金价在美联储降息预期与地缘政治风险推动下，于4150美元下方企稳，创逾一周新高 俄罗斯于周二（2025年11月25日）凌晨对乌克兰首都基辅发动新一轮袭击，目标锁定居民楼及能源基础设施。此次攻击发生在美国与乌克兰代表周末在瑞士 就美方斡旋的结束近四年战争计划进行谈判之后。 白宫表示，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普仍对达成协议抱有希望和乐观态度，但他警告称任何进展仍存在不确定性。据乌克兰官员透露，美国提出的俄乌和平计 划现包含19项条款，且未对乌克兰军队规模设置严格限制。 随着市场对美联储12月降息的预期升温，黄金连续第二日吸引买盘。持续的地缘政治不确定性为这种避险商品提供了额外支撑。 风险偏好回升及美元走强限制金价涨幅，市场静候美国宏观数据。 黄金（XAU/USD）虽触及一个半周高点，但未能延续日内温和涨势，周二欧洲时段仍维持小幅上涨态势。美联储关键委员近期表态后，交易员加码押注12 月再度降息，持续为无收益的黄金提供支撑。此外，俄乌冲突升级及中东新冲突引发的地缘政治不确定性，成为支撑避险商品的另一因素。 与此同时，美元指数维持在5月下旬以来的高位附近——尽管市场预期美联储将采取鸽派立场，美元上周仍触及该水平，对金价构 ...

上周五，黄金（XAU/USD）在欧洲交易时段前延续了日内下跌走势，并在收盘前触及约每盎司4,030-4,029美元的日低。市场对美国联邦储备系统（Fed）12 月再次降息的预期下降，加上非农就业数据推迟发布，成为美元走强的主要推动力。美元自五月底以来持续上涨，对无收益的黄金形成明显压力。 在上行方面，若价格稳步突破4,100美元并获得确认，有望测试4,152-4,155美元区域，并可能靠近4,200美元整数关口。 不过，美国政府历时最长的停摆引发的经济增长放缓担忧，以及持续的国际地缘政治不确定性，为黄金提供了一定支撑。股票市场整体偏弱的走势，也显示 投资者对风险资产的信心有所减弱，从而增加了对黄金等避险资产的关注。 近期市场关注点还包括美国制造业PMI、消费者信心指数修正以及美联储官员的讲话，这些数据和信息可能为美元和黄金提供新的动力。整体来看，金价短 期内仍受美元走势和全球风险情绪的双重影响，投资者对避险和波动的关注仍将持续。 美国最新发布的非农就业报告显示，9月份新增就业岗位119,000个，高于市场预期的50,000个。平均时薪同比增长保持在3.8%，略高于预期的3.7%。尽管失 业率从4.3%上升至4 ...

Group 1 - The market is experiencing fluctuations due to weak employment data strengthening interest rate cut expectations, while progress on government funding stabilizes the dollar [1][4] - The ADP report indicates a reduction of approximately 11,000 jobs per week in the private sector, suggesting a slowdown in the labor market and increasing the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December [1][4] - The Senate has passed a temporary funding bill, which is expected to be voted on by the House, potentially leading to the reopening of the government and the resumption of delayed official data [1][3] Group 2 - Gold prices have risen to around $4,140, a two-week high, driven by lower interest rate expectations reducing the holding costs of gold [2][4] - The dollar index has rebounded to the 99.50–99.55 range following the Senate's approval of the funding bill, despite concerns about potential economic slowdown reflected in upcoming data [3][4] - The Australian dollar and British pound are under pressure due to respective economic factors, with the Australian dollar hovering around 0.6520 and the British pound declining to approximately 1.3130 [3][4] Group 3 - Investors are advised to monitor the progress of government reopening and speeches from Federal Reserve officials, as these will be key catalysts for market direction [4] - The upcoming votes in the House and the performance of official data post-reopening will directly impact market risk appetite [3][4]

