Market Overview - Gold prices experienced a rebound after hitting a low of $3320, supported by buying interest despite a decline in safe-haven demand due to a trade agreement between the US and Europe [1] - The price of gold closed at $3336.49, marking a nearly 1% drop over the previous week, which was the third consecutive week of decline [1] - The market is anticipating significant events this week, including international trade developments, central bank interest rate decisions, and key economic data such as the US PCE [1] Technical Analysis - Weekly analysis indicates that gold peaked at $3438.9 before retreating to around $3325, forming a long upper shadow on the candlestick chart, with bearish indicators such as TRIX and MACD suggesting a downward trend [3] - Daily analysis shows gold trading below the mid-band, with KDJ indicators indicating a bearish crossover and MACD lines near the zero axis, reinforcing a bearish outlook [3] - Hourly charts reveal a downward opening of the Bollinger Bands, with KDJ indicators showing a potential short-term bullish crossover, suggesting a slight upward movement may occur, with resistance at $3345 [3] Trading Recommendations - For conservative traders, a sell position is recommended around $3355-$3358 with a stop loss at $3363 and a target profit of $3330-$3325 [5] - For aggressive traders, a buy position is suggested in the range of $3328-$3331 with a stop loss at $3323 and a target profit of $3345-$3350 [5]

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in gold prices to the 3350 level is attributed to two main factors: optimistic expectations regarding international trade and strong economic data [1][3][5]. Group 1: International Trade Impact - Recent trade negotiations among major economies, particularly between China and the U.S., have alleviated concerns about escalating trade tensions, leading to a more optimistic market sentiment [3][4]. - The recovery of China's economy has contributed to positive global economic recovery expectations, resulting in increased risk appetite among investors [3][4]. - As market sentiment becomes more optimistic, funds tend to flow towards risk assets rather than safe-haven assets like gold, contributing to the price decline [3][5]. Group 2: Economic Data Performance - Strong economic data from major economies, including positive U.S. non-farm payroll figures and signs of recovery in manufacturing and services, have bolstered confidence in global economic recovery [4][5]. - Economic performance in other regions, such as China's robust export and manufacturing data and the EU's gradual economic recovery, has further enhanced market risk appetite, diminishing gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [4][5]. - Despite strong economic indicators, gold maintains some support due to ongoing uncertainties in the global economy, such as unresolved supply chain issues and geopolitical risks [5][6]. Group 3: Investor Psychology - Investor sentiment plays a crucial role in gold price fluctuations, with a shift towards risk assets occurring as confidence in economic recovery grows [5][6]. - The perception of gold as a safe-haven asset diminishes when economic recovery signals emerge, leading to a withdrawal of funds from gold [5][6]. - The interplay of market sentiment and economic data is reflected in the recent price adjustments of gold, indicating a temporary market reaction rather than a loss of value [6][7]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The future trajectory of gold prices will be influenced by the interplay of trade dynamics, economic data, investor sentiment, and policy expectations [7]. - Despite the current price retreat, gold's safe-haven attributes remain relevant due to ongoing geopolitical risks and uneven global economic recovery [7].

