【大河财立方 记者 杨萨】11月20日，中国人民银行授权全国银行间同业拆借中心公布，2025年11月贷 款市场报价利率（LPR）为：1年期LPR为3.0%，5年期以上LPR为3.5%。以上LPR在下一次发布LPR之 前有效。自今年5月下调后，LPR报价已连续6个月保持不变。 王青表示，6月以来LPR报价一直按兵不动，背后的根本原因是受年初以来出口超预期、国内新质生产 力领域较快发展等推动，宏观经济走势稳中偏强，逆周期调节需求相应下降，货币政策保持较强定力。 关于下阶段的货币政策思路，央行公布《2025年第三季度中国货币政策执行报告》中提到，进一步完善 利率调控框架，强化央行政策利率引导，完善市场化利率形成传导机制，发挥市场利率定价自律机制作 用，加强利率政策执行和监督，降低银行负债成本，推动社会综合融资成本下降。 王青表示，往后看，受内外部多重因素影响，近期经济增长动能有所回落，其中，10月国内投资、消 费、工业生产等宏观数据下行势头引发关注，出口增速由正转负。着眼于稳定今年四季度和明年一季度 经济运行，稳增长政策有望结束观察期，进入发力阶段。预计在财政及准财政政策推出"两个5000亿″措 施之后，年底前货币 ...

Economic Growth Perspective - In Q3, the actual GDP growth rate was 4.8%, while the nominal GDP growth rate was 3.7%[5] - Industrial output growth was 6.2%, while demand growth (including retail, fixed investment, and exports) was 2.98%, resulting in a growth rate difference of 3.2%[5] - Export growth was 7.1%, compared to a combined growth of 1.92% for retail and fixed investment, leading to a difference of 5.18%[5] Consumer Spending Insights - The combined growth rate for travel and policy-driven replacement consumption was 8.6%, while essential consumption categories like food and clothing saw a growth rate of only 0.3%[5] - The consumer spending tendency in Q3 was 68.1%, down from 68.9% in the same period last year, indicating a decline in consumer confidence[48] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment growth was -6.6% in Q3, a significant drop from the previous value of 1.8%[43] - Equipment investment grew by 14%, contrasting with a -4.1% decline in construction investment, highlighting a shift towards new economic sectors[15] Market Expectations and Policy Recommendations - To stabilize market expectations, it is crucial to maintain confidence in long-term economic transformation and short-term price recovery, with a target Q4 growth rate of around 4.5% to meet the annual goal[4] - The need for further reduction in mortgage rates is emphasized, as the cumulative decline in second-hand housing prices was 3.93% while mortgage rates only decreased by 3 basis points[8] Employment and Labor Market - The total number of rural laborers working outside their home areas reached 19.187 million, with a year-on-year growth of 0.9%[52] - The urban survey unemployment rate was 5.2%, showing a slight decrease from the previous month[56]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the necessity of strengthening expectations to enhance economic growth momentum and stabilize investor sentiment amid a diversified economic structure and weak visible demand [2][3][9]. Economic Perspective - Economic growth shows significant differentiation, with actual GDP growth at 4.8% and nominal GDP growth at 3.7% in Q3. Industrial output growth was 6.2%, while demand growth was only 2.98%, resulting in a 3.2% growth differential [5][15]. - External demand is outperforming internal demand, with export growth at 7.1% compared to a combined growth of 1.92% for retail and fixed asset investment, leading to a 5.18% growth gap [5][15]. - Within consumer spending, travel and policy-driven replacement chains are growing at 8.6%, while essential categories like food and clothing are stagnating at 0.3% [5][15]. - Fixed asset investment shows a stark contrast, with construction investment declining by 4.1% while equipment investment surged by 14% [6][15]. Investment Perspective - Visible demand is under pressure, with a -1.4% growth rate in visible demand indicators such as retail sales and real estate sales, while invisible demand grew by 5.7% [7][21]. - The leading indicator for profitability, old M1, faces challenges due to high base effects, complicating recovery expectations [8][21]. Need for Stabilizing Expectations - To enhance economic growth momentum and stabilize investor expectations, policy measures need to be intensified. Recent policy tools and incremental funding deployments have been observed [9][26]. - The core of stabilizing expectations lies in housing prices and stock prices, with long-term confidence in economic transformation and short-term goals requiring a Q4 growth rate of around 4.5% to meet annual targets [3][27]. Detailed Economic Data Analysis - In Q3, GDP growth was 4.8%, down from 5.2%, with nominal GDP growth at 3.7%. The PPI averaged -2.9% and CPI at -0.2% [35][39]. - The contribution of final consumption expenditure to GDP growth was 56.6%, while capital formation contributed 18.9% [40]. - Consumer spending growth was 3.4%, lower than income growth of 4.5%, indicating a decline in spending inclination compared to the previous year [41]. - The industrial capacity utilization rate was 74.6%, down 0.5 percentage points from the previous year [44]. - The number of migrant workers increased by 0.9% year-on-year, with average monthly income growth at 2.4% [48]. September Economic Data Analysis - In September, industrial output growth was 6.5%, while retail sales growth was 3.0%, indicating a mixed demand environment [52][58]. - Real estate sales area declined by 10.5%, and fixed asset investment growth remained weak at -7.1% [62][67]. - The stock market's low volatility has increased the relative attractiveness of equities compared to bonds, suggesting a need for continued policy measures to stabilize stock prices [10][33].