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in gold prices are influenced by the cautious stance of the Federal Reserve and the easing of US-China trade relations, leading to a short-term bullish outlook for gold despite recent declines [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve lowered the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75%–4% and plans to end its balance sheet reduction on December 1 [2]. - Jerome Powell's cautious remarks indicated that further rate cuts in December are not guaranteed, emphasizing the need to manage persistent inflation risks [2][3]. - Market expectations for a December rate cut dropped from 90% to 63% following Powell's statements, reflecting a shift in sentiment among investors [3]. Group 2: Gold Market Analysis - Gold prices are currently trading around $3,997.52 per ounce, with a recent low of $3,962.33, marking the lowest level since early October [1]. - Technical analysis shows that gold remains in the upper half of its annual upward channel, with key support levels at $3,970, $3,900, and $3,850-$3,820 [4]. - Resistance levels are identified at $4,090, $4,130, and the psychological level of $4,200, with a potential new upward trend if prices can stabilize above $4,100 [4]. Group 3: Future Influences - Upcoming US employment and inflation data, along with Federal Reserve officials' comments and geopolitical factors, are expected to significantly impact gold prices [5]. - Investors are closely monitoring these signals for indications of inflationary pressures easing or signs of economic slowdown as they seek new investment opportunities [5].

Group 1: XAU/USD Analysis - The core viewpoint indicates that gold prices experienced fluctuations, breaking through 3783.6 before retreating, with a daily range of 493 points and a small bullish close [3] - Current early morning prices have breached the 3791 to 3798.6 range, approaching the 3800 mark, supported by geopolitical risks, Federal Reserve policy shifts, and de-dollarization trends [3] - Key resistance levels are identified at 3810/3815, with support at 3758/3735, suggesting a strategy of selling at 3810/3815 and buying on dips to 3760 [4] Group 2: EUR/USD Analysis - The analysis notes a loss on a short position due to the price reaching 1.1707, with a daily close showing a small bullish trend influenced by rising French debt and EU trade proposals [6] - Resistance levels are set at 1.180/1.184, while support is at 1.161/1.166, with a recommendation to buy at 1.169/1.170 [8] Group 3: GBP/USD Analysis - The GBP/USD analysis highlights a loss on a short position as the price reached 1.3412, with attention on inflation impacts and US-UK tariff negotiations [10] - Resistance levels are identified at 1.350/1.355 and support at 1.332/1.337, with a buy recommendation at 1.337/1.338 [12] Group 4: GBP/JPY Analysis - The GBP/JPY market saw upward movement with a high of 200.5 before retreating, maintaining an upward trend above key support levels [14] - Resistance is noted at 201.3/200.7, with support at 199.1/198.6, and a buy recommendation on dips to 199.8-199.9 [15] Group 5: Fundamental Reminders - Key economic indicators to watch include UK mortgage approvals, Eurozone economic sentiment, US existing home sales, and comments from Federal Reserve officials [17]

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have risen above $3,400, reaching a new monthly high, driven by a combination of dovish Federal Reserve expectations and escalating geopolitical tensions [1][3]. Group 1: Market Trends - Gold (XAU/USD) has maintained a bullish momentum, climbing to its highest level since late July, surpassing $3,400 [2]. - The upcoming U.S. macroeconomic data, including business activity and employment figures, may influence market perceptions of Federal Reserve policy and drive short-term movements in XAU/USD [2][5]. Group 2: Economic Influences - The U.S. dollar (USD) experienced a rebound after a significant drop, but concerns regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve have limited its ability to sustain gains [3]. - The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) revised the second quarter GDP growth rate from an initial estimate of 3% to 3.3%, providing some support to the dollar [4]. - The annual inflation rate in the U.S. remained at 2.6% in July, with the core PCE price index rising to 2.9%, aligning with analyst expectations [4]. Group 3: Upcoming Data and Expectations - Investors are focusing on upcoming U.S. PMI and NFP data, with expectations for a slight improvement in the manufacturing PMI for August [5]. - The market currently anticipates an 85% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, indicating limited downside for the dollar even if the NFP data is disappointing [5]. - If NFP growth exceeds expectations and the unemployment rate remains at 4.2%, market participants may lean towards two rate cuts this year, potentially leading to a bearish trend for XAU/USD [6].

Core Viewpoint - The current behavior in the gold market suggests improving demand and the potential completion of a short-term pullback, indicating a bullish trend may be developing [1][5]. Group 1: Market Behavior - Today's market shows signs of a bullish hammer candlestick pattern, which, while not definitive, adds to the bullish evidence for gold [2]. - A breakout above the recent high of $3,377 would confirm a multi-week bullish breakout, positioning gold towards the upper line of the pennant pattern [4]. Group 2: Price Movements - Gold recently triggered an upside breakout from a 16-day price range, reaching a new high of $3,377 before experiencing a drop to a six-day low of $3,310 [3]. - The establishment of a higher weekly high and a higher low indicates improving demand, with a significant signal expected above the lower swing high at $3,451 [5]. Group 3: Future Projections - An initial upside target for gold is set at $3,578, as indicated by a rising ABCD pattern, suggesting potential for further price increases [5].