Market Performance - US stock indices showed mixed results, with the Dow Jones down 0.04%, while the Nasdaq rose 0.38% and the S&P 500 increased by 0.14%, both reaching new highs [1] - Major tech stocks mostly saw gains, with Google up over 2% and Amazon rising more than 1% [1] - Chinese concept stocks had varied performances, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index down 0.28%, while stocks like Huya surged 16%, NIO rose nearly 3%, and Pinduoduo increased over 2%. However, Li Auto fell over 4% and JD.com dropped more than 1% [1] International Trade and Policy - The international trade situation is under scrutiny, as White House Press Secretary Karine Leavitt indicated that President Trump may issue more tariff letters before August 1. She suggested that more trade agreements could be reached before this deadline [1] - Fitch Ratings expressed concerns over US credit outlook, downgrading the outlook for 25% of US industries to "deteriorating" due to increased uncertainty, slowing economic growth, and expectations of prolonged high interest rates [1] Commodity Prices - International gold prices increased, with COMEX gold futures rising by 1.55% to $3410.3 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures up by 2.02% to $39.24 per ounce [2]

Report Information - Report Title: Rapeseed Products Market Weekly Report [2] - Report Date: July 11, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Xu Fangli [2] Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - For rapeseed oil, short - term participation is recommended, and the market's short - term volatility may intensify due to factors such as weather in Canada, MPOB report, US EPA hearing results, and domestic supply - demand situation [9][8] - For rapeseed meal, short - term participation is also recommended, and attention should be paid to Sino - US and Sino - Canadian economic and trade relations. The market may maintain a volatile trend in the short term influenced by US soybean conditions and domestic supply - demand factors [12][13] Summary by Section 1. Weekly Summary Rapeseed Oil - Strategy: Short - term participation [9] - Market Review: The rapeseed oil futures closed down this week, with the 09 contract closing at 9607 yuan/ton, a decrease of 168 yuan/ton from the previous week [10] - Outlook: Canada's rapeseed growth is in the "weather - dominated" stage. Rainfall in Canada may ease drought. The MPOB report is bearish, but July 1 - 10 export data provides some support. In China, it's the off - season for oil consumption, supply is ample, and inventory pressure is high, but output pressure weakens, and future imports may be affected [10] Rapeseed Meal - Strategy: Short - term participation, focus on Sino - US and Sino - Canadian economic and trade relations [12] - Market Review: The rapeseed meal futures closed up this week, with the 09 contract closing at 2633 yuan/ton, an increase of 36 yuan/ton from the previous week [13] - Outlook: US soybean conditions are good, and domestic supply is abundant due to imported soybeans. However, the peak season for aquatic product breeding boosts demand, but soybean meal substitution weakens the demand for rapeseed meal. The market is waiting for Sino - US trade negotiation news [13] 2. Futures and Spot Market Futures Price and Position - Rapeseed oil futures closed down, total positions were 266,478 lots, a decrease of 57,490 lots from last week. Rapeseed meal futures closed up, total positions were 555,041 lots, a decrease of 9517 lots from the previous week [19] - The top 20 net long positions in rapeseed oil futures decreased from +24,789 to +15,351, and the top 20 net short positions in rapeseed meal futures decreased from - 4491 to - 1970 [26] Futures Warehouse Receipts - Rapeseed oil registered warehouse receipts were 3510 lots, and rapeseed meal registered warehouse receipts were 13,550 lots [32] Spot Price and Basis - In Jiangsu, the spot price of rapeseed oil was 9580 yuan/ton, down from last week, and the basis was +141 yuan/ton. In Jiangsu Nantong, the spot price of rapeseed meal was 2450 yuan/ton, up slightly from last week, and the basis was - 183 yuan/ton [38][44] Futures Monthly Spread - Rapeseed oil 9 - 1 spread was +66 yuan/ton, and rapeseed meal 9 - 1 spread was +310 yuan/ton, both at medium levels in recent years [50] Futures - Spot Ratio - The ratio of rapeseed oil and meal 09 contracts was 3.585, and the average spot price ratio was 3.91 [53] Spread between Rapeseed Oil and Other Oils/Meals - Rapeseed - soybean oil 09 contract spread was 1453 yuan/ton (narrowed this week), rapeseed - palm oil 09 contract spread was 757 yuan/ton (significantly narrowed this week). The soybean meal - rapeseed meal 09 contract spread was 343 yuan/ton, and the spot spread was 290 yuan/ton as of Thursday [62][68] 3. Industrial Chain Rapeseed - Supply: As of July 4, 2025, the total rapeseed inventory in oil mills was 200,000 tons, a 33.33% increase. Estimated arrivals in June, July, and August 2025 were 260,000, 130,000, and 485,000 tons respectively. As of July 10, the import and pressing profit was +481 yuan/ton. In the 27th week of 2025, coastal oil mills' rapeseed pressing volume was 35,000 tons, a decrease of 21,500 tons