and services PMI both rising in July, indicating accelerated economic activity. This has led to a stronger dollar index (up 0.3%) and a 10-year Treasury yield of 4.408%, reducing gold's appeal as a non-yielding asset [3] - President Trump's rare visit to the Federal Reserve raised concerns about the independence of the Fed, which could provide medium to long-term support for gold prices. The market expects the Fed to maintain interest rates at 4.25%-4.50% during the upcoming meeting, with potential rate cuts anticipated in September [4] - Key economic data to watch includes the U.S. June durable goods orders, which is an important indicator of manufacturing activity and economic health, likely to impact gold prices [4] Technical Analysis - On the daily chart, gold has shown a weakening trend after forming three consecutive bullish candles, with a bearish engulfing pattern observed. The price has broken below the 5-day and 10-day moving averages, indicating a short-term bearish outlook [5] - Key support levels to monitor include 3339, the lower boundary of the current upward channel, and 3324, a trendline support formed by previous lows. Resistance is significantly higher at around 3450, making a rebound to this level unlikely in the short term [5] - The four-hour chart indicates a series of bearish candles, with a slight recovery after hitting 3351. Confirmation of the 3351 low is crucial; if the price rebounds above this level, resistance can be identified at 3393/3395 and 3402/3406. A drop below 3351 would lead to a focus on the daily support levels mentioned [6] - The one-hour chart suggests that gold may be in a corrective phase, with potential for a rebound from the recent low at 3351. The structure indicates that if the price breaks above key resistance levels, it could signal a shift in trend direction [7]

Fundamental Analysis - The trade agreement between the Trump administration and Japan has reduced tariffs on automobiles from 27.5% to 15%, with Japan committing to invest $550 billion in the U.S. This agreement serves as a template for tariff policies and has led to a rally in Asian stock markets, diminishing the demand for gold as a safe haven [3]. - Concerns regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve have emerged, as a Reuters survey indicates that most economists believe there will be no interest rate cut in July. President Trump has publicly criticized Fed Chairman Powell, raising fears about the Fed's autonomy. If the Fed is forced to cut rates aggressively, it could lead to soaring inflation, which would support gold prices. Currently, the market anticipates a 58% probability of a rate cut in September, resulting in a tug-of-war between bullish and bearish sentiments for gold [3]. - Key economic events to watch include the European Central Bank's interest rate decision at 20:15, a press conference by ECB President Lagarde at 20:45, and U.S. initial jobless claims data at 20:30 [3]. Technical Analysis - On the daily chart, gold experienced a significant drop after three consecutive days of gains, forming a bearish engulfing pattern. The recent low is near the 5-day moving average, and the price is currently below this average, indicating a potential weakening trend. Key support levels to monitor are around 3365/3360, with further support at trendline levels of 3334 and 3320 if the decline continues [4]. - On the four-hour chart, after a drop to 3381, gold showed a slight rebound. The price needs to stay above 3381 for a potential upward movement, with resistance levels at 3410, 3417, and 3426/3427, corresponding to Fibonacci retracement levels. If the price declines, support levels to watch are at 3374, 3359, and 3337 [6]. Summary of Key Levels - Support levels to monitor include 3381, 3374, 3365/3359, 3337/3334, and 3320. Resistance levels to watch are 3410, 3417, 3426/3427, and 3438/3439 [7].

Fundamental Analysis - US economic data shows June retail sales increased by 0.6% and core retail sales rose by 0.5%, indicating a recovery in consumer spending. Initial jobless claims fell to 221,000, the lowest in three months, supporting the Fed's decision to delay interest rate cuts, which puts short-term pressure on gold prices. However, potential risks from slowing wage growth provide long-term support for gold [3] - There is a divergence in the Federal Reserve's internal views. Hawkish member Cook believes restrictive policies should be maintained to curb inflation expectations, while dovish member Daly supports two rate cuts by the end of the year. Member Waller suggests a 25 basis point cut in July. This divergence has led to fluctuations in the interest rate futures market, with a 54% probability of a rate cut in September and a 30% chance in July [3] - The uncertainty surrounding tariff policies, particularly between Japan and the US, is causing import prices to rise and increasing inflation expectations, which enhances gold's safe-haven appeal. Although gold prices are under short-term pressure, escalating trade tensions may lead to a rebound in gold prices [3] - Key data to watch includes US June housing starts and building permits at 20:30, followed by July's one-year inflation expectations and the University of Michigan consumer confidence index at 22:00 [3] Technical Analysis - On the daily chart, gold prices have shown erratic movements this week, with a strong resistance level above and a support level below. The current moving averages indicate a wide-ranging consolidation pattern. A rising channel formed by connecting the high and low points since July suggests important guidance for intraday movements, with resistance at 3379/3380 and support at 3292 [4] - On the four-hour chart, gold prices reached a high of 3377 but failed to maintain the upward momentum. After breaking below the previous low of 3319, prices rebounded, recovering nearly half of the decline. The analysis indicates that the high of 3377 may represent a wave peak, with resistance levels at 3351/3352 and 3363. If the price breaks above 3377, it may indicate that the upward wave is not yet complete. Key support levels to monitor are 3282 and 3247, with a break below these levels suggesting a potential downward trend [6]