Group 1: Gold (XAU/USD) - The overall trend for gold showed a rise followed by a pullback, with a daily range of approximately 591 points and a closing bearish candle with upper and lower shadows [1] - Federal Reserve officials emphasized a cautious policy stance, coupled with uncertainties surrounding Trump's trade policies, leading to increased volatility in gold prices [1] - The current strategy suggests a focus on buying on dips, with a bullish outlook continuing as the price broke through the consolidation range [1] Group 2: Euro/USD (EUR/USD) - The euro was impacted by lower-than-expected CPI in the Eurozone and rising expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut, resulting in a daily range of about 90 points and a bearish closing [7] - The European Central Bank's rate cut expectations have increased, while strong U.S. job vacancy data has put pressure on the euro [7] - The current price is consolidating around 1.1364, with future movements dependent on policy developments [7] Group 3: GBP/USD - The British pound experienced fluctuations influenced by the Bank of England Governor's remarks and U.S. data, with a daily range of approximately 110 points and a bullish closing [12] - The current price is around 1.356, and attention is required on UK government policies and Federal Reserve officials' statements [12] - The strategy suggests holding long positions around 1.350, with a target profit of 30-50 points [12] Group 4: GBP/JPY - The GBP/JPY pair saw a decline during the Asian session followed by a rebound in the U.S. session, with a daily range of about 206 points and a strong bullish closing [17] - The strategy focuses on buying on dips, particularly near Fibonacci support levels [17] - The current recommendation is to buy in batches at 194.1 and 193.8, with a total profit target of 40-60 points [19]

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The gold market experienced a pullback near the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, leading to a decline but remained above the support level of 3284, resulting in a trading range of approximately 486 points with a long upper shadow on the daily candle [1] - The market sentiment improved due to the U.S. Federal Court ruling on Trump's tariffs, reducing concerns over international trade, which in turn diminished the safe-haven demand for gold as the dollar rebounded [1] - Today's opening saw gold prices drop over $30, reaching a low of approximately 3245, with a technical outlook indicating a primary focus on short positions following a break below the head and shoulders neckline [1] Group 2: Key Levels and Trading Recommendations - Key resistance levels are identified at 3325 and 3285, while support levels are at 3245 and 3200 [3] - The strategy suggests shorting near 3285 with a profit target of 70-100 points and a stop-loss around 3295 [3] Group 3: Euro/USD Market Insights - Eurozone economic data showed weakness, with France's Q1 GDP confirming a slight growth of 0.1% and consumer confidence in April falling below expectations, while Germany saw an unexpected increase in unemployment [6] - European Central Bank officials hinted at potential further rate cuts after the June monetary policy meeting, reinforcing expectations for monetary easing [6] - The EUR/USD pair fluctuated down to around 1.128, with a daily range of approximately 61 points and a candle showing small upper and lower shadows [6] Group 4: Key Levels and Trading Recommendations for Euro/USD - Support levels are at 1.113 and 1.118, while resistance levels are at 1.131 and 1.136 [8] - The recommendation is to enter short positions around 1.126 or 1.125 with a profit target of 30-50 points and a stop-loss at approximately 1.130 [8] Group 5: GBP/USD Market Overview - Reports indicate that long-term UK government bond yields may slightly decline in the coming months due to market expectations that the Bank of England will halt active quantitative tightening from October [11] - The GBP/USD pair traded down to around 1.345, with a daily range of approximately 71 points and a candle showing small upper and lower shadows [11] Group 6: Key Levels and Trading Recommendations for GBP/USD - Key support levels are at 1.332 and 1.336, while resistance levels are at 1.350 and 1.355 [13] - The strategy suggests shorting near 1.346 or 1.345 with a profit target of 30-50 points and a stop-loss around 1.352 [13] Group 7: GBP/JPY Market Dynamics - The GBP/JPY market showed a corrective trend with a slight increase during the U.S. session, reaching resistance at approximately 196.3, before retreating to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level [16] - The market remains in a bullish pattern despite the recent pullback [16] Group 8: Key Levels and Trading Recommendations for GBP/JPY - Resistance levels are at 197 and 196.4, while support levels are at 195 and 194.4 [18] - The recommendation is to buy on dips around 195.7 and 195.4 with a profit target of 40-60 points and a stop-loss near 195 [18]