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The report indicates that the inflation in the US in September met market expectations, clearing the last obstacle for the Fed to restart the interest - rate cut process in September. The expectation of Fed's interest - rate cut has pushed up the US stock market, which has partially weakened the safe - haven demand for gold. However, the expectation of improved industrial demand brought by the Fed's interest - rate cut has led to the upward movement of precious metals. Gold has started a new upward trend, and this trend may continue until the spring and summer of 2026. Investors are advised to maintain a long - bias trading strategy, and short - hedgers can appropriately reduce their hedging ratios. Silver, with its strong industrial attributes, will also rise following the gold price and may even outperform gold in terms of gains due to its high volatility [4][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Sections 3.1 Precious Metals Market Conditions and Outlook - **Intraday Market**: London gold is trading strongly above $3600 per ounce, and London silver has broken through the $42 per ounce mark. The gold price had a sideways shock from late April to August to digest the high - valuation pressure. With the Fed's interest - rate cut, the gold price broke through the resistance in early September and started a new upward trend [4]. - **Domestic Precious Metals Market**: The Shanghai Gold Index closed at 837.07, up 0.45%; the Shanghai Silver Index closed at 10,066, up 2.41%; Gold T + D closed at 830.30, up 0.51%; Silver T + D closed at 10,039, up 2.73% [5]. - **Medium - term Market**: From late April to early August, London gold fluctuated widely between $3100 - $3500 per ounce to digest the high - valuation pressure. Since August, the US employment and inflation situation has supported the Fed to restart the interest - rate cut process. Geopolitical risks also provide safe - haven demand for gold. From late August to early September, various factors jointly pushed the gold price to break through the $3500 per ounce mark, starting a new upward trend that may last until the spring and summer of 2026 [5]. 3.2 Main Macroeconomic Events/Data - **US Economic Data**: In August, the US consumer price had the largest increase in seven months, mainly due to rising housing and food costs. However, the number of initial jobless claims surged last week, and the Fed is still expected to cut interest rates next Wednesday. The CPI rose 0.4% month - on - month and 2.9% year - on - year in August, both being the largest increases since January. The core CPI rose 0.3% month - on - month and 3.1% year - on - year in August, consistent with the July increase. The number of initial jobless claims in the week ending September 6 increased by 27,000, reaching 263,000 after seasonal adjustment, the highest since October 2021 [17]. - **European Central Bank**: The ECB maintained interest rates as expected and was optimistic about growth and inflation, which curbed the market's expectation of further borrowing - cost cuts. ECB President Lagarde said that economic risks were "more balanced" than in June, but the inflation outlook was still more uncertain than usual. The ECB currently expects the inflation rate to be 1.9% in 2027, lower than the 2.0% forecast in June, and the core inflation rate to be 1.8%, also lower than the 2% target [17]. - **Trade - related News**: The US will pressure the G7 to raise tariffs on India and China for buying Russian oil. The US Commerce Secretary said that the US could reach a trade agreement with India if India stops buying Russian oil [18]. - **US Treasury Budget**: In August, the US budget deficit decreased by $35 billion or 9% year - on - year to $345 billion, as Trump's tariffs boosted net tariff revenues by about $22.5 billion. The cumulative deficit for the fiscal year as of August increased by $76 billion or 4% to $1.973 trillion, the third - highest in history [18].

