Core Viewpoint - The gold market experienced fluctuations with a slight opening increase, reaching a high of 4634/4635 before retreating, indicating a potential short-term correction while maintaining a long-term optimistic outlook due to factors like interest rate cuts and geopolitical tensions [1][2][3]. Fundamental Analysis - Inflation and Interest Rate Expectations: The US December CPI and core CPI data were lower than expected, reinforcing market bets on two interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026. However, the lower inflation also suggests economic cooling, which diminishes gold's appeal as an inflation hedge, leading to profit-taking [2]. - Geopolitical Support: Tensions from the Trump administration's investigation into the Federal Reserve's independence and threats of tariffs on Iran's trade partners have heightened demand for safe-haven assets, providing underlying support for gold prices despite the strength of the dollar [2]. Key Focus for Today - The US Supreme Court will rule on the legality of Trump's tariffs, and several economic indicators, including retail sales and PPI data, will be released. These factors are expected to influence the dollar's movement and gold price volatility [3]. - Overall, while gold faces short-term correction pressure, long-term factors such as the interest rate cycle and geopolitical dynamics support its status as a safe-haven asset, with a positive outlook for 2026 [3]. Technical Analysis - Daily Level: Gold's price action on Tuesday ended with a bearish candle after a series of gains, indicating a potential pause in the upward trend. The 5-day moving average at 4550 is crucial for support; a drop below this level could signal further correction risks [4]. - Four-Hour Level: The price structure remains focused on the upward channel formed since 4274, with key support at 4570 and resistance between 4636-4640. A breakout above these levels could lead to further upward movement, while a drop below 4550 would necessitate caution regarding support levels [6]. Summary of Resistance and Support Levels - Resistance levels to watch: 4635/4640, 4662, and 4689/4690 [6]. - Support levels to monitor: 4570, 4550, 4521, and 4500/4494 [6].

Core Viewpoint - The analysis indicates a bullish trend in the market, with key resistance and support levels identified, particularly focusing on the significance of the 4018 and 4156 price points as critical thresholds for future movements [1][2]. Group 1: Market Analysis - The market has confirmed a strong support level at 4018, transitioning from a historical resistance point, indicating a shift from "testing" to "confirmation" of the trend [1]. - The next target price is projected at 4156, calculated using the Fibonacci extension method, suggesting a potential upward movement if the market stabilizes above 4018 [1]. - The analysis highlights a "trend vacuum" zone before reaching 4156, suggesting limited resistance in this range, which could facilitate further upward movement [1]. Group 2: Trading Strategy - A disciplined trading approach is recommended, focusing on managing emotions through support levels and maintaining positions as long as the upward trend remains intact [3]. - Specific stop-loss strategies are outlined for different categories of stocks, emphasizing the importance of adhering to these rules to protect profits during market fluctuations [3]. - The analysis encourages a focus on the main sectors of non-ferrous metals and technology hardware, suggesting a dual approach to capitalize on market movements [2][3].

Group 1: Fundamental Analysis - The core drivers for the rise in gold prices include the initiation of a rate-cutting cycle by the Federal Reserve, leading to a decline in the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield for the first time since 2020, which reduces the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold [2] - Geopolitical tensions, particularly the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, have heightened global uncertainty, reinforcing gold's status as a safe-haven asset and attracting investor inflows [2] - Central banks worldwide, with the exception of Russia, continue to increase their gold reserves to diversify holdings and hedge against inflation and geopolitical risks, while significant capital flows into gold ETFs provide ample market liquidity [2] Group 2: Price Adjustment and Market Dynamics - The anticipated price correction in precious metals by the end of 2025 is viewed as a short-term technical adjustment rather than the end of a bull market, driven by increased margin requirements at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, leading to profit-taking by traders [3] - Despite the selling pressure, fundamental factors such as reluctance from miners to sell and ongoing central bank purchases support the market, indicating limited selling pressure and that speculative gains have been absorbed [3] - The structural bull market for precious metals is expected to continue, supported by central bank buying, miner accumulation, speculative interest, potential geopolitical risks, and further easing by the Federal Reserve [3] Group 3: Technical Analysis - On the daily chart, gold prices showed volatility with a high of 4374 and a low of 4274, indicating a consolidation phase, with the 20-day moving average providing support around the 4325-4320 range [4] - The four-hour analysis indicates that gold's recent price action from 3886 to 4245 represents a first wave up, followed by a second wave correction, with the current upward movement potentially being the third wave, targeting a high of 4550 [7] - Key support levels to monitor include 4303-4300, with 4274 being a critical level for confirming a potential fourth wave adjustment, while resistance levels are identified at 4375 and 4400 [7]