Core Viewpoint - The recent performance of the North Exchange indicates a potential bull market, with the North 50 Index showing a cumulative increase of 8.13% over the past seven trading days, approaching historical highs [1][4]. Valuation - The current PE (TTM) of the North 50 Index is 69 times, which is lower than the previous peak of 77 times on May 20, indicating a favorable valuation environment [1][4]. - The small-cap growth sector shows even more attractive valuation, with a potential upside of 16% compared to its highest position [3][4]. Chart Analysis - The North 50 Index has reached the 1450-point mark three times since last year, with each subsequent pullback being smaller than the last, suggesting a pattern of higher lows [4][7]. - The analysis of previous market cycles shows a Fibonacci-like pattern in the magnitude of price movements, indicating a potential for a significant upward trend if the current cycle continues [5][7]. Volume Analysis - Volume is a critical factor for breaking new highs, with the current market showing stronger initial momentum compared to previous cycles [9][11]. - The recent trading days have demonstrated a more vigorous start, suggesting that the current market phase may be more promising than past attempts to reach new highs [11]. Summary - Valuation indicates greater upward potential with less resistance [12] - Chart patterns suggest a possible end to the previous stagnation around the 1500-point mark [12] - Volume trends indicate a stronger foundation for future market movements [12]

Group 1: Market Overview - Gold prices experienced fluctuations on June 26, with a peak around 3350 before declining to a low of 3310, closing at approximately 3336, indicating a small bearish candle with upper and lower shadows [2] - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East has eased, reducing gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset, while uncertainties remain due to the Trump administration's sanctions on Iran and conflicts with Israel [3] - The market anticipates the Federal Reserve to initiate rate cuts in September, with a probability exceeding 90% for two cuts totaling 50 basis points within the year [3] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The first quarter GDP of the U.S. was revised down to a contraction of 0.5%, with consumer spending growth adjusted to 0.5%, and initial jobless claims reaching the highest level since November 2021, indicating potential weaknesses in the labor market [3] - The U.S. dollar has fallen to its lowest levels against the euro and pound since 2021, influenced by rate cut expectations and rumors regarding a new Federal Reserve chair nomination [3] - U.S. Treasury yields have decreased, with the 10-year yield at 4.25% and the 30-year yield at 4.811% [3] Group 3: Technical Analysis - The daily chart indicates a bearish short-term trend for gold, with key support levels at 3295 and 3288; a break below these levels could lead to further declines [6] - The moving averages show a bearish signal, with the 5-day and 10-day moving averages forming a death cross and diverging downwards [6] - On the four-hour chart, if gold remains below the resistance at 3350 and breaks below 3295, it is likely in the first phase of a Y-wave adjustment, with further support levels at 3286 and 3247 [8]

