abc Global Research 2025 年 08 月 18 日 中国经济透视 7月国内增长动能明显走弱，未来仍面临更多挑 战 7月国内增长动能明显走弱，尽管出口增长有所回升 7月国内增长动能明显走弱，低于市场预期。社零同比增速放缓至3.7%，以 旧换新补贴覆盖的消费品同比增速有所放缓。整体固定资产投资同比下 降5.2%，大幅弱于预期，基建和制造业投资均有所下降，部分受极端天气 影响。房地产活动进一步下行，且房价继续环比下跌；工业生产同比增速回 落至5.7%。另一方面，尽管对美出口降幅扩大，但整体出口同比增速回升 至 7.2%。CPI 同比增速小幅回落至0%，而 PPI 继续同比大幅下跌 3.6%。 新增人民币贷款收缩，为二十年来首次出现单月新增贷款收缩，但政府债券 发行强劲继续推动社融信贷同比增速小幅上升至9%。 预计2025年年内仍将面临更多挑战 7月增长走弱可能意味着此前部分对经济有利的支撑因素开始走弱或转向。 如果房地产去库存没有显著进展，我们仍然预计下半年房地产活动下行持 续。由于居民收入增长和消费者信心较弱，政府并未出台大规模新增刺激政 策，且去年9月以来消费品以旧换新补贴启动带来的高基数 ...

Economic Performance Overview - 31 provinces have released their economic "report cards" for the first half of the year, with Guangdong and Jiangsu leading the "6 trillion yuan club" [1][2] - Guangdong achieved a GDP of 6.87 trillion yuan, while Jiangsu followed closely with 6.7 trillion yuan; Shandong exceeded 5 trillion yuan [4] - 20 provinces reported GDP growth rates above the national level of 5.3% [7] Growth Dynamics - Advanced manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing sectors showed rapid growth, with value-added increasing by 5.9% and 6.0% respectively, accounting for 55.4% and 33.0% of industrial value-added [11] - Emerging industries are developing well, indicating a trend towards structural adjustment and high-quality development [11][17] Regional Economic Trends - The central and western provinces have emerged as new engines of national economic growth, benefiting from industrial upgrades and major project constructions [14][17] - The economic reports highlight a clear regional economic differentiation, with central and western regions performing notably well [17] Future Economic Strategies - Provinces are focusing on three key areas for the second half of the year: expanding domestic demand, developing new productive forces, and stabilizing foreign trade [20] - Various regions are implementing measures to boost consumption, such as cultural and sports events that drive revenue growth [23] Trade and Market Diversification - Industry experts emphasize the need to stabilize the foreign trade base and support enterprises in exploring diversified international markets [25]

Core Viewpoint - The global foreign exchange market is at a critical juncture, influenced by divergent monetary policies of major central banks, ongoing geopolitical tensions, and mixed macroeconomic data, challenging the dominance of the US dollar while the euro and yen struggle within their respective economic cycles [1]. Group 1: US Dollar Index (DXY) - The DXY is currently oscillating around 97.551, reflecting the market's reliance on the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance while harboring deep concerns about the US economic growth outlook [2]. - The market anticipates the Fed will maintain a tight monetary policy to combat persistent inflation, with rate hike expectations cooling but nearly no anticipation for rate cuts this year, providing solid support for the dollar [2][3]. - Recent economic data presents a mixed picture, with strong labor market indicators supporting the Fed's tightening policy, while weak manufacturing and housing data indicate cooling in interest-sensitive sectors, creating a dilemma for the dollar's movement [3]. Group 2: Euro/USD (EUR/USD) - The EUR/USD struggles around 1.17410, reflecting the European Central Bank's (ECB) difficult balancing act between combating inflation and concerns over economic recession [4]. - The ECB's decision to maintain the deposit rate at 2.00% is not surprising, but President Lagarde's "data-dependent" approach suggests a strategy of "buying time" amid complex challenges [5]. - The risk of fragmentation within the Eurozone, indicated by the widening yield spread between German and Italian bonds, poses a significant threat to the euro's upward potential unless a strong economic recovery occurs [6]. Group 3: Dollar/Yen (USD/JPY) - The USD/JPY trades around 147.058, amid speculation regarding the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) potential exit from its long-standing negative interest rate and yield curve control policies [7]. - The BoJ faces increasing pressure to normalize its policy as domestic inflation stabilizes above 2%, with market expectations for action in the coming quarters, which could reshape global capital flows [7]. - The timing of the BoJ's policy shift remains uncertain, as premature tightening could jeopardize economic recovery and impact Japan's substantial government debt market [8]. Group 4: Other Currencies and Strategic Outlook - The forex market is driven by three main themes: divergence in monetary policies among the Fed, ECB, and BoJ; the momentum of global economic growth; and evolving geopolitical and trade relationships [10]. - The GBP/USD reflects the UK's "stagflation" dilemma, while the AUD/USD's outlook is closely tied to China's economic recovery, and the USD/CAD is significantly influenced by oil price fluctuations [11]. - A core-satellite strategy is recommended, focusing on the dollar while allocating positions in euros and yen based on specific drivers, emphasizing the importance of data analysis and central bank communications [12].

