野村警告，日本财务省干预日元的游戏规则正在改变。市场波动的性质暗示，官方可能已经从口头警告升级为实质性的战术准备，干预风险显著 上升。 据追风交易台消息，野村Yujiro Goto团队在14日的报告中表示，尽管传统的干预触发信号尚未亮起，但投资者绝不应掉以轻心。本周三英国时段 美元/日元（USD/JPY）在毫无明显利好消息的情况下突然下跌，这极有可能是财务省进行了"利率检查"（Rate Check）。这种非正式的询问往往 是实际干预的前奏。 无风起浪：干预的前奏已响？ 如果今天美元/日元的突然下跌是由于利率检查，那么财务省可能处于更高的警戒级别。 虽然我们对此次下跌的起因没有强烈的看法，但如果这与'利率检查'有关，我们就需要警惕实际干预的到来。 野村特别提醒投资者回顾历史：2022年9月14日，财务省进行了"利率检查"，仅仅八天后的9月22日，日本政府便实施了规模达2.8382万亿日元 （约198亿美元）的实际干预。历史的韵脚正在押响。 别迷信"神田线"：自动驾驶模式已关闭 许多量化投资者还在盯着所谓的"神田线"（Kanda Line）——即之前市场总结的一套干预预警指标。然而，野村的数据显示，目前没有任何一 ...

Core Viewpoint - The global foreign exchange market is at a critical juncture, influenced by divergent monetary policies of major central banks, ongoing geopolitical tensions, and mixed macroeconomic data, challenging the dominance of the US dollar while the euro and yen struggle within their respective economic cycles [1]. Group 1: US Dollar Index (DXY) - The DXY is currently oscillating around 97.551, reflecting the market's reliance on the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance while harboring deep concerns about the US economic growth outlook [2]. - The market anticipates the Fed will maintain a tight monetary policy to combat persistent inflation, with rate hike expectations cooling but nearly no anticipation for rate cuts this year, providing solid support for the dollar [2][3]. - Recent economic data presents a mixed picture, with strong labor market indicators supporting the Fed's tightening policy, while weak manufacturing and housing data indicate cooling in interest-sensitive sectors, creating a dilemma for the dollar's movement [3]. Group 2: Euro/USD (EUR/USD) - The EUR/USD struggles around 1.17410, reflecting the European Central Bank's (ECB) difficult balancing act between combating inflation and concerns over economic recession [4]. - The ECB's decision to maintain the deposit rate at 2.00% is not surprising, but President Lagarde's "data-dependent" approach suggests a strategy of "buying time" amid complex challenges [5]. - The risk of fragmentation within the Eurozone, indicated by the widening yield spread between German and Italian bonds, poses a significant threat to the euro's upward potential unless a strong economic recovery occurs [6]. Group 3: Dollar/Yen (USD/JPY) - The USD/JPY trades around 147.058, amid speculation regarding the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) potential exit from its long-standing negative interest rate and yield curve control policies [7]. - The BoJ faces increasing pressure to normalize its policy as domestic inflation stabilizes above 2%, with market expectations for action in the coming quarters, which could reshape global capital flows [7]. - The timing of the BoJ's policy shift remains uncertain, as premature tightening could jeopardize economic recovery and impact Japan's substantial government debt market [8]. Group 4: Other Currencies and Strategic Outlook - The forex market is driven by three main themes: divergence in monetary policies among the Fed, ECB, and BoJ; the momentum of global economic growth; and evolving geopolitical and trade relationships [10]. - The GBP/USD reflects the UK's "stagflation" dilemma, while the AUD/USD's outlook is closely tied to China's economic recovery, and the USD/CAD is significantly influenced by oil price fluctuations [11]. - A core-satellite strategy is recommended, focusing on the dollar while allocating positions in euros and yen based on specific drivers, emphasizing the importance of data analysis and central bank communications [12].