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The gold market experienced a pullback near the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, leading to a decline but remained above the support level of 3284, resulting in a trading range of approximately 486 points with a long upper shadow on the daily candle [1] - The market sentiment improved due to the U.S. Federal Court ruling on Trump's tariffs, reducing concerns over international trade, which in turn diminished the safe-haven demand for gold as the dollar rebounded [1] - Today's opening saw gold prices drop over $30, reaching a low of approximately 3245, with a technical outlook indicating a primary focus on short positions following a break below the head and shoulders neckline [1] Group 2: Key Levels and Trading Recommendations - Key resistance levels are identified at 3325 and 3285, while support levels are at 3245 and 3200 [3] - The strategy suggests shorting near 3285 with a profit target of 70-100 points and a stop-loss around 3295 [3] Group 3: Euro/USD Market Insights - Eurozone economic data showed weakness, with France's Q1 GDP confirming a slight growth of 0.1% and consumer confidence in April falling below expectations, while Germany saw an unexpected increase in unemployment [6] - European Central Bank officials hinted at potential further rate cuts after the June monetary policy meeting, reinforcing expectations for monetary easing [6] - The EUR/USD pair fluctuated down to around 1.128, with a daily range of approximately 61 points and a candle showing small upper and lower shadows [6] Group 4: Key Levels and Trading Recommendations for Euro/USD - Support levels are at 1.113 and 1.118, while resistance levels are at 1.131 and 1.136 [8] - The recommendation is to enter short positions around 1.126 or 1.125 with a profit target of 30-50 points and a stop-loss at approximately 1.130 [8] Group 5: GBP/USD Market Overview - Reports indicate that long-term UK government bond yields may slightly decline in the coming months due to market expectations that the Bank of England will halt active quantitative tightening from October [11] - The GBP/USD pair traded down to around 1.345, with a daily range of approximately 71 points and a candle showing small upper and lower shadows [11] Group 6: Key Levels and Trading Recommendations for GBP/USD - Key support levels are at 1.332 and 1.336, while resistance levels are at 1.350 and 1.355 [13] - The strategy suggests shorting near 1.346 or 1.345 with a profit target of 30-50 points and a stop-loss around 1.352 [13] Group 7: GBP/JPY Market Dynamics - The GBP/JPY market showed a corrective trend with a slight increase during the U.S. session, reaching resistance at approximately 196.3, before retreating to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level [16] - The market remains in a bullish pattern despite the recent pullback [16] Group 8: Key Levels and Trading Recommendations for GBP/JPY - Resistance levels are at 197 and 196.4, while support levels are at 195 and 194.4 [18] - The recommendation is to buy on dips around 195.7 and 195.4 with a profit target of 40-60 points and a stop-loss near 195 [18]

Group 1 - The current spot gold price is hovering around $3183.50 per ounce, having dropped over 2% on Wednesday, reaching a low of $3167.94, the lowest since April 10 [1] - The decline in gold prices is attributed to rising optimism regarding trade, which has boosted risk appetite among investors, leading them to withdraw from the gold market [1] - Short-term outlook suggests that trade optimism and a strengthening dollar may continue to pressure gold prices, with technical indicators showing that downward risks have not been fully released [1] Group 2 - The current market is undergoing a downward ABC adjustment wave, with the A wave from $3500 to $3201 and the B wave from $3201 to $3435, currently in the C wave downtrend [2] - Key support levels to watch for the C wave decline are between $3163 and $3135, with the next Fibonacci retracement level at $3163 coinciding with a previous support level [4] - Short-term analysis indicates a bearish trend with MACD showing a death cross and increasing downward momentum, suggesting caution against chasing further declines [4]

Core Viewpoint - The recent U.S. inflation data has altered market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, reducing concerns about interest rate hikes and enhancing the appeal of gold as a safe-haven asset [3]. Fundamental Analysis - U.S. inflation data: The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for April rose by 0.2% month-on-month, lower than the expected 0.3%, with a year-on-year increase of 2.3%, marking the lowest level since February 2021. This has led to a shift in market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, supporting gold prices [3]. - Trump's statements add market uncertainty: Following the CPI report, Trump pressured Powell to lower interest rates and claimed that Saudi Arabia would invest $1 trillion in the U.S. His calls for rate cuts align with market expectations, further enhancing the attractiveness of gold amid geopolitical uncertainties [3]. - Monetary policy expectations: Weaker inflation data has strengthened market belief in the Federal Reserve's capacity for monetary policy adjustments, increasing expectations for rate cuts. This is likely to lower the opportunity cost of holding gold, attracting more funds into the gold market and supporting price increases [3]. Technical Analysis - Gold prices exhibited significant volatility, ultimately closing higher after experiencing two dips followed by recoveries. The 5-day and 10-day moving averages have formed a death cross and are trending downward, creating resistance levels at approximately 3275 and 3300, which may limit upward movement [5]. - Key support levels are identified at 3208/3207, which is crucial as it aligns with the previous low and an important support line. If this support is breached, the market outlook may shift to a bearish perspective, with 3150 as the next critical support level [7]. - Resistance levels to monitor include 3265, 3275, and 3290/3293, with further attention on 3323 and 3350 if a strong upward trend occurs [7].