Core Viewpoint - The analysis indicates that both Bitcoin and Ethereum are experiencing limited downward movement, with specific price targets set for short positions, while also highlighting the importance of technical analysis in understanding market trends [1][5]. Group 1: Bitcoin Analysis - The recent price drop for Bitcoin started from $107,499 and reached a low of $80,602, indicating significant market fear and the need for confidence to drive a recovery [2]. - A strong resistance level for Bitcoin is identified at $88,214, derived from Fibonacci retracement analysis, with the last significant drop's starting point at $93,130 [2][5]. - The current market sentiment suggests that Bitcoin has limited room to fall further, with indicators showing potential for a rebound if it can establish a new low [5]. Group 2: Ethereum Analysis - Ethereum's price analysis shows a strong resistance level at $2,894, with a top at $3,063 and a bottom at $2,621, indicating a different volatility pattern compared to Bitcoin [4]. - The recent price action for Ethereum, which includes a rapid drop followed by a new high, adds complexity to short positions, creating a cautious environment for traders [4]. - The strategy for Ethereum remains focused on maintaining a short position unless the price can break and hold above $2,894 [5]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Strategy - The overall market is expected to experience significant volatility, with both upward and downward movements anticipated, particularly for Bitcoin [6]. - The primary strategy remains to favor short positions while selectively engaging in long positions, emphasizing the importance of timely profit-taking [6]. - The analysis suggests that traders should focus on key price levels and avoid holding positions for extended periods without clear signals [6].

Core Viewpoint - The gold market experienced fluctuations with a slight decline followed by a rebound, indicating a lack of strong upward momentum despite recent gains [1][3]. Fundamental Analysis - The Federal Reserve's meeting minutes revealed a hawkish stance, with the probability of a rate cut in December dropping significantly to 32.8%, with some institutions estimating it as low as 27%. There was a notable division among committee members, with a 10:2 vote against rate cuts to prevent entrenched inflation [2]. - The U.S. government shutdown has delayed the release of non-farm payroll data for October and November, leading to a more cautious approach from the Federal Reserve ahead of the December meeting due to the lack of key employment data [2]. - Former President Trump pressured Fed Chair Powell to lower interest rates, but the Fed's commitment to its independence has made rate cuts more challenging [2]. - Key economic data to watch includes the September non-farm report, initial jobless claims, and the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index, among others [2]. Technical Analysis - On the daily chart, gold prices showed a rebound after a dip, but the overall trend lacks a strong upward direction. Key support is at 3998, while resistance is noted at 4132/4133 [3][5]. - The four-hour chart indicates that gold is in a corrective phase, with the current price action suggesting a C-wave adjustment. The recent price movements are categorized into sub-waves, with the potential for further upward movement if the price breaks above 4132/4133 [5][6]. - The recent drop to 4055 followed by a strong rebound suggests that the C-2-b wave may have completed, with the current rise potentially indicating the start of the C-2-c wave. Key levels to monitor are 4132/4133 for resistance and 4055 for support [6][7].

Core Viewpoint - The recent increase in gold prices is primarily driven by expectations surrounding the U.S. government funding bill and economic data indicating a slowdown in the U.S. economy, which enhances gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [2][3]. Fundamental Analysis - Key drivers for gold's rise include the anticipated end of the U.S. government shutdown, with the House of Representatives moving towards a final vote on a funding bill, and President Trump indicating he will sign it. This has led to market expectations that upcoming economic data will confirm economic weakness in the U.S., further increasing gold's attractiveness [2]. - Economic indicators show weakness, with the ADP weekly employment report indicating a reduction of an average of 11,250 jobs per week in the private sector, reinforcing expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut, with a 65% probability of a 25 basis point cut in December [2]. - The yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury bond has fallen to 4.059%, reducing the opportunity cost of holding gold, coupled with economic uncertainty, leading to increased investment in precious metals [3]. - Future focus areas include the final voting results and signing progress of the U.S. government funding bill, the release of delayed economic data, particularly employment and inflation reports, and signals from Federal Reserve officials regarding interest rate cuts [3][4][5]. Technical Analysis - On the daily chart, the gold market has shown a strong upward trend, achieving four consecutive days of gains, indicating increasing bullish sentiment [6]. - Technical indicators reveal a strong short-term trend, with the 5-day and 10-day moving averages forming a golden cross, suggesting the stability and continuation of the upward trend. The 5-day moving average is currently acting as a strong support level [6]. - On the four-hour chart, the current market is in the C-wave of a corrective structure, with expectations of a five-wave push within this C-wave. Monitoring the momentum and completion of this wave structure is crucial for future positioning [8]. - Key resistance levels to watch include 4211/4212, with potential further resistance at 4238 and 4275/4276. Support levels to monitor are 4168, 4155-4140, and 4120 [9].