from last week, and the operating rate was 8.56%. In May 2025, rapeseed imports were 335,500 tons, a 26.12% year - on - year decrease [74][78][82][86] Rapeseed Oil - Supply: As of the end of the 27th week of 2025, domestic imported and pressed rapeseed oil inventory was 859,000 tons, a 2.88% decrease. In May 2025, rapeseed oil imports were 111,200 tons, a 20.31% year - on - year decrease [91] - Demand: As of March 31, 2025, the monthly output of edible vegetable oil was 4,404,000 tons, and as of May 31, catering revenue was 457.82 billion yuan. As of the end of the 27th week of 2025, the contract volume of domestic imported and pressed rapeseed oil was 146,000 tons, an 8.60% decrease [95][99] Rapeseed Meal - Supply: As of the end of the 27th week of 2025, domestic imported and pressed rapeseed meal inventory was 5000 tons, a 41.86% decrease. In May 2025, rapeseed meal imports were 194,700 tons, a 36.06% year - on - year decrease [103][107] - Demand: As of May 31, 2025, the monthly output of feed was 2,762,100 tons [111] 4. Options Market - As of July 11, the implied volatility of rapeseed meal options was 18.85%, a 1.63% increase from last week, at a slightly high level compared to the 20 - day, 40 - day, and 60 - day historical volatility of the underlying [114]

Investment Ratings - The steel industry is rated as "Neutral" while the non-ferrous metals industry is rated as "Positive" [3] - Specific companies such as Luoyang Molybdenum (603993), Zhongjin Gold (600489), Shandong Gold (600547), Zijin Mining (601899), and China Aluminum (601600) are rated as "Buy" [3] Core Insights - The steel market is experiencing a seasonal downturn, with expectations of declining demand for construction materials and sheet steel, leading to a potential inventory accumulation cycle [1][18] - Copper prices are supported by tight supply at the mine level, but the overall demand remains weak during the off-season [1][41] - Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term due to domestic low inventory supporting prices, despite some downstream sectors showing signs of weakness [1][50] - Gold prices are bolstered by international trade tensions, expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts, and geopolitical factors [2][54] - The lithium market faces oversupply pressures, with significant inventory levels expected to keep prices weak [2][57] Industry Summaries Steel Industry - Demand has weakened, with a notable decrease in terminal procurement volumes, down 14.62% week-on-week and 6.41% year-on-year as of June 6 [19] - Steel production from major varieties was 8.8038 million tons, a slight decrease of 0.05% from the previous week [21] - The total steel inventory increased by 0.26% week-on-week, but decreased by 20.97% year-on-year [27] Copper Industry - The copper market is influenced by U.S.-China trade tensions, with the first meeting of trade negotiations expected to impact copper prices significantly [41] - As of June 6, LME copper prices were $9,800 per ton, reflecting a 1.79% increase from the previous week [48] Aluminum Industry - The aluminum sector is facing pressure from rising costs due to higher alumina prices, while some downstream demand is weakening [50] - As of June 6, LME aluminum prices were $2,400 per ton, down 0.55% from the previous week [51] Gold Industry - Gold prices are supported by various macroeconomic factors, including rising U.S. debt and geopolitical tensions [2][54] - As of June 6, COMEX gold closed at $3,331 per ounce, up 0.54% from the previous week [54] Lithium Industry - The lithium market is characterized by significant inventory pressure, with prices expected to remain weak due to oversupply [57] - As of June 6, battery-grade lithium carbonate prices were 60,700 yuan per ton, down 1.30% from the previous week [58] Rare Earth and Minor Metals - Prices for light rare earths have shown an increase, with praseodymium-neodymium oxide priced at 449,000 yuan per ton as of June 6, up 2.51% [68]

Group 1 - Gold prices have seen a slight increase, currently trading around $3317.62 per ounce, supported by safe-haven buying due to unrest in Los Angeles [1] - Last week, gold prices experienced volatility, initially rising nearly 3% to around $3380, before fluctuating due to poor U.S. economic data and optimistic international trade news [1] - The U.S. dollar rose by 0.47% to 99.20, influenced by better-than-expected employment growth in May, which may delay potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [3] Group 2 - The technical outlook for gold shows it is trading within a range, with current prices near $3300, indicating market indecision [4] - Key resistance and support levels for gold are identified at $3330 and $3285 respectively, with potential movements towards $3355 or $3250 depending on market dynamics [4] - The interplay between expectations of the Federal Reserve's actions and global trade uncertainties is crucial for gold price movements [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the slight rebound of the US dollar is limiting the upward potential of gold prices, with spot gold trading around $3372.39 [1] - Investors are closely watching the upcoming US non-farm payroll report on June 6 