Economic Growth Overview - In August, the industrial added value increased by 5.2% year-on-year, down from 5.7% in July, with a cumulative growth of 6.2% from January to August[1] - Retail sales of consumer goods grew by 3.4% year-on-year in August, a decrease from 3.7% in July, with a cumulative growth of 4.6% from January to August[1] - Fixed asset investment saw a cumulative year-on-year growth of 0.5% from January to August, down from 1.6% in July[1] Industrial Production Insights - The slowdown in industrial production is attributed to weakened external demand and insufficient domestic demand, with August's industrial added value growth down by 0.5 percentage points[3][4] - Manufacturing output growth was 5.7% in August, a decline of 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, primarily impacting overall industrial growth[4] - Export delivery value for industrial enterprises fell by 0.4% year-on-year in August, marking the first negative growth since 2024[4] Consumer Spending Trends - The slowdown in retail sales is influenced by last year's consumption policies and declining food prices, with August's retail sales growth at 3.6%, down 0.4 percentage points from July[6] - Optional consumer goods retail sales showed improvement, likely due to the wealth effect from rising stock markets, with categories like clothing and cosmetics seeing increased sales growth[8] Investment Dynamics - Fixed asset investment growth for the first eight months was 0.5%, reflecting a decline of 1.1 percentage points from previous values, with all major investment sectors experiencing downturns[9][12] - Manufacturing investment growth was 5.1%, down 1.1 percentage points, while high-tech manufacturing sectors like computer and aerospace equipment saw significant growth rates of 12.6% and 28.0% respectively[10][11] Future Economic Outlook - Economic growth momentum is expected to remain weak in September, with industrial and retail growth potentially declining further, while investment growth may stabilize[2][15] - Anticipated macroeconomic policies in Q4 may include increased fiscal measures and interest rate cuts to counteract external demand slowdowns and support the real estate market[15]

Economic Indicators - August 2025 domestic CPI is expected to be approximately 0.1% month-on-month, with a year-on-year decline to -0.3%[3] - July 2025 PPI is projected to increase by about 0.4% month-on-month, with a significant year-on-year recovery to -2.5%[3] - Industrial added value is anticipated to rebound slightly to 6.0% year-on-year in August 2025[3] - Retail sales of consumer goods are expected to rise to 4.5% year-on-year in August 2025[3] Investment and Trade - Fixed asset investment is forecasted to continue declining, reaching a cumulative year-on-year growth of 1.3%[3] - Exports in dollar terms are projected to decrease to around 6.0% year-on-year[3] - Trade surplus for August 2025 is estimated at 992 million USD, up from 982 million USD in the previous period[4] Financial Metrics - Monthly increase in credit is expected to be 10,500 million CNY, a significant improvement from a decrease of 500 million CNY previously[4] - Total social financing is projected to increase by 26,000 million CNY for the month, compared to 11,320 million CNY previously[4] - M2 year-on-year growth rate is expected to remain stable at 8.8%[4]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the **Chinese economy** and its current challenges, particularly focusing on the economic performance in July 2025 and projections for the remainder of the year [1][21]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Economic Slowdown**: In July, domestic growth momentum weakened significantly, with retail sales growth slowing to **3.7%** year-on-year, below market expectations [1][5]. 2. **Investment Decline**: Overall fixed asset investment decreased by **5.2%** year-on-year, with both infrastructure and manufacturing investments declining [1][10]. 3. **Real Estate Market**: Real estate activities continued to decline, with sales down **7.8%** year-on-year and new construction area down **15.4%** [6][26]. 4. **Industrial Production**: Industrial production growth fell to **5.7%** year-on-year, indicating a slowdown in manufacturing output [1][12]. 5. **Export Recovery**: Despite a decline in exports to the US, overall export growth improved to **7.2%** year-on-year, supported by lower base effects [1][11]. 6. **Inflation Metrics**: The Consumer Price Index (CPI) growth rate fell to **0%**, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) dropped by **3.6%** year-on-year [1][17]. 7. **Credit Market**: July saw a contraction in new RMB loans for the first time in 20 years, with a reduction of **500 billion RMB**, indicating weak credit demand [1][18]. Additional Important Insights 1. **Policy Measures**: The government has introduced several support measures, including childcare subsidies and consumer loan interest subsidies, but the scale of these measures is expected to be moderate [3][32]. 2. **Future Challenges**: The economic outlook remains cautious, with expectations of continued challenges in the real estate sector and consumer spending due to weak income growth and consumer confidence [2][27]. 3. **Trade Relations**: Ongoing US-China trade negotiations are expected to prolong tariff uncertainties, which may negatively impact export growth in the coming months [22][24]. 4. **Government Stimulus**: Potential fiscal stimulus measures may be introduced in Q3 or Q4, depending on economic data trends, with a baseline GDP growth forecast of **4.7%** for 2025 [3][32]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the current state of the Chinese economy, the challenges it faces, and the government's response to these challenges.