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - London gold is currently trading above $4125, with a price of $4128.55 per ounce, reflecting a 0.07% increase, and has seen a high of $4144.99 and a low of $4098.29 during the session [1] - The short-term outlook for London gold appears to be leaning towards a volatile trading pattern [1] Group 2: Employment Market Insights - Recent data indicates a clear picture of a weakening job market, contrasting sharply with previous expectations of sustained strength [2] - The ADP report shows that, as of October 25, 2025, U.S. private employers averaged weekly layoffs of 11,250, highlighting the impact of recent government shutdowns on employment data [2] - The October non-farm payroll report revealed only 150,000 new jobs added, falling short of market expectations [2] - Economic slowdown signals have been accumulating, with the Federal Reserve maintaining a hawkish stance through multiple rate hikes to combat inflation [2] - Signs of economic weakness began to emerge in late summer and early fall of 2025, with manufacturing and services PMI entering contraction territory and consumer spending growth slowing [2] - A series of weak labor data starting in October has shifted market sentiment towards expectations of Federal Reserve policy easing [2] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December 2025 has surged to the 67%-70% range, a significant increase from previous forecasts [2] Group 3: Technical Analysis of Gold Prices - The 4070-4075 range is identified as a key Fibonacci retracement level and a critical support area for the current week [3] - The 4145 area is being tested repeatedly, which is close to previous high points of 4155-4161; a breakout after adjustment could lead to further upward movement towards 4165 and the 4188 level [3]

Group 1 - The market is currently in a phase of low-volume fluctuations and slow bullish consolidation, with the Shanghai index performing stronger than the Shenzhen index [1] - The Sci-Tech Innovation Board's adjustment is nearing its end, with expectations for a high-low switch [1] - The early trading session saw a divergence in the three major indices, with over 3,000 stocks rising, particularly in sectors like cultivated diamonds and photovoltaic equipment [1] Group 2 - Gold has a target level of 4018, which has been tested multiple times but has not yet been successfully breached; the key levels to watch are 4025 for a breakout and 3986 for a potential breakdown [1] - Market volume showed no significant change in the afternoon, and the sustainability of various sectors remains low [1] - The active investment direction is focused on new energy and resource chains, while defensive sectors are rising against the trend, complicating style switching [1] Group 3 - The market failed to break through the previous high of 4025, forming a potential double top on the hourly chart, indicating a need for caution regarding a pullback to the 144-hour moving average at 3911 [1] - Investment decisions should be centered around the critical levels of 3980 and 4025, emphasizing a cautious approach [1] - The overall market trend is mixed, with positive indicators such as intact weekly and monthly trends, but negative factors like insufficient volume and difficulty in breaking key levels [3]

Group 1: Market Overview - The gold market is currently experiencing a fluctuating pattern with alternating bullish and bearish candles, indicating a "downward test followed by recovery" trend [1] - The U.S. government shutdown continues to create record delays in key economic data releases, with consumer confidence dropping to a three-year low [2][4] - The Federal Reserve shows significant internal divisions regarding monetary policy, with market attention on the potential for interest rate cuts in December [2][4] Group 2: Technical Analysis - Gold is trading in a range around $4,000, influenced by safe-haven demand, central bank purchases, and fluctuations in the U.S. dollar [3] - The price has not broken below the key support level of $3,886 or above the resistance level of $4,046, maintaining a range-bound movement [5] - Key levels to watch include the resistance at $4,046 and support at $3,928 and $3,886, which will significantly impact future price direction [7][9]

Group 1 - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell hinted at potential interest rate cuts, leading to a surge in international risk aversion and gold prices stabilizing above $3,500 [1] - Following Powell's comments, gold prices rose significantly from a low of $3,311 on August 20 to a peak of $3,546, marking an increase of over 7% [1] - The market anticipates a 25 basis point rate cut in the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting on September 17, indicating a recognition of recession risks in the macroeconomic environment [1] Group 2 - U.S. stock indices experienced a gap down due to a court ruling that may invalidate Trump's tariff policies, which could severely impact economic confidence [2] - The upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll report for August is expected to show weak job growth, with a forecast of 75,000 new jobs, which could negatively affect the U.S. dollar index [2] - If non-farm employment falls below 100,000, it typically results in a bearish impact on the dollar index, regardless of whether the latest figure exceeds previous expectations [2] Group 3 - From a technical perspective, the recent upward movement has broken the converging triangle structure established since April 22, with significant price action confirming the breakout [4] - The current price is fluctuating around $3,530, approaching a resistance zone of $3,546 to $3,568, which may encounter strong selling pressure [4]