Macroeconomic Perspective - The contribution of the real estate sector to GDP has significantly decreased, with its share dropping from 16.9% in 2016 to 9.6% in 2024, a decline of 7.3 percentage points[9] - Real estate investment recorded a negative growth of -9.9% in Q1 2025, slightly improving from -10.6% in 2024, with its impact on economic growth reducing from -0.9% to -0.7%[12] - By the end of 2024, residential investment's share of GDP is expected to fall to 5.2%, nearing the lower bound of rigid demand[17] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply-demand relationship in the real estate market is improving due to ongoing adjustments in the supply side, with residential sales area showing a reduced decline of -2.6% in the first five months of 2025 compared to -14.1% for the entire year of 2024[18] - The inventory of unsold residential properties has improved, with a year-on-year growth of 6.5% in the first five months of 2025, down from 16.2% in 2024[18] - The average annual new housing demand in China is projected to be between 730 million to 890 million square meters from 2025 to 2030[20] Microeconomic Perspective - The credit risk of bond-issuing real estate companies has largely been cleared, with only a few companies like Vanke and Evergrande showing relatively high credit spreads[22] - As of June 30, 2025, there are 139 non-state-owned real estate companies with a total credit bond stock of approximately 1.57 trillion yuan, with 94 companies having a total of 1.17 trillion yuan in bonds that have not defaulted[22] - Vanke has received significant financial support from its shareholder, Shenzhen Metro Group, totaling 231.69 billion yuan in 2025, which covers 88% of its bond repayment needs for the year[23]

证券研究报告 | 2025年06月16日 宏观经济宏观月报 5 月增长动能从出口与投资转向消费 2025 年 6 月 16 日国家统计局发布 2025 年 5 月份经济增长数据，重点关注 的经济增长类数据如下： 1、5 月份，规模以上工业增加值同比增长 5.8%，比上月回落 0.3 个百分点； 2、5 月份，社会消费品零售总额 41326 亿元，同比增长 6.4%，比上月加快 1.3 个百分点； 3、5 月份，全国固定资产投资（不含农户）191947 亿元，同比增长 3.7%， 比上月回落 0.3 个百分点；扣除房地产开发投资，全国固定资产投资增长 7.7%； 4、5 月份，进出口总额 38098 亿元，同比增长 2.7%。其中，出口 22767 亿 元，增长 6.3%；进口 15331 亿元，下降 2.1%； 5、5 月份，全国城镇调查失业率为 5.0%，较上月回落 0.1 个百分点，持平 上年同月。 5 月国内经济增速约 5.0%，持平全年经济增速目标值。 整体来看，5 月中国经济延续稳健增长态势，其中消费增速明显上升，很好 地对冲了投资和出口增速的回落。 基于生产法测算的月度 GDP 同比增速在 5 月 ...

经济研究·宏观快评 | 证券分析师： | 李智能 | 0755-22940456 | lizn@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980516060001 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 田地 | 0755-81982035 | tiandi2@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980524090003 | | 证券分析师： | 董德志 | 021-60933158 | dongdz@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980513100001 | 事项： 2025 年 5 月国内宏观经济数据将在 2025 年 6 月陆续公布，国信证券经济研究所提前给出 2025 年 5 月主要 经济数据的预测值。 以下是 2025 年 5 月主要经济数据预测： 证券研究报告 | 2025年06月03日 结论：5 月国内经济增长动能保持稳健态势。预计 5 月国内 CPI 环比约为-0.4%，CPI 同比回落至-0.4%；5 月 PPI 环比或约为-0.3%，PPI 同比继续回落至-3.2%；预计 5 月工业增加值同比小幅回落至 5.5 ...