for clues regarding the Federal Reserve's next actions, as this data is a key indicator of labor market health and will directly impact market expectations for Fed monetary policy [1] - A weaker employment report could increase expectations for interest rate cuts, providing stronger support for gold prices, while a surprisingly strong report may exert short-term pressure on gold prices, although overall safe-haven demand is expected to remain high [1] Group 2 - The technical analysis suggests that spot gold is expected to break through the resistance level of $3388 per ounce and rise towards $3408, indicating a fifth wave in a larger upward trend that began at $3245 [1] - Support is identified at $3355, with a potential drop below this level leading to prices falling within the range of $3322 to $3344, which would indicate a reversal of the upward trend since $3245 [2] - If gold prices break through $3408 per ounce, they could potentially rise to $3440 per ounce, with the daily chart showing a breakthrough of the resistance level at $3361 per ounce [2]

Core Viewpoint - The recent U.S. court ruling against Trump's tariffs has led to a significant rebound in gold prices, highlighting the volatility and sensitivity of the gold market to geopolitical and economic developments [3][4]. Group 1: Factors Influencing Gold Prices - The initial drop in gold prices was influenced by the U.S. International Trade Court's ruling on May 28, which prohibited the enforcement of several tariff orders from the Trump administration, leading to reduced demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [3]. - The release of the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes on May 29 indicated a hawkish monetary policy stance, which dampened interest rate cut expectations and reduced the appeal of gold as a non-yielding asset, causing further price declines [3][4]. - The subsequent reversal in gold prices was driven by the U.S. Federal Appeals Court temporarily halting the previous ruling on tariffs, reigniting concerns over international trade and increasing demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [3]. - Economic data released by the U.S. Commerce Department showed a contraction in GDP by 0.2% for Q1 2025, compared to a growth of 2.4% in the previous quarter, raising concerns about economic stability and leading to a decline in the U.S. dollar index by 0.51%, making gold more attractive [3][4]. Group 2: Technical Analysis and Market Outlook - The gold market is currently experiencing a consolidation phase within a triangular range, with short-term resistance at the 3340 level; a break above this level could signal a stronger upward trend [4]. - The closing price formed a bullish candlestick pattern, indicating that bullish momentum may be stronger than bearish pressure, suggesting potential for further upward movement [4]. - Technical indicators such as the MACD are showing signs of weakening momentum, while the KDJ indicator indicates a potential downward turn, suggesting a cautious approach in the near term [4].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the recent judicial ruling against former President Trump's global tariff policy has led to a decrease in market concerns regarding international trade, resulting in a drop in gold prices [1] - The Federal Reserve's cautious stance on interest rate cuts, as reflected in the May meeting minutes, suggests potential challenges with rising inflation and unemployment, which may further impact gold's safe-haven demand [1] - Gold prices have shown a significant decline, testing the support level around 3245, with traders advised to monitor the effectiveness of the 3210-3250 range as a critical support zone [3] Group 2 - Silver prices have experienced volatility influenced by industrial demand and macroeconomic factors, with a recommendation for short-term trading strategies focusing on buying on dips and selling on rebounds [5] - The recent price action in silver indicates a potential breakout above the resistance level of 33.45-33.5, but traders are advised to remain cautious of false breakouts [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates a significant decline in gold prices due to a ruling by the U.S. International Trade Court that deemed Trump's "Liberation Day" tariff policy as overreach, leading to reduced market concerns about international trade tensions [2][3] - Gold prices fell to a low of $3256.32 per ounce, marking a drop of over $30 and the lowest level since May 20, as optimism regarding trade agreements improved the outlook for the U.S. economy, thereby diminishing the safe-haven demand for gold [1][3] - The U.S. dollar index rose, surpassing the 100 mark and reaching a high of 100.19, reflecting a 0.3% increase, as market sentiment turned positive regarding trade agreements [3] Group 2 - Upcoming economic data releases, including U.S. GDP and PCE price index, are expected to influence market sentiment, with short-term bearish signals for gold prices emerging [4] - Goldman Sachs recommended increasing the allocation of gold in long-term investment portfolios due to rising risks associated with U.S. institutional credibility and ongoing central bank demand [4]