Economic Overview - The Federal Reserve's "Beige Book" indicates a slight increase in economic activity from late May to early July, but high uncertainty persists, leading businesses to remain cautious [1] - The U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) remained flat in June, with a year-on-year increase of 2.3%, marking the lowest annual growth since September of the previous year [1] Inflation and Price Trends - The UK's Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose to 3.6% in June, up from 3.4% in May, the highest level since January 2024 [3] - The core CPI in the UK also increased from 3.5% in May to 3.7% in June, driven by rising prices in fuel, air travel, and food [3] Central Bank Activities - The World Gold Council reports that 19 out of 36 surveyed central banks are purchasing gold directly from local miners using their own currencies, indicating a growing appetite for gold [2] - Four additional central banks are considering adopting this practice, reflecting a shift in gold procurement strategies [2] Market Dynamics - The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 231.49 points to close at 44,254.78, a gain of 0.53% [4] - The S&P 500 index increased by 19.94 points to 6,263.7, up 0.32%, while the Nasdaq Composite gained 52.69 points to close at 20,730.49, a rise of 0.25% [4] Commodity Prices - COMEX gold futures increased by 0.52% to $3,354.20 per ounce, while silver futures rose by 0.04% to $38.13 per ounce [5] - Light crude oil futures for August delivery fell by $0.14 to $66.38 per barrel, a decrease of 0.21% [5] Currency Exchange Rates - The U.S. dollar index decreased by 0.23%, closing at 98.392 [5] - The onshore Chinese yuan closed at 7.1776 against the U.S. dollar, down 42 basis points from the previous trading day [6]

Economic Indicators - May 2025 domestic CPI is expected to decrease by 0.4% month-on-month and year-on-year[3] - May 2025 PPI is projected to decline by 0.3% month-on-month and 3.2% year-on-year[3] - Industrial added value is anticipated to slightly drop to 5.5% year-on-year in May 2025[3] - Retail sales of consumer goods are expected to decrease to 5.0% year-on-year in May 2025[3] - Fixed asset investment is forecasted to remain stable at 4.0% year-on-year[3] Trade and Financing - Exports in May 2025 are expected to rise by approximately 8.5% year-on-year[3] - Imports are projected to increase by 4.5% year-on-year[4] - Trade surplus is estimated at $971 million in May 2025[4] - Monthly increase in credit is expected to be 11,000 million yuan[4] - Total social financing is projected to increase by 22,000 million yuan in May 2025[4]

Economic Growth - The Guosen High-Frequency Macro Diffusion Index A turned negative, indicating a decline in economic momentum[1] - Index B decreased, with investment and real estate sectors showing a downturn while consumer sector remained stable[1] - Seasonal analysis shows Index B typically rises by an average of 0.17 weekly post-Spring Festival, but this week it fell by 0.43, underperforming historical averages[1] Price Trends - Food prices are expected to decline by approximately -1.0% month-on-month in May, while non-food prices are projected to decrease by -0.2%, leading to an overall CPI decline of -0.4%[2] - The PPI is anticipated to drop by -0.2% month-on-month, with a year-on-year decrease of -3.1%[2] Market Predictions - Current domestic interest rates are low, while the Shanghai Composite Index is high, suggesting a potential rise in the ten-year government bond yield and a decline in the Shanghai Composite Index next week[1][19] - The predicted ten-year government bond yield for the week of May 30, 2025, is 2.28%, while the Shanghai Composite Index is forecasted to be 3,099.44[20]