Economic Performance Overview - 31 provinces have released their economic "report cards" for the first half of the year, with Guangdong and Jiangsu leading the "6 trillion yuan club" [1][2] - Guangdong achieved a GDP of 6.87 trillion yuan, while Jiangsu followed closely with 6.7 trillion yuan; Shandong exceeded 5 trillion yuan [4] - 20 provinces reported GDP growth rates above the national level of 5.3% [7] Growth Dynamics - Advanced manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing sectors showed rapid growth, with value-added increasing by 5.9% and 6.0% respectively, accounting for 55.4% and 33.0% of industrial value-added [11] - Emerging industries are developing well, indicating a trend towards structural adjustment and high-quality development [11][17] Regional Economic Trends - The central and western provinces have emerged as new engines of national economic growth, benefiting from industrial upgrades and major project constructions [14][17] - The economic reports highlight a clear regional economic differentiation, with central and western regions performing notably well [17] Future Economic Strategies - Provinces are focusing on three key areas for the second half of the year: expanding domestic demand, developing new productive forces, and stabilizing foreign trade [20] - Various regions are implementing measures to boost consumption, such as cultural and sports events that drive revenue growth [23] Trade and Market Diversification - Industry experts emphasize the need to stabilize the foreign trade base and support enterprises in exploring diversified international markets [25]

Core Viewpoint - The global foreign exchange market is at a critical juncture, influenced by divergent monetary policies of major central banks, ongoing geopolitical tensions, and mixed macroeconomic data, challenging the dominance of the US dollar while the euro and yen struggle within their respective economic cycles [1]. Group 1: US Dollar Index (DXY) - The DXY is currently oscillating around 97.551, reflecting the market's reliance on the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance while harboring deep concerns about the US economic growth outlook [2]. - The market anticipates the Fed will maintain a tight monetary policy to combat persistent inflation, with rate hike expectations cooling but nearly no anticipation for rate cuts this year, providing solid support for the dollar [2][3]. - Recent economic data presents a mixed picture, with strong labor market indicators supporting the Fed's tightening policy, while weak manufacturing and housing data indicate cooling in interest-sensitive sectors, creating a dilemma for the dollar's movement [3]. Group 2: Euro/USD (EUR/USD) - The EUR/USD struggles around 1.17410, reflecting the European Central Bank's (ECB) difficult balancing act between combating inflation and concerns over economic recession [4]. - The ECB's decision to maintain the deposit rate at 2.00% is not surprising, but President Lagarde's "data-dependent" approach suggests a strategy of "buying time" amid complex challenges [5]. - The risk of fragmentation within the Eurozone, indicated by the widening yield spread between German and Italian bonds, poses a significant threat to the euro's upward potential unless a strong economic recovery occurs [6]. Group 3: Dollar/Yen (USD/JPY) - The USD/JPY trades around 147.058, amid speculation regarding the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) potential exit from its long-standing negative interest rate and yield curve control policies [7]. - The BoJ faces increasing pressure to normalize its policy as domestic inflation stabilizes above 2%, with market expectations for action in the coming quarters, which could reshape global capital flows [7]. - The timing of the BoJ's policy shift remains uncertain, as premature tightening could jeopardize economic recovery and impact Japan's substantial government debt market [8]. Group 4: Other Currencies and Strategic Outlook - The forex market is driven by three main themes: divergence in monetary policies among the Fed, ECB, and BoJ; the momentum of global economic growth; and evolving geopolitical and trade relationships [10]. - The GBP/USD reflects the UK's "stagflation" dilemma, while the AUD/USD's outlook is closely tied to China's economic recovery, and the USD/CAD is significantly influenced by oil price fluctuations [11]. - A core-satellite strategy is recommended, focusing on the dollar while allocating positions in euros and yen based on specific drivers, emphasizing the importance of data analysis and central bank communications [12].

Economic Overview - The Federal Reserve's "Beige Book" indicates a slight increase in economic activity from late May to early July, but high uncertainty persists, leading businesses to remain cautious [1] - The U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) remained flat in June, with a year-on-year increase of 2.3%, marking the lowest annual growth since September of the previous year [1] Inflation and Price Trends - The UK's Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose to 3.6% in June, up from 3.4% in May, the highest level since January 2024 [3] - The core CPI in the UK also increased from 3.5% in May to 3.7% in June, driven by rising prices in fuel, air travel, and food [3] Central Bank Activities - The World Gold Council reports that 19 out of 36 surveyed central banks are purchasing gold directly from local miners using their own currencies, indicating a growing appetite for gold [2] - Four additional central banks are considering adopting this practice, reflecting a shift in gold procurement strategies [2] Market Dynamics - The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 231.49 points to close at 44,254.78, a gain of 0.53% [4] - The S&P 500 index increased by 19.94 points to 6,263.7, up 0.32%, while the Nasdaq Composite gained 52.69 points to close at 20,730.49, a rise of 0.25% [4] Commodity Prices - COMEX gold futures increased by 0.52% to $3,354.20 per ounce, while silver futures rose by 0.04% to $38.13 per ounce [5] - Light crude oil futures for August delivery fell by $0.14 to $66.38 per barrel, a decrease of 0.21% [5] Currency Exchange Rates - The U.S. dollar index decreased by 0.23%, closing at 98.392 [5] - The onshore Chinese yuan closed at 7.1776 against the U.S. dollar, down 42 basis points from the previous trading day [6]